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sya

Kevin Durant 2014-2015 Season Outlook

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What if I'm not at all confident in my draft skills? Seriously I'm a FBB virgin, first year player. Should I pass and take LeBron/whomever?

Then I would take Anthony Davis or James Harden at #1. But I'm sure you'll find some people here that would disagree and put LeBron or maybe Steph Curry over those guys.

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What about drafting KD then looking to trade him for some good stuff, eg Westbrook + 1 other, or even Davis + 1 other?

(I have the #1 pick in my league's draft later today)

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Well this news was a major buzz kill this morning...

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In roto, does he drop out of the first round trade value? Thats probably around 20+ games missed. Planning to trade for him but i dont know how to compute the value lost so can anyone help? Thanks

I'm not sure if this calculation makes sense but I'm taking his 2013-2014 9-cat value according to BBM and multiplying that by 62 (20 games missed out of 82):

1.06 (BBM value) * 62 (expected games played) = 65.72

Then I'm taking the 13th ranked player (1st pick of 2nd round in a 12 team league) for 2013-2014 9-cat according to BBM and assuming he plays all 82 games. ie. LaMarcus Aldridge:

0.37 (BBM value) * 82 (games played) = 30.34

Clearly taking Durant for 62 games provides MUCH more value than a 13th pick for all 82 games, unless you really luck out on a breakout superstar with the 13th pick. There exists the risk that Durant has some setbacks or other complications that limit his games played but he would have to play only about 30 games compared to the 13th pick's 82 to equal their value in roto.

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I don't understand this. Durant starts to drop all the way down the list?? I wouldn't draft him no where past pick 3 even with this injury. Maybe he moves from 1 to 3. But people are thinking short term. I don't mind drafting him 3rd pick and sitting him on my bench maybe a month or 2. And then the 2nd half of the season he rewards me by single handedly pulling me into fantasy playoffs. Which is what counts most importantly. Assuming you make it to playoffs. If your somewhat skilled in fantasy basketball. You should be able to draft a strong enough balanced team that can pull the weight while durant sits.

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Thanks lusamsiam! Made a lot of sense. Now ima lowball the kd owner with an al horford, and hope he bites.

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I don't understand this. Durant starts to drop all the way down the list?? I wouldn't draft him no where past pick 3 even with this injury. Maybe he moves from 1 to 3. But people are thinking short term. I don't mind drafting him 3rd pick and sitting him on my bench maybe a month or 2. And then the 2nd half of the season he rewards me by single handedly pulling me into fantasy playoffs. Which is what counts most importantly. Assuming you make it to playoffs. If your somewhat skilled in fantasy basketball. You should be able to draft a strong enough balanced team that can pull the weight while durant sits.

The nature of his injury is what makes him a risky first pick because there's always a chance that 1) the fracture may not heal properly, 2) re-fracture it 3) sit out some games or get restricted minutes.

A high ankle sprain can sideline a player for a month or two as well but the risks are not on the same magnitude as a bone fracture.

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His return will likely be inbetween November 23rd (6 weeks) and December 7th (8 weeks). That means he misses 15 (6 weeks) to 20 (8 weeks) games. KD plays about 20-25% of the season, therefore his value drops by 20-25%. Of course, you have to take into consideration that his value rises considerably after he returns from injury, and his value is worth more in the end of the season rather than the beginning of the season if you are in H2H due to playoffs. You also have to consider how much 'value' you have in healthy KD over other players. KD was the unanimous No.1 before injury and most would take him over Lebron or Davis, but by how much? That would affect where you would draft him. Durant might be a 2nd round pick in roto since your playing without your 1st round when it counts for your championship. As long are you make playoffs in your league (which is about the top 50% of the league) then you have KD when it counts. If you chose KD with the 1st overall pick, then you may not have made playoffs anyway. 20 games without KD in H2H will affect your standings but will probably not affect your playoff status.

I don't understand this. Durant starts to drop all the way down the list?? I wouldn't draft him no where past pick 3 even with this injury. Maybe he moves from 1 to 3. But people are thinking short term. I don't mind drafting him 3rd pick and sitting him on my bench maybe a month or 2. And then the 2nd half of the season he rewards me by single handedly pulling me into fantasy playoffs. Which is what counts most importantly. Assuming you make it to playoffs. If your somewhat skilled in fantasy basketball. You should be able to draft a strong enough balanced team that can pull the weight while durant sits.

I don't understand this. Durant starts to drop all the way down the list?? I wouldn't draft him no where past pick 3 even with this injury. Maybe he moves from 1 to 3. But people are thinking short term. I don't mind drafting him 3rd pick and sitting him on my bench maybe a month or 2. And then the 2nd half of the season he rewards me by single handedly pulling me into fantasy playoffs. Which is what counts most importantly. Assuming you make it to playoffs. If your somewhat skilled in fantasy basketball. You should be able to draft a strong enough balanced team that can pull the weight while durant sits.


The nature of his injury is what makes him a risky first pick because there's always a chance that 1) the fracture may not heal properly, 2) re-fracture it 3) sit out some games or get restricted minutes.

A high ankle sprain can sideline a player for a month or two as well but the risks are not on the same magnitude as a bone fracture.

If I recall correctly, JaVale McGee (5 games) and Jrue Holiday (34) both had normal fractures and missed the rest of the season after they were injured. McGee's status for the season opener is still in doubt. Those who had Trumbo in fantasy baseball know how bad this injury can because of re-fracturing risk. I don't know how Durant's Jones Fracture is different than normal fractures so this may be a unique scenario.

Personally, I like to play with some high-risk high-reward picks. In H2H I'm hoping to get a back-end 1st rounder and hope KD falls to me. Of course he might be a bust (never said that before about Durant) if he is out longer than expected or refractues it but a Durant/Ibaka, Durant/Wall, or Durant/Aldridge team would be awesome to have. Where I take him would be dependent on where other teams take him, but depending on Yahoo ADP (if it updates him, still havent updated for the Rondo injury), if its low enough, I might reach for him.

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I don't understand this. Durant starts to drop all the way down the list?? I wouldn't draft him no where past pick 3 even with this injury. Maybe he moves from 1 to 3. But people are thinking short term. I don't mind drafting him 3rd pick and sitting him on my bench maybe a month or 2. And then the 2nd half of the season he rewards me by single handedly pulling me into fantasy playoffs. Which is what counts most importantly. Assuming you make it to playoffs. If your somewhat skilled in fantasy basketball. You should be able to draft a strong enough balanced team that can pull the weight while durant sits.

The nature of his injury is what makes him a risky first pick because there's always a chance that 1) the fracture may not heal properly, 2) re-fracture it 3) sit out some games or get restricted minutes.

A high ankle sprain can sideline a player for a month or two as well but the risks are not on the same magnitude as a bone fracture.

To each his own. Everyone will draft with their own strategy in mind. The 2nd half of the season is what counts to me. Yes I agree. Healing process on that type of injury is what's important. But the season hasn't even started yet. I'm pretty sure Durant will be ready towards fantasy playoffs. Which when he does take the court. He will hand you first round.. first pick value. Wanting to take his team to the playoffs. And whoever owns him at that time is about to experience fantasy gold lol.

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Not everyone is playing h2h jclee4. id bump him down to mid first round value after the big6 for roto, but for leagues who havent drafted yet, id still gamble a top3 pick for him after ad and lebron

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Not everyone is playing h2h jclee4. id bump him down to mid first round value after the big6 for roto, but for leagues who havent drafted yet, id still gamble a top3 pick for him after ad and lebron

Who would you draft ahead of him?. Just out of curiosity

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for roto, ad, lebron, curry, cp3 and harden. For h2h id still get him at 1 confidently.

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for roto, ad, lebron, curry, cp3 and harden. For h2h id still get him at 1 confidently.

Makes sense. I agree.

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Thanks lusamsiam! Made a lot of sense. Now ima lowball the kd owner with an al horford, and hope he bites.

That would be a great move IMO, especially since Horford's starting to be a bit of an injury scare also.

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for roto, ad, lebron, curry, cp3 and harden. For h2h id still get him at 1 confidently.

Is there a reason to not go for AD with the #1?

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for roto, ad, lebron, curry, cp3 and harden. For h2h id still get him at 1 confidently.

Is there a reason to not go for AD with the #1?

Injury concerns.

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heres some info bout jones fracture

Chris Singleton had on last season. The news broke on September 18th. He did not see game action for almost 10 weeks on November 28th.

Damian Lillard articile (http://www.ksl.com/?sid=13705076)

Articles from when Damian Lillard say 10 to 12 weeks.

http://www.southfloridasportsmedicine.com/jones-fracture.html

If the x-ray does show that the bone has fractured in the region with poor circulation, conservative and surgical treatment options are offered. Conservative care includes a nonweightbearing cast for eight weeks. A return to sports may be 3-4 months. There is a high risk of refracture to this area in athletes with a high arch foot. In those patients surgical treatment may be performed initially to allow the fracture to heal more rapidly and return the athlete back to their sporting activity. This would require nonweightbearing for six weeks in a boot. Athletes can usually return to activity following the use of screw fixation in approximately 10-12 weeks.

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for roto, ad, lebron, curry, cp3 and harden. For h2h id still get him at 1 confidently.

Is there a reason to not go for AD with the #1?

Injury concerns.

Yeah but for a fracture like this, it's possible for re injury as well. Not only that but setbacks happen all the time for fractures

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I just got him in a draft only 12 hrs ago. This can't be happening....

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The top 2 are injury concerns (AD and KD) so the next in line would be Curry. Paul & Lebron have injuries as well and terrible playoff schedules. Toss up between Harden and Curry if you ask me.

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Paul & Lebron have injuries as well and terrible playoff schedules.

Paul isn't injured, injury prone maybe, and the Clippers have a 434 playoff schedule.

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Paul & Lebron have injuries as well and terrible playoff schedules.

Paul isn't injured, injury prone maybe, and the Clippers have a 434 playoff schedule.

Yeah that's what I mean injury prone and the playoff schedule I was referring to Lebron.

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Might be a silly question but can someone explain to me why lbj is considered to have a bad schedule? I don't fully understand this for a h2h schedule.

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