Jump to content
Rotoworld.com Forums

Oscar Taveras - OF STL


crotchcrickets

Recommended Posts

So what do you project OT's WAR to be pro-rated for a full season now, next year and his prime?

For his rookie year, full-season - 2-3 WAR (because of the lack of full time AB's this year - so more like 1-1.5 when he does get called up), next year if they can make room, 3 WAR, and in his prime, 5+ WAR - which is pretty special (Miggy Cabrera's years are 6-7.5 in his prime, being bat-only, whereas Trout gets to 10 because of his all-star D added to the special bat).

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 925
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I realize that puts a greater obstacle with Allen Craig & Matt Holliday as the corner OF's, but until Taveras shows he can play 50-60 games straight healthy, there is little chance the Cards would sacrifice the D that Bourjos brings to the table. As a #8 hitter, sure he's a fantasy black hole, but the Cards care little about we FBB owners. From a pure baseball perspective, saving runs with D is just as valuable as creating runs with the bat.

You are probably right on St. Louis' assessment of the situation right now.

However, how many runs can Bourjos save per year over Taveras in CF? I would think the difference in runs created with the bat would be far greater. Taveras would have a lot of average AND power on Bourjos.

Taveras will probably play multiple OF positions to get his bat in the lineup sometime after the ASB.

Because Bourjos is an excellent baserunner and doesn't get caught much, he averages out as a slightly-better-than replacement level O player. His D makes him a 3-4 WAR player with that production - which is hard to be purely from the bat perspective.

http://www.fangraphs...-peter-bourjos/

Again, I say all the above believing Taveras is a special bat, and his bat will eventually shine - but remember that few rookies shine right away. When I look at the fact that the Cards also won't likely want to put a greater injury risk on Taveras and let him focus on playing a corner OF spot, I just don't see the same fit as in 2013, when all Taveras had to do was beat out Jay.

No doubt we'll still see him - but for those hoping for Jay to struggle, that isn't the key - Bourjos gets hurt, or Allen/Craig, then there's hope. Other than that, I think we see the midseason callup, and him spelling guys, and a lethal PH bat (starts 2-3 games a week, PH's 4 at best, barring injury). The way STL treated Matt Adams is a good example of their model (and yes, Taveras is special, but unless Holliday or Craig are injured, FT AB's seem murkier).

I have to admit I was expecting more in the stolen base department than Bourjos has offered in his MLB experience. Offensively he doesn't have much value. For some reason he doesn't use his speed (didn't really use it in the last 2 years on the Angels either). It's kind of perplexing really. I could see the argument for not using it batting in the 8th spot in front of the pitcher, but even in the AL he didn't really utilize it too much outside of 2011...and I'd contend that 22 stolen bases in 147 games played with his speed is disappointing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

So what do you project OT's WAR to be pro-rated for a full season now, next year and his prime?

For his rookie year, full-season - 2-3 WAR (because of the lack of full time AB's this year - so more like 1-1.5 when he does get called up), next year if they can make room, 3 WAR, and in his prime, 5+ WAR - which is pretty special (Miggy Cabrera's years are 6-7.5 in his prime, being bat-only, whereas Trout gets to 10 because of his all-star D added to the special bat).

Anything that uses UZR can't be taken too too seriously. The metric/logic behind the metric is flawed. I'm not saying Taveras will play CF as well as Bourjos or that defense doesn't matter, but UZR fluctuates way too much to be relied upon and therefore WAR has those fluctuations.

I haven't watched Bourjos field all that much to comment, but I would not draw conclusions just by looking at that metric without having watched the player play the field on a regular basis, if that's what you're doing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

So what do you project OT's WAR to be pro-rated for a full season now, next year and his prime?

For his rookie year, full-season - 2-3 WAR (because of the lack of full time AB's this year - so more like 1-1.5 when he does get called up), next year if they can make room, 3 WAR, and in his prime, 5+ WAR - which is pretty special (Miggy Cabrera's years are 6-7.5 in his prime, being bat-only, whereas Trout gets to 10 because of his all-star D added to the special bat).

Anything that uses UZR can't be taken too too seriously. The metric/logic behind the metric is flawed. I'm not saying Taveras will play CF as well as Bourjos or that defense doesn't matter, but UZR fluctuates way too much to be relied upon and therefore WAR has those fluctuations.

I haven't watched Bourjos field all that much to comment, but I would not draw conclusions just by looking at that metric without having watched the player play the field on a regular basis, if that's what you're doing.

UZR is a flawed metric, but watching him play, and by all scouting reports, Bourjos is an elite defender. Jay was reputed to be a plus defender, but in reality was mediocre at best.

Until better metrics are involved, I don't mind WAR - it's a start, because it's incorporating the concept that D matters (Trout being a 10 over Miggy as a 7+ is a concept I endorse in real-life).

Anyways, getting back to Taveras - as a corner OF, he's going to be special. But given the injuries and the Cards' very cautious approach on breaking rookies in, I trust the reasoning for putting caution on a huge 2014 type entry is clear. Long-term, the guy's a stud - but the situation unfortunately matters when it comes to present-year (along with rookie adjustments to mere mortals <Jose F & Trouts/Longorias of the world excluded>).

Link to post
Share on other sites

If Adams or Craig gets hurt in June and has to miss 4-6 weeks, it would be awesome to see OT up, assuming he continues to hit well now in the minors. It'd be really interesting to see how the Cards work around this depth with everyone healthy and OT already up and hitting fairly well. When push comes to shove, you'd think they have to stick with whomever is playing well. But of course this is all hypothetical. A fantasy baseball fanatic can only dream.

Also, in regards to UZR and WAR, there is something out there that's significantly more reliable than those fielding measurements. There's FIeld F/X, like Pitch F/X, but MLB is going to keep it proprietary and not make the data public for their own financial reasons. It's too bad. This article and the comments have some good insight to what Field F/X is and why it is withheld from the public:

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2014/02/spring-training-notes-the-pirates-have-a-program-similar-to-field-fx.html

Link to post
Share on other sites

So what do you project OT's WAR to be pro-rated for a full season now, next year and his prime?

For his rookie year, full-season - 2-3 WAR (because of the lack of full time AB's this year - so more like 1-1.5 when he does get called up), next year if they can make room, 3 WAR, and in his prime, 5+ WAR - which is pretty special (Miggy Cabrera's years are 6-7.5 in his prime, being bat-only, whereas Trout gets to 10 because of his all-star D added to the special bat).

Yeah looking at the CF's last year with 20 homer power I thought he most reminded me of Adam Jones but 2010/2011 Adam Jones with the 2.5 WAR both years. Adam Jones was 24 and 25 in that timeframe so if Oscar Taveras is only 21/22 and as good as AJ was at 24/25 his ceiling would be higher than AJ and he put up 4.2/4.3 WARs the last two years. Both of them are free swingers with the same kind of raw power (slight edge perhaps to AJ) but I think OT has even better contact rates and I think OT also has a better batted ball profile such that his OBP and SLG will be higher but will sit in the low 30s for homers in his prime like AJ.

I think PB is more of a 3 in terms of WAR. It's my opinion that a 2.5 offensive WAR is more valuable than a 3 defensive WAR. Reason being is that WAR is an individual stat but I think sparking an offense creates more team synergy/momentum and makes the opposing pitcher have to work harder to get through a line-up. With that being stated, I would probably do what STL hopefully plans to do and bring OT up after ASB and rotate OT through the OF and give him PH duties. IF OT becomes a true offensive juggernaut this year STL would have to find a way to get him in the lineup most days.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the issue (IMO) All the pieces in the Cards outfield "fit" currently. You have to have an elite defensive CF like Bourjos when you have Holliday & Craig at the corners. That's the reason why Bourjos is there in the first place. Jay didn't cut it last year and they weren't going to replace Holliday or Craig. An outfield of Holliday, Taveras, & Craig would be a disaster defensively. Now if Holliday or Craig were better defensively, then you could make a case for Taveras in CF but they arent & will never be.

The only way this is resolved is if something happens with either Craig (or Adams and Craig is moved to first) The only scenario I see where Oscar plays CF is if they bring up Piscotty at the same time but that would take extreme circumstances.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If Adams or Craig gets hurt in June and has to miss 4-6 weeks, it would be awesome to see OT up, assuming he continues to hit well now in the minors. It'd be really interesting to see how the Cards work around this depth with everyone healthy and OT already up and hitting fairly well. When push comes to shove, you'd think they have to stick with whomever is playing well. But of course this is all hypothetical. A fantasy baseball fanatic can only dream.

Also, in regards to UZR and WAR, there is something out there that's significantly more reliable than those fielding measurements. There's FIeld F/X, like Pitch F/X, but MLB is going to keep it proprietary and not make the data public for their own financial reasons. It's too bad. This article and the comments have some good insight to what Field F/X is and why it is withheld from the public:

http://www.piratespr...o-field-fx.html

at the moment you're most likely to see Grichuk get the call before taveras

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the issue (IMO) All the pieces in the Cards outfield "fit" currently. You have to have an elite defensive CF like Bourjos when you have Holliday & Craig at the corners. That's the reason why Bourjos is there in the first place. Jay didn't cut it last year and they weren't going to replace Holliday or Craig. An outfield of Holliday, Taveras, & Craig would be a disaster defensively. Now if Holliday or Craig were better defensively, then you could make a case for Taveras in CF but they arent & will never be.

With PT you have a hole in your lineup and with OT you have a hole in your OF.

However if PT continues to hit 225 the difference between that and a 300 hitter (not even factoring in power and assuming 4 PA per game) is 0.3 hits per game. Is PT really going to save 0.3 hits per game over Taveras? It makes sense to put a strong CF D to glue together weak offensive D corners but PB's average and power can't make up for it especially if OT hits for power and average.

I want to see the WHIP difference with more games for the STL rotation with PB in CF over last year. If the WHIP difference is more than 0.0333 (very conservative because I haven't factored in power to the offensive side of the equation) for the rotation it's not worth it. It will depend on pitcher and batted ball profile but I could see that for some pitchers it is better to have OT's offense in the lineup.

Link to post
Share on other sites

If they had any intention of bringing him up to play CF you have to think they would be giving him some work at CF in the minors. He's yet to play a game at CF this year.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw this mentioned on the twitter tonight.

Taveras making his first start in CF this season on a night when Bourjos is benched again. Bourjos just four starts in last 10 games.

wasn't Bourjos supposed to be the favorite in CF based on his defensive ability? so maybe if Taveras is starting in CF tonight it's to see how he is defensively?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably not as well as anyone with the Cardinals currently can (Bourjos, Jay, Robinson). But, if he could just play alright CF, as a Cards fan, I want him in the lineup over those guys.

Just thought it was interesting that he's healthy enough to play CF, and that he's playing there for the first time this season.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, obviously Bourjos isn't off to the start the team wanted.

They basically game him the job, and now because he's awful at the plate, Jay has taken it apparently.

But Jay was bad last season in CF

-16 Rtot

-10 Rdrs

You'd have to think that Oscar could play that type of CF while outhitting Jay.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...