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Kris Bryant - 3B CHC

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25046

Baseball Prospectus released their top 10 for the Cubs. To my surprise at least, Kris Bryant isn't #1. Addison Russell is.

Nothing against Russell or anything as he's a fantastic prospect and probably a top 5 prospect in the league, but I thought it was sort of obvious Bryant was their #1? Especially considering what Bryant did in AA and AAA combined last year, I thought for sure he'd be #1.

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That's a silly ranking. BP dropped the ball big time. Bryant is easily #1 in their system, and it's not even close.

Not silly at all. They have been consistent in the manner of weighing Russell(at least when Russell has been healthy, the mid-season ranking was different because Russell had barely played at that point) over Bryant. All you can ask, they have their methodology. Don't have to agree with it..

Go look at last year. BA and MLB.com both had Bryant in the top 10. BP had him 17th. Russell was ranked 14th and 12th behind Bryant... but BP put him all the way to 7th. 10 spots ahead of him.

They have never been as high on him as everyone else, and liked Russell more than others. Bryant had a monster year.. He will still probably be top 5 because of it. They obviously don't think his 66-68% contact rate can be completely ignored because of his massive year. Far as transitioning and projecting long term as a MLB player.. Guessing Bryant is viewed as the much better pure hitter because of power...but Rusell projecting to be the better overall player because of all the other factors...

Not saying I agree with it, or they are right...but it's far from silly and from my observation, I've tended to like BPs analysis over other prospecting sites..

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If someone held a gun to your head and asked you which of these players will be better, most people would say Bryant without hesitation. BP is just trying to be smarter than everyone else. Doesn't mean they are, in this case.

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The only reason I can think of for ranking Russell over Bryant is defensive value. Doesn't matter much in fantasy obviously, but Russell does offer more value on the defensive side than Bryant. Offensively, I can't see how you could take Russell over Bryant, but I guess adding in defense makes it closer. I don't know, even with defense, I'd take Bryant, but that's just me. That's really the only reason I can think for BP to put Russell over Bryant.

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A good SS for the next 10-15 years who can hit pretty well is more valuable than a good home run hitter in real baseball.

I mean look at someone like Brandon Moss who hit 30 bombs twice (which is a ton), how valuable was he in real baseball? Obviously youre hoping with more upside with Bryant, but it's far from a given. Measuring a SS's defense and whether he's just a solid hitter is a lot easier to predict I think.

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Bryant isn't 1st or 2nd on my Cub top 10 prospect list either, so I don't see how it's silly at all. Bryant has a glaring flaw in his game. Russell and Soler have similar ceilings but without the gaping flaw in their games.

1.Russell

2.Soler

3.Bryant

4.Schwarber

5.Edwards

6.Almora

7.McKinney

8.Johnson

9. Torres

10. Tseng

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We'll see how it plays out, I guess. I think it's a foolish ranking. And I think having two Cubs prospects ahead of Bryant is a really foolish ranking. But to each his own.

In just a few short years, it should be a lot more clear.

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I really like Bryant (I own him and Russell on my dynasty team.) But his batting profile is effectively George Springer right now. His contact rate is just horrible, I mean some of the worst in all of professional baseball. His strikeout rate doesn't help either.

His upside from a fantasy prospective is the highest in the minors, so from that aspect he should be #1 fantasy prospect. But ever reaching that is going to be iffy.

Addison Russell is the better defender, better athlete and better batting profile. The fact he can do all this and have 20+HR power is quite amazing. He currently is and projects to be the better overal baseball player of the two, even if he doesn't win a homerun derby.

But fantasy, I might have to take Bryant by a smidge.

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A good SS for the next 10-15 years who can hit pretty well is more valuable than a good home run hitter in real baseball.

I mean look at someone like Brandon Moss who hit 30 bombs twice (which is a ton), how valuable was he in real baseball? Obviously youre hoping with more upside with Bryant, but it's far from a given. Measuring a SS's defense and whether he's just a solid hitter is a lot easier to predict I think.

This.

Most people would prefer Bryant if you're only talking hitting/fantasy, but BP's list is for real baseball. If Russell can play above average defense at SS and hit like most people believe he will, he will almost certainly be a better overall player than Bryant.

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So Starlin Castro is more valuable to the Cubs than Bryant will ever be, according to you guys. Metrics say he plays above average shortstop, and he can hit.

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So Starlin Castro is more valuable to the Cubs than Bryant will ever be, according to you guys. Metrics say he plays above average shortstop, and he can hit.

I don't think thats ridiculous to think. I'm certainly not saying one will be much more valuable than the other. I'm not sure how many years Castro has been hitting above average or playing above average defense, but it's a pretty hard spot to fill on your team.

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Cracks me up every year these 'can't miss' prospects are always loved after. I wish well things for Bryant, but these prospect ranking systems are just downright silly. Prospects are lottery tickets, and more often than not they don't turn into a big winner (more like a break-even player to trade in to try and gamble again.)

When you have watched a few years of baseball you really appreciate the hit or miss element in these guys.

I remember when people were selling their kidneys and Kershaws not long ago for Pedro Alvarez. Got to love fantasy.

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So Starlin Castro is more valuable to the Cubs than Bryant will ever be, according to you guys. Metrics say he plays above average shortstop, and he can hit.

I don't think thats ridiculous to think. I'm certainly not saying one will be much more valuable than the other. I'm not sure how many years Castro has been hitting above average or playing above average defense, but it's a pretty hard spot to fill on your team.

If Bryant Sticks at 3B.. I'd say his chances of being more valuable are better. Because 3B is actually premium position.

Last year in 200 PAs, # of players over 800 OPS

C: 5

1B: 14

2B: 5

SS: 3

3B: 5

LF 14

CF 10

RF: 9

Then the league average numbers per position:

C: .689

1B: 757

2B: 686

SS: 678

3B: 715

LF: 724

CF: 719

RF: 735

Just a little food for though. Nothing in depth, just sharing some quick and easy numbers on offense

Obviously he was a 1B like Moss. It makes more sense..but Bryant is right is looking at 3B. Which is position that is not so easy to find great pure hitters like 1B .

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So Starlin Castro is more valuable to the Cubs than Bryant will ever be, according to you guys. Metrics say he plays above average shortstop, and he can hit.

As solid as Castro has been in his young career Russell profiles to be better than him. Better OBP, more power, better baserunner, better fielder.

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The only reason I can think of for ranking Russell over Bryant is defensive value. Doesn't matter much in fantasy obviously, but Russell does offer more value on the defensive side than Bryant. Offensively, I can't see how you could take Russell over Bryant, but I guess adding in defense makes it closer. I don't know, even with defense, I'd take Bryant, but that's just me. That's really the only reason I can think for BP to put Russell over Bryant.

That's exactly why he's ranked higher than Bryant. Their rankings aren't fantasy related, they are real life rankings. If they feel Russell will provide above average defense while raking on offense, then there isn't an issue.

Fantasy speaking, you have to rank Bryant ahead of Russell.

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Just so it's clear, BP has Bryant #2 behind Russell - and in the writeup, they even specifically acknowledge that Russell isn't even the best fantasy prospect on their team - Bryant is. Gotta keep in mind that BP, like many other sites, doesn't speak only in fantasy terms, but in real-life evaluation, too - which matters little to owners, but certainly can explain their rankings quite easily, with that context.

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Just so it's clear, BP has Bryant #2 behind Russell - and in the writeup, they even specifically acknowledge that Russell isn't even the best fantasy prospect on their team - Bryant is. Gotta keep in mind that BP, like many other sites, doesn't speak only in fantasy terms, but in real-life evaluation, too - which matters little to owners, but certainly can explain their rankings quite easily, with that context.

Now I did not see that. Probably because I don't have the BP subscription. I sort of just saw Russell being ahead of Bryant and jumped to the conclusion. I figured it was more real life ranking, but the subscription would have helped.

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Just so it's clear, BP has Bryant #2 behind Russell - and in the writeup, they even specifically acknowledge that Russell isn't even the best fantasy prospect on their team - Bryant is. Gotta keep in mind that BP, like many other sites, doesn't speak only in fantasy terms, but in real-life evaluation, too - which matters little to owners, but certainly can explain their rankings quite easily, with that context.

I was aware of this. Unless Russell turns out to be the next Barry Larkin, I don't think he'll be a better real life player than Bryant.

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Just so it's clear, BP has Bryant #2 behind Russell - and in the writeup, they even specifically acknowledge that Russell isn't even the best fantasy prospect on their team - Bryant is. Gotta keep in mind that BP, like many other sites, doesn't speak only in fantasy terms, but in real-life evaluation, too - which matters little to owners, but certainly can explain their rankings quite easily, with that context.

I wonder what %o of people are buying BP for fantasy vs non fantasy. I always assumed it was significantly greater than 50%. Anyway, I like Baseball HQ since it's more fantasy geared.

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Just so it's clear, BP has Bryant #2 behind Russell - and in the writeup, they even specifically acknowledge that Russell isn't even the best fantasy prospect on their team - Bryant is. Gotta keep in mind that BP, like many other sites, doesn't speak only in fantasy terms, but in real-life evaluation, too - which matters little to owners, but certainly can explain their rankings quite easily, with that context.

I wonder what %o of people are buying BP for fantasy vs non fantasy. I always assumed it was significantly greater than 50%. Anyway, I like Baseball HQ since it's more fantasy geared.

BP is still a great publication. Some people just destroy their dynasty teams drafting straight off of their rankings. Baseball HQ is a bit more fantasy geared but again isn't entirely based around fantasy and they like BP refuse to take a risk with rankings and favor MLB readiness far too much.

But the truly be good at fantasy baseball you have to understand real baseball. That's the problem I'm seeing with a lot of people on these boards. Everything is fantasy to them. Everything is a stat and it seems like no one even watches games anymore.

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Just so it's clear, BP has Bryant #2 behind Russell - and in the writeup, they even specifically acknowledge that Russell isn't even the best fantasy prospect on their team - Bryant is. Gotta keep in mind that BP, like many other sites, doesn't speak only in fantasy terms, but in real-life evaluation, too - which matters little to owners, but certainly can explain their rankings quite easily, with that context.

I wonder what %o of people are buying BP for fantasy vs non fantasy. I always assumed it was significantly greater than 50%. Anyway, I like Baseball HQ since it's more fantasy geared.

BP is still a great publication. Some people just destroy their dynasty teams drafting straight off of their rankings. Baseball HQ is a bit more fantasy geared but again isn't entirely based around fantasy and they like BP refuse to take a risk with rankings and favor MLB readiness far too much.

But the truly be good at fantasy baseball you have to understand real baseball. That's the problem I'm seeing with a lot of people on these boards. Everything is fantasy to them. Everything is a stat and it seems like no one even watches games anymore.

So would you say everyone is become just another.... statistic

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Just so it's clear, BP has Bryant #2 behind Russell - and in the writeup, they even specifically acknowledge that Russell isn't even the best fantasy prospect on their team - Bryant is. Gotta keep in mind that BP, like many other sites, doesn't speak only in fantasy terms, but in real-life evaluation, too - which matters little to owners, but certainly can explain their rankings quite easily, with that context.

I wonder what %o of people are buying BP for fantasy vs non fantasy. I always assumed it was significantly greater than 50%. Anyway, I like Baseball HQ since it's more fantasy geared.

BP is still a great publication. Some people just destroy their dynasty teams drafting straight off of their rankings. Baseball HQ is a bit more fantasy geared but again isn't entirely based around fantasy and they like BP refuse to take a risk with rankings and favor MLB readiness far too much.

But the truly be good at fantasy baseball you have to understand real baseball. That's the problem I'm seeing with a lot of people on these boards. Everything is fantasy to them. Everything is a stat and it seems like no one even watches games anymore.

Exactly. Watching games is the best way. I remember watching DeGrom a few games during around the all-star break and thought his command was good. But he was beating poor hitting teams in his division so couldn't get a great read on his true ability.

Then I saw him pitch against Seattle. In particular the way he was able to confuse and beat Cano to strike him out twice. Then came his games against the Brewers and he made Gomez and Braun look a little silly.

That is when I nabbed him on the cheap. Watching a handful of ABs against all-star caliber hitting really made his stats mean something.

Watching some MiLB games with Bryant, I was somewhat impressed. The power is real. But you would think his bat was as thin as a twig the way he would swing through strikes. It reminded me watching George Springer. But when a pitcher left a 90MPH fastball over the plate, he crushed it every time.

Addison Russell looks just ready for the MLB. He could adjust quickly and get his bat on anything during games. Watching him hit reminds me a lot of Arenado.

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Floor: .240/.300/.430/15/5 in 400 PAs

Ceiling: .290/.380/.550/35/10 in 620 PAs

I think his floor is higher than that, but the trend seems to be people are down on him now because of the strikeouts (gun shy because of Baez?), so I'm likely in the minority there. I also think if we're talking about his ceiling he's capable of hitting 40+ HRs, especially playing half of his games at The Friendly Confines.

I will say that if people really are gun shy because of Baez, understand that they're completely different hitters.

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