brockpapersizer

Giancarlo Stanton 2017 Outlook

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after Betts, Trout, Blackmon give me Stanton


Wish he would ditch that stupid facemask though its awful

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2 hours ago, mevins31 said:

after Betts, Trout, Blackmon give me Stanton


Wish he would ditch that stupid facemask though its awful

Guess he doesn't want to eat a baseball again... plus it's got a G in it, dude.

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3 hours ago, mevins31 said:

after Betts, Trout, Blackmon give me Stanton


Wish he would ditch that stupid facemask though its awful

Explain to me how you can justify taking Stanton ahead of Cruz or Braun? 

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He's the Strasburg of hitters. I doubt we'll ever see that 50 hr monster season from him. I rather have JD Martinez.

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Stanton is top 10 in active career wRC+ and OPS. He's an elite hitter, not just a home run machine. I'll keep drafting him if the price is reasonable. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, dod959 said:

Stanton is top 10 in active career wRC+ and OPS. He's an elite hitter, not just a home run machine. I'll keep drafting him if the price is reasonable. 

 

 

 

Tough to talk "reasonable" when we're saying 2nd or 3rd round

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5 hours ago, midlip said:

Explain to me how you can justify taking Stanton ahead of Cruz or Braun? 

You aren't serious?

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Just now, mevins31 said:

You aren't serious?

 

Tbh I have a really tough time justifying Stanton over Cruz. I think it's justifiable for sure but I have a hard time with it. 

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39 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Tbh I have a really tough time justifying Stanton over Cruz. I think it's justifiable for sure but I have a hard time with it. 

 

On the surface, Cruz is without question the better player.  Their ADPs are neck and neck.  However, I think the smaller the league and more active the manager, the more it can be justified going for Stanton.  Everything in Stanton's profile (except health) supports more HRs, more runs, and more RBIs.  Look at his 2015 ISO.  Insane.  Way better than Cruz.  And Cruz was an injury prone player until he wasn't.  Cruz can only go down.  Stanton only up.  Very interesting debate though.

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1 minute ago, Magoo said:

 

On the surface, Cruz is without question the better player.  Their ADPs are neck and neck.  However, I think the smaller the league and more active the manager, the more it can be justified going for Stanton.  Everything in Stanton's profile (except health) supports more HRs, more runs, and more RBIs.  Look at his 2015 ISO.  Insane.  Way better than Cruz.  And Cruz was an injury prone player until he wasn't.  Cruz can only go down.  Stanton only up.  Very interesting debate though.

 

Pretty sure either could stay neutral. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Pretty sure either could stay neutral. 

 

Which one do you think is more likely?

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1 minute ago, Magoo said:

 

Which one do you think is more likely?

 

Not sure what you're asking exactly. Who is more likely to stay neutral, or are they more likely to go up down or neutral? 

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1 hour ago, mevins31 said:

You aren't serious?

 

Dead serious.

 

right now I have Cruz, Stanton, Braun, JDM  all very similarly ranked so I'd like to hear more about how Stanton rises to the top of this crew other than "he can hit 80 HRs " from the believers and "he will only play 70 games" from the naysayers 

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It boils down to how risk averse you want to be. 

 

Personally, with a full year of Dee hitting leadoff, I'll take Stanton's 1st round upside versus the Cruz/Braun floor.

 

 

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The best Giancarlo we've seen is the 2014 version which was very slightly better than the 2014 Nelson Cruz. But Giancarlo can be better, right? Right? So we have to try to objectively evaluate age/health/improving skills. I'm all ready tired. Just draft Nelson and save a few dollars. (Disclosure: I bought Giancarlo last season and paid $26 for him; he did not return that investment) Hurricane Giancarlo might strengthen to a category 5 or fade into a tropical depression. 

In short, I'd draft him if he's cheaper than Cruz but I'm not sure he's worth tremendously more than Bautista, Khris Davis, Chris Davis, and Mark Trumbo. I'd take him for more but I don't want to drop $10+ more. 

On the other hand, given the relative unpredictability of injury in general, maybe just toss out anyone who isn't currently injured and throw your money down like everyone will be healthy (Steamer 600 likes a Giancarlo bounce-back).

I'm no help. 

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If I'm on the clock staring at Stanton, Braun, JDM, Cruz, and even CarGo, it's going to be a tough decision for me.  If I'm on the short side of the wheel, I may just wait and take whomever comes back to me while filling another need first.

 

If I'm forced to choose, a lot is going to depend on who I already have on my team (and yeah it's probably only 1 or 2 guys, but that matters).  For example, if I took Trea Turner in the first, I'm probably going Cruz for the safety and the power -- knowing 30 HR are in the bag and 35-40 isn't at all unreasonable.  If I landed Arenado in the first, maybe I'm more willing to take Braun and the steals, knowing I'm getting nothing from Arenado.  If I already have Miggy from the first, maybe then I'll take Stanton and gamble on the upside, but I'd honestly still probably have him behind Cruz on the board.  To me, Cruz is just the better, safer asset, so as I'm typing this, I think I'm realizing he's ahead of Stanton for me personally.  And CarGo, for whatever reason, seems to be going farther down the board, so I'd hope to get him a round later and cash in on that ADP.

 

Stanton vs. Braun and JDM -- if you need speed (first two picks are Arenado/Cruz or Arenado/SP, let's say), then it's pretty easily Braun.  He's got 51 SBs over the past 3 seasons -- about 16 per which is what he got last year.

 

JDM vs. Stanton is an interesting debate for sure.  Stanton has more power, but I think that gap may be closer than people realize. JDM has 83 HRs over the past 3 years to Stanton's 91.  JDM is a .299 hitter over the past 3 seasons vs. Stanton's .266.  JDM has right at 1500 ABs over that stretch vs. Stanton's 1231, although a big chunk of JDM's missed time was due to an outfield collision, which is pretty fluky.  RBI are actually tied over the past 3 years, while Rs favor JDM.  Stanton's 27 this year, but it's not like Martinez is old at 29.

 

Stanton's ADP on Yahoo is 37.5 while Martinez is 43.3... that's pretty darn close, but I might personally prefer the safety of Martinez to the upside of Stanton.

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In a league where you need to be conservative early he's an easy skip. I'm operating under the impression he's going to have a few monster years. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

In a league where you need to be conservative early he's an easy skip. I'm operating under the impression he's going to have a few monster years. 

 

100% agreed. He's only 27 and prior to last year had back-to-back .950 OPS seasons. I completely understanding anyone being scared of him. He's not likely to score a ton of runs, his batting average is questionable, he won't steal many bases, and he's a very high injury risk. That said, I don't think anyone would be surprised if he bashes 50 bombs this year. In a standard re-draft, he's very likely a pass for me in the top 45-50. But, he does become a very enticing option after that. 

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1 hour ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

100% agreed. He's only 27 and prior to last year had back-to-back .950 OPS seasons. I completely understanding anyone being scared of him. He's not likely to score a ton of runs, his batting average is questionable, he won't steal many bases, and he's a very high injury risk. That said, I don't think anyone would be surprised if he bashes 50 bombs this year. In a standard re-draft, he's very likely a pass for me in the top 45-50. But, he does become a very enticing option after that. 

 

The problem is that your pricing there very often won't get him.  His ADP on Yahoo is 37... I'd take him after 50 as well... I just don't think he'll be there.

 

He feels much more likely to be an ADP riser than faller as we approach opening day.

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I mean, I knew Stanton was a beast, but damn...

 

 

Edited by Pitches Love Velocity

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Any list where Avisail Garcia is fourth on should be taken with a grain of salt.. 

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9 minutes ago, midlip said:

Any list where Avisail Garcia is fourth on should be taken with a grain of salt.. 

 

0VhvbuF.gif

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