Mitchell_McDi

Mauricio Dubon - MIL SS/2nd

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Didn't see a thread, not sure why. This kid hit .323 across A+ and AA, with 9 HR, 69 RBI, 30 SB, 101 runs in 124 games. Those stats are quite nice. His strikeout rate is low at 13 or 14 percent, with a varied walk rate. In 62 games at A+ ball, he had an 11 percent walk rate and a 9 percent strikeout rate. There has to be something to see here. 

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Notes from July 18, 2016:

Dubon, a 26th-round selection in 2013, was not widely viewed as a top-10 Red Sox prospect at the beginning of the season, but that should change going forward after a promising first half for High-A Salem and Portland. Before receiving a promotion to Portland, he displayed considerable improvement at the plate although his power remained non-existent. In 279 plate appearances with Salem in 2016, he slashed .306/.387/.379 with 24 stolen bases. A more advanced approach, confirmed by better strikeout and walk ratios, has enabled his potentially above-average hit tool to further approach its ceiling. In addition, getting on base at a higher frequency allows his plus speed to impact the game on the basepaths. He has adjusted nicely to Double-A pitching, slashing .270/.333/.413 in 69 plate appearances.

The 21-year-old shortstop possesses a slim, athletic frame with room to add more muscle. He has an open stance and makes contact at a high rate because of quick wrists, good hand-eye coordination, and solid to above-average bat speed. Even with additional muscle, his power projection would increase only marginally in part due to a relatively flat swing plane.

Dubon’s approach can continue to develop by refraining from chasing off-speed pitches outside of the zone, consequently helping to prevent soft contact. For example, during the seventh inning of the June 30th game against Hartford, he slapped a weak groundball to the shortstop off of an 83-mph breaking ball on the second pitch of the at-bat as opposed to waiting for an easier pitch to drive. After primarily playing second base last season, he has displayed the ability to handle shortstop this season. An above-average arm coupled with plus range gives him plus potential in the field. His speed and defense tools result in a floor as a utility player, and if his hit tool plays as average or better at the big league level, he will become a regular. —Erich Rothmann

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29852

 

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Dont look now hes hitting .311 with 23 sb already!! With 600 ab thats almost 95 sb. Also great bb/k ratio. He's also 22.  Why no chatter? 

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I know the pre-Dombrowski Red Sox  front office really liked this guy and were particularly high on his makeup and work ethic. I think he'll be a better real life player than a fantasy player. I could see him as a Craig Counsel type i.e. good on base guy with versatility and a strong makeup that starts out as a utility type and works his way into an everyday role.

 

Edit: was comparing to the player Craig Counsel, forgot he coincidentally managers the Brewers

Edited by fletch44

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Just stole his 30th bag of the year. Can't believe the Crew got him, a very young high ceiling MI, Shaw and a decent arm for Thornburg!

Back to Dubon, a lot of people hang the UT guy on him but I think he's got plenty enough skill to be a regular 2nd baseman. His speed and hit tool make him plenty interesting as a fantasy prospect.

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Just got promoted to AAA, started his Colorado Springs career by going 2-6 with a double.  I'd be a little more excited about his future prospects if the major league roster weren't already clogged with Arcia/Villar/Sogard/Perez.  He seems to have a future role with the Brewers, but it's hard to say whether it will be as a utility infielder or the starter at SS or 2B.

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Arcia is the SS of now and likely future. But- 2B is there for him if he impresses in ST and first month or so of the year.

He continues to get disregarded by these lists and ranks but I think he's a guy that could be sneaky valuable in deeper dynasty type formats-

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Dubon is a slick-fielding MI I love with a developing offensive game. 

I wouldn't be shocked if he pulled a "Lindor" and the elite hand-eye skills and good athleticism eventually allowed his offense to catch up (to some extent) with his defense. 

 

He isn't walking, but he's driving the ball to the tune of a .567 slugging percentage - and already has 9 multi-hit games on the season.

 

Am I on an island here, or does this cat have future all-star potential?

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He's playing for Colorado Springs in the PCL right now so I'd be skeptical about his power surge.

 

I think he could produce in the 15-20 range in both HR and SB which would make for a nice roto middle infielder. Not so sure about star upside though.

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Any chance he gets called up soon with Arcia struggling and no one really stepping up at 2B (Villar has  been ok) for MIL?

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It would not shock me if he became a star type player, but it does not appear to be a high % outcome.

He does have the feel of a guy that could totally outdo his projections though. Mostly based on his lightening quick bat and strong wrists. He's gonna make a ton of hard contact and we know that a tweak here for launch angle and suddenly he's hitting for power.

I think he could come up any day.

 

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You think they'll just have him up to back up Villar? Seems like it would be a bit rash to call him up now if he can get reps down there, unless they're completely sold against Arica and Villar.

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1 hour ago, ghollister said:

You think they'll just have him up to back up Villar? Seems like it would be a bit rash to call him up now if he can get reps down there, unless they're completely sold against Arica and Villar.

That's the rub here.

Counsil and Stearns seem to be on same page, so it would take them agreeing to install Dubon as a regular in order to facilitate a call up...otherwise, yeah no point in carrying him for the bench right now. They'll give Arcia plenty of rope, as his D is pretty elite, but Villar will have to do good things until Memorial Day for them to hold off on adding Dubon to the mix.

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Extended his hit streak on Sat to 23 games, but left hurt--knee strain and he's heading to MKE to get checked out...doesn't sound very good :(

Was up to a .337/.343/.567 line on the season.

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5 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Extended his hit streak on Sat to 23 games, but left hurt--knee strain and he's heading to MKE to get checked out...doesn't sound very good :(

Was up to a .337/.343/.567 line on the season.

 

.337/.343?

 

That means he's swinging at everything.   I can't see that translating in MLB unless he's got otherworldly hand eye coordination.

 

Disclaimer- I've owned him for a couple of years so want him to do well.

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Feel bad for him!  I have been following him for a long time, and can’t wait for him to make it to the majors.  When he does, he’ll be the first player ever raised in Honduras to do so, which will feel great for him 

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8 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Blown ACL, done for year...might be ready by next spring...ugh

 

That sucks as i fully expected him to be called up this year. 

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