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Dwayne Washington 2016 Season Outlook

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Just now, carmine said:

He's going for 80/20/2 this weekend. Fire him up.

 

80 rushing attempts for 20 yards and 2 TDs? 2 TD sounds nice, but the rest of it sounds miserable.

Edited by burninglegs

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8 minutes ago, carmine said:

80 ground yards and 20 passing yards

 

Passing yards? I guess if you think he could play QB.

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Yeah like Ronnie Brown outta the wildcat baby. Fire him up as an RB1 Choo Choo. 

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I'm confused by a lot of the pessimistic people in the thread... I understand that the point total wasn't there quite, but he got 10 carries in his first taste of real action as a 7th Round rookie including a goal line carry at the 1 yard line. If he converted that and we were dealing with a 9.5/10.5 point performance then I feel like none of these anti-sentiments would be around.

 

10 Carries, 1 Reception, 1 Goal Line Carry... that's plenty of scoring opportunities when you consider what the RB market is out there. Maybe my expectations have gotten too low for the position, but considering that I don't expect many of these numbers to go down, especially when you consider the awful flow of that Lions Packers game for a RB, 10-15 carries with goal line work and the potentially to be worked into the passing game (just by way of being part of the Lions) is super encouraging to me. 

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Did you really just invoke Wayne Fontes as an argument against climbing aboard the Pain Train?  Unbelievable.

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20 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Riddick as a running back was disgraceful 

 

no way Washington doesn't see 10+ carries in a likely blowout vs Chi

 

great bet for a TD - at least 1

 

I really think a Lions back needs involvement in the passing game to have fantasy relevance - this is especially true in PPR formats. 

 

People say there are better days to come for Washington, but I actually think Sunday's performance is a decent snapshot of what usage we can expect from him. He got 10 carries, including 1 goal line carry he failed to convert. 

 

Ok. Maybe he takes a larger percentage share of the workload with Riddick being such a poor runner, but I also think general game flow might counterbalance some of those gains on a pass-first team. 

 

Last season, the season high carries for a Lions back was 16 carries. I get part of that was the early RBBC, but this offense just didn't feature a back in that kind of a role. In the one full game Abdullah played this season, he had 12 carries. 

 

This is all to say that I'd be pretty shocked if 15 carries wasn't very close to Washington's ceiling. Going forward I would expect him to settle in the 10-14 range, provided huge struggles or fumbling issues. Without considering passing involvement, that makes him an extremely TD-dependent back and a low-end flex, at best. 

 

If he wants to actually put up interesting numbers, he is going to need 3-4+ targets consistently in the passing game. The problem here is that Riddick was targeted and caught more passes then any other RB in the NFL last year. He finds himself in a really bad situation in that regard. While Ameer certainly received targets in the passing game, and as a former-WR Washington has some pedigree, the question remains if the coaching staff trusts the rookie in pass protection. 

 

He's an obvious hold, except in shallow leagues, but I am not seeing great upside. 

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4 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

I really think a Lions back needs involvement in the passing game to have fantasy relevance - this is especially true in PPR formats. 

 

People say there are better days to come for Washington, but I actually think Sunday's performance is a decent snapshot of what usage we can expect from him. He got 10 carries, including 1 goal line carry he failed to convert. 

 

Ok. Maybe he takes a larger percentage share of the workload with Riddick being such a poor runner, but I also think general game flow might counterbalance some of those gains on a pass-first team. 

 

Last season, the season high carries for a Lions back was 16 carries. I get part of that was the early RBBC, but this offense just didn't feature a back in that kind of a role. In the one full game Abdullah played this season, he had 12 carries. 

 

This is all to say that I'd be pretty shocked if 15 carries wasn't very close to Washington's ceiling. Going forward I would expect him to settle in the 10-14 range, provided huge struggles or fumbling issues. Without considering passing involvement, that makes him an extremely TD-dependent back and a low-end flex, at best. 

 

If he wants to actually put up interesting numbers, he is going to need 3-4+ targets consistently in the passing game. The problem here is that Riddick was targeted and caught more passes then any other RB in the NFL last year. He finds himself in a really bad situation in that regard. While Ameer certainly received targets in the passing game, and as a former-WR Washington has some pedigree, the question remains if the coaching staff trusts the rookie in pass protection. 

 

He's an obvious hold, except in shallow leagues, but I am not seeing great upside. 

 

As far as the passing game usage, in that same game where Abdullah got 12 carries didn't he have about 7 catches? Dwayne is a converted WR/HB from college and should at least theoretically have a more advanced familiarity with route trees than many other backs of his same experience level. I'd wager he will get 3-4 targets in the passing game before the years end. 

 

I also think another note I would make is that looking at the carry numbers for Detroit based on last year is a little hard because they didn't run the ball effectively last year for the majority of the year. If Dwayne can run the ball effectively then he changes the script of the run game with the Lions, as "effectively" wasnt quite there before.

 

IDK, I do see how the upside is pretty capped as he won't become a workhorse, but I ssee a lot of potential here for carries, catches, and TDs. 

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5 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

He's an obvious hold, except in shallow leagues, but I am not seeing great upside. 

Then tune in next Sunday and keep your eyes on Dwayne the Pain Train.

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Just now, taobball said:

IDK, I do see how the upside is pretty capped as he won't become a workhorse, but I ssee a lot of potential here for carries, catches, and TDs. 

 

I actually agree with almost everything in your analysis. I'm just concerned that Washington is a rookie and considered a relatively raw RB. It doesn't personally bother me, but a lot of NFL coaches might automatically assume he will have issues in pass protection. On paper, I could definitely see him being productive in a passing role. But I am trying to weigh the coaching factor. 

 

Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

Then tune in next Sunday and keep your eyes on Dwayne the Pain Train.

 

I'm likely starting him since my RBs are terrible ;). Just not thrilled about it. Also, I prefer President Dwayne The Rock Washington. 

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4 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

I actually agree with almost everything in your analysis. I'm just concerned that Washington is a rookie and considered a relatively raw RB. It doesn't personally bother me, but a lot of NFL coaches might automatically assume he will have issues in pass protection. On paper, I could definitely see him being productive in a passing role. But I am trying to weigh the coaching factor. 

 

 

I'm likely starting him since my RBs are terrible ;). Just not thrilled about it. Also, I prefer President Dwayne The Rock Washington. 

 

The coaching factor would concern me a lot more if he had fumbled (either literally or otherwise) at his first opportunity or if we saw a bit more of Zach Zenner. To me, the absence of Zenner from the box score entirely tells me that they're ready to make this a two back committee, and to me on the Lions, that means he's gonna have to catch and run.

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He's getting 10 touches and goal line ... pretty much a 2 round pick if drafts were redone at this point (joking, kinda)

 

you can knock Washington all you want, Rb is so bleak he's a must add/own in all leagues 

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A lot of industry analysts will be pointing to Jordan Howard as this week's priority pickup, but you want this guy instead.

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Just now, Sun Tzu said:

A lot of industry analysts will be pointing to Jordan Howard as this week's priority pickup, but you want this guy instead.

 

Washington should definitely be owned already, Howard to a slightly lesser extent, but I digress and say I agree with you. 

 

There is a much clearer opportunity here for Washington than really any of the other waiver wire RBs. Ameer is done for the year, Zenner might as well be lost at sea somewhere in the mid-Atlantic, and Riddick might be one of the worst rushers in the NFL. 

 

I like the talent and upside of Dixon/Howard/etc. much better, but you're talking about potentially crowded 3-4 man RBBCs. 

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If you show me someone who says dwayne the pain train won't be a top 15 RB going fourth, ill show you an idiot.

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18 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

I like the talent and upside of Dixon/Howard/etc. much better, but you're talking about potentially crowded 3-4 man RBBCs. 

 

I like the talent and upside of Washington far better than Howard, who did not pass the eye test for me last night.  Dixon is more of a wild card, but I generally bet against players coming back from injury.

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On ‎9‎/‎19‎/‎2016 at 9:31 AM, LongBalls said:

 

 He has the best potential of any waiver wire RB to become a feature back.  Not saying that he will become one.  But if you look at the situation.......Big and fast, and better runner between the tackles, good receiver, only a scatback for competition, already a goal line back, good passing game, etc,....If the stars align right, he could become a feature back the lions could really use.  I'd rather take a chance on someone like Washington, instead of the Asiata's, Mickinnons, Ajayi, whittaker, artis-payne that are being scooped up now.  Those RB's are only fillers for me, and won't win the league.  Is Washington a lotto ticket?  Probably.  But I'd rather take a chance on him now, then wait until he does blow up.  It's players like Washington that could be the player that wins the league for you.  And he deserves a spot on the bench until we figure out if his usage will change, which should be shown in the next couple weeks.

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Went Zero RB so adding him was a great choice. I only have Sims and Ware and Jamal is close to being back, therefor I would welcome my newest RB2 in DW

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2 hours ago, Sun Tzu said:

A lot of industry analysts will be pointing to Jordan Howard as this week's priority pickup, but you want this guy instead.

 

tl;dr, 3 sections, Washington v Howard Week 3, Washington v Howard Off/PreSeason Narrative, Washington v Theo Touch Share

 

sorry was going to go thru and bolden italic and underline passages but am just way too tired. Kno that I won't be able to edit in the morning.

 

I always feel awkward making a direct comparison between two players like Howard and Washington, because I feel like for a lot of people this is going to lean on AC advice, but to me this is something that a lot of owners are dealing with and I think the comparison of these two players is vital so here's my case:

 

Before getting into anything deeper, I briefly wanted to cover consistency in terms of Howard and Washington. Coming out of the draft, the big knock on Washington was general consistency, and questions whether he could do basic things as a Runningback. Although not a complete measure of consistency, I thought Washington looked much more effective consistently than Jordan Howard, despite what the comparing statlines (10/38 and 9/45) seem to indicated.

 

Here are the Week 3 Carries from Washington and Howard in descending order.

Dwayne Washington Week 3:

9, 9, 7, 5, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, -1

 

Jordan Howard Week 3:

36, 14, 1, 1, 0, 0, -1, -3, -3 

 

Now obviously Dwayne has a fair number of 1 yard carries, but here are some small sample size stats that I like:

% of Carries with + yardage:

DW: 90% (all but goal line)

JH: 67%

 

% of Carries 5+ yards:

DW: 50%

JH: 22%

 

YPC excluding longest:

DW: 3.33

JH: 1.125 

 

Yeah these are all forms of statistical manipulation, but just use them as exercise/food for thought.

 

So to me, Dwayne was the one who brought consistency to the offense and the RB position. On more plays than not, Howard was as good as an incomplete pass. Not to mention the fact that for Dwayne, these stats come against a division rival flashing a tough Run D (Packers) and for Jordan, these stats come against a questionable Dallas front.

 

Then you look at Dwayne and Jordan's positions in their organization and the process of camp+ for them. As a Bears fan, I can tell you that Jordan Howard was drafted with a thought in mind that he would have a significant role in this backfield as soon as Week 1. Drafted into a backfield with questionable talent (Langford+Carey), the Bears were seemingly willing to give Howard the opportunity to be the featured back in the offense. Instead, he spent all camp playing third fiddle to Langforfd and Carey, and I don't think this is a result of him being a rookie or anything of that coaching ilk, I truly believe he was falling short of expectations, not even being named Langford's back-up. When you saw the OC talk on Howard this week, the things he said were that he looked fastER than in camp, which to me suggested that, while the coaches were trying to bring in some optimism as Howard matures, the reason he did not move up the depth chart prior to the injury bug in Chicago was purely performance based.

 

Then you look at a guy like Dwayne Washington. He's drafted to a team that isn't spectacular with RB talent, but between Ameer, Theo, and ZZ, there's not a glaring need, especially considering Ameer's age. The roles in the backfield were pretty well defined, and Dwayne was drafted in the 7th round in a similar fashion that a fantasy owner would take his last round pick: If it works it works, and if it doesn't we'll drop. Not only did Dwayne not get dropped, but he earned a Week 1 role, something Howard failed to do, and even passed Zenner on the depth chart. His talent put him in position to take this role when Ameer fell, and not have Zach Zenner be the guy they tried out first.

 

(To me, Zenner failing to appear for the Lions is the ultimate vote of confidence in Washington. However we define this role, it's his to do with what he may.) 

 

Now we're also trying to compare Dwayne Ameer and Theo's touches in games separately, but I feel like they all deserve to be put together under the umbrella of "Lions" primarily. 

 

2016 Lions Per Game, Running Back Only Stats:

20.67 Carries Per Game ; 8.33 Targets Per Game

 

2015 Lions Per Game, Running Back Only Stats:

18.31 Carries Per Game ; 10.44 Targets Per Game

 

So sort of combining those numbers and rounding, we're taking a look at about 19 Carries 9 targets. 

Now for Theo's share:

 

2016 Theo Riddick Per Game:

9.33 Carries Per Game ; 6.33 Targets Per Game

 

2015 Theo Riddick Per Game:

2.69 Carries Per Game ; 6,19 Targets Per Game

 

So basically, manipulate and do with these numbers what you may. Here's what I'll say:

 

While the Detroit Lions are trying to get Theo Riddick the ball more as an actual running back, whether or not that experiment will work out does not seem incredibly more or less likely than the Dwayne Washington experiment. If you told me Theo regressed slightly and was seeing close to 7 Carries per game, I think that's fairly reasonable and gives Dwayne 10-15 to work with, but if Dwayne proves to just be the better back, I can see Theo get back to being more of a 3-4 carries per game guy, in which case Dwayne's work load increases. There's also a pretty clear 2-4 targets missing to backs. While the passing to backs has been less heavy in the early part of 2016 for the Lions, I'd be willing to say that if Dwayne excels and Stafford gets comfortable with him, we could see closer to the 4 targets per game range. It's worth noting that while they didn't compile the 80/700 of Theo Riddick, Joique and Ameer combined for 47 Receptions and well over 450 yards themselves. 

 

So there's kinda the summation of my thoughts on Dwayne: there's carries and targets up for grab in Detroit. Right now, a lot of the "gray area" carries (so to speak) are going to Theo. However, Theo was effective and earned that contract extension as someone who didn't run even 3 times a game. This past week, Theo finally hit 100 career carries (drafted '13). Theo's been utilized more by this offense recently, and while I by no means believe Dwayne will faze Theo out, I do see a way in which Theo's 2016 role regresses towards his 2015 role, and if tht's the case, there's more carries and targets for Dwayne to find, and at least have the opportunity to excel at. 

Edited by taobball

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@taobball - quality stuff there, great analysis

 

i also believe DTrain is the better spec here, but glad to have both him and Howard rostered through all 4 leagues.  

 

both with plus match ups this week, cool that they will be plying their wares in the same game - gonna be a fun afternoon watching their respective gigs flesh out.

Edited by pastorofmuppets2

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15 hours ago, burninglegs said:

 

I am a Lions fan. Riddick is not the answer. He is not a 3 down back. He is not a between the tackles RB. The last two weeks show that; 21 rushes for 46 yards. He is who we thought he was. A receiving back that could take a handful of carries a game if needed. This job is for Washington taking if he is capable and ready. Riddick is not the answer for the Lions. 

You should know that I agree with you.  What I meant originally is that the inept coaching of this team doesn't always do what seems so very obvious.  Riddick between the tackles should end, and Washington should get at least 1/2 the carries out-right, but will that happen??  I have my doubts.

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Lions coach Jim Caldwell blamed the offensive line for Theo Riddick's struggles on the ground Week 3.

 
Edited by chud12

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