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Kobe_No_Means_No

2013-2014 Playoffs NBA Finals Game Thread

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Why? It actually makes more sense to me. In the old 2-3-2 format, if both teams win their home games like they're supposed to through the first 5 games that puts the team with homecourt advantage in a "win-or-go-home" position in game 6. In the 2-2-1-1-1 format more pressure is placed on the team that doesn't have homecourt advantage if both teams win their home games throughout.

Because CHAMPIONSHIP teams win on the road. If you can't win away from home you deserve to lose.

Well neither format forces the team with the better regular season record to win on the road in order to win the championship. I'm just saying that the 2-3-2 format seems to me to almost be a disadvantage for the team with the better record.

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Spurs bench has to come up BIG if they're going to win this series. I mean they are the best bench in the league anyway so it's not a stretch that they will outplay Miami's bench.

Spurs in 7 that's my prediction.

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I think the 2-2-1-1-1 format actually favors the Heat. The 2-3-2 format, the lower seed (in this case, the Heat), is given the difficult task of having to win 3 consecutive home games. The Heat did accomplish that against OKC in 2011, but that's a rare feat.

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I think the 2-2-1-1-1 format actually favors the Heat. The 2-3-2 format, the lower seed (in this case, the Heat), is given the difficult task of having to win 3 consecutive home games. The Heat did accomplish that against OKC in 2011, but that's a rare feat.

Really? Everyone I heard that talked about the old format said it favored the lower-seeded team.

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No one should have 3 straight home games in a series. It throws everything off imo

2-2-1-1-1 is perfect

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Spurs in 5 since the new format. Just wait and see...

B)

Spurs in 5 is also what I got...Enjoy the games my fellow SAS fan.

Might be the last ride for Duncan, Parker, Manu...it will be a fun one...I've been waiting 12 months for this...let's do this...

Ginobiliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

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I think the 2-2-1-1-1 format actually favors the Heat. The 2-3-2 format, the lower seed (in this case, the Heat), is given the difficult task of having to win 3 consecutive home games. The Heat did accomplish that against OKC in 2011, but that's a rare feat.

Really? Everyone I heard that talked about the old format said it favored the lower-seeded team.

I never understood why the old format would favor the lower seed, simply because it's such a hard task to win 3 straight games.

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I think the 2-2-1-1-1 format actually favors the Heat. The 2-3-2 format, the lower seed (in this case, the Heat), is given the difficult task of having to win 3 consecutive home games. The Heat did accomplish that against OKC in 2011, but that's a rare feat.

Really? Everyone I heard that talked about the old format said it favored the lower-seeded team.

I never understood why the old format would favor the lower seed, simply because it's such a hard task to win 3 straight games.

Because those 3 straight games are home games...

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Game 7 at home is the most important factor in any format especially with these two teams facing each other who are seemingly even on paper and based on their history.

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Is it still a good idea for Pop to continue with the strategy of going under screens and daring Lebron to shoot jumpers? Might not work so well this time around, IMO. It worked the first 3 games of the Finals, partly due to the shock factor (of being left so wide open for the jumper), and Lebron's insistence to drive right into a packed defense. First 3 games, Lebron was 21-54 FGs (.389 FG%).

The last 4 games, Lebron shot 46-96 (.479 FG%). Still not his usual efficiency, but he was more prepared to take the open jumper, and then mix it up with paint attacks.

IMO, Pop can't do the same, exact game plan on Lebron. Yes, you'd like Lebron to settle for jumpers, but you can't just give him all day to set his feet and shoot.

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Is it still a good idea for Pop to continue with the strategy of going under screens and daring Lebron to shoot jumpers? Might not work so well this time around, IMO. It worked the first 3 games of the Finals, partly due to the shock factor (of being left so wide open for the jumper), and Lebron's insistence to drive right into a packed defense. First 3 games, Lebron was 21-54 FGs (.389 FG%).

The last 4 games, Lebron shot 46-96 (.479 FG%). Still not his usual efficiency, but he was more prepared to take the open jumper, and then mix it up with paint attacks.

IMO, Pop can't do the same, exact game plan on Lebron. Yes, you'd like Lebron to settle for jumpers, but you can't just give him all day to set his feet and shoot.

Why? He's a worse jump shooter this year than last......

13-14':

16-23 feet: 37.6%

3 Pointer: 37.5%

12-13':

16-23 feet: 44.4%

3 Pointer: 39.7%

His shooting percentage at the rim is over 75% both years and this year it was close to 80%.

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@Patrick Bateman, despite the slight decrease in percentages, Lebron is still a great mid-range jump-shooter. He's proven it. I think Pop has to mix it up. If you're Pop, you can't do the same game plan and just let Lebron set his feet and shoot. In Game 7, Pop basically laid back on Lebron, with no adjustments! That was a blunder. Pop can't be doing that again, esp. when Lebron is clearly hot.

Edited by StreetCred

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Why? It actually makes more sense to me. In the old 2-3-2 format, if both teams win their home games like they're supposed to through the first 5 games that puts the team with homecourt advantage in a "win-or-go-home" position in game 6. In the 2-2-1-1-1 format more pressure is placed on the team that doesn't have homecourt advantage if both teams win their home games throughout.

Because CHAMPIONSHIP teams win on the road. If you can't win away from home you deserve to lose.

So if both teams win on their home floor all the way through game 7, both teams deserve not to win a title? lol wut?

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Is it still a good idea for Pop to continue with the strategy of going under screens and daring Lebron to shoot jumpers? Might not work so well this time around, IMO. It worked the first 3 games of the Finals, partly due to the shock factor (of being left so wide open for the jumper), and Lebron's insistence to drive right into a packed defense. First 3 games, Lebron was 21-54 FGs (.389 FG%).

The last 4 games, Lebron shot 46-96 (.479 FG%). Still not his usual efficiency, but he was more prepared to take the open jumper, and then mix it up with paint attacks.

IMO, Pop can't do the same, exact game plan on Lebron. Yes, you'd like Lebron to settle for jumpers, but you can't just give him all day to set his feet and shoot.

Why? He's a worse jump shooter this year than last......

13-14':

16-23 feet: 37.6%

3 Pointer: 37.5%

12-13':

16-23 feet: 44.4%

3 Pointer: 39.7%

His shooting percentage at the rim is over 75% both years and this year it was close to 80%.

Those percentages don't really show much as he doesn't really take that many jump shots in games, and majority of his shots are at the rim. However, there are very few things you can do to guard LeBron, so keeping him away from the rim (where he's shooting around an insane 80% and about half his shot attempts come from there) should be the first thing on the Spurs' list.

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A guy that shoots 37% from that range is considered a "great" jump shooter? Only StreetCred

Your hate for Lebron is clouding your brain. .376 FG% from 16-23 feet is still above the mean. He shot .447 from that distance just a year ago, which is GREAT. The slight percentage decrease (from .447 to .376) is mainly due to LOWER ATTEMPTS from that distance, and that is by design. In 2013, he attempted only 11% of his shots from 16-23 feet. This year, he only attempted 8% of his shots from that distance. When push comes to shove, and you give him enough attempts and looks, Lebron can be an efficient mid-range jump shooter. The Spurs can't play with fire again and simply back off on Lebron every time. The guy is too smart, too good. I remember Lebron in Game 7, shooting uncontested jumper after uncontested jumper, and Pop NEVER made any adjustment, even signaling to Kawhi to back off Lebron... That was a blunder, IMO. Pop needs to re-consider his defensive scheme on Lebron, mix it up a bit more.

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Maybe my math is off but if a guy is shooting close to 80% when at the rim and only 37% from mid-range, I'm stepping back and letting him beat me with the jumper than having him get to the rim and possibly get a three point play.

You said he can be an efficient jump shooter but right now with the lower attempt percentage 37% is nowhere near efficient.

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@RedDog, you need to look deeper... .376 FG% from 16-23 feet is still above the league average, and a year ago, he shot .447 from that distance, even while only taking 11% of his attempts in that range. In last year's Finals, Lebron figured it out and hurt them (46 out of 96 FGs) in Games 4 to 7. Pop wanted to play the %s, and LEBRON PASSED THE TEST. Pop can't just simply allow Lebron to take uncontested jumpers.

Edited by StreetCred

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All I'm saying is, Pop's gotta mix it up the coverage on Lebron.. not after last year, unless you really think Lebron's that stupid. He's not gonna shy away from the jumper if it's wide open, not after last year. It only worked for 3 games, and then Lebron figured it out in the last 4 games.

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LeBron isn't the only player they need to worry about. Wade has been playing like another LeBron on the team, so that puts even more pressure on the Spurs' defense.

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@Patrick Bateman, despite the slight decrease in percentages, Lebron is still a great mid-range jump-shooter. He's proven it. I think Pop has to mix it up. If you're Pop, you can't do the same game plan and just let Lebron set his feet and shoot. In Game 7, Pop basically laid back on Lebron, with no adjustments! That was a blunder. Pop can't be doing that again, esp. when Lebron is clearly hot.

5 out of 7 games he shot under 40% from outside of 16 feet or more. He had two big shooting games. I think San Antonio will live with those odds all day. In fact in the losses he shot 21%. And the Spurs do vary up their defenses dependent on situation, place on the floor, and time on the clock. The numbers are clear because this year he made almost 4 out of 5 shots at the rim and within ten feet he shoots at 55%. He's also easily the best passer on the Heat so doubling him will often lead to good shots for others. I'm not sure you've thought this through. Lebron is the best player in the world and you can't stop him from doing everything or maybe anything. He's going to be productive doing something, it's about trying to limit his effectiveness. Seems having him shoot long 2's gives the best odds.

Those percentages don't really show much as he doesn't really take that many jump shots in games, and majority of his shots are at the rim.

Huh? He took 644 shots from 16 feet or deeper this year. I don't really understand what you're trying to say. Not enough shots to have a sample size? Should we use a larger sample size like the 11-12' season where he shot 645 shots in 62 games? That would equal to about 853 shots from that range over a season. He was 37.2% and 32.5% respectively. Is that better? Again, not really sure what you're trying to say.

The slight percentage decrease (from .447 to .376) is mainly due to LOWER ATTEMPTS from that distance, and that is by design.

This is, of course, entirely incorrect. 7% is a large delta. if Kevin Durant all of sudden started shooting 43% from the field, would that be a slight decrease or large one? He shot about 70 less shots from that range this year. He'd have to hit about 50 of those to shoot the same percentage. Or about 71.5% in those 50 shots. Extremely unlikely.

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Seems having him shoot long 2's gives the best odds.

Sure, this gives you the best "odds" to limit Lebron's effectiveness. But you can't make Lebron shoot uncontested jumpers, like in last year's Game 7. That was a blunder by Pop. It was basically, "we'll give you all the jumpers you want, and if you make it, we'll tip our hats". Well, Lebron made too many. And Pop had to tip his hat.

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Well if we're looking at his current performance, postseason stats, he's shooting 42.3% outside 16 ft or more. Which is around where he hit last season in the playoffs. I just don't believe that LeBron has become a worse jump shooter because of his degraded performance during the regular season, and I'm pretty sure Pop's not going to use that statistic to change up his coaching judgments. Pop already knows LeBron's biggest weakness is his jump shot. Pop also knows that leaving LeBron wide open for jump shots will increase the probability of him knocking it down. That 37% of whatever is going to look a lot bigger if you're going to give him enough room for him to settle into his shot. You also don't want to leave LeBron open on 3's, as he's an above average 3pt shooter in the league and it raises his effective FG%.

Edited by Eternal
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