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Nikola Jokic 2016-17 Season Outlook

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10 hours ago, Kaboom said:

The real question is, where do you have him in your Provisional Rankings?

 

 

 

 

 

:ph34r: 

It is too early to make some rankings, but probably Jokic will be somewhere between 60-80.

Now I ask why you are joking about rankings? Maybe the word "provisional" is wrong? I am not a English speaking person. Or you never do any own rankings? I do it every season and I am counting all other rankings what I see in web. If you want to know, I even copied both your Rotoworld Mock drafts ranking to one of my files. I am always doing serious work and finally: last season I was right about Danny Green and Gobert.

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7 hours ago, apatas said:

It is too early to make some rankings, but probably Jokic will be somewhere between 60-80.

Now I ask why you are joking about rankings? Maybe the word "provisional" is wrong? I am not a English speaking person. Or you never do any own rankings? I do it every season and I am counting all other rankings what I see in web. If you want to know, I even copied both your Rotoworld Mock drafts ranking to one of my files. I am always doing serious work and finally: last season I was right about Danny Green and Gobert.

 

Provisional is the right word to use, as it is simply a "tentative" ranking for Jokic, seeing as we have no idea how he'll actually perform.

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WOW!

 

The Nuggets have traded Joffrey Lauvergne to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Adrian Wojnarowski reports the Nuggets will receive two future second round picks from the Thunder, while Lauvergne will join a crowded frontcourt in Oklahoma City. Lauvergne could have some value in deeper fantasy leagues, but he won't have much value in standard leagues unless Steven Adams and/or Enes Kanter suffer an injury.

 

One less guy to battle for minutes for Jokic.

 

#FreeJokic #UnleashTheBeast #NikolaGOATic #ThisYear'sCJMcCollum #ALLIN

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All in... would you spend your top 30 pick on him?

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6 hours ago, tongs said:

All in... would you spend your top 30 pick on him?

 

no way too high IMO

 

you have to way the risk with the upside. Upside is definitely there, but even with King Joffrey first of his name gone they still have:

Nurkic - 5

Faried - 4/5

Arthur - 4

Hernangomez - 4

Gallo - 3/4

Chandler - 2/3/4

 

That is still going to limit his minutes. He could maybe get up towards 30-40 value on 25-28 mins, but without a faried trade that seems the absolute max in mins he could get. If they move Faried...then i'd consider him in the 30-40 range otherwise i'd look for hime maybe from 50-60th pick onwards?

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6 hours ago, tongs said:

All in... would you spend your top 30 pick on him?

 

Despite what I said earlier, imo in his best case scenario, he could reach T30 value. But I'm not gonna spend a T30 pick on his ceiling. He's a mid-rounder for me. I think his floor is T80 so I'm picking him up before then hopefully.

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40 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

no way too high IMO

 

you have to way the risk with the upside. Upside is definitely there, but even with King Joffrey first of his name gone they still have:

Nurkic - 5

Faried - 4/5

Arthur - 4

Hernangomez - 4

Gallo - 3/4

Chandler - 2/3/4

 

That is still going to limit his minutes. He could maybe get up towards 30-40 value on 25-28 mins, but without a faried trade that seems the absolute max in mins he could get. If they move Faried...then i'd consider him in the 30-40 range otherwise i'd look for hime maybe from 50-60th pick onwards?

I'm looking at him as a PF option starting after pick 30 depending on what's on the board.

 

Malone has said they were building around Jokic already. I'm not too worried about other players eating to many of his minutes. Here's my analysis of the above players:

 

Nurkic - 5 - Part of the future Nuggets want to build. Referred to as a defensive force by Malone.

Faried - 4/5 Has not broken out like we thought and is probably on the market.

Arthur - 4 Bench talent.

Hernangomez - 4 Rookie that may work to claim Joffrey's role in the future and not at the expense of Jokic

Gallo - 3/4 If Gallo plays 4 then Jokic probably plays 5. Plus an injury prone player.

Chandler - 2/3/4 ... I think this guy was in danger of retirement last year? Realistically should not be part of Nuggets long term plan. I don't want to even say he is a backup SF since Barton has played so well. As a 4, I don't see why they don't just use Gallo for small ball and any of the other 4 options.

 

Jokic has a nice mins floor now for me to want him.

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8 hours ago, tongs said:

All in... would you spend your top 30 pick on him?

 

To many sure things in that range. Favors, IT, Brook, Kemba. I dont think I could do it, although it feels really easy to take him in the fourth now.

 

I am more interested in what folks will spend in an auction. Id go about up to about 20-22$. im more apt to reach in an auction because I can also grab a surer thing in the same range (for example Favors idk).

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3 hours ago, jsquints said:

 

I am more interested in what folks will spend in an auction. Id go about up to about 20-22$. im more apt to reach in an auction because I can also grab a surer thing in the same range (for example Favors idk).

 

I would definitely spend $20 on him.  This guy was just too good last year in limited minutes for me to pass up on him.  Must own for me.

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11 hours ago, rob0403 said:

I'm looking at him as a PF option starting after pick 30 depending on what's on the board.

 

Malone has said they were building around Jokic already. I'm not too worried about other players eating to many of his minutes. Here's my analysis of the above players:

 

Nurkic - 5 - Part of the future Nuggets want to build. Referred to as a defensive force by Malone.

Faried - 4/5 Has not broken out like we thought and is probably on the market.

Arthur - 4 Bench talent.

Hernangomez - 4 Rookie that may work to claim Joffrey's role in the future and not at the expense of Jokic

Gallo - 3/4 If Gallo plays 4 then Jokic probably plays 5. Plus an injury prone player.

Chandler - 2/3/4 ... I think this guy was in danger of retirement last year? Realistically should not be part of Nuggets long term plan. I don't want to even say he is a backup SF since Barton has played so well. As a 4, I don't see why they don't just use Gallo for small ball and any of the other 4 options.

 

Jokic has a nice mins floor now for me to want him.

Good thoughts.  Keep in mind it's verrry unlikely Jokic gets more than a small handful of minutes at the 4.  With Joff gone Nurkic is the only other real C on the roster, and though he looks to be in much better shape than last year, the conditioning and fouls with still limit his minutes, at least for a while.  Faried and Arthur will get a few smallball C minutes but I think Jokic has a pretty clear path to at least 30-32 min now.  They've definitely shopped Faried and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him moved at some point during the season.

 

Not to get too off topic but Chandler is waaaaaay better than Barton.  He's been hurt a lot but he's really good.  I don't think Barton gets many minutes this year between healthy (possibly) Chandler and Gallo, Harris, Murray, and Beasley.  I could see Barton getting thrown in as a trade sweetener, though his contract is so cheap he might be tough to give up.  

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Talking about Faried playing C made me curious since I never recalled him playing C in a game. I checked out Nuggets most used lineups last year. There was only 3 games where he did not play with another big man in the lineup for around 10 mins each. Also 4 games where he played with Arthur on the floor who I assume is playing stretch 4.

 

The most played lineups are:

 

Faried,Kenneth - Gallinari,Danilo - Harris,Gary - Jokic,Nikola - Mudiay,Emmanuel

21 GP 13.8 mins

Faried,Kenneth - Harris,Gary - Jokic,Nikola - Mudiay,Emmanuel - Sampson,JaKarr

14 GP 13.8 mins

 

Also the best +/- Positive side had Jokic or Nurk playing 5. Best +/- For Faried had him playing 4.

 

Another interesting thing I noticed, Jokic and Nurkic in the same lineup was a -6 for one game only. However, they were both big positives if either one was playing C by themselves. Though the Dual C experiment is young, they may split minutes in the C spot more than you think with a healthy Nurkic this year.

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12 hours ago, srb said:

Good thoughts.  Keep in mind it's verrry unlikely Jokic gets more than a small handful of minutes at the 4.  With Joff gone Nurkic is the only other real C on the roster, and though he looks to be in much better shape than last year, the conditioning and fouls with still limit his minutes, at least for a while.  Faried and Arthur will get a few smallball C minutes but I think Jokic has a pretty clear path to at least 30-32 min now.  They've definitely shopped Faried and I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him moved at some point during the season.

 

Not to get too off topic but Chandler is waaaaaay better than Barton.  He's been hurt a lot but he's really good.  I don't think Barton gets many minutes this year between healthy (possibly) Chandler and Gallo, Harris, Murray, and Beasley.  I could see Barton getting thrown in as a trade sweetener, though his contract is so cheap he might be tough to give up.  

 

Not sure how you work out 30-32 mins with only a handful at PF (which I agree with - I doubt we see too much of the twin itchs [yeah I just coined that term])

 

That leaves 16-18 mins for Nurkic max at Centre - not accounting for any small ball centre mins?! Just no way that is happen.

 

This is the concern and the only thing preventing full-blown Joker breakout. I think at a very min Nurkic gets 20mins per night (more likely 20-25) and that leaves about 24-26 for Jokic. I think with a few mins at the 4 he might stretch to the 25-28 min range, but I can't see him hitting 30mins per game without another trade (or Nurk injury).

 

At that minute range I think his ceiling is about Top30-40 and floor 80, So for me he becomes relevant around 50th pick. Like Jsquints said too many sure things available at 30, and you have just destroyed all his upside

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In the rotoworld mock draft article -  12 team roto h2h redraft - jokic went 21 .. Before dray! I like my first 2 or 3 picks to be safe boring ones, so I'd wait till turn of round 3/4 to grab him if he's available 

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He went 21st at Rotoworld writers Mock draft. Is it really not too early? I think, if he is going 30th spot, it is also risky, because his upside is quite unclear. In TOP30 we have many players who have proved their level through many seasons. Why I have to take somebody who has not yet proved?

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For me it's ridiculous to take him with your 2nd pick. Crazy what this rotoworld writer was thinking (D.Green 22nd,Aldridge 26th, B.Lopez 27th-ridiculous). Malone yesterday praised Arthur. Of course Jokic is a priority, but there are many big guys that will play.

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Jokic is completely overvalued in one year leagues.  Great talent but not worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick. 

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Why would you pay for that content? Paying for "experts" to tell us things that are completely stupid?

 

Myles Turner at 33?! Y'all know I'm big on him, but that is ridiculous. He can only go down from there. Even the top 10 in that draft was bogus. No way Cousins should be there in a 9-cat roto league

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I feel like I'm missing something here. I just can't understand why he is a top 30 player. Is the starting spot safe first of all? Plus so many "safer" players to choose from before I get him. If he falls 5th round then I might consider him but I can't see my self getting him this early.

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Jokic is going to stuff the boxscore this year. He's going to have more minutes, more shots, and more playmaking opportunities (great passer). I'm putting him around 12.5 pts, 8.5 rebs, 3.5 dimes, 0.5 threes, 0.8 blocks, 1.1 steals, 48% fg, 82% ft. There is room for growth on all of those numbers too. Think Marc Gasol or Al Horford from years past, but with a few less points. In auction I'd put down 9-12% of budget for him. In a snake, I'd probably grab him in the 25-35 range. I'd probably end up getting trigger shy at 25, but at 35 he's an easy choice. 

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Look, how different opinions here... Jokic is really a "mystery man".

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7 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

Why would you pay for that content? Paying for "experts" to tell us things that are completely stupid?

 

Myles Turner at 33?! Y'all know I'm big on him, but that is ridiculous. He can only go down from there. Even the top 10 in that draft was bogus. No way Cousins should be there in a 9-cat roto league

 

Seriously. They were pushing so hard on Gobert last year. I think one "expert" even picked him in the final pick of the first round. Gobert is good, but expecting him to return first round value last year was misguided to say the least.

 

Jokic is good, but people need to temper expectations. It's his sophomore year and it will be a bit of a bumpy road. He should only be picked in the first two rounds in keeper leagues.

 

My plan is to scoop him up from the sad sack who picks him up early and is likely to feel very disappointed with him. Wouldn't be surprised if I can trade my 7th round player for him before the end of the calendar year.

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Perfectly agree with roto mock draft

I don't see any problem, if you guys disagree with his 21th pick you can wait 4th or 5th round and I guarantee Jokic will be still available waiting for you lol

I think you forget he is 21 years old, last season he was a rookie but now he is the centerpiece of Nuggets team

he never demonstrate to provide 2 round value? ok but he hasn't still got enough time to prove his value (now he's a sophomore, now he's a starter)....  a lot of things are changed, now the Nuggets are expected to build around him while for example with Durant in Golden State  maybe Draymond's stats could go down a little bit

 

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2 hours ago, LosingEffort said:

Perfectly agree with roto mock draft

I don't see any problem, if you guys disagree with his 21th pick you can wait 4th or 5th round and I guarantee Jokic will be still available waiting for you lol

I think you forget he is 21 years old, last season he was a rookie but now he is the centerpiece of Nuggets team

he never demonstrate to provide 2 round value? ok but he hasn't still got enough time to prove his value (now he's a sophomore, now he's a starter)....  a lot of things are changed, now the Nuggets are expected to build around him while for example with Durant in Golden State  maybe Draymond's stats could go down a little bit

 

 

There is a certain guy called Nurkic that they have to get mins for as well. Look at the numbers posted by RedSoxNation. Those are good numbers but they are not 21st value. 

 

Fire away at 21st my friend, but you just killed all his upside. What is the point in reaching if the place where you pick someone is at their ceiling and even that is uncertain due to having a time share with another very good player. I'd love Jokic in my team, but the asking price is getting way too steep

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