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Giancarlo Stanton 2017 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, matdotmarshall said:

Bingo. Stanton was a wildly undervalued commodity on draft day because of the false narrative that he's "injury prone." Hard to make that argument in light of the injuries. When he starts hurting himself on dirt bikes we can talk.

 

Yep. And Bum, Donaldson, Miggy - "Non-injury prone" players are on the DL. Injuries are unpredictable, draft talent and hope for good health

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4 hits in his last 10 games.  Pathetic.

Edited by jdbob11

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2 minutes ago, jdbob11 said:

4 hits in his last 10 games.  Pathetic.

Yeah you should probably drop him.

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Just now, soxfan94 said:

Yeah you should probably drop him.

Seriously thinking about trading him.  Good thing about him is with that power he never loses any value.  His 3 and 4 week no HR binges he has every single year is starting to get old.  Hes been in the league for 7 years.  He should have figured out how to be consistent by now. 

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Just now, jdbob11 said:

Seriously thinking about trading him.  Good thing about him is with that power he never loses any value.  His 3 and 4 week no HR binges he has every single year is starting to get old.  Hes been in the league for 7 years.  He should have figured out how to be consistent by now. 

 

Even the best power hitters tend to hit home runs in bunches, so that doesn't worry me in and of itself.  Aaron Judge will surely have a week or two where he doesn't homer.  What's troublesome with Stanton is, as you said, that he has four hits in his last ten games.  That's bad.  Not so much that I'm overly worried just yet, but he seems to have gotten streakier over the past couple years.

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1 hour ago, jdbob11 said:

Seriously thinking about trading him.  Good thing about him is with that power he never loses any value.  His 3 and 4 week no HR binges he has every single year is starting to get old.  Hes been in the league for 7 years.  He should have figured out how to be consistent by now. 

He is who he is.  He's highly overrated.  Finally got a market correction somewhat this year.  But there's nothing special with his fantasy game.  When he makes contact it goes far.  Cool, so do many other guys in the league.

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10 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

He is who he is.  He's highly overrated.  Finally got a market correction somewhat this year.  But there's nothing special with his fantasy game.  When he makes contact it goes far.  Cool, so do many other guys in the league.

Yup. If you're selling I'd wait until another hot streak and someone is enamored by the 460 foot bomb they saw on Sportscenter, but he's a .265/35 HR hitter. Yay?

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12 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Yup. If you're selling I'd wait until another hot streak and someone is enamored by the 460 foot bomb they saw on Sportscenter, but he's a .265/35 HR hitter. Yay?

 

Not getting into this again but this is simply not true. 

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On 4/23/2017 at 0:45 PM, matdotmarshall said:

Bingo. Stanton was a wildly undervalued commodity on draft day because of the false narrative that he's "injury prone." Hard to make that argument in light of the injuries. When he starts hurting himself on dirt bikes we can talk.

False Narrative?

 

Fact: He's only played 125+ games in two of his previous 7 seasons.

 

 

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1 minute ago, GriffeySwag said:

False Narrative?

 

Fact: He's only played 125+ games in two of his previous 7 seasons.

Two separate issues. Having a lot of injuries doesn't mean that your style of play invites injury.

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2 minutes ago, matdotmarshall said:

Two separate issues. Having a lot of injuries doesn't mean that your style of play invites injury.

Having a lot of injuries = the definition of injury prone.

 

Justify it however you want.

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1 hour ago, lbjames6 said:

 

Not getting into this again but this is simply not true. 

Huh. Well his 162 game average is .265/41. He's never played more than 150 games. Ever. 

You wanna call it .265/37? Ok, maybe. But you don't have to "get into it." The statistics say this is unequivocally true. 

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22 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Huh. Well his 162 game average is .265/41. He's never played more than 150 games. Ever. 

You wanna call it .265/37? Ok, maybe. But you don't have to "get into it." The statistics say this is unequivocally true. 

A lot of people still hold out false hope of "upside", but truth is since getting hit by pitch in the face he just hasn't been the same guy.  Frail, prone to very deep, long slumps.  His trajectory has been going down for awhile.  I would be surprised if it all of sudden goes back up again.  Solid player, elite power tool, but the false hope in fantasy community of this guy being a pillar likely needs to subside.

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1 hour ago, GriffeySwag said:

Having a lot of injuries = the definition of injury prone.

Your impressive confidence in that definition notwithstanding, "prone" has a separate, substantive meaning, particularly when we're talking about something like a draft, which is an exercise in prediction. "Injury" is an outcome, "prone" is predictive of an outcome.  I will fall ten times if you trip me ten times. That doesn't mean I'm prone to falling. It means I fell, which may seem semantical unless we're taking bets on whether I can then climb a flight of stairs.

This is Stanton's injury history and the number of days lost each time:

2011 - 11 games with R hammy/quad strain

2012 - 39 games, loose bodies removed from R knee/abdominal strain

2013 - 44 games w R hammy strain/L shoulder soreness

2014 - 17 games following HBP in face

2015 - 53 games with broken hamate
2016 - 21 games with "severe" groin strain (was supposed to be out 6 weeks, returned in 3)

There's definitely a lot of DL time there (185 missed games total or about 19% of an average season for the past six years), but digging deeper:

- 70 of those games (38 percent) were essentially freak injuries - caused either by an external event (a HBP to the face) or to something that could not have been predicted by his injury history (broken hamate) and are unlikely to predict future injuries themselves.
 

- Of the remainder, the biggest red flag are three years (11-13, just over 50% of his missed games) where he chiefly dealt with right leg injuries. Nevertheless, in those three seasons his lowest wRC+ was 137. If the groin injury was unrelated (it sounded that way to me but maybe someone has more info and can shed light on whether the hammy/quad and the groin were at all linked) then we're entering a fourth straight year without his leg giving him issues and I'd feel confident betting on a fifth and sixth.

It's fairly straightforward to acknowledge that Stanton has sustained, past tense, several injuries, but he's 27 and has played at an elite level in spite of his time on the DL and I feel far more confident predicting that he'll hit homers than I do predicting any particular injury. It would not be unusual, strictly speaking, for him to hit the DL this year but I also don't believe with any certainty that he will hit the DL, because his recent injury history doesn't predict a particular Achilles' heel - so far he's been about as likely to miss a game because of his groin as he has been because of a baseball in his face, and not all that likely to deal with the one injury that has actually been remotely repetitive.

All of that is secondary, though, to the core of my point, which was that Stanton was grossly underpriced on draft day. It's fair to price any missed play into Stanton's ADP irrespective of whether it's bad luck or bad physiology. It's tarnish. But Stanton got priced into the 4th round in my league, going off the board after guys like Starling Marte (2nd round, back, ankle, hand), Ryan Braun (3rd round, back, arm, nerve), Miguel Cabrera (2nd round, groin, calf, shoulder), and George Springer (3rd round, body, basically). Because he was "injury prone." Those guys were too, by the same measures - but it didn't hurt their draft price because you don't hear a lot of pundits and fans parroting a label. That ignores guys like Josh Donaldson, Trea Turner, Syndergaard, and Bumgarner, all of whom went ahead of him and have now all spent time on the DL despite not being "prone" to it. Bumgarner in particular invited it, which is why I barbed him a bit.


If I were to 

Quote

Justify it however you want

I would probably just say that people who win their drafts are usually people who take risks predicting that guys are undervalued or overvalued because the "facts" of their past seasons has been overblown, misinterpreted, or gone unnoticed. And for purposes of predicting Stanton's 2017, yes, the "injury-prone" narrative was false in practical terms or at least weighted far too heavily in his price, even if it turns out to have been truly predictive. Split hairs as we may over my specific phrasing, or whether or not Stanton still qualifies as an injury risk, so far the risk takers have been rewarded. If he does hit the DL, we still got him at a discount - but right now the facts you're citing haven't had much bearing on how my season is unfolding.

Edited by matdotmarshall

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3 minutes ago, paintingtheblack said:

2-2 2hr 4 rbi first 2 abs today

 

I like it

 

Meh...he's nothing special. Probably will only hit 25 HR the rest of the year right? B)

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19 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

 

Meh...he's nothing special. Probably will only hit 25 HR the rest of the year right? B)

Probably, although we've seen twice in his career that he could hit a couple more than that. ?

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Not to take anything away from the dongs, but after watching whatever breaking ball "Wilk" tried to throw, it makes me want to go dust off my wheel and try to make a comeback in baseball.  I don't think I've seen a worse breaking ball since Jason Hawksworth hit my cement mixer about 475 feet back in high school.  

Edited by Cmilne23

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5 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Not to take anything away from the dongs, but after watching whatever breaking ball "Wilk" tried to throw, it makes me want to go dust off my wheel and try to make a comeback in baseball.  I don't think I've seen a worse breaking ball since Jason Hawksworth hit my cement mixer about 475 feet back in high school.  

 

Yep, nice stat padding opportunity taken advantage of by Giancarlo. The guy he was facing has a 6 ERA in AAA, simply shouldn't be anywhere near an MLB diamond.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cmilne23 said:

Not to take anything away from the dongs, but after watching whatever breaking ball "Wilk" tried to throw, it makes me want to go dust off my wheel and try to make a comeback in baseball.  I don't think I've seen a worse breaking ball since Jason Hawksworth hit my cement mixer about 475 feet back in high school.  

 

This argument doesn't hold a lot of water for me. Good players punish bad pitches. Peek into the pitch-by-pitch of any top player and you'll see a lot of bad breaking balls leaving the yard. Still counts the same on the back of the baseball card.

Edited by amcsoldier

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Just now, amcsoldier said:

 

This argument doesn't hold a lot of water for me. Good players punish bad pitches. Peak into the pitch-by-pitch of any top player and you'll see a lot of bad breaking balls leaving the yard. Still counts the same on the back of the baseball card.

Oh I agree completely.  Just saying I'm not going to get fluffy and convince myself that I'm getting some monster year from Stanton because he took a guy who will be quoting me insurance in a year or 2 deep twice.  If I get .260 - 35 - 90 out of Stanton this year I'll be happy.

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Just thought I'd post this because I love Giancarlo almost as much as Grey

 

Quote

Giancarlo Stanton – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs and his 9th and 10th homers.  Someone on Saturday commented to DanPants that Giancarlo is just never going to be ‘that guy.’  That’s a solid point, Giancarlo is only on pace for 50 HRs.  He’s only hit a home run around every fourteen at-bats in his career.  You know, 7th in the history of the major leagues.  What a bum!  You come at Giancarlo and you get The Stache.

 

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1 hour ago, lbjames6 said:

Just thought I'd post this because I love Giancarlo almost as much as Grey

 

 

We all know what he can be on pace for. He's just never hit 40 HR in 7 seasons. Could this be it? Sure. We all know what kind of power he has when he connects. But it'll take avoiding major injury and avoiding prolonged suckage. As someone who acquired him last week I'm here hoping for the best. Just trying to be realistic. 

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2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

We all know what he can be on pace for. He's just never hit 40 HR in 7 seasons. Could this be it? Sure. We all know what kind of power he has when he connects. But it'll take avoiding major injury and avoiding prolonged suckage. As someone who acquired him last week I'm here hoping for the best. Just trying to be realistic. 

i love that ozuna and yelich are hitting in front of him now.  but i dont know if thats good for his protection

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

We all know what he can be on pace for. He's just never hit 40 HR in 7 seasons. Could this be it? Sure. We all know what kind of power he has when he connects. But it'll take avoiding major injury and avoiding prolonged suckage. As someone who acquired him last week I'm here hoping for the best. Just trying to be realistic. 

 

I hear you. I think we know he has the ability, it's just a matter of when it will all come together. The dude is only 27 and he's got this kind of pop. His best years are still ahead of him...I'm betting on it starting this year. I got lucky with Anthony Davis this past basketball season, and it was his first injury free season. Hoping for some of that mojo with Stanton this year ;)

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