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calzonesays

Byron Buxton - OF MIN

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Well one would say 20/50 is better than 40/10 since that's 40 SBs over 20 HR...however

1.) If Buxton is stealing 50 bags, Baez is stealing more than 10

2.) Baez is going to play the more scarce position, probably 2B.

3.) HR>SB. HR gives you an Run and RBI total automatically and a chance for more RBI (with more men on base) SBs are stand alone. They only give you a chance for a run, and only a chance. Theoretically, 30+ homer power is feared and usually means they see less Strikes, better chance for Walks. Along with the slight bump in BA for each HR hit.

4.) An excellent point can be made that Buxton having the better Hit Tool, Discipline and Speed is going to lead to much higher BA/OBP. So I can give him the nod on those Merits more than the HR/SB argument over Baez..

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my bad on Javier Baez SBs ... I looked at his AA bags of 8 and missed his 12 bags at A+

20/50 versus 40/20 is dang close and probably would need to see overall team needs prior to choosing which 1.

I still take 20/50 (Buxton) over 40/10 (Sano and Bryant)

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Guys, I think we're splitting the hairs pretty finely on some points.

To recap:

1. Buxton's skills for his age, and his success for his age put him in VERY special company.

2. The hit tool is the hardest tool to acquire - so it's prized in 18-19 year olds, and rightfully so.

3. The thing that will limit him will be his power ceiling - but just as it's right to say we can't guarantee 20-30 HR power, because he's so young, that's the one projectable area people will disagree on.

4. Makeup is huge on how prospects learn and improve (for the flip side, look at Delmon Young, and for a more recent example, look at Trevor Bauer). Buxton being a disciple of the game and an apt learner really adds even more intangibles that has scouts drooling.

We've progressed to the point that a top 3 prospect rarely fails to be an impact player - barring injury. But it still can happen. So I TOTALLY get the skepticism when Trout comps are put out (even if it's just 1 component, the dude is truly a generational talent). But, I have zero qualms about why he's being ranked #1 by most. Remember, if you are #1, #2 or #3, that's truly awesome territory - so being #2 or #3 is truly splitting hairs most years when a Trout or Harper isn't at the top.

Can't wait to see him at High-A/AA for extended play this year.

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Pretty sure the Twins have already stated that Buxton will be starting the year at AA as he already passed his A+ test with flying colors.

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BA grade: 75 out of 80

Former 80s: Harper

Former 75s: Trout, Profar, Bundy, Matt Moore

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It's possible he could play this year, but I would say it's on the lesser end of 50/50.

Sano will get called up long before Buxton. Also I have Baez, Bryant, and Sano all ranked higher than Buxton that's me personally though.

Why, because they have more power and chicks dig the long ball?

Buxton has 20 HR / 50 SB potential with a higher batting average over the other 3. I'll take that all day everyday over 40 HR / 10 SB.

I played in 4 roto leagues last year (2 14 teamers and 2 12 teamers) and the average total on HRs was 236. The average total on SBs was 137. The SBs are tougher to get unless you go with road runners that provide little to no power (Revere, Young, Bourn, etc).

It's what makes the power and speed guys so valuable (Trout, McCutch, CarGo, Gomez).

The main thing you are ignoring is RBI totals. High HR totals will instantly allow better RBI totals. Who is stealing 50 bases and driving in runs?

In the last 2 seasons only 3 names have been in the top 10 in SBs and driven in over 80 RBI. Trout in both 2012 (83) and 2013 (97) and then Alex Rios 2013 (81).

Of the 11 players to hit 35+ HRs in the last two seasons all were 100+ RBI except 1 Adam Dunn 2012 (96). Of those 11 players all scored 85+ runs except 1 Pedro Alvarez 2013 (70) while most guys on the list topped 100 runs.

So yes I still think 40/10 is better than 20/50 when the 20/50 comes with 115 R and 60 RBI and then 40/10 comes with 100 R and 100 RBI with a high potential for much more than 100 RBI.

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It's possible he could play this year, but I would say it's on the lesser end of 50/50.

Sano will get called up long before Buxton. Also I have Baez, Bryant, and Sano all ranked higher than Buxton that's me personally though.

Why, because they have more power and chicks dig the long ball?

Buxton has 20 HR / 50 SB potential with a higher batting average over the other 3. I'll take that all day everyday over 40 HR / 10 SB.

I played in 4 roto leagues last year (2 14 teamers and 2 12 teamers) and the average total on HRs was 236. The average total on SBs was 137. The SBs are tougher to get unless you go with road runners that provide little to no power (Revere, Young, Bourn, etc).

It's what makes the power and speed guys so valuable (Trout, McCutch, CarGo, Gomez).

The main thing you are ignoring is RBI totals. High HR totals will instantly allow better RBI totals. Who is stealing 50 bases and driving in runs?

In the last 2 seasons only 3 names have been in the top 10 in SBs and driven in over 80 RBI. Trout in both 2012 (83) and 2013 (97) and then Alex Rios 2013 (81).

Of the 11 players to hit 35+ HRs in the last two seasons all were 100+ RBI except 1 Adam Dunn 2012 (96). Of those 11 players all scored 85+ runs except 1 Pedro Alvarez 2013 (70) while most guys on the list topped 100 runs.

So yes I still think 40/10 is better than 20/50 when the 20/50 comes with 115 R and 60 RBI and then 40/10 comes with 100 R and 100 RBI with a high potential for much more than 100 RBI.

Your basing your premise on Buxton only producing 60 RBI.

FYI, Buxton had 77 RBI last year in only 125 games. I'm sticking with him over the 40/10 potential guys.

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Your basing your premise on Buxton only producing 60 RBI.

FYI, Buxton had 77 RBI last year in only 125 games. I'm sticking with him over the 40/10 potential guys.

I'm basing my premise off of the fact that 60 RBI is a lot for a lead off hitter. Especially one who projects to hit lead off in a poor lineup.

Take his Advanced A sample and multiply it through 162 games it comes out to 62.5 RBI. You are acting like his A ball numbers are going to 100% translate into MLB numbers.

Only 10 guys in the past 4 seasons have produced over 60 RBI in the majors out of the lead off spot in the lineup. If we averaged the amount of HRs those 10 guys on average hit 22.4 HRs. Only one of those 10 players did repeated this "feat" and that was Ian Kinsler, who was on The Rangers who were 5th and 3rd in runs scored both seasons he did it.

Only 5 guys in the past 4 years have broken 70 RBI over the last 4 seasons. Their average HRs were 27.6 HRs. Again Ian Kinsler was the only repeat player.

So me giving him 60 RBI potential was already an over estimation of RBI for him. At least for what he will do early on in his career. At some point he could move into the 2 or 3 hole, who knows. But if he's going to be stealing 50 bases he will likely be in the lead off spot in the line up. Also if he's going to break 60 RBI like you claim he'll likely have to hit around 27 HRs to do so.

So I'd say my premise is a bit more sound than entertaining half of a season of A ball RBI. Buxton saw a drastic decrease in not only HRs but in XBH in general. SLG is what will drive RBI.

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Ranked #1 again by MLB.com. Anyone think he'll be called up in 2014?

Doubt it. Half a season in A+, at best the Twins are way out of it and give him a shot in September for a couple weeks. Even with that he wouldn't be fantasy relevant unless the power comes this year.

I disagree. He's got a decent shot at getting a call up post A.S. break. He's now 20 years old and slated to start the year at AA. If he's dominating at AA the Twins would then need to decide whether to promote Buxton to AAA or to the Big Show.

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper both made their MLB debut as 19 year olds and were full timers at 20. Now I'm not saying Buxton has to do it because they did it but he is quite talented.

All depends on how he does at AA. I could see the Twins bringing Buxton and Sano up this summer.

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper weren't on teams that have lost 90+ for 3 straight seasons and most likely going for a 4th. Sano will almost certainly be up this year, barring injury or other issues, and the Twins will probably want to stagger their call ups. I doubt they're going to start his service time for a September call up either.

I think the earliest we can reasonably expect him to be up is opening day 2015, but summer 2015 wouldn't surprise me one bit either.

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Ranked #1 again by MLB.com. Anyone think he'll be called up in 2014?

Doubt it. Half a season in A+, at best the Twins are way out of it and give him a shot in September for a couple weeks. Even with that he wouldn't be fantasy relevant unless the power comes this year.

I disagree. He's got a decent shot at getting a call up post A.S. break. He's now 20 years old and slated to start the year at AA. If he's dominating at AA the Twins would then need to decide whether to promote Buxton to AAA or to the Big Show.

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper both made their MLB debut as 19 year olds and were full timers at 20. Now I'm not saying Buxton has to do it because they did it but he is quite talented.

All depends on how he does at AA. I could see the Twins bringing Buxton and Sano up this summer.

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper weren't on teams that have lost 90+ for 3 straight seasons and most likely going for a 4th. Sano will almost certainly be up this year, barring injury or other issues, and the Twins will probably want to stagger their call ups. I doubt they're going to start his service time for a September call up either.

I think the earliest we can reasonably expect him to be up is opening day 2015, but summer 2015 wouldn't surprise me one bit either.

Team might want to get him experience this year so in 2015 and 2016 he will have made adjustments and could be elite by then. Don't want to wait until they are contenders and have him struggle and cost you games.

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Just going to give this thread a bit of a bump because I ended up with Buxton in a dynasty.

But I was interested in the SBs vs. HRs debate. Are we sure Buxton is the type of guy that will maintain his SBs throughout his career because a lot of guys come up with that 50 SB potential and it tapers off pretty quickly as they age, gain weight, move down in the order, etc. Even Trout slowed down after 1 year.

In some ways I'm intrigued by the big power/OBP type prospects because in a dynasty league they're a safer bet to remain viable into their 30s when their speed declines.

If Baez is truly an elite power prospect and ends up at 2B... I dunno... he's possibly more intriguing than Buxton.

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There's a lot of Trout in Buxton. That alone makes him more interesting than Baez. But ultimately you might be right. Only time will tell who winds up being more valuable in fantasy.

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Better chance Buxton steals 50 bags and hits .300 than Baez hits .290 with 30 homers. Baez could hit 40 homers, but bet the AVG is gonna take a hit. Once Buxton gets in the 20-30 homer range the steals will go away though

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How early would you guys be willing to jump on him in a keeper? Seems like he could be a huge difference maker immediately.

I am wondering this myself.

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Call me crazy (I'm sure you guys will) but I prefer not only Baez to Buxton but Bryant and Betts as well. My 4 favorite prospects all start with B's.

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Call me crazy (I'm sure you guys will) but I prefer not only Baez to Buxton but Bryant and Betts as well. My 4 favorite prospects all start with B's.

You could definitely make a case for Baez and maybe even Bryant, but Betts is just silly.

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Im willing to bet Betts will be the better fantasy play when him and Buxton are in their primes. I don't see a big enough difference in their stats to out weigh positional scarcity.

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How early would you guys be willing to jump on him in a keeper? Seems like he could be a huge difference maker immediately.

I am wondering this myself.

Depends on the settings. If it's a draft, I wouldn't go too early because most draft keepers that I've heard of(never played one) you have to give up the round you got him in and progressively goes up each year. Same for auctions, but if you're not getting him fairly cheap it takes away his keeper value. Personally I don't think minor league players should be available in a keeper draft/auction, but that's a different discussion.

Short answer, probably around where Harvey is going. Similar timelines in my opinion playing in 2015, cornerstones of your team in 2016.

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Designated to minors' spring training camp today... totally expected, but would have liked to see him beast in the big boy spring training.

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Designated to minors' spring training camp today... totally expected, but would have liked to see him beast in the big boy spring training.

He was hitting under .200 in ST so far.

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He might get a September call up this year, but the absolute earliest he will be in the bigs to stay is after the Super 2 deadline in 2015.

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What is his real ETA? Some point this season or not until 2015?

I think sometime in 2015 is more likely.

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