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LyondellBasell

Zack Greinke 2014 Outlook

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Kinda pumped he's not pitching in Australia considering the start won't count for (most) leagues.

I completely understand all kinds of different set ups, sizes, and scoring systems. But I do not understand why any league would not count stats from a regular season game. That seems just...well...stupid.

CBS isn't counting them I believe

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per ESPN:

Greinke (calf) tossed four scoreless innings against a Class-A Padres team Monday, the Los Angeles Times reports. Greinke reportedly allowed just one hit, and threw 32 of his 42 pitches for strikes.

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Found this very interesting

http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2013/08/17/zack-greinke-getting-by-without-his-best-pitch/

Greinke has completely abandoned throwing his slider, which was actually his BEST PITCH. He got more K's on that pitch than any other pitch, and after last years elbow issue in spring he pretty much abandoned the pitch for 2013. Now he ended up having a great year, but his k % was the lowest in many years. On the other hand, his SwSt% was actually the second highest of his career. He added a cutter to replace the slider and threw it the second most of any pitch. Slider/Cutter can be similar, but this is clearly not the same pitch. His slider used to be that wipeout diving into the dirt pitch that got people to whiff with two strikes.

Why did he abandon it? Seems like it has to be the elbow thing, either he thinks throwing it will cause him to hurt his elbow, or it hurts his elbow to throw it already. Does it really matter? You could argue no because of last year, but he struck out 10.54/9 in 2011 and that went down to 7.5 over a two year span. If he isn't throwing that slider its unlikely he has the strikeout upside anymore.

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Found this very interesting

http://www.mikescios...his-best-pitch/

Greinke has completely abandoned throwing his slider, which was actually his BEST PITCH. He got more K's on that pitch than any other pitch, and after last years elbow issue in spring he pretty much abandoned the pitch for 2013. Now he ended up having a great year, but his k % was the lowest in many years. On the other hand, his SwSt% was actually the second highest of his career. He added a cutter to replace the slider and threw it the second most of any pitch. Slider/Cutter can be similar, but this is clearly not the same pitch. His slider used to be that wipeout diving into the dirt pitch that got people to whiff with two strikes.

Why did he abandon it? Seems like it has to be the elbow thing, either he thinks throwing it will cause him to hurt his elbow, or it hurts his elbow to throw it already. Does it really matter? You could argue no because of last year, but he struck out 10.54/9 in 2011 and that went down to 7.5 over a two year span. If he isn't throwing that slider its unlikely he has the strikeout upside anymore.

I am going to start researching this soon. I have seen a lot of guys abandoning the slider for a cutter in recent years. Dan Haren is one of the first guys I remember really making the drastic switch. His slider was his best pitch too. I am assuming a lot of guys are doing it to take stress off the elbow but I have not really found any clear cut answers yet. I think this is going to be the new trend as coaches and doctors try to figure out ways for pitchers to cut back on TJ surgery.

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since that article was from August, here are some more recent observations:

"Greinke’s K rate was lowest in May and June as he came back from the broken collarbone then trended up in the second half, peaking in September." (36K/36IP)

"Slider usage was back up to nearly 20% for Sept, too."

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since that article was from August, here are some more recent observations:

"Greinke’s K rate was lowest in May and June as he came back from the broken collarbone then trended up in the second half, peaking in September." (36K/36IP)

"Slider usage was back up to nearly 20% for Sept, too."

Wow if the last line is true that would be encouraging to me. May I ask where you got those quotes? Fangrahs has his slider being thrown 2.7% for the year.

I just checked fangraphs game log and it says he threw basically no sliders in September. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P&type=6&gds=&gde=&season=2013

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since that article was from August, here are some more recent observations:

"Greinke’s K rate was lowest in May and June as he came back from the broken collarbone then trended up in the second half, peaking in September." (36K/36IP)

"Slider usage was back up to nearly 20% for Sept, too."

Wow if the last line is true that would be encouraging to me. May I ask where you got those quotes? Fangrahs has his slider being thrown 2.7% for the year.

I just checked fangraphs game log and it says he threw basically no sliders in September. http://www.fangraphs...de=&season=2013

strange, I took it from one of their authors/editors in a comments section.

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since that article was from August, here are some more recent observations:

"Greinke’s K rate was lowest in May and June as he came back from the broken collarbone then trended up in the second half, peaking in September." (36K/36IP)

"Slider usage was back up to nearly 20% for Sept, too."

Wow if the last line is true that would be encouraging to me. May I ask where you got those quotes? Fangrahs has his slider being thrown 2.7% for the year.

I just checked fangraphs game log and it says he threw basically no sliders in September. http://www.fangraphs...de=&season=2013

strange, I took it from one of their authors/editors in a comments section.

I wonder if they meant his cutter?

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since that article was from August, here are some more recent observations:

"Greinke’s K rate was lowest in May and June as he came back from the broken collarbone then trended up in the second half, peaking in September." (36K/36IP)

"Slider usage was back up to nearly 20% for Sept, too."

Wow if the last line is true that would be encouraging to me. May I ask where you got those quotes? Fangrahs has his slider being thrown 2.7% for the year.

I just checked fangraphs game log and it says he threw basically no sliders in September. http://www.fangraphs...de=&season=2013

strange, I took it from one of their authors/editors in a comments section.

I wonder if they meant his cutter?

That's a ton of sliders if true.

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http://www.brooksbas...1/2014&s_type=2

http://img17.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=46996_Greinke_pitchusage_2013_122_344lo.jpg

I really don't know what that article said or why someone is saying Greinke "abandonned" his slider. Unless Brooksbaseball is wrong, which I really doubt. He was using the slider less than 20% earlier in the year, and even less than 1% in June 2013.

But he isn't "abandonning" the slider. I wish people who go look up the background data more often before they make hyperbolic statements about what someone else may or may not have implied somewhere in the news press. More than half of that stuff is really just elaborate conjecture and speculation. Not worth your time bothering to read.

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http://www.brooksbas...1/2014&s_type=2

http://img17.imageve...3_122_344lo.jpg

I really don't know what that article said or why someone is saying Greinke "abandonned" his slider. Unless Brooksbaseball is wrong, which I really doubt. He was using the slider less than 20% earlier in the year, and even less than 1% in June 2013.

But he isn't "abandonning" the slider. I wish people who go look up the background data more often before they make hyperbolic statements about what someone else may or may not have implied somewhere in the news press. More than half of that stuff is really just elaborate conjecture and speculation. Not worth your time bothering to read.

Seems like a pitch calssification issue- look at the month by month, it says he used his cutter 0% of the time the last 4 months of the year, and it has his slider % rising those months.

It's odd considering the article has another graph from brooks baseball which has his slider not being thrown after the first two months as well, which is what fangraphs has it as.

http://www.mikescios...e_velo_2013.jpg

Another fangraphs article which summarizes everything- http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/zack-greinke-reverses-fip-era-gap-but-loses-strikeouts-along-the-way/

Look at this video of 2011 highlights of a 9 strikeout game. This is the year he had a 10.5 K/9. I think all but 1 of the k's came on his slider. Did he still throw that pitch last year, or was it a harder less breaking cutter? I honestly am asking for people who watched.

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Wombat, I'll go look for that video and watch. You might be right about the classification pitch thing. I'm not sure how much human decision making went into the collation of the data that Brooksbaseball provides.

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I dug up a September 7th, 2013 game at Cincinnati where he struckout 9 and got 11 groundballs to 5 flyballs. I saw a breaking pitch that dropped off sharply right when it got to the plate and came in at 84 to 86 mph. He put it all over the place, up, at the knees, inside.

It's definitely a slider. He uses the pitch as a strikeout pitch, and relies on foul balls to get strikes, then throws the wipeout slider. He did this to Ludwick and Frazier and Mesoroco in the 4th inning when he struckout the side. In the 2nd inning, I thought I saw him throw it 4 times to Zack Cosart before Cosart swung through the changeup. Cozart fouled it off all four times.

It's got a little more buckle than dart, but it's definitely a slider.

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Wondering why they chose Ryu over Greinke for the 2nd start in Australia. Seems like that's not a choice that would give them the biggest chance to win. I was pretty pumped to essentially get an extra game out of him, but oh well.

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Wondering why they chose Ryu over Greinke for the 2nd start in Australia. Seems like that's not a choice that would give them the biggest chance to win. I was pretty pumped to essentially get an extra game out of him, but oh well.

Coming back from injury, wasn't there choice.

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Wondering why they chose Ryu over Greinke for the 2nd start in Australia. Seems like that's not a choice that would give them the biggest chance to win. I was pretty pumped to essentially get an extra game out of him, but oh well.

considering he completely dissed the idea of playing these games in Australia, they might just be shielding him from a smattering of boos from the locals.

but the slider thing is good to hear, thanks for looking that up, napster.

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is there any indication that he is hurt? read something that during his last outing he had something on his arm.

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is there any indication that he is hurt? read something that during his last outing he had something on his arm.

I didn't see anything about his arm, source?

His back did appear to be bothering him in his final inning, and then he proceeded to give up two homers. He did however get off the mound quickly for a put out at 1st base. Maybe something to monitor but seems like a non-issue to me.

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Heard an impressive and interesting stat on Greinke last night on Sirius XM. He has given up 2 ER or less in his last 16 consecutive starts. That's pretty crazy to think he's been that consistent for a half a season of starts. Only 1 other pitcher since 1900 has accomplished that, or so I'm told.

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Heard an impressive and interesting stat on Greinke last night on Sirius XM. He has given up 2 ER or less in his last 16 consecutive starts. That's pretty crazy to think he's been that consistent for a half a season of starts. Only 1 other pitcher since 1900 has accomplished that, or so I'm told.

It is actually 19 consecutive starts if you include the playoffs. July 25th of last year was the last time he gave up more than 2 runs (he gave up 4). That is pretty valuable for H2H leagues where consistency is the key to success.

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Really awesome story from Eno Sarris with Greinke. Turns out I wasn't the only one intrigued by the whole slider/cutter thing.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/staying-ahead-means-plenty-of-tinkering-for-pitchers-042114

Summary- his slider was the best pitch he's ever had in 2009 but it just got less effective, and once he started throwing a cutter the two pitches meshed together and both became average. Now he's back to throwing his slider and has scrapped the cutter which is different from last year. He admits the slider isn't the same as it was when it was a wipeout strikeout pitch, but its still good.

Last year he threw 2% slider 17% cutter, this year he has thrown 0% cutter and 18% slider. So all the speculation that his elbow is messed up seems to be wrong, it was all by design. I think last years reduced strikeout rate was due in large part to the lack of sliders. This year its way up early on and I think he will finish with a k per inning or so if he keeps using it.

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Bumping him for being an ace so far. I've read many of these articles of how cognizant Zack is of his repertoire. Good to see a guy who's making over $140 mil not stubbornly rely on what got him here. He's clearly just a great pitcher who is further evolving when he sees something he can exploit. I appreciate that in a pitcher. While his fastball velocity erodes he has matured in his secondary offerings. While obviously very early in the season, his swinging strike and contact rates are the best of his career even with his fastball being at its lowest velocity in his career. Watching him tonight, that fastball does look faster than 91 and he generally spots it so well (the homer ball was a horrible miss of the target and just stuck over the middle of the plate) that it has still been a darn effective pitch. With a low fly ball rate and never one to give up too many homers, imagine his numbers if/when the long balls stop flying out of the park? With a 40:5 k:bb in 29.1 innings, he has dominated the strike zone and I expect him to be a top 8 pitcher if he can stay healthy.

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Fastball at 91mph at most, got couple strike outs looking with it also some swing and miss well placed in the zone. Slider at 84mph, wipeout pitch. Also threw a slow curve around 69 mph, Left a fastball in the middle of the zone to jayson nix I think for a homerun. Dominate outing for Greinke

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He throws in the low 90's purposely these days for improved command. The fastball velo is no problem at all... Greinke is a beast, wish I owned him.

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I expect him to be a top 8 pitcher if he can stay healthy.

Not to get too off topic, but who are you top 8 as of right now?

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