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LyondellBasell

Jay Bruce 2014 Outlook

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we've all been there, done that, eaiser to own in roto than h2h ... bla bla bla

gonna be 27 in april.

30 HR lock.

this spring, will the fantasy community be burned out on him or hyped up yet again?

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this spring, will the fantasy community be burned out on him or hyped up yet again?

Haha one way or another like you said the thread will be long.

I've been waiting (like many) for him to breakout into stardom for quite some time now. I'm hoping for career highs across the board.

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I'll never give up on Bruce. He's obviously a guy you should never take in H2H or if you have little patience because he's an extremely streaky hitter, but the stats are there are the end of the year. He has 3 straight 30+ homer and 95+ RBI years. I'm buying again this year in my roto league.

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I'll never give up on Bruce. He's obviously a guy you should never take in H2H or if you have little patience because he's an extremely streaky hitter, but the stats are there are the end of the year. He has 3 straight 30+ homer and 95+ RBI years. I'm buying again this year in my roto league.

He'll always be a guy I'll target in roto leagues. He is who he is. Maybe with some BABIP luck he can hit for an acceptable average but even without that he'll give you his 30 HR, 90+ RBI, 80+ Runs and some steals. Over the last 3 years he's the only OF who has 30 HR/ 90 RBI/ 80 Runs in 3 straight years.

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I've never owned him before - he always goes a bit too high for my liking considering he doesn't steal bases. He'd be an ideal OF2 in roto leagues imo. I'd like to own him someday - I love his consistency and durability.

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He's good. A cheaper, healthier, lower upside Stanton.

Also it looks like Bruce will be going later in drafts than he has in years. Which could give him some good value even if he doesn't breakout.

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He's good. A cheaper, healthier, lower upside Stanton.

Also it looks like Bruce will be going later in drafts than he has in years. Which could give him some good value even if he doesn't breakout.

I'd be thrilled if that happened.

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What do you think his ADP will be 20-25? Where would you draft him?

40-50 like last year

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What do you think his ADP will be 20-25? Where would you draft him?

In NFBC his ADP was 30. In roto leagues, I would take him in the third round and I'd be extremely happy if he fell to the fourth. He's as consistent as it gets.

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I would like him in the fourth in H2H. He has kind of lost that "sexy" appeal because you know what you are getting now.

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As far as rounds go I'm assuming y'all are referring to 12 team leagues? I'm in a 10 team but 12 teams seem to be more popular.

Just trying to gauge an actual number associated with a pick rather than a round.

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As far as rounds go I'm assuming y'all are referring to 12 team leagues? I'm in a 10 team but 12 teams seem to be more popular.

Just trying to gauge an actual number associated with a pick rather than a round.

Typically when we just bring up adp its in a 12 team standard.

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I have seen him ranked in the top 20 of a few sites - 17th at Rotochamp I believe. I guess he's pretty good.

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we've all been there, done that, eaiser to own in roto than h2h ... bla bla bla

gonna be 27 in april.

30 HR lock.

this spring, will the fantasy community be burned out on him or hyped up yet again?

Never posted in the baseball forum before but when baker was the coach in cincy he absolutely HATED hitting lefties back to back. With price in there and Phillips being a nuisance Bruce may be moved up to 4 and have the ability for more RBIs, which can only help his fantasy value.

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this one of the few players in baseball that you pretty much know what you are going to continue to get all while being a top 20 type OF with power. even though he hasn't become what some figured he would he is one safe bet. plus he is 27 and the 27 year old stuff is legit for a lot players.

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He's good. A cheaper, healthier, lower upside Stanton.

OR is he an overpriced Mark Trumbo?

Did I just blow your mind? I think I should have. Not positive where Trumbo is going, but I much rather have Trumbo in 6 than Bruce in 3, A LOT, and I think Trumbo might be a 7-9 round pick.

I think yahoo or someone had a good article about Trumbo 30 homers is a lock for him too, and in Chase 40 isn't outrageous. Only real difference is where the batting average ends up for both. Bruce might be slightly safer, but he's also giving you a bad average.

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He's good. A cheaper, healthier, lower upside Stanton.

OR is he an overpriced Mark Trumbo?

Did I just blow your mind? I think I should have. Not positive where Trumbo is going, but I much rather have Trumbo in 6 than Bruce in 3, A LOT, and I think Trumbo might be a 7-9 round pick.

I think yahoo or someone had a good article about Trumbo 30 homers is a lock for him too, and in Chase 40 isn't outrageous. Only real difference is where the batting average ends up for both. Bruce might be slightly safer, but he's also giving you a bad average.

I think Bruce is giving you an average that doesn't hurt you too much. .257 career with .262 last year. That's probably him, a .260ish hitter. Trumbo definitely has some similarities especially the power, but his floor is much lower due to the way they square (or don't) up the ball. One thing folks that play in OBP or OPS leagues will have to check or be assured with is Trumbo's step forward with taking walks. BB% of 8.0 (It did dip by 1.6% in the 2nd half), but still a horrible .294 OBP% and he is changing leagues as well. Bruce is overdrafted for my tastes typically but understanding power is scarce, he's a very safe source with a game that won't hurt you in other areas and dependent on your settings (OBP, BB, OPS) could be a bit more valuable than 5x5.

With Trumbo, he's most likely going to have a crappy BA unless he starts hitting some more LD. If you don't care about BA and want the HRs, why not just draft Adam Dunn after 200? Dunn is a risk b/c he's older though.....maybe Chris Carter or Brandon Moss 4 rounds later....Trumbo should have a few more runs and steals though.....

BTW, it's really early, but per MDC right now.......Trumbo is going around 30. NO thank you. Bruce is 18th. Nope. But it's early and MDC....

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He's good. A cheaper, healthier, lower upside Stanton.

OR is he an overpriced Mark Trumbo?

Did I just blow your mind? I think I should have. Not positive where Trumbo is going, but I much rather have Trumbo in 6 than Bruce in 3, A LOT, and I think Trumbo might be a 7-9 round pick.

I think yahoo or someone had a good article about Trumbo 30 homers is a lock for him too, and in Chase 40 isn't outrageous. Only real difference is where the batting average ends up for both. Bruce might be slightly safer, but he's also giving you a bad average.

I think Bruce is giving you an average that doesn't hurt you too much. .257 career with .262 last year. That's probably him, a .260ish hitter. Trumbo definitely has some similarities especially the power, but his floor is much lower due to the way they square (or don't) up the ball. One thing folks that play in OBP or OPS leagues will have to check or be assured with is Trumbo's step forward with taking walks. BB% of 8.0 (It did dip by 1.6% in the 2nd half), but still a horrible .294 OBP% and he is changing leagues as well. Bruce is overdrafted for my tastes typically but understanding power is scarce, he's a very safe source with a game that won't hurt you in other areas and dependent on your settings (OBP, BB, OPS) could be a bit more valuable than 5x5.

With Trumbo, he's most likely going to have a crappy BA unless he starts hitting some more LD. If you don't care about BA and want the HRs, why not just draft Adam Dunn after 200? Dunn is a risk b/c he's older though.....maybe Chris Carter or Brandon Moss 4 rounds later....Trumbo should have a few more runs and steals though.....

BTW, it's really early, but per MDC right now.......Trumbo is going around 30. NO thank you. Bruce is 18th. Nope. But it's early and MDC....

Ok if Trumbo is going 30, thats a reach sure because he does have like 230 downside.

However, I think we already see Trumbo as a pretty elite HR guy and now he's moving from a pitchers park to a hitters park. I think 40 HR is a real possibility here. I mean, I was nowhere near drafting Hamilton when he went from Texas to Anaheim. Thats an extreme change of scenery. Trumbo's is pretty extreme too.

I dont like Bruce that much ahead of Trumbo because I could def see Trumbo getting lucky and hitting 260-275 range one year and conversley I could see Bruce having a bad year as well. I think the batting average difference is there, but it's not significant enough where I can justify too many rounds in between, especially since I think Trumbo might hit 40 and give you a couple extra bags.

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He's good. A cheaper, healthier, lower upside Stanton.

OR is he an overpriced Mark Trumbo?

Did I just blow your mind? I think I should have. Not positive where Trumbo is going, but I much rather have Trumbo in 6 than Bruce in 3, A LOT, and I think Trumbo might be a 7-9 round pick.

I think yahoo or someone had a good article about Trumbo 30 homers is a lock for him too, and in Chase 40 isn't outrageous. Only real difference is where the batting average ends up for both. Bruce might be slightly safer, but he's also giving you a bad average.

I was actually JUST coming in here to post this. I appreciate Bruce and his career consistency, but I don't see how much better he is than Trumbo. Trumbo could easily be the NL leader in homers. The difference here is that Bruce is a better bet to hit .250+, but how much is that saying? If they both hit .250-.260 then their stats are exactly the same. I like Bruce, but give me Trumbo 30 picks later. Also, MDC's rankings are all out of whack. Any other ADP sources out there?

edit: I see Bruce went 43 in the last forum draft, and Trumbo 77. I feel like in real drafts Bruce will go higher than that, and that is around where Trumbo goes. At a 34 pick discount, it's an easy choice imo.

Now this isn't the Bruce vs Trumbo thread, but I'm just trying to say that I think Bruce is overrated. We are past the hype or potential phase. If he doesn't get lucky, he'll be a .250 hitter with power. Nothing to go crazy over.

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