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LyondellBasell

Julio Teheran 2014 Outlook

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My last memory is of him stinking up the joint in LA for the playoffs

But anyway, he was a must start guy in 2012, steady source of Ks.

Interested to hear what you smarter stat guys think of him.

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My last memory is of him stinking up the joint in LA for the playoffs

But anyway, he was a must start guy in 2012, steady source of Ks.

Interested to hear what you smarter stat guys think of him.

Drafted him late last year after his stellar spring and gave up on him very early when he struggled out the box. He impressed me as he seemed to get better as the year progressed which shows he learned something and has stamina. I will keep my eye on him in most drafts with the hope of getting him at a strong value. I trust him more then i do a Corbin.

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I'm a buyer if he's affordable. His K-rate makes him interesting enough to me to potentially take him as a SP3 for the right price. However if everyone else thinks so then I'm not getting the discount his up/down year last year should afford me.

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K rate was very mediocore the first two months if I'm not mistaken which means if you think he progressed as a pitcher, like I do, that overall K rate should be higher this year. Someone with more time feel free to run the numbers but barring injury or fatigue after an innings jump theres not much not to like about Julio this year. Just hope he doesnt get hyped out of my price range

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I like him, but bet he'll be too highly sought this year….the price won't be right.

(However, I can see Medlen slipping further than he should…..he's a Brave I'll target.)

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one of the few that drafted Julio and stuck with him through his early struggles. there was like 3 of us that kept believing last year. he got awfully unlucky in the first few starts if you watched.

that being said, i kept him, at a steep price of $11, so i'm expecting big things from the kid this year. if he can duplicate last year with a bunch more innings, i think we're all happy.

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At the age of 22, in his first MLB season the guy won 14 games with a 3.20 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. I fully expect him to get significantly more strikeouts as well.

In any dynasty/keeper format he should be one of the top young pitchers anyone is thinking about drafting. I also think he'll have significant value in redraft leagues.

In fact, I think he'll finish in the top 8 or so of Cy Young voting in the NL this year. That's how high I am on this kid.

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Medlen hurt, Minor not expected to be ready for the first week or two.. Julio Teheran is probably in line to make the opening day start, yes?

What are some projections on Julio Teheran fellas? He was pretty impressive last season, does he build off of that?

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I just picked him up for Josh Donaldson in a keeper league... I feel like I got a steal, but my thinking is Donaldson regresses.

Anyway, here's what I see...

190IP, 180K, 3.6-8ERA, 14-16W, 1.3WHIP

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I just picked him up for Josh Donaldson in a keeper league... I feel like I got a steal, but my thinking is Donaldson regresses.

Anyway, here's what I see...

190IP, 180K, 3.6-8ERA, 14-16W, 1.3WHIP

that would be regressing quite substantially for Julio. I don't think many are drafting him with these numbers in mind..

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I just picked him up for Josh Donaldson in a keeper league... I feel like I got a steal, but my thinking is Donaldson regresses.

Anyway, here's what I see...

190IP, 180K, 3.6-8ERA, 14-16W, 1.3WHIP

The whip and era you listed would make him a failure of my expectations. I'm thinking a 3.35 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP sounds more reasonable. The 180 k's sounds about right.

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I can see him having control issues is all.

Its only spring but the trend is looking nice.

.069 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13K's, 2BB, 13IP

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Given the Braves issues, the bumping of this thread made my heart skip a beat.

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I have a lot of (blind?) faith as I kept Teheran over Anibal.

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i got him with a 1.10- 1.17 whip sup 3.4 era close to 200 ks in the innings get there wins ? 15

ha those are basically what he had last year had no clue the whip was that low anyways those are safe projections which i am banking on him to get at. i think he could improve on those numbers

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No statistical analysis, just a gut feeling he has a pretty huge season. Something like 17-8, 3.30 era, 180 k's. Wins are always a variable but with the Braves expected excellent pen, I feel a little better thinking they can hold on to a lead. That boom or bust offense of theirs could lead to a lot of goose eggs, but that's not part of my gut feeling!

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He posted better numbers in the second half (almost 2 more K/9IP than first half, but slight uptick in walks as well... nothing too worrisome though). Opponents in the second half batted .209 versus compared to .262 in the first half, but that can also be attributed to the BABIP.

HOWEVER, he had an absurdly high LOB% rate at 80.9%, his walk rates in the minors were never this low like his first season in the majors (so expect a higher BB%), and his K/9IP hasn't been over 8 since 2010 in the minors. I would definitely expect regression in the forms of less Ks, lower strand rate, more walks, so at the end of the day, I don't think he's ready to be classified into SP2 category yet, which is fine because he isn't getting drafted like he is anyways.

Definitely got a little lucky last season, so expect some regression. I think he will be like a 3.40-3.60 ERA guy, 1.20-1.30 WHIP (probably low 1.2s), and a cool 160-175 Ks.

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I can see him having control issues is all.

Its only spring but the trend is looking nice.

.069 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13K's, 2BB, 13IP

I can only hope, but he is still very young. I don't see him repeating last year this year, but in the future he'll be better. Just a feeling.

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I can see him having control issues is all.

Its only spring but the trend is looking nice.

.069 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13K's, 2BB, 13IP

I can only hope, but he is still very young. I don't see him repeating last year this year, but in the future he'll be better. Just a feeling.

To put things into perspective and to show how Spring Training probably doesn't mean jack.... didn't Julio Teheran have an abysmal spring training last season?

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I can see him having control issues is all.

Its only spring but the trend is looking nice.

.069 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13K's, 2BB, 13IP

I can only hope, but he is still very young. I don't see him repeating last year this year, but in the future he'll be better. Just a feeling.

To put things into perspective and to show how Spring Training probably doesn't mean jack.... didn't Julio Teheran have an abysmal spring training last season?

I think you're right. It happens a lot, and sometimes it's meaningless. Sometimes it's a sign of things to come. I'd love it if this guy ends up being a serious threat for the entire season and logs me 8.5K/9 with 185IP and nets me 12+ wins. That would be incredible.

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