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BigPapi44

Atlanta Braves 2013 Outlook

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Upton/Upton/Heyward

If they stay healthy all year, they will have at least 460 strikeouts between them...

That is extremely high. BJ is the only one who will K more than 150 times. Justin and Jason will be around 110 - 115 each.

Heyward's 162-game average is 141 K's...

B.J.'s 162-game average is 171 K's...

Justin's 162-game average is 154 K's...

Yes I know that everyone doesn't play 162 games anymore, but that right there is 466... I would guess that they would be closer to 440-450 (if all are healthy all year)...

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Upton/Upton/Heyward

If they stay healthy all year, they will have at least 460 strikeouts between them...

That is extremely high. BJ is the only one who will K more than 150 times. Justin and Jason will be around 110 - 115 each.

How is 460 extremely high? Those three guys K'd 442 times last year.

Is Heyward really expected to cut his K's from 152 to 115? That's a steep decline.

A few years ago, J-Up was pushing a 200 K pace before he got shut down. He's improved a lot but is still a guy who fans his fair share.

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It will be interesting to see how Fredi manages the lienup. They really don't have a #2 hitter. I wonder if they would consider moving up Simmons at some point. My take:

BJ Upton

Justin Upton

Jason Heyward

Freddie Freeman

Dan Uggla

Brian McCann

Chris Johnson

Simmons

Pitcher

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Posted this in the J Upton thread but probably belongs here.

BJ Upton 5.01

Heyward 5.80

J Upton 6.11

Freeman 5.38

McCann 4.79

Uggla 4.47

Francisco 4.27 / Johnson 4.28

Simmons 3.87

That's a RC/G of 4.96 per game adding 2.00 RC/G for a pitcher (just a guess) puts them at 4.63 per game. National league average was 4.21 last season, Milwaukee was the best at 4.79 but Miller Park has a lot to do with that.

Either way its a pretty solid lineup with very few easy outs. Lots of power and lots of guys that will work a count, and the core 3 are 23, 23, and 25 years old.

Looking at that lineup I see a lot of K's and and .260 average.

Upton/Upton/Heyward

If they stay healthy all year, they will have at least 460 strikeouts between them...

Upton/Upton/Heyward

If they stay healthy all year, they will have at least 460 strikeouts between them...

THIS

Runs are runs....doesn't matter how you get them. High K's usually correlates to high HRs. HR = runs. Last season the NYY finished 2nd in the MLB in runs scored and hit .263 collectively.

There is the argument that in the playoffs, HR's are harder to come by.

BUT...

1. You have a much better chance to go far in the playoffs if you do better in the regular season (since WC is a tougher spot than Division winner) - so regular season O output matters a ton.

2. Uptons x 2, Heyward & Simmons offer the SB (at a high success rate) to help when "small ball" needed.

So yeah, I accept the premise the Braves' O is a lot better than 2012 for sure...and the speed is a great counterbalance to the K's (in a perfect world low K would be the 4th cog in the 4 cornerstones of juggernaut O's - contact, power, speed & patience <BB & high pitch counts/AB>), but K is the most expendable in today's HR-crazy era...

Giants were DEAD LAST in HR last year.....

and won the World Series

Not exactly how you would draw it up as a recipe for winning a title.

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It will be interesting to see how Fredi manages the lienup. They really don't have a #2 hitter. I wonder if they would consider moving up Simmons at some point. My take:

BJ Upton

Justin Upton

Jason Heyward

Freddie Freeman

Dan Uggla

Brian McCann

Chris Johnson

Simmons

Pitcher

I think a couple of other lineups were posted in this thread that make more sense. Why not break up the righty Uptons and the lefty Freeman and Heyward. Justin does have better OBP skills than Heyward at this time and maybe having two 22+ K% guys at the top is too much. Not sure Uggla deserves to be in the top 5. If you don't care about breaking up the L/R in the top four, not sure the Braves would care about having 3 L's in a row. I like the lineup a lot better if Simmons can lock down the leadoff spot and getting BJ and his K's down in the lineup but for now, I think Upton is your 3 hitter....Would probably help Heyward see more FBs too in the 2 hole.....

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So fantasy wise, this helps Heywards value right? He had such a good year I'm just kinda nervous of a decline. Like the sophomore slump he had. Senior slump........

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So fantasy wise, this helps Heywards value right? He had such a good year I'm just kinda nervous of a decline. Like the sophomore slump he had. Senior slump........

Sophomore slump was directly related to playing through an injury after being called out by Chipper. This affected his mechanics later in the season. Point being, so long as healthy Heyward should be better. Seems more likely based on his entire development including minor ball that improvement is in cards.

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The one sure thing for me here, is that I'll be rooting for this OF to put up 100 HRs and 100 SBs this season.

Has that ever even been done before? 3 OFs combining or 100 HR and 100 SB? The potential for that to happen this season is there.

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The one sure thing for me here, is that I'll be rooting for this OF to put up 100 HRs and 100 SBs this season.

Has that ever even been done before? 3 OFs combining or 100 HR and 100 SB? The potential for that to happen this season is there.

Well thanks to insomnia I have a little gem of information for you all.

I looked up all the teams of anyone who ever had a 40/40 (and Soriano's 39/41 with The Yankees) and none of them even came close to 100/100 between their 3 best OFs. So then I started looking into some 30/30 player's teams and honestly after looking at about 20 teams the highest I could find was last year's Brewers.

Braun 41/30, Aoki 10/30, Gomez 19/37 was a total of 70/97.

The highest total of 3 guys on the same team that I could find (not exclusive to OFs)

The 1996 Colorado Rockies had Dante Bichette OF 31/31, Ellis Burk OF 40/32, and Andres Galarraga 1B 47/18 for a grand total of 118/81, which combines for a total of 199.

Then The 1987 New York Mets had Darryl Strawberry OF 39/36, Howard Johnson 3B/SS 36/32, Kevin McReynolds OF 29/14 for a total of 104/82.

So needless to say we could be seeing production never seen before out of this OF.

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Upton/Upton/Heyward

If they stay healthy all year, they will have at least 460 strikeouts between them...

That is extremely high. BJ is the only one who will K more than 150 times. Justin and Jason will be around 110 - 115 each.

Heyward's 162-game average is 141 K's...

B.J.'s 162-game average is 171 K's...

Justin's 162-game average is 154 K's...

Yes I know that everyone doesn't play 162 games anymore, but that right there is 466... I would guess that they would be closer to 440-450 (if all are healthy all year)...

I know they K'ed a lot last year but hear me out.

BJ Upton, I Honestly think he's going to be pumped up in this OF and have his best season yet. But even that considered he's BJ Upton and he's probably good for 160 K's.

Now Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are both still very young and have elite ceilings. So projecting them off of their career numbers is pretty unfair when they have both been in the league full time by the time they were 20.

As for projecting Justin Upton I think it is more fair to use his last two seasons in which he struck out 247 times over 309 games, which that rate projected over 162 games would be 124 K's. Now factor in the fact that I fully expect Justin to be improved all around hitting being at a nice breakout age for "prodigy players". As well as the fact that he will probably miss a few games to days off and day to day stuff putting him at 150 - 155 games, which leads me to think he'll be around 110 - 115 K's on the season.

Heyward in 240 career minor league games struck out only 139 times!! Project that rate over 162 games and that would be 94 K's (round up). Sure it's the minor leagues and all but nonetheless Heyward while playing way above his age level showed very solid plate discipline. Now that being said Heyward's minor league plate discipline was far better than Justin Upton's. Upton a player I have constantly compared Heyward to over the past 5 years or so I'll continue by saying Justin's plate discipline showed vast improvement in his age 23 season. Heyward being 23 now could see a crazy spike like that. Now considering Heyward had a much better minor league contact rate as well as a much better K% upon entering the league in age 20 / 21 seasons. I am thinking that he could see an even better improvement than Justin did in Justin's age 23 season, where Justin had a K% of 18.7%. So put Heyward at 18.5% K rate and put that over his 651 PAs last year and he would have only struck out 120 times.

So I'll take ugly looking pick in the under on 400 K's between the 3 of them.

That's the crazy wacky logic I use to try and predict a crazy wacky game.

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The one sure thing for me here, is that I'll be rooting for this OF to put up 100 HRs and 100 SBs this season.

Has that ever even been done before? 3 OFs combining or 100 HR and 100 SB? The potential for that to happen this season is there.

Well thanks to insomnia I have a little gem of information for you all.

I looked up all the teams of anyone who ever had a 40/40 (and Soriano's 39/41 with The Yankees) and none of them even came close to 100/100 between their 3 best OFs. So then I started looking into some 30/30 player's teams and honestly after looking at about 20 teams the highest I could find was last year's Brewers.

Braun 41/30, Aoki 10/30, Gomez 19/37 was a total of 70/97.

The highest total of 3 guys on the same team that I could find (not exclusive to OFs)

The 1996 Colorado Rockies had Dante Bichette OF 31/31, Ellis Burk OF 40/32, and Andres Galarraga 1B 47/18 for a grand total of 118/81, which combines for a total of 199.

Then The 1987 New York Mets had Darryl Strawberry OF 39/36, Howard Johnson 3B/SS 36/32, Kevin McReynolds OF 29/14 for a total of 104/82.

So needless to say we could be seeing production never seen before out of this OF.

The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays between all 7 of their OFs put up 95/128.

Ben Zobrist 20/19, Johnny Damon 16/19, BJ Upton 23/36, Matt Joyce 19/13, Sam Flud 3/20, Desmond Jennings 10/20, Ruggiano 4/1

So if any OF trio was going to pull off a combined 100+ HR and 100+ SBs J-Hey and The Upton Brothers would be my first choice.

Considering how BJ, Justin, and Jason were all hyped to be super stars. BJ is in the middle of his prime has strung together back to back very nice seasons yet he still hasn't lived up to what he was hyped to be years ago. Justin and Jason are 2 other "prodigy players" who are just entering their primes. Along with them pushing and pulling for eachother I can see it happening.

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That rox team mentioned above was 80-80+ between three OF walker, burks and bichette and could of come close if walker didn't get hurt and only have a half season or so of at bats. I wonder what just the most hr by 3of is ? Probably those rox teams

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Posted this in the J Upton thread but probably belongs here.

BJ Upton 5.01

Heyward 5.80

J Upton 6.11

Freeman 5.38

McCann 4.79

Uggla 4.47

Francisco 4.27 / Johnson 4.28

Simmons 3.87

That's a RC/G of 4.96 per game adding 2.00 RC/G for a pitcher (just a guess) puts them at 4.63 per game. National league average was 4.21 last season, Milwaukee was the best at 4.79 but Miller Park has a lot to do with that.

Either way its a pretty solid lineup with very few easy outs. Lots of power and lots of guys that will work a count, and the core 3 are 23, 23, and 25 years old.

Looking at that lineup I see a lot of K's and and .260 average.

Upton/Upton/Heyward

If they stay healthy all year, they will have at least 460 strikeouts between them...

Upton/Upton/Heyward

If they stay healthy all year, they will have at least 460 strikeouts between them...

THIS

Runs are runs....doesn't matter how you get them. High K's usually correlates to high HRs. HR = runs. Last season the NYY finished 2nd in the MLB in runs scored and hit .263 collectively.

There is the argument that in the playoffs, HR's are harder to come by.

BUT...

1. You have a much better chance to go far in the playoffs if you do better in the regular season (since WC is a tougher spot than Division winner) - so regular season O output matters a ton.

2. Uptons x 2, Heyward & Simmons offer the SB (at a high success rate) to help when "small ball" needed.

So yeah, I accept the premise the Braves' O is a lot better than 2012 for sure...and the speed is a great counterbalance to the K's (in a perfect world low K would be the 4th cog in the 4 cornerstones of juggernaut O's - contact, power, speed & patience <BB & high pitch counts/AB>), but K is the most expendable in today's HR-crazy era...

Giants were DEAD LAST in HR last year.....

and won the World Series

Yeah pitching can carry your team so hard in the playoffs.

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If Trout steals 90 bags then the Angels could get 100/100. Which is possible too. Just not as potentially even across the board as ATL.

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If Trout steals 90 bags then the Angels could get 100/100. Which is possible too. Just not as potentially even across the board as ATL.

Whoops, I was thinking Trumbo would be in OF instead of Bourjos.

I suppose 100 steals would be in the bag and also Wells could rise from the dead (which is not likely).

Carry on with the ATL 100/100 hype.

Anyone see this falling apart? It would be great if Heyward/J-Up spark each other. However, something about this screams quietly, too good to be true.

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That rox team mentioned above was 80-80+ between three OF walker, burks and bichette and could of come close if walker didn't get hurt and only have a half season or so of at bats. I wonder what just the most hr by 3of is ? Probably those rox teams

I couldn't find any team closer to 100/100.Yeah if Walker played the whole season they would have had a chance at 100/100.

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That rox team mentioned above was 80-80+ between three OF walker, burks and bichette and could of come close if walker didn't get hurt and only have a half season or so of at bats. I wonder what just the most hr by 3of is ? Probably those rox teams

The 1961 Yankees of Maris (61), Mantle (54) and Berra (22) had 137... But three of Berra's HRs did not come while playing the OF, so they got 134...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/1961.shtml

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The one sure thing for me here, is that I'll be rooting for this OF to put up 100 HRs and 100 SBs this season.

Has that ever even been done before? 3 OFs combining or 100 HR and 100 SB? The potential for that to happen this season is there.

Well thanks to insomnia I have a little gem of information for you all.

I looked up all the teams of anyone who ever had a 40/40 (and Soriano's 39/41 with The Yankees) and none of them even came close to 100/100 between their 3 best OFs. So then I started looking into some 30/30 player's teams and honestly after looking at about 20 teams the highest I could find was last year's Brewers.

Braun 41/30, Aoki 10/30, Gomez 19/37 was a total of 70/97.

The highest total of 3 guys on the same team that I could find (not exclusive to OFs)

The 1996 Colorado Rockies had Dante Bichette OF 31/31, Ellis Burk OF 40/32, and Andres Galarraga 1B 47/18 for a grand total of 118/81, which combines for a total of 199.

Then The 1987 New York Mets had Darryl Strawberry OF 39/36, Howard Johnson 3B/SS 36/32, Kevin McReynolds OF 29/14 for a total of 104/82.

So needless to say we could be seeing production never seen before out of this OF.

13 guys hit over 33 homers last season. Post steroid era power has been humanized again. They may be able to come close to the 100 steals, but there is not a bats chance in hell they hit 100 homers together.

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The one sure thing for me here, is that I'll be rooting for this OF to put up 100 HRs and 100 SBs this season.

Has that ever even been done before? 3 OFs combining or 100 HR and 100 SB? The potential for that to happen this season is there.

Well thanks to insomnia I have a little gem of information for you all.

I looked up all the teams of anyone who ever had a 40/40 (and Soriano's 39/41 with The Yankees) and none of them even came close to 100/100 between their 3 best OFs. So then I started looking into some 30/30 player's teams and honestly after looking at about 20 teams the highest I could find was last year's Brewers.

Braun 41/30, Aoki 10/30, Gomez 19/37 was a total of 70/97.

The highest total of 3 guys on the same team that I could find (not exclusive to OFs)

The 1996 Colorado Rockies had Dante Bichette OF 31/31, Ellis Burk OF 40/32, and Andres Galarraga 1B 47/18 for a grand total of 118/81, which combines for a total of 199.

Then The 1987 New York Mets had Darryl Strawberry OF 39/36, Howard Johnson 3B/SS 36/32, Kevin McReynolds OF 29/14 for a total of 104/82.

So needless to say we could be seeing production never seen before out of this OF.

13 guys hit over 33 homers last season. Post steroid era power has been humanized again. They may be able to come close to the 100 steals, but there is not a bats chance in hell they hit 100 homers together.

Also I dont think they come close in the steals either. BJ's have been going down, so assuming he gets 35 this year I dont think Justin and Heyward get more then 25 each. Justin has never stolen more then 21 and Heyward hasnt either. Justin's steals can go up, but I think Heyward will be around a 20 to 25 steal player

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That rox team mentioned above was 80-80+ between three OF walker, burks and bichette and could of come close if walker didn't get hurt and only have a half season or so of at bats. I wonder what just the most hr by 3of is ? Probably those rox teams

The 1961 Yankees of Maris (61), Mantle (54) and Berra (22) had 137... But three of Berra's HRs did not come while playing the OF, so they got 134...

http://www.baseball-.../NYY/1961.shtml

So with two of the all time HR seasons in the same OF, they only got to 137 and between those 3 probably didnt steal 10 bases...I tried to dig a little deeper not a lot out there, look at the 30-30 guys or 40-40 guys or the extreme HR or SB guys, they just didnt have much with them.

The 1987 Reds were also 80-80 with Eric Davis, Dave Parker and Kal Daniels they were 89HR and 83SB.

The 1970 Giants were 70-70 with Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays and Ken Henderson. Bobby Bonds was a 30-30 Monster, I thought maybe Mays might of had one more really good like 30-30 to mix in and I had no idea who their 3rd OF was, Ken Henderson actually put up good numbers for an early 1970's OF (have no f'ing idea who he was).

The 2001 DBacks with Reggie Sanders, Steve Finley and Luis Gonzales had the potential to do it looking at their career stats, just didnt put it together that year.

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That rox team mentioned above was 80-80+ between three OF walker, burks and bichette and could of come close if walker didn't get hurt and only have a half season or so of at bats. I wonder what just the most hr by 3of is ? Probably those rox teams

The 1961 Yankees of Maris (61), Mantle (54) and Berra (22) had 137... But three of Berra's HRs did not come while playing the OF, so they got 134...

http://www.baseball-.../NYY/1961.shtml

Yeah but the team as a whole didn't even steal close to 100 bases.

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13 guys hit over 33 homers last season. Post steroid era power has been humanized again. They may be able to come close to the 100 steals, but there is not a bats chance in hell they hit 100 homers together.

Just going off of career highs in their relatively young careers they are already fairly close. Justin 31, Jason 27, and BJ at 28 comes out to 86. I think its fair to say we've yet to see any of these players best seasons yet (maybe BJs? But I think he's still got better in him).

Honestly I feel the 100 SBs would be the harder part. But if all 3 go 30/30 which they certainly have that type of potentail that's 90/90 right there.

By no means am I saying this is a lock to happen. But simply throwing out there that it's very possible. If these guys finish their careers together in ATL one season it very well could happen, maybe even for multiple seasons. Yeah a lot of things will have to go right for it to happen, but hey that's why it's never been done before.

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