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Tim Lincecum 2012 Season Outlook

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Not true. I'll gladly give up Dan Hudson for Lincecum and in fact that offer is being debated by the Lincy owner in my league (per email)

I guess he should have said that "no intelligent manager in their right mind would trade FOR Lincecum"...I'm kidding.

Honestly, I think it would be a very bold move to try to acquire Lincecum at this point. You could get him on the cheap, but I am very worried about his chances of rebounding.

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I value your opinion, fellow Giant fan. I like your optimism. That said...I do truly believe something is wrong with Lincey other than mechanics. Mechanics cannot explain the precipitous decline in velo and his peripherals. That giant difference in speed between his FB and CH was his bread in butter. That difference has dropped to pedestrian levels, and with his middling FB speed now, and his abandonment of his slider, that has left him vulnerable. That, and the league has finally caught up with his bizarre delivery and are no longer as fooled by it. Not good. I love Lincey. But I think there's something up here with shoulder/elbow that's being hidden. I will be pleasantly surprised if it turns out not to be the case.

one quick comment about this. i said when this was announced that this might only entail a couple of blowups starts and whadda ya know. during the rockies' telecast, the between innings lady mentioned that Rags says Lincy ditched the pitch due the arizona dry air and the damage to his hand by the seams of the ball. i know it sounds like a crock, but I would not be surprised to see that slider make its way back.

look at it this way. chances are the Giants got Lincecum's best years and it landed us a week long parade in the City that you and I will never forget. if we don't give him the 5-6 year mega deal at the end of next year, maybe we dodged a Kevin Brown/Mike Hampton/Jason Schmidt/Darren Dreifort bullet. but i still hold faith that he'll call Dad up, they'll watch some video via Skype, and get himself back on track.

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Again, does anyone know why he stopped throwing his curve ball? He threw it at a rate of only 6.4% last year down from 18.2% in 2009 and 16.4% in 2010 while he threw his slider at a rate of 24.1% last year up from 7.1 and 7.2%.

That's a drastic shift in pitching style.

He stop using the curve as much when he learned to throw a split/change (Its gripped like a split finger but its actually a changeup), which become his put away pitch. I believe he learned this pitch his 1st or 2nd year in the Majors.

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He stop using the curve as much when he learned to throw a split/change (Its gripped like a split finger but its actually a changeup), which become his put away pitch. I believe he learned this pitch his 1st or 2nd year in the Majors.

Time to bring it back.

Scouts had it graded as a 80 pitch when he was drafted.

Edited by 96mnc

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Not true. I'll gladly give up Dan Hudson for Lincecum and in fact that offer is being debated by the Lincy owner in my league (per email)

Uh, this is certainly subjective and not quantifiable. Felix "checked out"?

Do you live in Seattle? Watch all the Mariner games? ect...? If yes, then I'll listen to it. I'm not sure of a mariner fan who didn't realize that. i feel like you look at a stat sheet and draw conclusions, I draw it by going to at least 20 mariner games a year. There's not alot of offense to watch, so we usually do pretty well in keeping an eye on our pitching.

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As for Lincecum I jumped ship and traded for him the most value I can. I did a 2 for 1 package, in a H2H total point league where SP's are the way of life. I traded him and Panda for Pujols. Bold, but got lucky getting that much back for him. Just don't feel confident with him. Velocity down again is too much.

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As for Lincecum I jumped ship and traded for him the most value I can. I did a 2 for 1 package, in a H2H total point league where SP's are the way of life. I traded him and Panda for Pujols. Bold, but got lucky getting that much back for him. Just don't feel confident with him. Velocity down again is too much.

Can I join your league?

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As for Lincecum I jumped ship and traded for him the most value I can. I did a 2 for 1 package, in a H2H total point league where SP's are the way of life. I traded him and Panda for Pujols. Bold, but got lucky getting that much back for him. Just don't feel confident with him. Velocity down again is too much.

Can I join your league?

C'mon now. You make it sound like he made a crappy panic trade. Lincecum and Panda (basically a pair of 4th/5th rounders) in exchange for a consensus top-3 pick is a very reasonable value trade, and that's assuming that Lincecum is actually in fine shape.

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I value your opinion, fellow Giant fan. I like your optimism. That said...I do truly believe something is wrong with Lincey other than mechanics. Mechanics cannot explain the precipitous decline in velo and his peripherals. That giant difference in speed between his FB and CH was his bread in butter. That difference has dropped to pedestrian levels, and with his middling FB speed now, and his abandonment of his slider, that has left him vulnerable. That, and the league has finally caught up with his bizarre delivery and are no longer as fooled by it. Not good. I love Lincey. But I think there's something up here with shoulder/elbow that's being hidden. I will be pleasantly surprised if it turns out not to be the case.

Agree with your post, but not the bolded part. I bet if Lince's fastball suddenly got back to 94 the league would suddenly go back to being "fooled", delivery or no.

I don't want to say velocity is everything for a pitcher like Lince, but when you're down 3 mph it might as well be.

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Not true. I'll gladly give up Dan Hudson for Lincecum and in fact that offer is being debated by the Lincy owner in my league (per email)

Uh, this is certainly subjective and not quantifiable. Felix "checked out"?

Did it ever happen?

Dan Hudson isn't much of a fantasy guy due to him being a sinker ball guy.

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Felix checked out last year when he realized the offense was not going to score any runs. Not a good sign, but last year's jump wasn't a real decline as it was he seemed to not be engaged as when he gave up the first run he was getting a loss.

Sorry for hijacking the Tim Lincecum thread but I have to stick up for by boy here - dude seriously? Felix has dealt with crap since he has been in Seattle and has done nothing but battle and give his best effort - I've never even hard Seattle sports talk radio whisper this thought - NO WHERE. Felix loves being a Mariner, loves the city of Seattle - you base him checking out on what? Body language - does he have to throw a fit and punch water coolers when he gives up runs to show you he cares?

You knocked another poster in this thread for questioning you on this saying cause he doesn't live in Seattle or go to Mariners games his opinion isn't valid. Well buddy, I live in West Seattle and go to Mariners games. Hanley Ramirez checked it in last season, Felix Hernandez did not - he's not that kind of player - that's ridiculous.

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Last year Tim had a three game stretch where he gave up 18 runs in 15 innings: June 1st through the 11th.

On August 29th he had a 6 inning 4 ER game followed by a 5 inning 5 ER game on September 3rd.

For 2011 Tim finished with- 2.74 ERA and 220 Strikeouts.

Here is a list of pitchers who have won the Cy Young Award twice:

Bob Gibson 2 1968, 1970 Tom Glavine 2 1991, 1998 Denny McLain 2 1968, 1969 Gaylord Perry 2 1972, 1978 Bret Saberhagen 2 1985, 1989 Johan Santana 2 2004, 2006 Tim Lincecum 2 2008, 2009 Roy Halladay 2 2003, 2010

Here has who won the award three times:

Sandy Koufax 3 1963, 1965, 1966 Pedro Martínez 3 1997, 1999, 2000 Jim Palmer 3 1973, 1975, 1976 Tom Seaver 3 1969, 1973, 1975

Tim is 28 years old....

PS- his delivery is not whack or really that different. Unless you think starting with your hip, putting the ball down low or taking a big stride is whack. His delivery is actually pretty solid. Yes he is a small guy, but so was Pedro.

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Lipitorkid makes a really good point. He's had bad stretches before, it's being blown out of context, I believe because there is so much hype around the first week of the season.

Has Lincecum said anything to the SF media about his performance yesterday? If he was masking an injury, you think now would be the time to say something.

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It's been a long process of slowling losing velocity. I think this is the year where it really catches up with him.

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Do you live in Seattle? Watch all the Mariner games? ect...? If yes, then I'll listen to it. I'm not sure of a mariner fan who didn't realize that. i feel like you look at a stat sheet and draw conclusions, I draw it by going to at least 20 mariner games a year. There's not alot of offense to watch, so we usually do pretty well in keeping an eye on our pitching.

all i'll say is lol. congrats that by watching 20 games in person you can tell felix "checked out". i'm not convinced Felix's mom would know he checked out, but whatever.

Did it ever happen?

Dan Hudson isn't much of a fantasy guy due to him being a sinker ball guy.

Some would say Dan Hudson is just a tier below Timmy, such as this article.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/nl-starting-pitcher-tiered-rankings/

the other owner wants to see what Hudson does today in Coors. hopefully he dominates :P (not sure why that would make a difference, but the dude is a top notch owner) my point, though, wasn't to give you the details of my league. nobody cares about that. it was this notion that Lincecum is untradeable at this point or that you can't get anything good for him or nobody wants him. my "lowball" offer was a SP just a notch below Timmy. i don't care if 50 other fantasy owners come in here and are bailing due to loss of velocity or supposed arm troubles. i'm sticking by Lincy and would love to own him if i could. and if i'm wrong and he has a wasted year you'll be the first to throw a pie in my face, i'm sure.

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I was offerred Yu Darvish and Trevor Cahill for him and I turned it down, but not before seriously thinking about it.. I want to see him pitch at home, first, before I panic and trade him. Problem is, if he blows up vs Philly, I doubt this offer will still be on the table.

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Sorry for hijacking the Tim Lincecum thread but I have to stick up for by boy here - dude seriously? Felix has dealt with crap since he has been in Seattle and has done nothing but battle and give his best effort - I've never even hard Seattle sports talk radio whisper this thought - NO WHERE. Felix loves being a Mariner, loves the city of Seattle - you base him checking out on what? Body language - does he have to throw a fit and punch water coolers when he gives up runs to show you he cares?

You knocked another poster in this thread for questioning you on this saying cause he doesn't live in Seattle or go to Mariners games his opinion isn't valid. Well buddy, I live in West Seattle and go to Mariners games. Hanley Ramirez checked it in last season, Felix Hernandez did not - he's not that kind of player - that's ridiculous.

For the record, Felix is my favorite player. If he didn't check out then he declined last year.

As for back to Timmy, he seems to be declining. He seems to have those roller coaster weeks, and in H2H Points that's painful when your ace puts up a -4.5 week. I'd be curious, if someone was a Tim Lincecum owner what's the lowest they would sell them for? Daniel Hudson is an interesting one.

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  • Agreed, I would trade him for grienke right now if I could. Should be able to do it considering grienke had a rough outing last night as he sometimes does. In a keeper/dynasty league I would consider trading him for bumgarner.

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  • Agreed, I would trade him for grienke right now if I could. Should be able to do it considering grienke had a rough outing last night as he sometimes does. In a keeper/dynasty league I would consider trading him for bumgarner.

I don't think the other owners would do it.

I watched all of Greinke's start and it was vastly different than the destruction in Lincecum's start.

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Went back and watched the 1st inning of the Coors start again.

According to the radar gun by Root sports when he was in the windup his fastballs were 92, 92, 92, 93. Not sure what pitch fx is saying.

In the stretch, which he was in after walking the 1st batter of the game, they dropped down to 90 and 91.

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Also went back and watched all of his ARI start again.

Fastball velocity has been discussed at length so no need to discuss that again.

I did not see him throwing any sliders, despite what pitch EFX said. I think what they were calling a slider was actually his split fingered change up. That was the pitch getting bombed.

He was throwing the curve a lot move and it was effective as a swing and miss pitch. Going back to what I said earlier in the thread it made his 90 mph fastball play up even faster. For example, in one sequence he started Justin Upton off with a 83 mph change (called strike) and then threw him a 78 mph curve (taken for a ball). He then followed up up with an elevated 90 mph fastball that Upton swung through like it was 95 mph.

One other note, the broadcaster mentioned that Tim worked on speeding up his delivery from the stretch in spring training. I say screw it because it's costing him velocity from the stretch and effecting his command.

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today is the day, bailing out if he does poor against an older lineup in a pitchers park.

A win won't come easy considering who the other team has pitching.... Not that it matters one single bit, but he started his major league career against the Phillies.

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