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DocJ

2015 Rotoworld Mock Real League

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Winky, you can post in other threads about players although someone in here may read it and clue in on a player you might want to draft.

Some people just don't want you to talk about non drafted players in this thread.

And this is where you lose me. I don't care if anyone knows my strategy, my ranks, my plans, players I like or dislike. Anyone who reads the football forum already knows my exact thoughts on every player that matters.

This draft, as far as it was explained to me when I was invited, was to benefit the community as a whole.

It's suppose to be a window into the minds of established members of the forum (spoiler alert, we're just as dumb as you!).

My goal this year, will be the same as last year. To best inform those following along, why I'm doing what I'm doing. Do you know how many people, including myself, are curious about WHY Robrain chose Calvin Johnson? None of us need him to explain that Calvin Johnson is a good fantasy player, we know that. What's helpful is why he chose him over the consensus #1 WR. (I won't dare say his name, because rules). Why did he decide to go WR at the 3 spot at all? How does drafting WR in the 1st, alter his plans moving forward. Why did he 180 from his fantasy logic last year? In a 6pt league did you even consider a QB? Did the allure of the consensus #1 TE cross his mind? If his logic truly was upside of 2k yards, did last years WR PPG leader give him pause? How does he define 'safety'?

These are things that are helpful, and can be applied to other drafts moving forward. These are things that are valuable to the community as a whole. None of us benefit from being reminded that MegaTron is a generational talent who has immense upside, that should be common knowledge to anyone who cares enough to be on a forum.

Most importantly, none of the other 12 participants can honestly tell me, that Robrain mentioning Antionio Brown, Andrew luck, Rob Gronkowski, or Odel Beckham Jr, respectively, is going to hinder their draft. Either I misunderstood the intent of this league, in which case I'll just shut up, draft and compete, otherwise I'm going to continue being the long winded, opinionated, number crunching, son of a ***** I am. So you let me know DocJ! I'm ready to roll either way.

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Most importantly, none of the other 12 participants can honestly tell me, that Robrain mentioning Antionio Brown, Andrew luck, Rob Gronkowski, or Odel Beckham Jr, respectively, is going to hinder their draft.

I think maybe the rule is for later on in the draft? Maybe player x who is thinking about picking Momah doesn't want you mentioning Momah when you're picking your tight end because it's their super secret sleeper. IE: "I was going to pick Momah since he averaged 35 ppg in the arena league last season, but I figured I'd roll with Vernon Davis since he's an actual NFL player"

That's the only thing I can think of.

Do you know how many people, including myself, are curious about WHY Robrain chose Calvin Johnson?

I chalked it up to the same reason insects fly into those bug zappers.

But I would really like to read the six paragraph explanation of why 29.9 year old Calvin Johnson who has missed games in 5 of his 8 seasons including the past two is safer than any of the other top WRs who shall not be named.

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Most importantly, none of the other 12 participants can honestly tell me, that Robrain mentioning Antionio Brown, Andrew luck, Rob Gronkowski, or Odel Beckham Jr, respectively, is going to hinder their draft.

I think maybe the rule is [most important] for later on in the draft? Maybe player x who is thinking about picking Momah doesn't want you mentioning Momah when you're picking your tight end because it's their super secret sleeper. IE: "I was going to pick Momah since he averaged 35 ppg in the arena league last season, but I figured I'd roll with Vernon Davis since he's an actual NFL player"

That's the only thing I can think of.

Bingo.

It still matters though, especially when people are on their phones (tiny screens) and try to make a pick quickly. They start scrolling, see an undrafted player's name mentioned, check to see if that player has been picked yet, then type in that player's name. Bam! Player drafted, primarily because they saw the name. Another example, if a player is falling in the draft, and multiple managers start pointing that out, other managers that might not have been paying careful attention now are fully alerted to that fact. It kind of takes some of the skill out of the draft process, like if your buddy in the audience could shout out the answer to you during Who Wants To Be A Millionaire.

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*notices thread being updated*

*gets excited thinking 'he must have picked!'

*checks thread for pick*

tumblr_lrfbuvSS761qc6739.gif

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I'm not going to be a draft Nazi, you guys are grown men....most of the time :rolleyes:

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Winky, you can post in other threads about players although someone in here may read it and clue in on a player you might want to draft.

That is actually why I decided to just take a vacation from the Rotoworld Forums during this offseason. In past drafts in this league, I kind of felt that I had to reach considerably on certain players in order to guarantee that I ended up with them on my roster. A large part of the reason I felt I had to reach for them, was because people already knew my opinions on them going into the draft. If another manager knows I'm high on Player X, they might reach for that player before one of my picks. This means I have to reach even more than I normally would, in order to guarantee that I get that player.

[PLAYER NAMES REDACTED - forgot we already started this draft - go look at my previous drafts, you can see who the obvious reaches I'm referring to are]

[REDACTED] last year, and I think [REDACTED] the year before are just some of the names I did this with. Pretty sure [REDACTED], [REDACTED], and [REDACTED] (2013, the year I won) were added to my roster by over-reaching as well. Lots of others too. Hell, no one would have even known Ifeanyi Momah's name last year if I hadn't made that thread, I should have been able to easily take him as an expendable final round pick. I ended up taking him at the very beginning of Round 14. That's pretty much a 2-round reach. I should have been able to snag him at the very bottom of Round 15, with no worries about anyone at all potentially competing for him.

Ultimately, I felt that was something holding me back from drafting as well as I should be in this league.

So this year, I decided to hold back on my public analysis of players until after I completed this draft. I want to allow for this draft to evolve naturally as any other draft would. I wouldn't tell anyone in my Friends-and-Family league which players I'm high on, and because of that, I end up getting certain players in certain Rounds I otherwise wouldn't.

I still fully intend to detail my reasons for drafting all the players I draft, I'm just not giving it away before I draft them this time.

It doesn't really make any difference to the reader whether I give my analysis now, or a few days from now. Most drafts will take place at the end of August, so as long as my draft analysis is written and posted before mid-August, the majority of drafts will still have plenty of time to consider my thoughts on these players.

My goal this year, will be the same as last year. To best inform those following along, why I'm doing what I'm doing. Do you know how many people, including myself, are curious about WHY Robrain chose Calvin Johnson? None of us need him to explain that Calvin Johnson is a good fantasy player, we know that. What's helpful is why he chose him over the consensus #1 WR. (I won't dare say his name, because rules). Why did he decide to go WR at the 3 spot at all? How does drafting WR in the 1st, alter his plans moving forward. Why did he 180 from his fantasy logic last year? In a 6pt league did you even consider a QB? Did the allure of the consensus #1 TE cross his mind? If his logic truly was upside of 2k yards, did last years WR PPG leader give him pause? How does he define 'safety'?

These are all questions I'll surely answer, just not before I've made some of my other picks.

Specifically:

Do you know how many people, including myself, are curious about WHY Robrain chose Calvin Johnson? None of us need him to explain that Calvin Johnson is a good fantasy player, we know that. What's helpful is why he chose him over the consensus #1 WR. (I won't dare say his name, because rules).

I thought I did explain this one, actually. As far as the "consensus #1 WR", I'm not sure I know who you're talking about. Megatron isn't the consensus #1 WR? I find that preposterous.

Are you referring to the guy on the cover of this year's Madden?

I thought I summarized it very concisely when I said this:

Megatron is 6'5".

None of the other WRs in the 1st Round are 6'5".

What other great quality does a 6'5" wide receiver named Megatron also have? A mega catch radius.

Yes, there are other receivers that can make pretty catches. But if I want the guy who can jump up between 3 Cowboys, and still come down with the ball, well:

1. Why did he 180 from his fantasy logic last year?

2. How does drafting WR in the 1st, alter his plans moving forward?

3. Why did he decide to go WR at the 3 spot at all?

You asked those questions in the wrong order, so I've re-ordered them so that my response is clearest.

1. Every year I reassess my strategy, and try to improve upon it. I try to see if any of my basic "structural" theories may have been wrong, and if so, how I can fix that during the next season's draft.

Last year I went pretty hard at a certain strategy. I'd never tried that strategy before. I was pretty confident that based on the numbers I'd run, it had a high chance of succeeding, but I knew there were certain specific pitfalls that would make it difficult, and that I would have to work around. Lack of quality WR depth was my #1 weakness, without question. I knew that going in, and the way that in particular shook out last season wasn't as good as I'd hoped. I still think I can find WRs to replenish my lineup during the season, but by drafting Calvin Johnson I feel I have a guaranteed "Alien-tier" player at that position.

I've also gotten better at identifying RB traits that I feel are important in classifying different types of running backs. However, I will acknowledge that I tend to be better at analyzing WR skillsets for fantasy football purposes. So when it's close, I'm more confident in my ability to pick a great WR that will perform well all year, compared to being able to pick a great RB that will perform well all year.

Even if I were to pick that great RB, I'm confident that more hits = much higher injury risk (basically, every additional hit is another opportunity to get injured - a little like playing Russian Roulette with more bullets). So if I can draft an "Alien-tier" WR here, that, to me, gives me a bit more security for my 1st Round pick (having less worry about my player getting injured = "safer").

Simplest way I can put it, is that Calvin Johnson at #3 overall was a best-player-available pick. Like I previously said, he certainly wasn't going to be there at my pick at the end of Round 2, so I wasn't getting another chance at him.

2. My strategy starts with my 1st Round pick. In 2011, I had a strategy already laid out going into my Friends-and-Family draft. I wanted to take Calvin Johnson with my 1st Round pick. I was extremely confident in him. But then my #1 RB (now known as that infamous wife-beater) fell to me. And I threw my strategy out the window, drafted that RB with my 1st Round pick, and lo-and-behold, at the top of the 2nd Round, Calvin Johnson fell to me and I was able to get both of them (my original plan in that 2011 league had been Megtron + another two Elite WRs that I was high on, for my 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks [we start 3 WRs in that league]).

Last year, in this league, I had planned ahead of time to draft a plethora of RBs to drive the heart of my roster. My research, analysis, and preparation led me to believe that I would be able to pull that off, while getting the quality of RBs I wanted.

Some of that didn't pan out as I wanted. One had to do with a certain Elite RB holding out at the time we drafted. This led directly to me reaching for a different RB. We have that draft a couple days later, and I would have taken the Elite RB there, no hesitation. Whatevs. Certain things like that happen because we draft earlier than normal. That wasn't really something I could control.

I think your real mistake is assuming that taking a WR here at #3, is an "altering" of my plan.

My strategy going into this draft was not based on taking specific positions in specific rounds.

So taking a WR here at #3 does not "alter" my strategy. No more than anyone else taking a WR in the 1st Round.

3. Again, simplest explanation is "Best Player Available". The most important factor of my 1st Round pick this year was picking a player that I was confident in. Megatron is the player I'm most confident in, I guess you could say. Doesn't matter whether he's a WR, RB, TE, or QB. With all the options available to choose from here, what mattered the most to me for this pick was picking a player that I didn't have any doubts about. I don't have any doubts about Megatron. I've drafted him multiple times before, and he's a player that consistently puts up great fantasy numbers. A sprained ankle last season doesn't even faze me. It doesn't even register as a blip on my radar. The fact that he missed games doesn't bother me - WHY he missed games is the only thing that would make me reconsider. A sprained ankle, a broken finger, none of those are long-term concerns that an offseason can't heal. It would be different if he'd torn his Achilles, or was coming off microfracture surgery, or had recurring hamstring issues for multiple years.

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In a 6pt league did you even consider a QB? Did the allure of the consensus #1 TE cross his mind?

I considered the top players at every position. Pretty sure I already wrote that in my original explanation post.

The Top TE didn't have the upside of 2,000 yards. Heck, I'm not convinced the Top TE has 1,500 yard upside.

I kind of see 1,500 yards as Megatron's floor for a healthy season, which puts him in Top-5 at his position pretty easily. So I consider myself having drafted a player with (to me) a likely 1,500 yard floor, and 2,000 yard upside, plus double-digit TD floor, with 15-20 TD upside. As well as 120+ receptions upside.

QB doesn't compare in the same way due to the different scoring settings for QB's. I guess, as far as QB, you could say that I wasn't confident enough in the Top QBs that I thought it was worth burning the #3 overall pick on one of them, when an Alien-Tier player like Megatron was readily available.

If his logic truly was upside of 2k yards, did last years WR PPG leader give him pause? How does he define 'safety'?

I'm not concerned with who led last year in WR PPG. I'm only concerned with what I am confident in for this upcoming year.

I think I answered what I meant by "safe", above in this response.

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I do agree with FFC, but at the same time as the draft progresses I think it's different. In prior years once the draft progressed GM's would wait until the other players they were considering also got drafted too. Then they would explain their reasoning behind the pick and why they choose who they did over other options, and who else they also considered with the pick and why.

Later in the draft I don't mind reaching 40 spots off an ADP to make sure I get a player I want. Later in the draft I can understand erring on the side of caution about what you say about your picks. At the beginning, I don't think there's any secrets. Its still interesting to me the reasoning behind the thought process of a seasoned fantasy GM though. I'm not above learning a thing or two from you guys.

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By far the best analysis I've seen on these forums this entire offseason.

Exactly what I hope to see every time you(anyone in this league) pick, and why I vehemently feel we should be able to discuss all of that openly during the draft. Bravo Robrain, excellent work.

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I guess I don't have the ego of Robrain to think my opinion of a player will change the entire fantasy landscape and alter every GM's thought process and draft strategy. Lol That's crazy.

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Pretty sure Deadpool still thinks this draft is starting on the 27th. Last message he posted in this thread was on the 18th.

I think the only option is to pause the draft until he's made aware of the changed date.

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My bad guys, I'll pick shortly. Didn't realize we had a new draft time.

I had even set a reminder on my calendar for the 27th =P

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With the 4th pick I'll gladly pick Eddie "Fatman" Lacy.

I had a big internal debate on who to take here, but couldn't pass up this fat bastard..

Dislimb.......................... 1.01 Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Romo............................. 1.02 Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

BATFAVRE......................... 1.03 Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Straight Bass.................... 1.04...Eddie Lacy, RB, GB Packers

Zidane........................... 1.05...OTC

ToO BaD.......................... 1.06

Swole............................ 1.07

Cybernetic....................... 1.08

Winky............................ 1.09

Gordon........................... 1.10

FFC.............................. 1.11

Blu Exile........................ 1.12

Ironcocks........................ 1.13

Predatory........................ 1.14

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And thanks to Robrain for drafting Megatron, I certainly didn't see that coming.

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With the 4th pick I'll gladly pick Eddie "Fatman" Lacy.

I had a big internal debate on who to take here, but couldn't pass up this fat bastard..

Dislimb.......................... 1.01 Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Romo............................. 1.02 Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

BATFAVRE......................... 1.03 Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Straight Bass.................... 1.04...Eddie Lacy, RB, GB Packers

I like the Lacy pick, he was one of the RBs I considered at #3. My knock against him when making my decision was that it seemed like the Packers were doing what they could to limit his overall wear-and-tear last season by rotating in another RB quite often. Especially in certain formations if I remember, like shotgun formation (which the Packers, as a passing team, use quite a bit). Lacy was used more when Rodgers was under center, in order to allow Lacy to maximize his downhill running style.

He'll still be a great fantasy RB, I just wasn't positive he'd consistently be on that "Alien tier" like AP or Calvin Johnson, if he wasn't getting fed the ball consistently every game.

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No worries Deadpool, we were just a bunch of eager beavers.

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I was breaking Robrain's balls a bit regarding megatron, but tron really is criminally undervalued in mock drafts so far this season. He is going off the board at 18 according to FFC.

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I was breaking Robrain's balls a bit regarding megatron, but tron really is criminally undervalued in mock drafts so far this season. He is going off the board at 18 according to FFC.

Yeah, I can't believe that he's behind so many other receivers just because of an ankle sprain last year.

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I'll post a full breakdown of my Gronk pick eventually. Honestly, it'll probably be when I make my pick at 24.

The cliff notes is that with other player movement at the position, I think in a 0.5 PPR, Gronk might score every other tight end by 50-60 points this season. He outscored everyone by 40 last season. I'm also not worried about his September QB situation.

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I thought there was maaaaybe a chance he'd be there @ #7 for me but alas...

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I'll post a full breakdown of my Gronk pick eventually. Honestly, it'll probably be when I make my pick at 24.

The cliff notes is that with other player movement at the position, I think in a 0.5 PPR, Gronk might score every other tight end by 50-60 points this season. He outscored everyone by 40 last season. I'm also not worried about his September QB situation.

He was who I was deciding between.

If Robrain had taken Lacy, I probably would have gone Gronk.

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Gronk is my top ranked player this year. He produces numbers on par with RB1s and with Graham in Seattle the gap at TE is that much wider.

Great pick. He's the only player that you can pretty much guarantee will finish at the top of his position.

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