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DocJ

2015 Rotoworld Mock Real League

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P.S. If you allow Slaptastics or Psygolf in the league, I swear to god I'm out.

Seriously, the community should be able to cut a few rookie forum posters every year at the end of training camp.

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I'm just reading through last years draft while we wait...I still remember the shocker of the draft:

http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=443811&p=4676623

Not going to lie, I thought Gerhart would have a better year than he did.

Lol the dynamic has changed so much. Ball, Bernard, Marshall, Graham, Gerhart. Obviously more so for some than others.

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I wouldn't be opposed to a new owner. I know I joined this league last year to be able to participate with informed and active people/users. Even if he remains active in the league half the fun is having those who are willing and active on these forums specifically. This is after all a ROTOWORLD league.

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Let's recruit JMak for a return.

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Ok lets make tiers of the people we want to join.

Top-Tier:

Brett Favre.

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GottaGetTheWin already posted in here a month or two ago asking about an opening.

I would be okay with him.

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Ok lets make tiers of the people we want to join.

Separated by tiers:

SenatorSpaceman

Dreams and Dwightmares

RMJ

Gottagetthewin

mrblonde

pikerbkb

ol blues

munde

joshua

play at 13 teams

my dead grandmother

cancel the league

cancel fantasy football

cancel the NFL

wait an entire month for FeloniusT to show up

Robrain managing 2 teams

cutting off my own dick

slaptastics

psygolf

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I'm just reading through last years draft while we wait...I still remember the shocker of the draft:

http://forums.rotoworld.com/index.php?showtopic=443811&p=4676623

Not going to lie, I thought Gerhart would have a better year than he did.

That Gerhart pick in Round 2 was 100% supposed to have been Lynch. We draft early, and I didn't want my 4 RB strategy to instantly go splat against the wall if Lynch actually did retire/hold out (like the rumors were swirling).

I really wanted Gerhart as my 3rd RB, with SJax as my 4th RB. That was my original plan for last year's draft.

So due to the holdout/retirement threats from Lynch, I decided to just play it safe and go with the runningback for Seahawks-East (Jaguars, under Gus Bradley), since he was supposed to be a featureback for that offense.

Then Gerhart suffered that brutal knee/ankle injury in like Week 1 or 2, and that was that.

I think it was just a couple of days later after I drafted Gerhart with that pick, Lynch's contract situation got solved and I was sooooooooo pissed at the timing of it.

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Lets get that hater from the AP thread and make him play the season with AP on his team

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I say take 1-4 options we like and whoever gets in here first and makes a pick gets to join.

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Dreams and Dwightmares doesn't post much, but when he does it's well informed and detailed.

Kind of want someone who is going to be very active too though.

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Ok lets make tiers of the people we want to join.

Separated by tiers:

SenatorSpaceman

Dreams and Dwightmares

RMJ

Gottagetthewin

mrblonde

pikerbkb

ol blues

munde

I would vote for any of these guys getting in.

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I say wait until DocJ chimes in to see if we're even going to recruit another member.

Gordon might have been keeping touch through email.

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Not fer nothin but wasn't gottagetthewin the original commish?

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Gordon Gekko logged in today.

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Awesome! Get ready because you'll probably be back up again by the end of the night.

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Yes GGTW was an original owner. I'm hesitant to boot Gordon because:

1 he's an original owner

2 he posts a lot on the league chat page in Yahoo

3 we did say the 27th, then Friday, then moved it up even further.

We'll hang tight for just a little bit longer here...

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Simultaneous post... Welcome back Gordon

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Ty and I thought that's what you said.

And yes, I don't post on here otherwise bc the forums are mostly a heaping pile imo.

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Dislimb.......................... 1.01 Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Romo............................. 1.02 Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

BATFAVRE......................... 1.03 Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Straight Bass.................... 1.04 Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers

Zidane........................... 1.05 Rob Gronkowski, RB, New England Patriots

ToO BaD.......................... 1.06 Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Swole............................ 1.07 Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Cybernetic....................... 1.08 Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Winky............................ 1.09 OBJ, WR, New York Giants

Gordon........................... 1.10 Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

FFC.............................. 1.11 Demaryius Thomas WS, Denver Broncos

Blu Exile........................ 1.12

Ironcocks........................ 1.13

Predatory........................ 1.14

I came into this draft knowing I was going to go WR in the first round. As soon as we got our draft positions, the first thing I did was a mock draft. I wasn’t too concerned with who I got in the mock, I was mostly looking for post-draft analysis. I’ve said this many times on the forums before, I draft 16-1 not 1-16. What this means is, the player I get in round 16, 15, 14, 13 etc, plays a larger part on my draft strategy than anything else. I’m sure that sounds foreign to some but hear me out.

We all have players we like. Late round sleepers, fliers, lotto tickets, value picks, and what have you. But do you ever consider what your team would look like if you got the player of your choice in every one of the late rounds? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s an important factor to account for. Let’s say 3-4 of your late round targets are a single skill position, would you draft that same position in the first 2 rounds? Knowing that if things work out the way you WANT them to, that you’re going to have 9 players of the same position? Probably not.

The key here is how you view the early rounds vs the late rounds. In the late rounds, the names are gross. Sure there’s a handful of guys you like, or wouldn’t mind owning, but outside of those… it’s not very enticing, or exciting. On the inverse though, the 1st,2nd and 3rd rounds? Full of talented players at every single position. By years end do you really expect the difference between the best RB and the best WR to be that big of a deal? Or the 5th RB and the 5th WR? Probably not, so these are the rounds, that matter the least to me. All of the players in these rounds are extremely talented, in good situations, and are widely expected to be extremely productive. Because of that, I put minimal emphasis or care in who I get, or what position it is.

So, how do I do it? I look at my mock draft top to bottom, and I make a list of 3-5 players I’d prefer to own from each round. I create that list for rounds 3-16. I then try and piece together the ‘best case scenario’ in my head. Everyone’s best case will be different, but the names don’t really matter that much, the positions do. You’ll start to notice a trend rather quickly. There are certain rounds where you only like a single position, maybe 2, but can see that your list of 5, greatly favors a single position. Then kind of eyeball what you ‘hope’ to end up with (position wise) in each round. So far in 2015, everytime I do this, I see a minimal amount of WRs I like in the draft as a whole. Lots of mediocrity, lots of question marks, and rollercoaster rides. But in every round there’s at least 1 RB I’d be happy owning, if not many more. I see a handful of TE’s in rounds X, Y and Z that offers me 3 levels of ‘fall back’ options, and I see only 2 options at QB for my strategy this year.

Regardless, when I’m done with this list, I kept coming up with the same thing… I’m probably going to own a lot of mid-late round RBs, and I can hardly find any WRs I like in those same rounds. That makes my first round choice simple, I’m going to need to get WR’s early and often. Again, the talent pool in the first 2 rounds, especially given my draft position, is more than adequate, than no matter what position I chose to go with, I’m going to be happy with them leading into the season. (What happens during the season is a completely different story.)

So, now that I know I need to go WR in the 1st round, to balance out the research from above, it’s time to pick which WR. This is a basic ranking question most of the time, but rankings are funny. I have rankings, but I don’t always follow them for a multitude of reasons. The first reason is league size. The larger the size of the league, the less risk I’m willing to take. You might ask why risk changes based on league size, and the answer is simple. If you lose your 1st round pick in a 10 team league, (for whatever reason) you go to the WW/FA pool and you pick up the next best player. But here’s the catch, in a 10 team league, the next best player is the 161st best player. (16 rounds, 10 teams =160 players drafted). But in a 14 team league? The next best player is the 225th best player. (16 rounds, 14 teams = 224 players drafted) That’s a difference of 64 players. Sixty-Four. That’s the equivalent of a 10th round player and a 16th round player in a 10 team league, to help give you an idea of what 64 picks represents.
E.G. I’d take LeVeon Bell at the #1 overall pick in an 8 team league, because my 3-week fill in, is still an elite player. But in a 12 team league, I wouldn’t even draft him in the first round. This is probably a good time to remind everyone reading, that league settings are the MOST important factor in any draft decision you ever make. The second most important part of fantasy is just your schedule for the season. Sad but true.

The second reason I’m willing to deviate from my ranks would be entry-fee. This tends to follow the logic above, less risk. I don’t care if OBJ might win you your league, if he might cost me the league. When money is on the line, I’m looking for a Return On Investment. Some people draft with an all or nothing attitude, they either want to win, or go down in flames. I have nothing against that, but finishing 3rd place is still a profit, and I like winning money. In these scenarios, I want guys I can depend on to get me to the playoffs. Maybe they don’t take me to the ‘ship, but that’s okay.

The 3rd reason is variation or diversity. Like I said, the first two rounds are chalk full of talent. So if I already own Tron in 1 league, I might take the 2nd best WR on my board, just so I don’t own him in too many leagues, or simply so I can have a share of Julio in at least 1 league this year. Having said that, this is my only free-redraft league, so this is the league I’m willing to deviate the most in, so that I can ensure it’s fun, even without money on the line. I’ll try to own players I know I won’t own anywhere else.

There were only 2 options on my mind while I waited for Gordon’s pick to come in. Dez or Demaryius.

A rather polarizing player this year, Demaryius Thomas, with rankings ranging from as high as 2 down to 8th it seems, all depending on how you feel about Manning, Kubiak, CJA, etc… At the end of the Superbowl each year, I make a quick and crude rankings list for roughly 20-30 players at both WR and RB individually. I find it helps me keep my head on straight through the off season, it helps me remember what I was seeing and how I was feeling at the end of the season from actual football games, rather than looking at year end numbers in retrospect and fall victim to group think, or expert opinion/analysis. What that ranking list said? Demaryius Thomas #2. In a tier with Antonio Brown the only player ahead of him, and no one below him. The exit of Julius Thomas, reassured me that anything Kubiak scaled back, that Demaryius would make up for in Red Zone looks. People are down on Manning because of how pathetic he was to end the season last year and they’re right… but even with that being the case, DT was still a top 10 WR over the final 5 weeks of the season, and was even 2nd in targets. He managed only 2 TDs in that time though, while Dez managed 6 in that same time frame. Look at it from a slightly different perspective and you see that over the final 5 weeks of the season Peyton Manning was only the 27th best fantasy QB while Romo was 4th. If you want to talk about regression to the mean…

Despite that, Demaryius actually lead the league in Red Zone Targets last season with 23. With Julius Thomas gone, I expect that number to increase, or at the very least maintain. But on the other hand, Dez lead the league in TD receptions with 16. Since Dez has entered the league, he’s averaged 11.2 TDs per year, which is higher than anyone in that time. (2010-2014) In a full point PPR, I might be tempted to go with Demaryius due to sheer volume of targets and catches (467/297)in the last 3 years while Dez sits at (434/273) but in half point PPR a single TD in Dez’ favor is the equivalent of 12 catches. Furthermore, I look back to last year, and I had Dez ranked #1 overall. Ahead of Tron(the consensus #1 of ‘14), and the reasoning was because of his new offensive coordinator, Scott Linehan, who is the same man that forcefed MegaTron to the tune of 204 targets, 122 catches, and 1,964 yards. Now that Murray is out of the picture I’m curious if Dallas falls into Linehans ways, and chucks it to the X factor without hesitation. You look at numbers, and you see Demaryius went 1400, 1400, 1600, and you wonder if maybe he peaked, will we ever see higher? Maybe he repeats, but have we already seen his ceiling? But you see Dez, who’s a full year younger that DT, and you see 1300, 1200, 1300 and you just have to wonder… is this the year he goes off. Is Dez about to have the year everyone is hoping Julio will have? The final factor that tipped the scales is something I mentioned above. I’m probably not going to get Dez in my other leagues. Preferably auctions taking place on Yahoo, Demaryius is currently $10 cheaper than Dez, making him the logical choice to end up on my team when my real money is on the line. Dez has become my favorite WR in the NFL, and I love his passion for the game. Contract issues can’t be a factor, because he and DT shared the same situation, and basically got the same deal.

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