Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

LyondellBasell

Julio Teheran 2014 Outlook

Recommended Posts

yea, it's funny no one was posting in here during the game.

his two seamer is almost cartoonish. i don't remember seeing him get so much movement on it last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yea, it's funny no one was posting in here during the game.

his two seamer is almost cartoonish. i don't remember seeing him get so much movement on it last year.

I wanted to post by the end of the 4th but didnt want to jinx it for you owners. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They left him in to hit in the top of the 9th with two on and no outs with the score 1-0. That says something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They left him in to hit in the top of the 9th with two on and no outs with the score 1-0. That says something.

there were 2 outs when there was 2 on. either way, there's no doubt the Braves feel he's an ace.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They left him in to hit in the top of the 9th with two on and no outs with the score 1-0. That says something.

there were 2 outs when there was 2 on. either way, there's no doubt the Braves feel he's an ace.

Top of the 9th. They left him in to hit. He bunted them over. The top of the lineup didn't bring them in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They left him in to hit in the top of the 9th with two on and no outs with the score 1-0. That says something.

there were 2 outs when there was 2 on. either way, there's no doubt the Braves feel he's an ace.

Top of the 9th. They left him in to hit. He bunted them over. The top of the lineup didn't bring them in.

my bad misread that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy can pitch. He usually throws for more K's however, but his stuff is looking good I take it? Maybe more Ks will come?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy can pitch. He usually throws for more K's however, but his stuff is looking good I take it? Maybe more Ks will come?

They should. He's definitely below his average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was just complaing about him to another owner before the game about his K rate, but then he pitches me a CG shutout so I will easily take that with just 4 Ks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hes got a .239 BABIP and a xFIP of 4.66 and FIP of 3.79.

That's real scary..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hes got a .239 BABIP and a xFIP of 4.66 and FIP of 3.79.

That's real scary..

I am not Bill james but it is my understanding those stats don't have a whole lot of meaning over the course of four starts. I think it's be more prudent to take a look at those peripherals after ~ 10 starts and start to make judgments at that point.

That said, I do hope he starts missing more bats. But hard to judge off 4 starts...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hes got a .239 BABIP and a xFIP of 4.66 and FIP of 3.79.

That's real scary..

...if those were fantasy categories, sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is it in every thread I go into for someone who's off to a good start there's always someone throwing negative sabermetrics in your face. So basically we should sell off every player off to a promising start. Yeah, that's how you win leagues...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is it in every thread I go into for someone who's off to a good start there's always someone throwing negative sabermetrics in your face. So basically we should sell off every player off to a promising start. Yeah, that's how you win leagues...

I understand where you're coming from, but on the other hand, "negative sabermetrics" were helpful in me making the decision to sell high on Jordan Zimmermann last June. They shouldn't be the final word, just a piece of the puzzle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is it in every thread I go into for someone who's off to a good start there's always someone throwing negative sabermetrics in your face. So basically we should sell off every player off to a promising start. Yeah, that's how you win leagues...

I understand where you're coming from, but on the other hand, "negative sabermetrics" were helpful in me making the decision to sell high on Jordan Zimmermann last June. They shouldn't be the final word, just a piece of the puzzle.

Exactly. Doesn't mean you should drop a player just because of "negative sabermetrics" but it allows you to see things that used to not be taken into consideration.

But if all the numbers point down.

Again, just pointing out that he now has a xFip of 4.61.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Advanced metrics are a good tool, but you do have to keep in mind their limits. Ricky Nolasco was the king of the, "He may have sucked this year, but he was just really unlucky... look at his xFIP!!!" And Jeremy Hellickson was always the reverse: his xFIP was always 4.5+ and he always turned in something just above 3.

But I wouldn't buy that hard into Teheran's start, regardless. He's not a 1.93ERA pitcher. He's about a 2.8 - 3.3, with a median expectation over 3 instead of under it. His xFIP is also being driven by a K-rate lower than any he has posted in his entire career. So that is also bound for a correction in a positive direction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just like we use xFIP to predict the reality of more common stats such as ERA, you have to look at the stats underlying things such as xFIP to think about their reality.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Advanced metrics are a good tool, but you do have to keep in mind their limits. Ricky Nolasco was the king of the, "He may have sucked this year, but he was just really unlucky... look at his xFIP!!!" And Jeremy Hellickson was always the reverse: his xFIP was always 4.5+ and he always turned in something just above 3.

But I wouldn't buy that hard into Teheran's start, regardless. He's not a 1.93ERA pitcher. He's about a 2.8 - 3.3, with a median expectation over 3 instead of under it. His xFIP is also being driven by a K-rate lower than any he has posted in his entire career. So that is also bound for a correction in a positive direction.

And that's the difference between reciting numbers and understanding them folks, A+ work good sir

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6k's through 4. Hope you're happy.

Looks great out there right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There were a couple line drives hit right at people... Ozuna line drive to 3rd base comes to mind, with a man on 3rd. That ended the inning and saved a run. But still, he had trouble locating his slider early, but got it fixed from the 3rd inning on, and his slider turned nasty. Got a lot of strikeouts that way. Was also painting the black a few times with 92 mph heat. Solid start against a good hitting team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites