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The_Commish

Aggressive AST punt .. KD or AD?

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Hoops is back! God how I've missed burning away my time here. Anyways.

 

I landed the 4th pick in my draft, which is super. But things are complicated this year, as we added pick-trading last time. As you can see in the draft sheet below (get on my level),  two or three players have a huge early-round picks advantage. I'm further behind the eight ball with no second-rounder myself, though I have Town to keep in the 3rd, and Kawhi in the 4th. 

 

The plan is to aggressively punt assists to overcome the excessive advantage last year's tankers will have (I also expect all of the PGs will be gobbled up before I pick again the 5th). I expect Durant will fall to me (off chance it's Harden Harden), and while he certainly fits the punt, I'm considering taking more of a swing with Anthony Davis. They both fit the build great, with Durant helping more generously in triples and the percentages, and Davis allowing me a distinct early advantage in all of the non-shooting stats when paired with Towns and Kawhi. 

 

So what say you? Don't overthink it, nab Durant, and play the draft a bit more freely, or take the risk that Davis finally has the full bounce-back season, lock up my big man/defensive stats early, and focus on shooters earlier?

 

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Durant easily, the challenge with AST punt is you have to pay special attention to the OTHER stats that PGs traditionally give you - PTS, 3's, STLs, FT%. Keeping towns in the 3rd and Kawhi in the 4th is absolutely ridiculous, you will have 3 first rounders on your team barring injuries. Kawhi and KAT give you great %s and PTS. Getting Durant or even Harden are both better options than AD for multiple reasons:

- Likely more PTS from Durant, elite 3's and great anchoring in both %s.

- Kawhi is giving you out of position REB which Durant builds on as well and they both have FG% comparable to big men so your need for bigs is reduced.

 

The amount of rebounds from those 3 means you don't need to target bigs that get elite boards. With your 5th/6th round picks you need to get at least 1 or 2 PGs which is going to be tough with McCollum and Bradley off the board as they fit punt AST great. Jerryd Bayless would be good near the end of your draft and potentially Pat Beverley. Rondae Hollis Jefferson would be a great STLs specialist for your team with some more out of position rebounds and blocks.

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Man, that was thorough and convincing.

 

Great point with the OOP rebounds from KD / Kawhi. I think I'm just a little over-concerned with finding enough blocks after the 5th round, but that's the type of deficiency I can address before the deadline when teams are selling. Hoping be comfortably in the playoff picture, and a tier below the pick-loaded squads by then.

 

PG-eligibles are going to be a struggle yes. Hoping George Hill is still lingering by the 6th, and the other late-round guys you mentioned are on my radar. In between it's bigs and threes, bigs and threes.

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Sorry -- don't have time to fully read through everything now, will try to come back to it.

 

But in the first 4 picks, they are something like Westbrook / Harden / Curry / Durant. The nice thing with the 4th pick is, you take whoever is left out of these 4. If it's Durant GREAT, he is my #1 pick this year. 

 

I will re check post to comment in further detail later. 

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Considering everyone in your league has their first round pick, I don't think you have to worry about the pick heavy teams with how much value drops after the first round. You have a strong chance of having 3 top 5 guys in fantasy but 3 of top 10 is a lock if they stay healthy. After you grab 2 PGs you could probably get by just grabbing specialists to fill out the STL/BLK cats. Rondae Hollis Jefferson, Ariza, Bogut later on. 3's are so easy to find late this year, if you totally miss on them Korver, Teletovic, and Bogdanovic are always available at the end.

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I'm definitely leaning towards KD as well here. I think there's a debate to be had, but that 3s/%s impact along with a durability edge (plus the fact that they will do everything they can to keep him fresh) makes me lean towards him. I know the back-to-backs are going to be iffy, and that annoys the hell out of me, but it's not like you can't move him later for great value if you wanted. Davis on the other hand, it's a risk that I don't think you need to take, especially if this league is free of IR spots which it appears to be. In terms of true H2H impact on a week to week basis, the only areas in which KD is truly edged out by Davis are blocks/rebs. The steals gap definitely exists but is unlikely to decide match-ups, and I like Durant to post one of his stronger TO years in a long time in GS. I think it's both the safer move AND the better move in terms of setting yourself up across the board to compete in every non-AST category heavily.

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