parrothead

Jean Segura 2017 Outlook

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Similar to Villar (although had more success coming into 16) took a major step forward.  Career best in every category except steals, where he still was over 30, but put up elite numbers in batting average and runs while hitting over 20HR and stealing 33. 

 

He was a bit polarizing a few years back when he had that ridiculous HR stretch, I was not a buyer then, but this all around season has me more excited about him now than I was then. 

 

What are your thoughts on I dream of Jean?  

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Mentioned a lot in last year's thread, but I really do think this is closer to the real thing than the previous few years. The man has been through a lot between injuries and family stuff, makes him hard to project. 

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SS is pretty deep, but I can see him being a top 10SS

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On 10/21/2016 at 7:33 PM, exm said:

SS is pretty deep, but I can see him being a top 10SS

 

He ranked the second best shortstop in my league.  Eduardo Nunez and Andrus round out the top 10 SS so that's one ice cold take.

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8 minutes ago, Skoodog said:

 

He ranked the second best shortstop in my league.  Eduardo Nunez and Andrus round out the top 10 SS so that's one ice cold take.

 

That's 2016. Now we're talking 2017. There's a lot of young SS talent that will take a step forward in 2017. I'm not sure if Segura can sustain his numbers. He'll be good (top10 IMO) but I can't see him cracking the top 5 and/or repeat his 2016 performance.

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I don't think anyone has mentioned it yet, but Chip Hale being fired could hurt his value. Goldy had 30+ SBs this season. There's a chance they hire a more conservative manager which could hurt his value. 

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On 10/22/2016 at 6:51 PM, jwblue said:

He should live up to his draft position.  Playing in AZ is always a huge plus.

AZ is Coors 2.0 . He's improved as a hitter but the power increase was a bit product of Chase I'd bet. Still wouldn't bank on 20 again but he could settle in as a 15 a year guy there.

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How much does his value take a hit now that he's with the M's, if at all?  Obviously it will reduce the power, but wondering how the move may impact him running.

Edited by BigPapi44

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19 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

How much does his value take a hit now that he's with the M's, if at all?  Obviously it will reduce the power, but wondering how the move may impact him running.

Not sure how it will impact the steals, the Mariners haven't really had a SB guy since Ichiro to see how they handle them, and yeah it's bad for his power, but it's very good for his R/RBI (none of Cruz/Cano/Seager are quite on Goldie's level, but having three great hitters behind him is better than one, and RBI will increase just by not hitting right behind the pitcher anymore)

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27 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Not sure how it will impact the steals, the Mariners haven't really had a SB guy since Ichiro to see how they handle them, and yeah it's bad for his power, but it's very good for his R/RBI (none of Cruz/Cano/Seager are quite on Goldie's level, but having three great hitters behind him is better than one, and RBI will increase just by not hitting right behind the pitcher anymore)

 

Leonys was the closest thing to a steals guy in Scott Servais' first year as a manager anywhere and he stole 24. They let Nori Aoki continue to try seemingly with 7 SB and 9 CS. Seems like he's willing to send his guys. I'd call that a wash.

 

I agree with you mostly in RBI, but with the potential for fewer XBH away from the desert air I think that's closer to a wash then an advantage. Runs though I'm right there with you. Great guys to hit in front of.

 

I do think this is a net loss for his value though. People think too much about power as @BigPapi44 said, but to me, especially in terms of parks like Coors and Chase, the BABIP of the park is just as big of a factor. I keep referencing the Desert Air, and it's kinda a joke, but really it's not. That air is what makes the park so hitter friendly, and that effects every ball in play, not just the ones that end up going over the wall. Whatever BA was being projected before I think needs to be dropped a few points by every individual.

 

So if I were looking at 5x5 I'd say:
Even in SB and RBI

Plus in R

Minus in BA and HR

 

and I actually think all three of those changing metrics (R, BA, and HR) are about equivalent in their effect on a per metric basis, so with two negatives and one positive, I give it a slight overall negative, but if you were a Segura believer (Segurite?) than I wouldn't really change my tune too much. If you were a doubter though, this probably is enough of an excuse to take him off your board where he'll realistically be drafted. 

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Leonys was the closest thing to a steals guy in Scott Servais' first year as a manager anywhere and he stole 24. They let Nori Aoki continue to try seemingly with 7 SB and 9 CS. Seems like he's willing to send his guys. I'd call that a wash.

 

I agree with you mostly in RBI, but with the potential for fewer XBH away from the desert air I think that's closer to a wash then an advantage. Runs though I'm right there with you. Great guys to hit in front of.

 

I do think this is a net loss for his value though. People think too much about power as @BigPapi44 said, but to me, especially in terms of parks like Coors and Chase, the BABIP of the park is just as big of a factor. I keep referencing the Desert Air, and it's kinda a joke, but really it's not. That air is what makes the park so hitter friendly, and that effects every ball in play, not just the ones that end up going over the wall. Whatever BA was being projected before I think needs to be dropped a few points by every individual.

 

So if I were looking at 5x5 I'd say:
Even in SB and RBI

Plus in R

Minus in BA and HR

 

and I actually think all three of those changing metrics (R, BA, and HR) are about equivalent in their effect on a per metric basis, so with two negatives and one positive, I give it a slight overall negative, but if you were a Segura believer (Segurite?) than I wouldn't really change my tune too much. If you were a doubter though, this probably is enough of an excuse to take him off your board where he'll realistically be drafted. 

I think you're underestimating the negative impact being an NL leadoff guy has on RBI, but other than that I think you're spot on

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1 minute ago, mysonx3 said:

I think you're underestimating the negative impact being an NL leadoff guy has on RBI, but other than that I think you're spot on

 

Maybe, but Segura had 41 Doubles last year after having 50 over the course of three years in Miller. I expect that number to take the sharpest hit, and it's gonna make driving in runners quite a bit harder. I expect his SLG to drop the most for people who play in those leagues. 

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I have a hard time seeing him build UP from a 102 Run season if he's losing batting average and HR(aka the automatic tally to a run total) Better lineup just means is more a wash than legit gain. Not that its a bad thing..but 100 Run season is pretty high standard to start with

 

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

I have a hard time seeing him build UP from a 102 Run season if he's losing batting average and HR(aka the automatic tally to a run total) Better lineup just means is more a wash than legit gain. Not that its a bad thing..but 100 Run season is pretty high standard to start with

 

 

Yeah, I guess I was talking more from a projection stand point. Like if you were PROJECTING 100 then I would still add, but I rarely project 100 R seasons for guy slike Segura so I'm not saying I expect him to have more than 102 Runs, I'm saying I'm suggesting that whatever every individuals "expected" run total was for Segura, I would not increase it by a few. 

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14 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Maybe, but Segura had 41 Doubles last year after having 50 over the course of three years in Miller. I expect that number to take the sharpest hit, and it's gonna make driving in runners quite a bit harder. I expect his SLG to drop the most for people who play in those leagues. 

Do we have any idea though about how he obtained the doubles?  I mean if you are equating a smaller park with him driving to the alleys, as opposed to down the line, etc., I'm not sure on the numbers really going down.  He's going to a bigger park, larger field, and can use his legs. That may be a wash too.

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1 minute ago, BigPapi44 said:

Do we have any idea though about how he obtained the doubles?  I mean if you are equating a smaller park with him driving to the alleys, as opposed to down the line, etc., I'm not sure on the numbers really going down.  He's going to a bigger park, larger field, and can use his legs. That may be a wash too.

Home road splits were not that extreme. He had 20 doubles both home and round.. 12 HR at chase.. 8 everywhere else..  300 BA both Home and Road.

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4 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

Do we have any idea though about how he obtained the doubles?  I mean if you are equating a smaller park with him driving to the alleys, as opposed to down the line, etc., I'm not sure on the numbers really going down.  He's going to a bigger park, larger field, and can use his legs. That may be a wash too.

 

Well as slaty pointed out, his splits were even so maybe it's nothing. For me though in general, I'd expect more doubles and more sailing on the ball in Arizona because of just the natural environment of Arizona, similar but to a lite extent to Coors. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Well as slaty pointed out, his splits were even so maybe it's nothing. For me though in general, I'd expect more doubles and more sailing on the ball in Arizona because of just the natural environment of Arizona, similar but to a lite extent to Coors. 

 

Agreed, I think it's almost always a good idea to put more weight into park factors than into single-season home/road splits, especially when the park factor difference is as extreme as Chase --> Safeco. 

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4 minutes ago, Rabbit Maranville said:

 

Agreed, I think it's almost always a good idea to put more weight into park factors than into single-season home/road splits, especially when the park factor difference is as extreme as Chase --> Safeco. 

The problem with Segua is we only have this 1 really good year to go off of. We don't know what his true baselines are and "regress" for park factors.. Its a lot of a guessing game here on a 1 year sample.  Home/Road just splits it in half and could be noise.. or he somehow keeps maturing as a hitter into his prime

 

Or the year was the true career year and he was bound to regress hard regardless of where he played.

Edited by Slatykamora

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2 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

The problem with Segua is we only have this 1 really good year to go off of. We don't know what his true baselines are and "regress" for park factors.. Its a lot of a guessing game here on a 1 year sample.  Home/Road just splits it in half and could be noise.. or he somehow keeps maturing as a hitter into his prime

 

Or the year was the true career year and he was bound to regress hard regardless of where he played.

Look at his numbers in 2013 before his son died. Hit .325 in the first half, then his son died and he hit .240. Gotta think that effected him in an absolutely enormous way and maybe last year he figured out how to focus on Baseball again.

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22 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

I have a hard time seeing him build UP from a 102 Run season if he's losing batting average and HR(aka the automatic tally to a run total) Better lineup just means is more a wash than legit gain. Not that its a bad thing..but 100 Run season is pretty high standard to start with

 

Can't speak for @taobball, but I was speaking in terms of 2017 Segura on the D-backs projections vs 2017 on the Mariners, not 2017 vs 2016

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Just now, mysonx3 said:

Can't speak for @taobball, but I was speaking in terms of 2017 Segura on the D-backs projections vs 2017 on the Mariners, not 2017 vs 2016

Depends how much the BA and HR regress vs League/Lineup difference. I personally think its closer to a wash..

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Just now, Slatykamora said:

Depends how much the BA and HR regress vs League/Lineup difference. I personally think its closer to a wash..

To clarify: 2017 Segura on ARI vs 2017 Segura on SEA has nothing to do with regression, because they both will face that just the same.

I think it's a wash in that it hurts his AVG and HR but helps his run production. Wash on SB

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I play in a league with a projections shark. He was really high on Segura coming into the season-- he said he had Segura at close to $20 and he picked him up for $5 in the auction. I ended up buying at $30 at the end of August, and actually got value in September, but that's enough CSB.The point: This guy's model saw Segura's 2014-2015 as a complete fluke and bad-luck-driven.

 

Segura's batted ball and speed profile is almost ideal for running a consistently high BABIP, and the .316 that Steamer is projecting for 2017 might be a bit too low. The top BABIP guys like Marte and Trout will project for about .360, to give an idea of an upper bound. 

 

Basically, Segura's 2016 breakout may not actually have been a talent breakout, but rather his luck finally turning around.

 

And that's without factoring in losing a kid. 

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