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jtbgator

PPR Draft Strategy - 4th pick

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I drew the 4th pick overall, thought I'd start up a thread so other 4th pickers can discuss draft strategy. I'm typically seeing it's best to balance out your roster with RB's and WR's in the first 7 to 8 rounds. Then target QB and TE afterwards. Anyone else have insight to your strategy picking 4th? Here are a few mocks I've done the past few weeks as reference.

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I think the 4th is too soon for Abdullah, unless he secures a more solid role through the pre-season.

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I would approach it in reverse: elite WRs first, then RB with your remaining positions late unless a top 3 TE falls to you. The positional advantage is at WR particularly in PPR. I ran the precise numbers in a different thread earlier this year, but they approximate this.

-7 fantasy points per game separate the elite WRs from WR 25 (i.e., the start of WR3s).

-2.8 or so fantasy points per game separate WR25 from WR60.

-In concrete terms, in 2014 owning Torrey Smith or M. Bryant (the WR25 and WR60) or any others in that roughly 45 WR range from mid WR2 to WR6 made basically no difference to your fantasy team. The difference in WR production comes from the elite WRs.

Your strategy results in a non-competitive WR corps. Take an elite WR at 1 (A. Brown or ODB) and see if Calvin, Jordy or AJ remains at pick 21. Good luck.

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I think your strategy only works well if you believe in Ryan Tannehill, whom you clearly do.

I think he is an overrated below average NFL QB. Although Bill Lazor's offense (Chip Kelly's offense) is great for QBs the wheels eventually come off as team's catch up and real talent is required to go to the next level.

Just take a look at Nick Foles. The guy isn't terrible, but he's obviously not 27 / 2 good. Team's caught up though.

Tannehill is playing in a great offense and might make a small jump on last year's numbers, but I realistically expect him to remain the same or even slightly regress.

With that said it is never my intention to target the league's 12th best QB in hopes to stay competitive.

I could easily be wrong and the hype on Tannehill be real though, good luck with whatever you do.

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I would approach it in reverse: elite WRs first, then RB with your remaining positions late unless a top 3 TE falls to you. The positional advantage is at WR particularly in PPR. I ran the precise numbers in a different thread earlier this year, but they approximate this.

-7 fantasy points per game separate the elite WRs from WR 25 (i.e., the start of WR3s).

-2.8 or so fantasy points per game separate WR25 from WR60.

-In concrete terms, in 2014 owning Torrey Smith or M. Bryant (the WR25 and WR60) or any others in that roughly 45 WR range from mid WR2 to WR6 made basically no difference to your fantasy team. The difference in WR production comes from the elite WRs.

Your strategy results in a non-competitive WR corps. Take an elite WR at 1 (A. Brown or ODB) and see if Calvin, Jordy or AJ remains at pick 21. Good luck.

I'll try a WR WR mock and post the results, appreciate the insight.

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Ok so went WR WR, then grabbed Graham in the 3rd. I don't really care for my RB corps but I guess they're serviceable.

Thoughts?

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Yea pretty good...Hyde is hard in PPR as he will probs be a 2-back down on a bad team, so we may see a lot of R Bush. That being said you are pretty dominant at WR and TE, and I think Rivers and Bradford are a great combo for QBs. I think you are more likely to win weeks with a WR WR strategy for PPR but truthfully you should pick best player available a lot of times, because sticking to much to a specific strategy can sometimes bite you in the a**.

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I think your strategy only works well if you believe in Ryan Tannehill, whom you clearly do.

I think he is an overrated below average NFL QB. Although Bill Lazor's offense (Chip Kelly's offense) is great for QBs the wheels eventually come off as team's catch up and real talent is required to go to the next level.

Just take a look at Nick Foles. The guy isn't terrible, but he's obviously not 27 / 2 good. Team's caught up though.

Tannehill is playing in a great offense and might make a small jump on last year's numbers, but I realistically expect him to remain the same or even slightly regress.

With that said it is never my intention to target the league's 12th best QB in hopes to stay competitive.

I could easily be wrong and the hype on Tannehill be real though, good luck with whatever you do.

His completion %, yards, and TDs have gone up each of his first three years.

He could easily slip into the 7-9 QB range this year.

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I think your strategy only works well if you believe in Ryan Tannehill, whom you clearly do.

I think he is an overrated below average NFL QB. Although Bill Lazor's offense (Chip Kelly's offense) is great for QBs the wheels eventually come off as team's catch up and real talent is required to go to the next level.

Just take a look at Nick Foles. The guy isn't terrible, but he's obviously not 27 / 2 good. Team's caught up though.

Tannehill is playing in a great offense and might make a small jump on last year's numbers, but I realistically expect him to remain the same or even slightly regress.

With that said it is never my intention to target the league's 12th best QB in hopes to stay competitive.

I could easily be wrong and the hype on Tannehill be real though, good luck with whatever you do.

His completion %, yards, and TDs have gone up each of his first three years.

He could easily slip into the 7-9 QB range this year.

His running ability makes him even more appealing to me given his ADP. Absolute steal. If you're leary, simply grab Flacco, Palmer or Bridgewater as insurance.

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