Jake the snake

Myles Turner 2016-2017 Season Outlook

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10 hours ago, richg24 said:

i know that you made this up because no nba player would make that comparison. they are nothing alike, turner is super athletic, aldridge is not he just has great moves and a great midrange game. turner is a shot blocker, aldridge lucky to average 1 blk a game.... turner is not gonna get 2.8 blks per game tho thats insane. 

 

14 and 8.5 is realistic tho and maybe 1.8 blocks-2 blocks

 

I think you are off. This was discussed last year as well. Turner is not super athletic like a lot of the big time shot blockers. (He even runs awkwardly.) apparently he just has amazing timing and instincts when it comes to shot blocking. 

 

If if he develops a lethal mid range/post up game, I could see the LMA comparison. But that is a big if.  Although, he is already a better defender. 

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8 minutes ago, jay14bay said:

 

I think you are off. This was discussed last year as well. Turner is not super athletic like a lot of the big time shot blockers. (He even runs awkwardly.) apparently he just has amazing timing and instincts when it comes to shot blocking. 

 

If if he develops a lethal mid range/post up game, I could see the LMA comparison. But that is a big if.  Although, he is already a better defender. 

I was about to post this. He wasn't known to be super athletic out of the draft. Even though he has fixed his gait, his talent is his timing.

 

So the LMA comparison is ok in some ways. If he can post up like LMA and then run similar plays he will be 2nd round talent. Don't hold your breath folks, it could be late this year or next year this happens.

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Seems like we're talking dynasty rather than redraft

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1 hour ago, tongs said:

Seems like we're talking dynasty rather than redraft

maybe the upside numbers being thrown around

 

but he avg on only 22 min 10.5, 5.5, 1.5blks 50/72 (low fta) 1 t/o

 

even with the extra addition to the roster if he has modest improvement, some increased min he should have a line around 12.5-13, 7.5 reb, 2+ blks on 50% that is very useful..... plus if his improvement that is being talked about this summer translate to the season he has that 15pt upside and you are getting a top 3 rd guy or better

 

im buying for the blks and upside

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I think he has immediate upside this season for blocks and scoring.  His shooting range was one of the thing Larry Bird talked up last season.  While he has solid range for a young big man, I expect less mid-range jumpers and more shots around the basket.  This will help his efficiency.  He is really young and is still developing physically.  Once he fills out and becomes stronger, he has great potential.  Hopefully, his timing on shot blocking with translate to rebounds so that once he becomes stronger he will become a better rebounder.  In a redraft league, I would be looking for him in the 5 to 6th round range.  In a dynasty, probably a couple of rounds earlier.  The problem is that he is becoming sufficiently hyped so someone is probably going to take him earlier than his current real value.

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Dam Myles, you might be letting the cat out of the bag here. Just reaffirming that I think we might see a pretty solid breakout this year, and with no ceiling he could easily average 100ppg
 
 

Myles Turner believes he can become a dominant player "soon."

"I can see myself being a very dominant player in this league one day – and one day soon," he said. "I mean, I don’t know what my ceiling is. With my work ethic and my drive, I feel like there is no ceiling." Turner has already said that he wants to average 15-20 points per game next season, and he's shaping up to be someone worth reaching for before his stock shoots up fantasy charts and everyone is riding the train.
 
 
Edited by Jake the snake

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Rotoworld seems to think he will start right out the gate, but does anyone think he might still be benched while Al Jefferson starts? (assuming Jefferson's body holds up)

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5th/6th round I will start looking at him. Still has quite a bit of upside from there and his efficiency in scoring in combination with the blocks gives him quite a high floor

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love turner but would you guys really reach for the upside that early if rolo is still going around pick 90-100?

 

seems like they will have similar lines with less upside from rolo but rolo is a more sure thing

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17 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

love turner but would you guys really reach for the upside that early if rolo is still going around pick 90-100?

 

seems like they will have similar lines with less upside from rolo but rolo is a more sure thing

I too loved owning Turner last year but yeah around 80 sounds right to me. I guess you're drafting youth, upside, and athleticism.. everything you can't see on paper lol

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2 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

love turner but would you guys really reach for the upside that early if rolo is still going around pick 90-100?

 

seems like they will have similar lines with less upside from rolo but rolo is a more sure thing

 

Why not get both? Turner gives you upside. Rolo solidity. Although Rolo is not very fun to own as he isn't a very good real life baller

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If it's Myles in the 5th/6th or RoLo around pick 90-100 I'm all in for the latter as far as value goes. He will have fairly little competition for the 5 in Chicago, and I bet his rebs will increase if he ends up playing a fair share of minutes next to Mirotic. I personally think he's a more than fine player IRL; nothing flashy and no special talent by any means, but a starting caliber C for sure.

 

As far as Myles goes: I like this kid, there is so much upside to him. But I'm wondering if he will see many touches in a starting line up with PG13, Teague, Ellis, and Thad? There are some mouths to feed there..

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2 minutes ago, WFK said:

But I'm wondering if he will see many touches in a starting line up with PG13, Teague, Ellis, and Thad? There are some mouths to feed there.

This is my big worry about Turner.  I love him but I'm not willing to pay the premium that others will this season.

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The problem I see is that the reliable big man pool gets really thin after the 6th where Myles is projected to go.

 

Robin Lopez and maybe Monroe and Adams are the only other guys back there for the next 3ish rounds. None of which have that much upside.

 

After that you are kinda in the ??? zone with guys like on Nurk/Okafor/Biyambo/Noah/Mozgov

 

Even if you don't want to reach you might have to.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, jsquints said:

The problem I see is that the reliable big man pool gets really thin after the 6th where Myles is projected to go.

 

Robin Lopez and maybe Monroe and Adams are the only other guys back there for the next 3ish rounds. None of which have that much upside.

 

After that you are kinda in the ??? zone with guys like on Nurk/Okafor/Biyambo/Noah/Mozgov

 

Even if you don't want to reach you might have to.

 

 

Capela?(if you punt FT%)

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6 hours ago, BoogieNights said:

This is my big worry about Turner.  I love him but I'm not willing to pay the premium that others will this season.

 

This kid is their future. Ellis is a spend force. He is slowing down too much and I'm not sure he is going to see the ball nearly as much this season. He is MASSIVE bust material this year. Thad is a role player. When he plays on decent teams he falls into this role. That will be his again. Teague is actually a benefit for Turner IMO as he runs an offence much better than Hill who is more a SG on offence. Obviously George is going to get the ball a lot, but they (him and turner) were working really well together in the playoffs against the raps. Sleep if you like, but he is going to get a huge opportunity to break out this season and I think he absolutely has the talent to do it. I'm taking him all day and every day over ROLO (but I guess you guys mighta known that by now).

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27 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

 Thad is a role player. When he plays on decent teams he falls into this role. That will be his again. 

 

Ummm when was this??

 

He's been on Philly, Minny, and Brooklyn

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11 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

This kid is their future. Ellis is a spend force. He is slowing down too much and I'm not sure he is going to see the ball nearly as much this season. He is MASSIVE bust material this year. Thad is a role player. When he plays on decent teams he falls into this role. That will be his again. Teague is actually a benefit for Turner IMO as he runs an offence much better than Hill who is more a SG on offence. Obviously George is going to get the ball a lot, but they (him and turner) were working really well together in the playoffs against the raps. Sleep if you like, but he is going to get a huge opportunity to break out this season and I think he absolutely has the talent to do it. I'm taking him all day and every day over ROLO (but I guess you guys mighta known that by now).

It's like you're trying to sell him to me.  I just said I'm not willing to pay the price someone will this year.  No big deal.  Ellis' role has shrunk considerably but he's still a chucker who is going to shoot it.  PG is a usage monster that will get the majority of shots.  Thad's role will be unlike any he has had thus far in his career (save for maybe his first couple years) but he's still gonna get some shots.  Teague actually might help Turner but I would like to see it happen first.  There are lots of question marks and lots of mouths to feed in their offense.  I will see how it plays out from the sidelines this year.

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50 minutes ago, BoogieNights said:

It's like you're trying to sell him to me.  I just said I'm not willing to pay the price someone will this year.  No big deal.  Ellis' role has shrunk considerably but he's still a chucker who is going to shoot it.  PG is a usage monster that will get the majority of shots.  Thad's role will be unlike any he has had thus far in his career (save for maybe his first couple years) but he's still gonna get some shots.  Teague actually might help Turner but I would like to see it happen first.  There are lots of question marks and lots of mouths to feed in their offense.  I will see how it plays out from the sidelines this year.

 

Generally this is a good approach. I've got burned many-a-times picking boom/bust/hype picks in early rounds reaching instead of the safe pick. I would go back and look at the draft and see guys take someone like Robin Lopez or Marcin Gortat in the 7th and 8th round while I reached for guys like Jared Sullinger, Meyers Leonard, or Stanley Johnson (to name a few) because of insane pre seasons. Those guys who picked safe reaped the rewards of a guy giving them 10+ / 9 and 1.5+ blocks with good percentages and low TO, while I ended up holding complete waste on my roster for months hoping for them to show some sign of life and having it impact my weekly stats and losing key matchups because of it. They ended up on the wire, while those other guys rode those players the entire season. 

 

It's a mistake I hope to avoid in the future. This year I'm so enticed by reaching on someone like Turner, but then I'm going to pass up some great/consistent year to year players doing it, so I will likely take the same route as you. It's just scary to think you can get a 3+ shot blocker with good %'s and upside for big rebounding/and some 3's in the 4th round. 

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Exactly, while Monta's role was shrunk he's still a player that needs the ball in his hands a lot and who doesn't mind putting up bad shots. Thad has averaged around 14ppg over his career, so while his role will shrink considerably as well he will still demand some touches. Teague will be an upgrade over Hill as far as running the offence for sure (which helps Turner), but he will also demand more shots than Hill does. Turner has lots of potential, but I just can't see him taking over as the second option on offence yet. 

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He won't be the second option this year but he will maintain his scoring more than you think. Unless I remember wrong, he was always the bail out option for pick and pops and the shooter when they double team PG or another Pacer player. He should still get these looks regardless.

 

I don't see him getting more scoring but I see him improving on rebounding. Turner was pretty bad on the box out last year. I also don't see him being an elite rebounder for his career, possibly because he is always stretching the floor on offense. and further from the rim.

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