brockpapersizer

Giancarlo Stanton 2017 Outlook

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So everyone hates this guy because he always gets injured.  I think there will be incredible value for him as a 3rd rounder or later if he starts the season healthy.  He has #1 player upside. 

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Ceiling: 145 GP

Floor: 50 GP

 

Most likely: 120 GP

 

 

Give me a Braun, Cruz or Springer at that point in the draft.

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7 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Ceiling: 145 GP

Floor: 50 GP

 

Most likely: 120 GP

 

 

Give me a Braun, Cruz or Springer at that point in the draft.

i honestly agree with this. throw maybe cespedes in there depending on where he lands.

 

 

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Bryce Harper was injured every year before he wrecked the league last season.

 

Something to ponder.

 

Having said that I wouldn't touch him before the sixth round.

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6 hours ago, RADickey4Prez said:

Lucky if you get 100 games from him.

 

So I guess everyone was super lucky this year since he got 119

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16 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

So I guess everyone was super lucky this year since he got 119

 

and he played 74 games the season before, what's your point? don't nitpick my post.  even getting 110 games played from your supposed "every day" 1st/2nd round player is a joke.  That's 50+ games from replacement level players.

 

since 2012 he has averaged a total of 115 games played per season. this isn't a small sample size.

Edited by RADickey4Prez

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5 hours ago, RADickey4Prez said:

 

and he played 74 games the season before, what's your point? don't nitpick my post.  even getting 110 games played from your supposed "every day" 1st/2nd round player is a joke.  That's 50+ games from replacement level players.

 

since 2012 he has averaged a total of 115 games played per season. this isn't a small sample size.

 

Well this is the 2017 thread, and it seems like he's going to be a 3rd rounder. He's certainly not going in round 1. If he's healthy to start the season, I'll take that discount. 

 

It's not about sample size, it's about cost. The 2016 season is over. Stanton  in a bust year hit 27 HR while unhealthy quite often when he played.  I didn't own him at all this year, but at the price I'm probably going to own some shares next year if he's healthy to start the season.

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I guess we'll see how the market develops. Could be a better auction value. Guys like Harper, Stanton , and Batista were all no doubt first rounders or borderline this last year.

 

Stanton is 26 right now. Healthy, there's 50 hr upside. Gimme the discount if healthy.

 

 

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I guess we'll see how the market develops. Could be a better auction value. Guys like Harper, Stanton , and Batista were all no doubt first rounders or borderline this last year.

 

Stanton is 26 right now. Healthy, there's 50 hr upside. Gimme the discount if healthy.

 

 

If he is a discount, Im a buyer, but I think for most there are reasons to be skeptical which is why I think he will be discounted:

1. Kind of like the old Tulo argument, if you play H2H the health is really an issue, espeically because it seems the injuries will come later in the season when you want your top picks contributing.  Although, one thing in his favor is usually the replacement option at OF is better than what you had replacing Tulo at SS. 

 

2. If healthy what does he give you?  He is essentially an elite player in 2 of 5 categories, with Runs being likely really good if healthy but not elite and in AVG and SB he is a liability.  The issue is that with HRs on the rise (if you expect that trend to continue) it somewhat hurts his value because the risk may no longer be worth the reward.  

 

So in a draft of 3rd round or even in an auction of a 260 cap say somewhere sub-30, I am a buyer.  

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2 minutes ago, parrothead said:

If he is a discount, Im a buyer, but I think for most there are reasons to be skeptical which is why I think he will be discounted:

1. Kind of like the old Tulo argument, if you play H2H the health is really an issue, espeically because it seems the injuries will come later in the season when you want your top picks contributing.  Although, one thing in his favor is usually the replacement option at OF is better than what you had replacing Tulo at SS. 

 

2. If healthy what does he give you?  He is essentially an elite player in 2 of 5 categories, with Runs being likely really good if healthy but not elite and in AVG and SB he is a liability.  The issue is that with HRs on the rise (if you expect that trend to continue) it somewhat hurts his value because the risk may no longer be worth the reward.  

 

So in a draft of 3rd round or even in an auction of a 260 cap say somewhere sub-30, I am a buyer.  

 

I don't really play in h2h leagues with playoffs. So while not ideal, him getting shut down in September won't kill me.

 

The tulo comparison is not bad.Tulo won me a league and factoring in replacement players, it probably wasn't the worst investment ever. Tulo was always good when healthy. Also, Tulo almost never dropped to round 3 in his prime... just recently. 

 

If the balls are juiced a healthy Stanton can hit 50 and will have a lot of value even if everyone is hitting more. Also could pair well if you went kershaw or altuve early.

 

Theres also a chance everyone's home runs regress back to the previous rate. Maybe the balls get made the same way again and it's some year thing and Stantons power will be huge.

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Noway would I draft this guy in the first 6 rounds. So many better players out there especially given the fact that he literally can not stay on the field, no 0 protection in the lineup (never will) and they wont win so he don't care. 

 

He got his $$$$$$$$$$$

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48 minutes ago, Lordofbaseball1 said:

Noway would I draft this guy in the first 6 rounds. So many better players out there especially given the fact that he literally can not stay on the field, no 0 protection in the lineup (never will) and they wont win so he don't care. 

 

He got his $$$$$$$$$$$

They were a few games under .500 this year, with one of their top players missing 1/2 the season.  The tragic loss of Fernandez is impossible to replace, but I think this is a team trending in the right direction, lots of pieces to like.  The reality is that a guy like Stanton and his power when in the line-up will rarely if ever get "protected" because there is nobody better.   But if guys like Gordon and yelich can get on ahead of him, maybe Ozuna backing him up, the key is that they dont want to walk him if guys are on ahead of him.  

 

 

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Man, I would take him in the second round for sure. Imagine if he stays healthy... I know that's a big IF but 50+HR with a decent AVG?

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On October 19, 2016 at 2:07 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

I don't really play in h2h leagues with playoffs. So while not ideal, him getting shut down in September won't kill me.

 

The tulo comparison is not bad.Tulo won me a league and factoring in replacement players, it probably wasn't the worst investment ever. Tulo was always good when healthy. Also, Tulo almost never dropped to round 3 in his prime... just recently. 

 

If the balls are juiced a healthy Stanton can hit 50 and will have a lot of value even if everyone is hitting more. Also could pair well if you went kershaw or altuve early.

 

Theres also a chance everyone's home runs regress back to the previous rate. Maybe the balls get made the same way again and it's some year thing and Stantons power will be huge.

 

The problem with the Tulo comparison is that Tulo was head & shoulders ahead of any SS at the time. 119 games of Tulo + replacement SS got you #1 SS almost every season. Can't say the same for Stanton.

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25 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

The problem with the Tulo comparison is that Tulo was head & shoulders ahead of any SS at the time. 119 games of Tulo + replacement SS got you #1 SS almost every season. Can't say the same for Stanton.

 

Agreed, but I think Stanton's power upside is kind of equivalent to Tulo's position scarcity. In 5 OF leagues, you need good players and you can't have enough. Tulo didnt finish as the top SS that many times, he just had the most upside and was worth being the top guy.

 

It's a weird comparison, but I think it works, albeit not perfectly.

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

Agreed, but I think Stanton's power upside is kind of equivalent to Tulo's position scarcity. In 5 OF leagues, you need good players and you can't have enough. Tulo didnt finish as the top SS that many times, he just had the most upside and was worth being the top guy.

 

It's a weird comparison, but I think it works, albeit not perfectly.

if homers stay up...stantons homers become less valuable

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

if homers stay up...stantons homers become less valuable

 

less valuable, yes, but his upside also is increased.

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But using your example with 5 OF teams doesn't his value decrease as the replacement is so much worse then say the replacement SS for Tulo would have been by rankings?

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In points leagues, Stanton is not as valuable due to the strikeouts. Guys like him and Crush Davis are usually not near the top in points, especially in my leagues. 

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