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PuzzBeterson

Rookies & Fantasy

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I often see questions about rookies in yearly leagues. It's a familiair sight to see someone reach for a nice rookie somewhere around the fourth or even third round of redrafts. Someone on another board asked if there have been rookies who put up 1st round value in their first season. Over the last ten years, there have only been two. Curry and Towns. Before that, Chris Paul put up #19 value as a rookie. 

 

So a quick checkup on the value of rookies in their first year (obviously, in dynasty/keeper settings, their valuation is much different), over the last decade:

 

1st Round Rookies who put up top 100 value in their first season:

 

1  ---  11  ---  Stephen Curry
1  ---  12  ---  Karl-Anthony Towns
3  ---  25  ---  Anthony Davis
4  ---  38  ---  Kyrie Irving
5  ---  50  ---  Kristaps Porzingis
5  ---  51  ---  Brandon Roy
5  ---  51  ---  Brook Lopez
5  ---  51  ---  Damian Lillard
5  ---  56  ---  Nerlens Noel
6  ---  71  ---  Tyreke Evans
6  ---  72  ---  Ricky Rubio
7  ---  73  ---  Eric Gordon
7  ---  78  ---  Kawhi Leonard
7  ---  84  ---  Kevin Durant
8  ---  88  ---  Kenneth Faried
8  ---  91  ---  Al Horford
8  ---  95  ---  OJ Mayo
8  ---  96  ---  Michael Carter-Williams
9  ---  100  ---  John Wall

 

As you can see, the drop-off after the first two, and then again after the first four guys listed, is quite steep. 


Rookies who put up top 208 value (16 team, 13 player size):

 

9  ---  103  ---  Greg Monroe
9  ---  105  ---  Jahlil Okafor
10  ---  117  ---  Brandon Jennings
10  ---  119  ---  Kyle Lowry
10  ---  120  ---  Myles Turner
11  ---  121  ---  Bradley Beal
11  ---  122  ---  Rudy Fernandez
11  ---  123  ---  Marc Gasol
11  ---  124  ---  Klay Thompson
11  ---  125  ---  Derrick Rose
11  ---  127  ---  Nikola Mirotic
11  ---  130  ---  Andrew Wiggins
11  ---  131  ---  Victor Oladipo
12  ---  134  ---  Ed Davis
12  ---  135  ---  Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
12  ---  135  ---  Thaddeus Young
12  ---  136  ---  Willie Cauley-Stein
12  ---  141  ---  Iman Shumpert
12  ---  143  ---  Darren Collison
12  ---  143  ---  Jabari Parker
13  ---  145  ---  Anthony Morrow
13  ---  149  ---  Andre Drummond
13  ---  149  ---  DJ White
13  ---  149  ---  Marcus Smart
13  ---  150  ---  LaMarcus Aldridge
13  ---  150  ---  Taj Gibson
13  ---  151  ---  Andrea Bargnani
13  ---  156  ---  James Harden
14  ---  158  ---  Kevin Love
14  ---  159  ---  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
14  ---  164  ---  Joakim Noah
14  ---  164  ---  Maurice Harkless
14  ---  164  ---  Rudy Gay
14  ---  165  ---  Trey Burke
14  ---  166  ---  DJ Augustin
14  ---  167  ---  Paul George
15  ---  170  ---  Courtney Lee
15  ---  170  ---  Luis Scola
15  ---  170  ---  Rajon Rondo
15  ---  173  ---  Kemba Walker
15  ---  176  ---  D'Angelo Russell
15  ---  176  ---  Toney Douglas
15  ---  177  ---  Michael Beasley
15  ---  178  ---  Elfrid Payton
15  ---  179  ---  Wesley Johnson
16  ---  182  ---  Larry Nance
16  ---  183  ---  Juan Carlos Navarro
16  ---  183  ---  Terrence Jones
16  ---  184  ---  Randy Foye
16  ---  186  ---  TJ McConnell
16  ---  187  ---  Anthony Randolph
16  ---  190  ---  Mason Plumlee
16  ---  190  ---  Russell Westbrook
16  ---  191  ---  Jrue Holiday
16  ---  191  ---  Yi Jianlian
16  ---  192  ---  MarShon Brooks
16  ---  192  ---  Ryan Anderson
17  ---  193  ---  Jared Sullinger
17  ---  193  ---  Renaldo Balkman
17  ---  194  ---  Brandon Knight
17  ---  195  ---  Jason Thompson
17  ---  195  ---  Tarence Kinsey
17  ---  196  ---  Tim Hardaway Jr
17  ---  197  ---  Greg Oden
17  ---  200  ---  Patrick Patterson
17  ---  201  ---  Chris Singleton
17  ---  201  ---  Dion Waiters
17  ---  202  ---  Jusuf Nurkic
17  ---  202  ---  Kelly Olynyk
17  ---  202  ---  Nicolas Batum
17  ---  202  ---  Ty Lawson
17  ---  203  ---  Devin Booker
17  ---  204  ---  Tyler Zeller
18  ---  206  ---  Marreese Speights
18  ---  206  ---  Omri Casspi
18  ---  207  ---  Danilo Gallinari
18  ---  207  ---  Sean Williams

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Took a look at how 1st round rookie picks in leagues like ours do over the course of years, their general value and how it differs per year, experience and pick.
 

Consider the top 16 rookies as being 1st rounders in most leagues. 
 

Going back ten years, I've taken the value of the past season for all top 15 picks. If a player is not in the league anymore or yet has to play a game, he gets a rank of 466, 1 point worse than the lowest ranked player last year. Not totally fair, but it'll have to do.
 

The lower the rank, the better the value.
 

Averge rank per draft year (for 2015-2016 season):

2006 - 353
2007 - 256
2008 - 195
2009 - 252
2010 - 170
2011 - 151
2012 - 197
2013 - 167
2014 - 248
2015 - 227
 

Ranks are skewed by, for example, the 2009 draft having loads of players who are out of the league already. So that's not the greatest measurement. However, I wanted to know the value per pick most of all, and this shouldn't suffer as much from outliers and the influence of experience and age.

The average value per pick over the last ten years (for 2015-2016):
 

#1 - 172
#2 - 149
#3 - 154
#4 - 140
#5 - 213
#6 - 274
#7 - 177
#8 - 187
#9 - 199
#10 - 224
#11 - 200
#12 - 291
#13 - 251
#14 - 304
#15 - 284
#16 - 326
 

Clear line there. Bargs, Oden and Bennett totally screw up the value of the #1 picks overall. Do GM's tend to take more risk with a #1 pick? The trend from 2-16 seems like an expected one, with a dip around 5 and 6. I think I've read somehwere before that pick 5 in general is often one of the worst ones in history. 

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Kris Dunn is this year's 5th pick. However, when you throw out the pick by Boston out the equations he really should have been 4th and there would be a desert in terms of talent left in the field. So yeah I guess your theory holds.

 

In terms of variance in value, it is quite interesting.  I feel like the worst teams have the luxury of taking a pick that has the high potential but highest bust %. I remember there is a year projection report that scouts put together indicating bust and superstar % based on their college history and physical aspects. Interestingly this model cannot project Euro players (because of lack of comparative data), which also may cause bad euro picks at the top, as teams cannot properly gauge their values.

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It's the same thing every year. People reach for rookies in redrafts and usually end up regretting it. Statistically speaking, rookies underperform. I say underperform because people usually take them 2-3 (at least!) rounds ahead of their actual value. Sure, one could get lucky, but I rarely take rookie before the 9th round, unless they're just some freak of nature. 

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I love

9 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I often see questions about rookies in yearly leagues. It's a familiair sight to see someone reach for a nice rookie somewhere around the fourth or even third round of redrafts. Someone on another board asked if there have been rookies who put up 1st round value in their first season. Over the last ten years, there have only been two. Curry and Towns. Before that, Chris Paul put up #19 value as a rookie. 

 

So a quick checkup on the value of rookies in their first year (obviously, in dynasty/keeper settings, their valuation is much different), over the last decade:

 

1st Round Rookies who put up top 100 value in their first season:

 

1  ---  11  ---  Stephen Curry
1  ---  12  ---  Karl-Anthony Towns
3  ---  25  ---  Anthony Davis
4  ---  38  ---  Kyrie Irving
5  ---  50  ---  Kristaps Porzingis
5  ---  51  ---  Brandon Roy
5  ---  51  ---  Brook Lopez
5  ---  51  ---  Damian Lillard
5  ---  56  ---  Nerlens Noel
6  ---  71  ---  Tyreke Evans
6  ---  72  ---  Ricky Rubio
7  ---  73  ---  Eric Gordon
7  ---  78  ---  Kawhi Leonard
7  ---  84  ---  Kevin Durant
8  ---  88  ---  Kenneth Faried
8  ---  91  ---  Al Horford
8  ---  95  ---  OJ Mayo
8  ---  96  ---  Michael Carter-Williams
9  ---  100  ---  John Wall

 

As you can see, the drop-off after the first two, and then again after the first four guys listed, is quite steep. 


Rookies who put up top 208 value (16 team, 13 player size):

 

9  ---  103  ---  Greg Monroe
9  ---  105  ---  Jahlil Okafor
10  ---  117  ---  Brandon Jennings
10  ---  119  ---  Kyle Lowry
10  ---  120  ---  Myles Turner
11  ---  121  ---  Bradley Beal
11  ---  122  ---  Rudy Fernandez
11  ---  123  ---  Marc Gasol
11  ---  124  ---  Klay Thompson
11  ---  125  ---  Derrick Rose
11  ---  127  ---  Nikola Mirotic
11  ---  130  ---  Andrew Wiggins
11  ---  131  ---  Victor Oladipo
12  ---  134  ---  Ed Davis
12  ---  135  ---  Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
12  ---  135  ---  Thaddeus Young
12  ---  136  ---  Willie Cauley-Stein
12  ---  141  ---  Iman Shumpert
12  ---  143  ---  Darren Collison
12  ---  143  ---  Jabari Parker
13  ---  145  ---  Anthony Morrow
13  ---  149  ---  Andre Drummond
13  ---  149  ---  DJ White
13  ---  149  ---  Marcus Smart
13  ---  150  ---  LaMarcus Aldridge
13  ---  150  ---  Taj Gibson
13  ---  151  ---  Andrea Bargnani
13  ---  156  ---  James Harden
14  ---  158  ---  Kevin Love
14  ---  159  ---  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
14  ---  164  ---  Joakim Noah
14  ---  164  ---  Maurice Harkless
14  ---  164  ---  Rudy Gay
14  ---  165  ---  Trey Burke
14  ---  166  ---  DJ Augustin
14  ---  167  ---  Paul George
15  ---  170  ---  Courtney Lee
15  ---  170  ---  Luis Scola
15  ---  170  ---  Rajon Rondo
15  ---  173  ---  Kemba Walker
15  ---  176  ---  D'Angelo Russell
15  ---  176  ---  Toney Douglas
15  ---  177  ---  Michael Beasley
15  ---  178  ---  Elfrid Payton
15  ---  179  ---  Wesley Johnson
16  ---  182  ---  Larry Nance
16  ---  183  ---  Juan Carlos Navarro
16  ---  183  ---  Terrence Jones
16  ---  184  ---  Randy Foye
16  ---  186  ---  TJ McConnell
16  ---  187  ---  Anthony Randolph
16  ---  190  ---  Mason Plumlee
16  ---  190  ---  Russell Westbrook
16  ---  191  ---  Jrue Holiday
16  ---  191  ---  Yi Jianlian
16  ---  192  ---  MarShon Brooks
16  ---  192  ---  Ryan Anderson
17  ---  193  ---  Jared Sullinger
17  ---  193  ---  Renaldo Balkman
17  ---  194  ---  Brandon Knight
17  ---  195  ---  Jason Thompson
17  ---  195  ---  Tarence Kinsey
17  ---  196  ---  Tim Hardaway Jr
17  ---  197  ---  Greg Oden
17  ---  200  ---  Patrick Patterson
17  ---  201  ---  Chris Singleton
17  ---  201  ---  Dion Waiters
17  ---  202  ---  Jusuf Nurkic
17  ---  202  ---  Kelly Olynyk
17  ---  202  ---  Nicolas Batum
17  ---  202  ---  Ty Lawson
17  ---  203  ---  Devin Booker
17  ---  204  ---  Tyler Zeller
18  ---  206  ---  Marreese Speights
18  ---  206  ---  Omri Casspi
18  ---  207  ---  Danilo Gallinari
18  ---  207  ---  Sean Williams

 

Dude, major props for putting this together. This is really interesting. This kind of thing is probably instinctual common knowledge, but it's cool to see on the screen.

 

I will say that I love drafting rookies. The unknown is fun. However, it would be interesting to cross reference this list with the average draft pick/draft dollars spent on these picks. I would wager that, in recent history, anyone who spent $20 on KAT or Davis, or $10 on Kyrie, Curry, Porzingas did not regret it. It's all about talent evaluation and path to minutes with these picks. That's why, in redraft, Simmons will be the best Rookie to own this year (minutes/talent both there) but guys like Dunn or Ingram should not go high or for much at all (path to minutes murky).  

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Drafting high profile rookies is one very risky business and it may be more realistic to think of sitting, watching and picking available rookies up during the season instead.  Depending on league size etc, that's what might have happened (albeit very quickly) with a lot of successful Porzingis or Jokic owners last season.

 

Here's one obvious point I would add to the analysis:  the overall seasonal value that a rookie puts up can be highly skewed by the development process / minutes he goes throughout during the season ie. he may be invisible the first two months of the season but become a relatively stable (but still minor) contributor in the last two, which makes waiver wire watching of rookies a different matter from the drafting process.

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When I find time to do it,I want to analyze the value of rookies,per pick, over the run of their first, second and third seasons.

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31 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

When I find time to do it,I want to analyze the value of rookies,per pick, over the run of their first, second and third seasons.

 

That would be interesting because it would allow for the measurement of things we commonly talk about in fantasy, like the "rookie wall" effect or the "unleashing" effect as they relate to rookie fantasy values over the spread of a season.

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Rookie Ranks for this year:

 

2017 Rookies who put up top 100 value in their first season (16 team, 13 player size, 9 cat):

Round    Rank        Name
3-- 36--  Joel Embiid


2017 Rookies who put up top 200 value in their first season:

Round    Rank        Name
8-- 113--        Malcolm Brogdon
10--    158--         Yogi Ferrell
11--     166--         Alex Poythress
11--     173--         Guillermo Hernangomez
12--     190--         Dario Saric
13--     205--         Caris LeVert
13--     206--         Shawn Long
13--     207--         Marquese Chriss

 

Value by 2017 pick:

1    Ben Simmons - NR
2    Brandon Ingram - 316
3    Kris Dunn -283
4    Dragan Bender - 386
5    Buddy Hield - 223
6    Jamal Murray - 222
7    Marquese Chriss - 207
8    Domantas Sabonis - 326
9    Jaylen Brown - 322
10    Deyonta Davis - 408
11    Skal Labissiere - 234
12    Malik Beasley - 395
13    Jakob Poeltl - 372
14    Henry Ellenson - 449
15    Timothe Luwawu - 335
16    Ivica Zubac - 218
17    Malachi Richardson - 415
18    Denzel Valentine - 321
19    Juan Hernangomez - 289
20    Dejounte Murray - 431
21    Damian Jones - 450
22    Furkan Korkmaz - NR 
23    Georgios Papagiannis - 260
24    DeAndre Bembry - 426
25    Brice Johnson - 398
26    Wade Baldwin - 405
27    Cheick Diallo - 315
28    Ante Zizic -  NR
29    Guerschon Yabusele - NR
30    Taurean Prince - 285 
 

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Rookie Ranks for this year:
 
2017 Rookies who put up top 100 value in their first season (16 team, 13 player size, 9 cat):
Round    Rank        Name

None

2017 Rookies who put up top 200 value in their first season:
Round    Rank        Name

Brogdon (110)

Ferrell (156)

Saric (190)

Willy Hernangomez (176)
 
Value by 2017 pick:
Rnd.    Pick    Player

1    1    Ben Simmons - n/a
1    2    Brandon Ingram - 332
1    3    Jaylen Brown - 329
1    4    Dragan Bender - 392
1    5    Kris Dunn - 290
1    6    Buddy Hield - 220
1    7    Jamal Murray - 217
1    8    Marquese Chriss - 212
1    9    Jakob Pöltl - 378
1    10    Thon Maker - 352
1    11    Domantas Sabonis - 330
1    12    Taurean Prince - 285
1    13    Georgios Papagiannis - 250
1    14    Denzel Valentine - 328
1    15    Juan Hernangómez - 292
1    16    Guerschon Yabusele - n/a
1    17    Wade Baldwin IV -414
1    18    Henry Ellenson - 468
1    19    Malik Beasley - 403
1    20    Caris LeVert - 208
1    21    DeAndre' Bembry - 441
1    22    Malachi Richardson - 423
1    23    Ante Žižić - n/a
1    24    Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot - 335
1    25    Brice Johnson - 410
1    26    Furkan Korkmaz - n/a
1    27    Pascal Siakam - 257
1    28    Skal Labissière - 237
1    29    Dejounte Murray - 443
1    30    Damian Jones - 470
2    31    Deyonta Davis - 413
2    32    Ivica Zubac - 214
2    33    Cheick Diallo - 316
2    34    Tyler Ulis - 281
2    35    Rade Zagorac - n/a
2    36    Malcolm Brogdon - 110
2    37    Chinanu Onuaku - 299
2    38    Patrick McCaw - 341
2    39    David Michineau - n/a
2    40    Diamond Stone - 474
2    41    Stephen Zimmerman - 445
2    42    Isaiah Whitehead - 308
2    43    Zhou Qi - n/a 
2    44    Isaia Cordinier - n/a
2    45    Demetrius Jackson - 463
2    46    A. J. Hammons - 447
2    47    Jake Layman - 459
2    48    Paul Zipser - 338
2    49    Michael Gbinije - 478
2    50    Georges Niang - 475
2    51    Ben Bentil -  n/a
2    52    Joel Bolomboy - 434
2    53    Petr Cornelie - n/a
2    54    Kay Felder - 420
2    55    Marcus Paige - n/a
2    56    Daniel Hamilton - n/a
2    57    Wang Zhelin - n/a
2    58    Abdel Nader - n/a
2    59    Isaiah Cousins - n/a
2    60    Tyrone Wallace - n/a

 

 

Next writeup will be on 'the value of rookies,per pick, over the run of their first, second and third seasons' as promised earlier. 

 

 

EDit - hadnt noticed I did a roundup in April already. Seems like there have been some very slight chnages in ranking sinse then. Either way. Don't draft rookies in redraft. ;)

Edited by PuzzBeterson

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So, just for fun: Created a really broad estimate for rookie perfomance this year. Obviously, everything is totally dependend on how the roles of these rookies play out of the next few months. 

 

Feel free to shoot, yell, complain laugh at it, maybe it's a fun starting point for good discussion, and we could come to a 'final' overview of expected production and valuation:

 

Rk Rank Tm Player PTS TRB AST FG% 3pt FT% blk stl to
1 90-100 PHI Markelle Fultz 16 3.5 3.5 0.43 1.6 0.64 0.4 0.7 2.8
2 100-120 LAL Lonzo Ball 11 4.5 6.8 0.45 1.6 0.70 0.2 0.9 3.0
3 170-200 BOS Jayson Tatum 9 4.5 1.0 0.44 0.7 0.80 0.6 0.6 1.1
4 200-250 PHO Josh Jackson 6 4.0 2.0 0.48 0.4 0.55 0.6 1.0 1.4
5 150-175 SAC De'Aaron Fox 11 3.0 4.0 0.44 0.3 0.72 0.1 0.7 2.0
6 200-250 ORL Jonathan Isaac 7 5.0 0.4 0.48 0.4 0.75 1.0 0.5 1.0
7 130-150 MIN Lauri Markkanen 12 4.0 0.3 0.45 1.0 0.80 0.3 0.3 1.4
8 250+ NYK Frank Ntilikina 7 2.0 3.0 0.42 0.8 0.65 0.1 0.5 1.8
9 175-200 DAL Dennis Smith 14 2.0 5.0 0.42 1.1 0.70 0.2 1.0 3.1
10 250+ SAC Zach Collins 4 1.5 0.0 0.54 0.0 0.74 0.3 0.0 0.8
11 200-230 CHO Malik Monk 9 1.8 1.6 0.43 1.2 0.80 0.0 0.5 1.5
12 190-220 DET Luke Kennard 9 2.5 1.5 0.45 1.6 0.80 0.2 0.6 1.4
13 100-130 DEN Donovan Mitchell 9 2.5 2.3 0.40 1.6 0.78 0.3 1.3 1.6
14 200-230 MIA Bam Adebayo 7 3.8 0.5 0.49 0.0 0.62 0.9 0.5 1.2
15 200-230 POR Justin Jackson 7 2.5 0.5 0.41 0.7 0.70 0.3 0.3 1.2
16 250+ CHI Justin Patton n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
17 250+ MIL D.J. Wilson 3 2.0 0.5 0.48 0.4 0.78 0.7 0.1 0.8
18 250+ IND T.J. Leaf 8 3.8 0.7 0.52 0.4 0.68 0.4 0.2 0.8
19 130-150 ATL John Collins 13 6.8 0.5 0.50 0.0 0.75 0.8 0.4 1.5
20 250+ POR Harry Giles n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
21 250+ OKC Terrance Ferguson n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
22 250+ BRK Jarrett Allen 5 3.8 0.3 0.50 0.0 0.54 0.9 0.3 1.2
23 250+ TOR OG Anunoby 4 3.5 0.8 0.50 0.5 0.60 0.7 0.7 0.8
24 250+ UTA Tyler Lydon n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
25 250+ ORL Anzejs Pasecniks n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
26 170-200 POR Caleb Swanigan 9 6.4 1.5 0.48 0.6 0.77 0.5 0.4 0.9
27 130-150 BRK Kyle Kuzma 9 4.5 1.0 0.44 1.3 0.70 0.3 0.3 1.1

 

Fultz would be part of a select group of rookies to put up 16/3.5/3.5. I think he'll be that good. I think he'll have the best chance to post top-100 value (I have him between 80 and 90 with this production.)

Ball would probably just fall outside of the top100 with those stats. A bit more steals would vault him into 75-100 range. I have some trouble putting up a number for his TO's. His handle is a bit shaky, but he doesn't handle the ball as much as a lot of other great passers do. However, he could be a target for pickpockets.

I have 10 guys possibly entering top 200 range, which is a lot. Some might be there due to playing 3 or 4 games in the last 2 weeks of the season, you can't predict something like that. 

Two guys averaging 5+ ast as a rookie is a lot - since the 1983 season it has only been done 58 times. 

Took into consideration college stats, progression, pro-games up to this point, team status, coaching, role, etc. 

Edited by PuzzBeterson

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Some more notes, which I should have included in the previous post.

Tatum will be good, but just a piece of the machine. Expect him to be really efficient after some early struggles and adjustment to role. 

I think Josh Jackson's stats will look an awful lot like Corey Brewer's stats until he fully figures out his role in the pros. 

Fox will look GOOD, if you can ignore his lack of range for now. He'll get there. Last night, handles were on full display like prime Oliver Miller.

I love Isaac's game for fantasy. Just not this year already. One of my favorite picks for dynasty.

Markkanen is growing on me. I think he's what Bargs was supposed to be. Also, Bargs just was born a decade too early.

Ntilikina will be good, but I think you'll have to have some patience with him (and the Knicks).

DSJ should be a great fantasy guy in a year from now, and a joy to watch on the court. BUT, I think his efficiency will be awful in his first season. His Rank should be 130-150 btw, not 175-200.

Zach Collins - Looked fine on defense, but is he even a starter? I think he's just insurance in case Nurk walks.

I have a hard time pegging Monk. 

I have a hard time pegging Kennard, but I think he'll be a good player.

Mitchell is my favorite rookie in this draft. Don't see him carving out a top 100 ranking already, unless he explodes. But he'll be good, like really good. 

Bam looks like he has way more tools than we expected him to. Did you see him bring up the ball last night? Could be a fun player, just not as a rookie. FT's were fun too, last night.

I'ma skip a few names and mention John Collins. My favorite sleeper pick in this draft, and should be drafted in lottery. Will be a good one for ATL. Think Amare type of stats.

OG will be really good, but don't see him putting up great fantasy stats soon. 

Swanigan could start on opening night with Vonleh shelved. Good offensive player, not so good on defense. But nice fit in Portland. I like him.

Kuzma is a guy I've been watching since his Utes days. Didn't fully blossom in Salt Lake, but he's got a good amount fo talent and fundamentals. Great fit in LA. Utah wouldve loved him as well!

 

 

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15 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

Some more notes, which I should have included in the previous post.

Tatum will be good, but just a piece of the machine. Expect him to be really efficient after some early struggles and adjustment to role. 

I think Josh Jackson's stats will look an awful lot like Corey Brewer's stats until he fully figures out his role in the pros. 

Fox will look GOOD, if you can ignore his lack of range for now. He'll get there. Last night, handles were on full display like prime Oliver Miller.

I love Isaac's game for fantasy. Just not this year already. One of my favorite picks for dynasty.

Markkanen is growing on me. I think he's what Bargs was supposed to be. Also, Bargs just was born a decade too early.

Ntilikina will be good, but I think you'll have to have some patience with him (and the Knicks).

DSJ should be a great fantasy guy in a year from now, and a joy to watch on the court. BUT, I think his efficiency will be awful in his first season. His Rank should be 130-150 btw, not 175-200.

Zach Collins - Looked fine on defense, but is he even a starter? I think he's just insurance in case Nurk walks.

I have a hard time pegging Monk. 

I have a hard time pegging Kennard, but I think he'll be a good player.

Mitchell is my favorite rookie in this draft. Don't see him carving out a top 100 ranking already, unless he explodes. But he'll be good, like really good. 

Bam looks like he has way more tools than we expected him to. Did you see him bring up the ball last night? Could be a fun player, just not as a rookie. FT's were fun too, last night.

I'ma skip a few names and mention John Collins. My favorite sleeper pick in this draft, and should be drafted in lottery. Will be a good one for ATL. Think Amare type of stats.

OG will be really good, but don't see him putting up great fantasy stats soon. 

Swanigan could start on opening night with Vonleh shelved. Good offensive player, not so good on defense. But nice fit in Portland. I like him.

Kuzma is a guy I've been watching since his Utes days. Didn't fully blossom in Salt Lake, but he's got a good amount fo talent and fundamentals. Great fit in LA. Utah wouldve loved him as well!

 

 

 

do you project any of them to crack top 50-75 next season? Who's your top guy for dyno purposes?

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Next season as in 2018-2019? I think Ball has a good chance to be there and Fultz, Collins, Fox, Markkanen, DSJ could all knock on the door for a top 75 rank by then. Maybe Mitchell as well if he takes off. (Give me a few days and I might have that rookie/soph progression thread ready I mentioned earlier).

 

For dynasty, my favorite is Isaac. 

Edited by PuzzBeterson

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While I agree that drafting rookies in redraft is dangerous, and I have a hard time envisioning most of them to crack the top 100, I do wonder what made you settle on 0.7 spg for Fultz?

 

BBM has projected him at 1.4, and he averaged 1.6 in college. What makes you think he won't even average a steal per game while playing fairly heavy minutes for this young Sixers team?

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I had him between 0.7 and 1.0. In most cases, I've taken the conservative approach. He'll be playing off the ball quite a bit this season, and I can imagine he'll need some time adjusting there on the defensive end as well, playing stronger and bigger players at a much higher pace.

 

He had 1.6 in almost 36 minutes a game in college, so the potential is there, but I certainly dont see him surpassing BBM's 1.4 this season. I would feel comfortavle settling on 1.0 as well, but would not project a higher average.

Edited by PuzzBeterson

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These ranks predictions are somehow tied to stats predictions? Swanigan beats Kuzma in all categories but 3pt (and pts tied) yet ranks 50 spots lower. 

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Rankings are added later. Ballpark. Kuzma has almost identical stats but 2x as many threes.

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Think you're very conservative on Smith Jr. 

 

As long as the minutes are there (which it looks like they will) he will crack 1.5 threes and 1.5 steals. Should be close to 3.5-4rbs too, he has BOUNCE!

FG%, FT%, and TOs will be the keys to Smith's season

Edited by Jake the snake

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1 hour ago, Jake the snake said:

Think you're very conservative on Smith Jr. 

 

As long as the minutes are there (which it looks like they will) he will crack 1.5 threes and 1.5 steals. Should be close to 3.5-4rbs too, he has BOUNCE!

FG%, FT%, and TOs will be the keys to Smith's season

 

Not only does DSJ have bounce, he's playing with a front court that isn't exactly known for their rebounding either. He'll definitely get those 3.5-4.0 rpg I think. He'll probably kill you in the efficiency cats though, which is why I don't see him cracking the top 100 during his first season.

 

As far as Fultz goes, I haven't seen nearly enough from him to say whether he gets his steals from good defence or from simply gambling on D. But he should be able to come up with at least 1.0 spg right? While he will be playing off ball a lot, I don't think it'll impact him on the defensive side of the ball really. He should still be guarding the opponent's PG most of the time, simply because you're not going to assign that task to JJ Redick, nor should Ben Simmons be picking up the PG due to the incredible mismatch that would create with either Fultz or Redick marking the SF.

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