Giancarlo Stanton 2017 Outlook

[taobball 7,483]

22 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

I have him as my 4th overall OF in fantasy this year. Ahead of Harper 

 

So do you never adjust for injury or do you not consider Stanton's case predictive of injury? 

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,896]

1 hour ago, mevins31 said:

I have him as my 4th overall OF in fantasy this year. Ahead of Harper 

 

Meh, I would take Harper over Stanton.

[mevins31 1,285]

6 hours ago, taobball said:

 

So do you never adjust for injury or do you not consider Stanton's case predictive of injury? 

 

I think he plays in 145-150

[Magoo 1,510]

45 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

 

I think he plays in 145-150

 

Are you basing that on the fact that none of his injuries are chronic? 

 

 

[parrothead 2,142]

5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

Meh, I would take Harper over Stanton.

Im as critical about anyone about the overdrafting of Harper, but I take him over Stanton, especially if the league-wide HR trend continues, a few years back when it seemed HR's were down, the risk for him seemed OK, although I felt like at best in that Marlins lineup he is probably a real solid 2 category contributor, he is a liability on avg and steals and runs with the lineup behind him and his speed and getting on base, I thought runs are at best probably neutral around 75, 

[parrothead 2,142]

50 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

 

I think he plays in 145-150

On the "he's due" theory?  I think he has been over 125 once in 5 years.  

[brockpapersizer 11,402]

I cant really understand Stanton over Harper, the power isn't too different and Bryce has him on steals and average most likely.

[taobball 7,483]

1 hour ago, mevins31 said:

 

I think he plays in 145-150

 

I mean if that's what your projections/method says and that gives you that grade, I can't fauljt you for it because the talent of Gio is insane, but I've said it in multiple threads, I just refuse to draft Stanton over Cruz. Even at 145 games I don't Stanton hitting considerably more than 43 HRs, I don't see him hitting for a .290+ BA (approx. .250 the last two seasons for Stanton), I don't see him getting much more than 190 R+RBI. I just don't think the upside justifies the draft pick over the safety of Cruz at this point.

 

Stanton's 145 Game average boils down to .266, 36.5 HRs, 79 Rs, 95 RBI

 

right now Cruz's three year average sits at: .286, 42 HRs, 91 Rs, 102 RBI

 

Hell Cruz even stole two bases and Giancarlo stole zero last year. That's literally beating him in every single category and some categories by a significant margin. I get the upside is higher but this debate isn't even close to me. 

[tucker26 2,316]

It's unrealistic to think he plays 150 games and hit 50 home runs? I think if those 150 games are relatively healthy then that's my o/u in HR. But like others have alluded to, it's probably best to be in the 'I'll believe it when I see it" camp.

[taobball 7,483]

2 minutes ago, tucker26 said:

It's unrealistic to think he plays 150 games and hit 50 home runs? I think if those 150 games are relatively healthy then that's my o/u in HR. But like others have alluded to, it's probably best to be in the 'I'll believe it when I see it" camp.

 

Nothing "unrealistic" about it. Has nothing to do with realism. So Stanton hits 50 and hits .275 and Cruz hits .290 and 43... even at this stage it's not SUPER obvious who you'd rather have. The fact that Stanton has shown far more potnetial for lower results that Cruz hasn't in three years makes this literally a lay-up to me. 

 

I just think there's a ton of players that are relatively of similar value points for Stanton outside of stanton getting to his like... 98th% outcome, which is better than pretty much everyone elses' 98th percentile... but there's a lot of good players in those first three to four rounds that I just am not going to take the plunge on Giancarlo stanton with.. and it's not like the .275 is guarenteed even with 50. His contact rates, K%, and BAs haven't been good the last couple years. 

[TrueToTheBlue 345]

2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I mean if that's what your projections/method says and that gives you that grade, I can't fauljt you for it because the talent of Gio is insane, but I've said it in multiple threads, I just refuse to draft Stanton over Cruz. Even at 145 games I don't Stanton hitting considerably more than 43 HRs, I don't see him hitting for a .290+ BA (approx. .250 the last two seasons for Stanton), I don't see him getting much more than 190 R+RBI. I just don't think the upside justifies the draft pick over the safety of Cruz at this point.

 

Stanton's 145 Game average boils down to .266, 36.5 HRs, 79 Rs, 95 RBI

 

right now Cruz's three year average sits at: .286, 42 HRs, 91 Rs, 102 RBI

 

Hell Cruz even stole two bases and Giancarlo stole zero last year. That's literally beating him in every single category and some categories by a significant margin. I get the upside is higher but this debate isn't even close to me. 

 

That's a fair point however Nelly will be 37 this year and at some point age/decline will become a factor for him. Stanton is just entering his prime and has shown top 5 overall player upside. I won't argue that Nelly is the safer choice and I wouldn't blame someone for drafting him, but I'd go Stanton for the talent/ceiling if he's 100% healthy to start the year

 

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,896]

3 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

That's a fair point however Nelly will be 37 this year and at some point age/decline will become a factor for him. Stanton is just entering his prime and has shown top 5 overall player upside. I won't argue that Nelly is the safer choice and I wouldn't blame someone for drafting him, but I'd go Stanton for the talent/ceiling if he's 100% healthy to start the year

 

 

I would go with Cruz, definitely. 

[taobball 7,483]

5 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

That's a fair point however Nelly will be 37 this year and at some point age/decline will become a factor for him. Stanton is just entering his prime and has shown top 5 overall player upside. I won't argue that Nelly is the safer choice and I wouldn't blame someone for drafting him, but I'd go Stanton for the talent/ceiling if he's 100% healthy to start the year

 

 

Meh, I like to see decline to believe in decline. What was your take on David Ortiz last year? 

[96GOAT 197]

I'm all in on Stanton this year.  The kid's not even 30 yet.  40+ dongs.

[EmbargoLifted 902]

7 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Meh, I like to see decline to believe in decline. What was your take on David Ortiz last year? 

 

This is where we have some sharp disagreements. You can look at all the human beings who have played major league baseball over the 100+ year history and start to make pretty educated guesses as to when players progress/peak/decline on average.  This is a fundamental reason why Bryce Harper, at age 26, will likely earn the biggest contract in major american sports history. 

 

For every David Ortiz there's 99% of the rest of the player pool that progresses/peaks/declines very typically.

[brockpapersizer 11,402]

If instead of 40 you get  26 home runs with a 250 average from Cruz in his decline year, you'll be OK. Unless you think he just completely falls of a cliff.

[taobball 7,483]

Just now, EmbargoLifted said:

 

This is where we have some sharp disagreements. You can look at all the human beings who have played major league baseball over the 100+ year history and start to make pretty educated guesses as to when players progress/peak/decline on average.  This is a fundamental reason why Bryce Harper, at age 26, will likely earn the biggest contract in major american sports history. 

 

For every David Ortiz there's 99% of the rest of the player pool that progresses/peaks/declines very typically.

 

But I fundamentally disagree that aging is unidentifiable. Take VMart for instance. I still like VMart, don't get me wrong, but he's undeniably lost Contact% and increased K% over the last couple years. In contrast, players like Beltre and Cruz haven't showed such signs and although I can't be completely confident, at their current price I'm willing to buy to see if they produce signs of aging in the next year.

[EmbargoLifted 902]

13 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

But I fundamentally disagree that aging is unidentifiable. Take VMart for instance. I still like VMart, don't get me wrong, but he's undeniably lost Contact% and increased K% over the last couple years. In contrast, players like Beltre and Cruz haven't showed such signs and although I can't be completely confident, at their current price I'm willing to buy to see if they produce signs of aging in the next year.

 

But it isn't just performance that Nelson Cruz, and Adrian Beltre are fighting against father time ... it's also their bodies being able to sustain the rigors of a physically demanding/very long season. When guys start hitting those pre-40 years ... sudden decline (injury, performance, combination of both) can hit at any moment .. and you don't want to be the owner holding the bag when it inevitably happens. 

 

I'd much rather have: Pollock, Stanton, CarGo, JD Martinez, and Ian Desmond (they seem way more likely to return .85 cents on the dollar for where they are presently being drafted). Let someone else roll the dice on the guys who are fighting the steepest downward part of the age curve, and go with the more surer bet for production. 

 

Edited February 19, 2017 by EmbargoLifted

[kidtwentytwo 5,340]

Stanton usually goes a good 25-30 picks after Harper.  Taking him before Harper is a little foolish

 

Now he's an injury & batting average liability.  Still a $40 player in a $5 body.  Some guys just can't hold up

 

[EmbargoLifted 902]

I like Stanton at his current ADP. Even if he only plays in 120 games, you are still going to get a .265 ~30/100 season (+ waiver wire production during the games he's out).

 

He's also young enough where the possibility of bucking the trend of random DL stints and staying healthy is still a possibility. You do not want to be the person passing up on a player whose rates match those going in the first round who can be had in the 4th.

 

Edited February 19, 2017 by EmbargoLifted

[exm 248]

51 minutes ago, 96GOAT said:

I'm all in on Stanton this year.  The kid's not even 30 yet.  40+ dongs.

 

Sssshhh, let this be our secret.

[kidtwentytwo 5,340]

In his defense, some of his injuries were a little fluky.  Maybe he will take some stretching classes with Ichiro or something 

[taobball 7,483]

10 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

But it isn't just performance that Nelson Cruz, and Adrian Beltre are fighting against father time ... it's also their bodies being able to sustain the rigors of a physically demanding/very long season. When guys start hitting those pre-40 years ... sudden decline (injury, performance, combination of both) can hit at any moment .. and you don't want to be the owner holding the bag when it inevitably happens. 

 

I'd much rather have: Pollock, Stanton, CarGo, JD Martinez, and Ian Desmond (they seem way more likely to return .85 cents on the dollar for where they are presently being drafted). Let someone else roll the dice on the guys who are fighting the steepest downward part of the age curve, and go with the more surer bet for production. 

 

 

I don't disagree to some extent, but what's "sudden decline" to you? I think people lose the last years of players careers and let them go at extreme values consistently because there's this notion that you don't want to be the guy holding the hot potato. I'm typically willing to take that chance on a DH who hasn't showed signs of aging. I know people who drafted Fielder over Ortiz last year because of age. That's all I'm saying. I'm willing to buy into that type ESPECIALLY when they're a DH. I don't know when Cruz is gonna fall off but he has a PED history (which is not "fair" to say but I consider it to some extent a plus in avoiding bodily tolls), he played the field less than 50 times last season, and as the primary DH I don't consider his Age curve equivalent. I don't expect Cruz to just not be able to hold a bat anymore. What does he do? .280-30? I just don't think that there's a projection for Cruz of a "floor" that's any more reasonable than the idea that Stanton's going to just get hurt again. Cruz loves DH'n-- .300+ and 33 of his 43 homers. He's going to be 36 for most of the season. For a DH I don't consider that ancient. I'm just not taking lesser players over Cruz because his body could "collapse." I don't consider his injury risk vastly greater than other players, most notably Pollock, Stanton, and CarGo who you mention there. I have Desmond ranked higher but that has nothing to do with the idea that Cruz is going to collapse. 

[hailtoyourvictor 1,652]

12 hours ago, taobball said:

 

But I fundamentally disagree that aging is unidentifiable. Take VMart for instance. I still like VMart, don't get me wrong, but he's undeniably lost Contact% and increased K% over the last couple years. In contrast, players like Beltre and Cruz haven't showed such signs and although I can't be completely confident, at their current price I'm willing to buy to see if they produce signs of aging in the next year.

 

Victor Martinez had 5 straights years of batting over .300 going into 2015. In 2014, he hit .335 with a career low K% and a career high contact%. Going into 2015, the numbers you are citing wouldn't have identified aging / regression.
 

Edited February 19, 2017 by hailtoyourvictor

[taobball 7,483]

11 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Victor Martinez had 5 straights years of batting over .300 going into 2015. In 2014, he hit .335 with a career low K% and a career high contact%. Going into 2015, the numbers you are citing wouldn't have identified aging / regression.
 

 

And then what happened in 2016 

 

I'm not saying I won't draft VMart, I think he's still going too late for his talent in drafts, but I'm lower on him than I would be in a typical year because I consider things like O-Contact to be a skill that shows aging and V-Mart had gone from 88.1% to 81.5% to 75.1% the last three years. His contact in the zone has gone from 95.0% to 91.3% to 90.6%. His SwStr% has gone from 3.5% to 6.0% to 7.3%. His K% has gone from 6.6% to 10.7% to 14.8%. His K% and SwStr% were the highest of his career. 

 

I'm not saying the guys done or anything, but if I'm looking for a classic case of identifiable age deterioration, and comparing it to people who I don't believe have it, I don't know how it gets more obviously than with these V-Mart numbers.