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BIG SKI

George Springer - OF HOU

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To everyone with the .250 projections, can I please get a good reason why Carlos Gonzalez was a .302 hitter with a 27% K rate but Springer can't be? (Cargo also had a lower walk rate)

So Springer has had better stats all the way around in the minors than Cargo had and Cargo maintained a 27% K rate this past season in the MLB and he had no problems slashing .302/.367/.591, which were in line with his career numbers.

Springer has more power, more speed and better plate discipline than someone like Cargo..... but he's projected as a .250 hitter despite never hitting anywhere near that mark in his career thus far. Those projections just seems out of bounds.

Interesting thought. I don't have any info to add on this subject yet, but I think it's a very valid question going off what you have posted. I plan on looking into this tonight/tomorrow.

I would like more in depth analysis because these are just surface numbers I found because people seem to be selling Springer very short. Just doing a rough eyeball it seems Cargo had a slightly better K rate in the minors.

I would be fine with people projecting Springer to be a .280-.285 hitter but .250 just seems to have no rationale behind it other than omg strikeouts!

Hell Chris Davis strikes out at a 30% clip and he just hit .270 and .286 over 1200 PAs...... .250 just isn't realistic. (Slow pony, good looks PITC)

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It should be noted that Chris Davis also struck out 30% of the time the last two seasons and hit .270 and .286.

Springer's BABIP does seem unsustainable, though. It was .390 in AA and .362 in AAA this year. In High-A, it was .404. I would expect him to have a higher than normal BABIP because of his speed, but it won't be nearly that high in the Majors. Davis' BABIP the last two seasons was .335 and .336.

I definitely think Springer could hit above .250. It would not surprise me if he hit .270 a few seasons and got close to .280 even. Certain guys prove to be the exception to the rule. Some players who K a lot can still put up respectable averages, especially if they are fast and can beat out a lot of infield hits. I'm hoping Springer is one of those players. And I think anyone who says he can't is writing him off prematurely.

Chris Johnson maintained a .394 babip last year and he has no speed. Not really arguing against you but a .362+ babip certainly seems sustainable. Kind of ironic his worst babip resulted in his most prolific performance in the minors.

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I think people see high K rates in the minors and just love to point out that the average will go down. Happens all the time. Saw it last year with Marte. The thing that I like about Springer is that his walk rate is still very high. So with all of the strikeouts he is still getting on base. So even if the BABIP drops, he will still get on base at a high clip. I think similarly with Puig this year, he had his high average and OBP with the strikeouts, but people overlook his .390 OBP.

Being able to take walks will help stabilize average, IMO. A guy will just simply do better if they are able to watch pitches out of the strike zone and attack pitches that are in the zone.

So for Springer, I don't know what his average will be like, but all I care about is the category juice. If he goes 15/20 in 4 months he will be valuable no matter what the average is.

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His K rates are off the charts horrific in the minors. The difference between the minors and majors is so drastic its hard to even put into words. So you have to take that into account. If this guy is racking up 160+ K's against a lot of scrubs, what are major leaguers going to do against him? And you can bring Chris Davis, but he will never be a consistent average guy. Guys who K 30% of the time just don't have consistent average seasons. One year they may hit .290, the next .245, the next .255, the next .250, the next .230, the next .280. There just isn't any sort of consistency. Even if he has good walk rates, if the K rates stay in the 28 to 30 range it won't matter. Dunn and Reynolds have always had good walk rates and there averages always blow, except every one and a blue moon.

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Cargo is not a good comp as his k-rate was 19% with a .334 babip and a .290 avg.

Davis is closer with a 30 k-rate and a .374 babip. However, the years with a high babip his avg was much higher (.368 with a .418 babip). Last year for Springer was about .305 BA with a .375ish babip. So it may be optimistic to think the BA stays on point with Davis, but even then your projecting a .266 BA as Davis has career MLB avg of .266.

It's definitely reasonable and realistic to project .250 avg. Optimistically you could go .266 and pessimistically you could go lower than .250. A probably ultimate career range would be .270 to .240.

And all that is if Davis is the rule, which is a very narrow position to take.

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Cargo is not a good comp as his k-rate was 19% with a .334 babip and a .290 avg.

Davis is closer with a 30 k-rate and a .374 babip. However, the years with a high babip his avg was much higher (.368 with a .418 babip). Last year for Springer was about .305 BA with a .375ish babip. So it may be optimistic to think the BA stays on point with Davis, but even then your projecting a .266 BA as Davis has career MLB avg of .266.

It's definitely reasonable and realistic to project .250 avg. Optimistically you could go .266 and pessimistically you could go lower than .250. A probably ultimate career range would be .270 to .240.

And all that is if Davis is the rule, which is a very narrow position to take.

Actually, last year Cargo struck out 27% of the time.

And Davis did not have a .374 BABIP. As I said in my post, it was .335 and .336 the previous two seasons.

I think Justin Upton is a decent comp. He struck out 29% of the time in 2008 and hit .250. He struck out 26.6% of the time in 2010 and hit .273. He struck out 25% of the time last year and hit .263.

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Cargo is not a good comp as his k-rate was 19% with a .334 babip and a .290 avg.

Davis is closer with a 30 k-rate and a .374 babip. However, the years with a high babip his avg was much higher (.368 with a .418 babip). Last year for Springer was about .305 BA with a .375ish babip. So it may be optimistic to think the BA stays on point with Davis, but even then your projecting a .266 BA as Davis has career MLB avg of .266.

It's definitely reasonable and realistic to project .250 avg. Optimistically you could go .266 and pessimistically you could go lower than .250. A probably ultimate career range would be .270 to .240.

And all that is if Davis is the rule, which is a very narrow position to take.

Actually, last year Cargo struck out 27% of the time.

And Davis did not have a .374 BABIP. As I said in my post, it was .335 and .336 the previous two seasons.

I think Justin Upton is a decent comp. He struck out 29% of the time in 2008 and hit .250. He struck out 26.6% of the time in 2010 and hit .273. He struck out 25% of the time last year and hit .263.

To clarify, I was referring to MILB numbers.

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Dunn and Davis don't even has close to Springer's Speed. Reyonlds has legitimate Hand/Eye coordination issues...

For the Majors, Davis is a Career .335 BABIP. I don't think its hard to imagine a guy swings at everything hard with great power and speed can get a .330 BABIP mark...

Now, I'm not saying that its a slam dunk its going to happen. But guys in the minors who illustrate High K rates and high Walk rates, actually have a higher survival rate than you would think. Its usually the guys with High K rates and Meh Walk rates that don't make it at the next Level.

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And while it's only a small sample size, his K rate declined in AAA while his walk rate increased

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In 13 AB this preseason he has 1 hit , with 5 strikeouts, 6 walks and 3 SB.

Not enough to judge really anything of course, but I think the key thing here with Springer is while he will strikeout a lot giving him a .250 or lower batting average for the near MLB future, he can take walks and get on base.

That will ensure a 30SB player. Even at his reasonably low-end , a MLB 2014 stat line for Springer is .240 avg, 14 HR, 25 SB has value . Upside is probably closer to .260 with 18HR and 32SB in 2014.

Not amazing. But that has fantasy value with lots of upside.

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In 13 AB this preseason he has 1 hit , with 5 strikeouts, 6 walks and 3 SB.

Not enough to judge really anything of course, but I think the key thing here with Springer is while he will strikeout a lot giving him a .250 or lower batting average for the near MLB future, he can take walks and get on base.

That will ensure a 30SB player. Even at his reasonably low-end , a MLB 2014 stat line for Springer is .240 avg, 14 HR, 25 SB has value . Upside is probably closer to .260 with 18HR and 32SB in 2014.

Not amazing. But that has fantasy value with lots of upside.

That is why I think Mike Cameron is a good comp. High K guy, low average guy, but good walk rates, good power, good speed. Always had pretty good fantasy value in his prime years in Seattle and then with Mets. Cameron played in the back end of the steroid era so often times he was overlooked, but the guy had really good skills. People may think that is an insult to compare Springer to him, but if you put Cameron's stats up now in the non steroid era he would be a much more sought after player. He had 5 20+ HR, 20+ SB seasons, with very solid OBP numbers mixed in.

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BJ Upton may be a good comp. But if it's the BJ that we are seeing with the Braves OUCH

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Is he cracking the opening day roster? His news has been quiet.

doubtful, he probably won't be up before June.

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MLB tonight speculates in their 30 in 30 that Springer will break camp with the Astros

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From a business standpoint, it makes no sense for the Astros to start his clock early. Much smarter to start him off in Triple A and then call him up in June after the Super 2 passes. Let him get a half season's worth of experience to get ready for 2015 when they actually have a slight chance at competing.

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From a business standpoint, it makes no sense for the Astros to start his clock early. Much smarter to start him off in Triple A and then call him up in June after the Super 2 passes. Let him get a half season's worth of experience to get ready for 2015 when they actually have a slight chance at competing.

That's a very very slight chance at best.....their years away from competing and have the #5 farm system at the moment. Springer has nothing else to prove in the minors. I believe there's a strong chance he breaks camp, the fans need a breath of fresh air and he's the real deal.

They've lost 100+ games the last 3 years. It's time to make a move!

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It can go either ay with the business decision. Bringing him up now would mean in a couple years he should be more ready at the big league level. He has conquered the minors. Astros seem far but they could be competitive in 3-5 years. Delaying Springer at this point makes him less ready for that time. They have already delayed him enough. Should have been called up last year.

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Fowler will definitely start, and Grossman and Krauss are destroying the ball so far in spring training. I really expected Springer to begin in MLB but I didnt expect them to sign Fowler and with Grossman and Krauss destroying the ball I could see him starting off in AAA.

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Good article on Springer. http://www.fangraphs...ger-experiment/

Good article indeed. I'm sure Springer knows his swing and miss rate will be a big problem when he gets his first shot in the majors. I'm sure the coaches and organization tells him the same thing, but it has to be difficult to change his ways when he dominated last year with his current approach.

As long as he learns to adapt his approach early in the MLB, he should be just fine. From the tapes I've seen of him, he swings really hard in any count. I hope he eventually learns the E5 approach (swing really hard with 0 or 1 strike, just try to make solid contact when you have a 2 strike count).

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Fowler will definitely start, and Grossman and Krauss are destroying the ball so far in spring training. I really expected Springer to begin in MLB but I didnt expect them to sign Fowler and with Grossman and Krauss destroying the ball I could see him starting off in AAA.

I dont think Krauss is going to be a factor in delaying Springer. The team knows what it has in Springer which is a unique talent, it knows what it has in Krauss which is pretty blah. I think Springer starts in the minors, not for another guy being a better fit, but the Super 2 clock. Delaying until June, as has been mentioned above, buys them a year and that is more than likely the driving factor in where he ends up.

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I have no idea why they would start him in the bigs when they have zero shot to compete. Super 2 call up written all over him, imo.

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I have no idea why they would start him in the bigs when they have zero shot to compete. Super 2 call up written all over him, imo.

So no prospect, even if he's ready and has nothing more to prove, should ever break camp with a team that won't compete. That's silly.

I guess Buxton and Baez won't ever get called up then.

It gets to a point where this fixation on Super 2 becomes absurd. We've reached that point.

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I have no idea why they would start him in the bigs when they have zero shot to compete. Super 2 call up written all over him, imo.

So no prospect, even if he's ready and has nothing more to prove, should ever break camp with a team that won't compete. That's silly.

I guess Buxton and Baez won't ever get called up then.

It gets to a point where this fixation on Super 2 becomes absurd. We've reached that point.

Super 2 next year is absurd. This year not so much especially when Houston didn't call him up last year.

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