parrothead

Jean Segura 2017 Outlook

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Depends how much the BA and HR regress vs League/Lineup difference. I personally think its closer to a wash..

 

I definitely don't If the argument is that BA is a wash. If you don't reduce BA from Chase to Safeco in terms of projections I think you're massively underrating the effect Chase can have in terms of BABIP.

Edited by taobball

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Look at his numbers in 2013 before his son died. Hit .325 in the first half, then his son died and he hit .240. Gotta think that effected him in an absolutely enormous way and maybe last year he figured out how to focus on Baseball again.

I think the number 1 variable question is Power for him more than Batting average. Going into his career we know he was a high contact rate guy with plus speed and level approach.. It was easy to see higher batting average Potential if he could overcome his lumps as young evolving player..

 

He had 66 XBH last year...20 over the fence.. That was a huge jump and its only 1 year.. We've seen 1 year power spike before..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Slatykamora said:

He had 66 XBH last year...20 over the fence.. That was a huge jump and its only 1 year.. We've seen 1 year power spike before..

 

That's a good point. Also concerning: Segura was far from the only player to see that 2016 power spike. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ruspin Ruxin said:

DND

I don't understand the point of posts like this. What information does it add? That some random guy on the internet thinks he's overrated? How is that useful?

If you think he's a DND, explain why. What makes you think he'll underperform his ADP?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Look at his numbers in 2013 before his son died. Hit .325 in the first half, then his son died and he hit .240. Gotta think that effected him in an absolutely enormous way and maybe last year he figured out how to focus on Baseball again.

 

"Revisionism" at its best, his son died July 12th 2014.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

I don't understand the point of posts like this. What information does it add? That some random guy on the internet thinks he's overrated? How is that useful?

If you think he's a DND, explain why. What makes you think he'll underperform his ADP?

Mariners

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/24/2016 at 11:58 AM, pan55 said:

Does this trade make Brandon Drury the starting 2B for Arizona? 

 

I already mentioned here or on the trade thread that if Marte becomes the D-Backs SS then Chris Owings will probably move over to 2nd.  Best outcome for fantasy baseball (hitting) is Marte gets flipped or sent down to AAA to work on his hitting and Drury finds a home at 2nd but this is Arizona and they rarely make the right moves with younger players.  Drury could remain a nomad on the team again which would be too bad.

Both Owings and Drury showed some nice upside in 2016.  Both should be starters but somehow I didn't get the D-Backs managerial opening so I'm not holding my breath.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

about the various park effects - the explanation i saw last year, and still believe, was that over last winter segura adjusted his hand position to be lower and more direct to the ball. supposedly allowed him to make a lot of harder contact. the past couple years when he was terrible he never had a strikeout problem, he just clunked a lot of easy ground balls. this year he went back to line drives everywhere. certainly arizona helped him a bit but it doesn't make *that* much of a difference, to where one of the worst hitters in the league can go there and suddenly be one of the best. hell, miller park is a good hitter's park too. 

 

so seattle's not awesome, but i don't think he'll turn back into the same pumpkin he was before he went to arizona. i mean, anyone can slump. but imo there were concrete reasons he suddenly got better and the park was only one smallish factor.

 

 

Edited by wily mo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Horizontal Third of plate 2015/2016 SLG%
Inner third: .323 / .654
Middle third: .446/ .689
Outer third: .311 / .472

Obviously it went up pretty dramatically across the board (which you would expect to see with a guy enjoying that kind of power spike, but man he more than doubled his slugging% on inside pitches. He particularly upped his game on pitches up and in. In the portion of the zone where the upper third and inner third intersect, his SLG went from .560 to 1.280

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he retooled his swing. Don't have specifics but they touched on it in a recent mlb network show. I'll buy at a reasonable price. Not expecting the 20/30 season we just witnessed but leading off in front of Cano, Cruz, and Seager isn't exactly a death sentence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he splits the difference between his terrible seasons and the mini and last years breakout.

 

I believe that he did adjust his swing which will help his hard hit contact and LD %, but his slugging, ISO and HR will come down. I'd give him 12 dingers max.

 

But agree with others I wouldn't invest to high of a pick, he is inconsistent and I always hate to take guys like this as my primary spot at the position. He is my plan b but if he works out I have a solid trade chip.

Edited by roadawg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would be open to drafting him, but I would not reach for him.  

 

I think he might actually have a little value since most feel there will be a big drop off in production with the move from Chase to Safeco.

Edited by jwblue

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy was so fun to have on my team last year. I especially loved how RW hated on him all year. He goes 5 for 5 one game and RW be like, he's garbage and faced garbage pitchers blah blah blah.  Think he can repeat last year's numbers and should be in line for more runs being in front of great players. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On Thursday, December 22, 2016 at 2:20 AM, wily mo said:

about the various park effects - the explanation i saw last year, and still believe, was that over last winter segura adjusted his hand position to be lower and more direct to the ball. supposedly allowed him to make a lot of harder contact. the past couple years when he was terrible he never had a strikeout problem, he just clunked a lot of easy ground balls. this year he went back to line drives everywhere. certainly arizona helped him a bit but it doesn't make *that* much of a difference, to where one of the worst hitters in the league can go there and suddenly be one of the best. hell, miller park is a good hitter's park too. 

 

so seattle's not awesome, but i don't think he'll turn back into the same pumpkin he was before he went to arizona. i mean, anyone can slump. but imo there were concrete reasons he suddenly got better and the park was only one smallish factor.

 

 

 

He 100% changed his hand positioning to unlock his swing last year.   It was evident from day one.  But Chase played crazy last year,  that helped as well. 

 

Had he stayed in Arizona I would have expected very slight regression from last year's numbers.  But going from Arizona to Seattle plus adding in a league change makes me ding him even harder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, aifan27 said:

 

Nice article.  Where do you guys see Segura slotting in the lineup?

He will likely lead off vs LHP and then possibly hit 2nd vs RHP.  I think the Mariners want someone like Dyson to cease the lead off position vs RHP to infuse the top of that lineup with speed.  There's going to be some regression from last year for Jean, but Safeco did play pretty hitter friendly last year.  Mariners lineup is going to be really good this year (God did I really just say that) they have a great mixture of speed and pop in that lineup now.  I'd wager they'll be top 10 in runs (and flirt with top 5) which should mean counting stat wise Jean shouldn't have too big of a drop off.

Edited by Cmilne23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, aifan27 said:

 

Nice article.  Where do you guys see Segura slotting in the lineup?

 

Dipoto & the coach want Dyson leadoff, Segura 2nd

Edit: vs RHP like Cmilne^ said as I was typing

 

The thing about Segura and the hand position change, nobody noticed (or wrote about it) on this forum until he went nuclear week 1. INCLUDING ME. Wilymo posted the articles from gammonsball & Ken Rosenthal week 2-3 of the season in Segura 2016 thread. Unacceptable.

 

This forum is better than that. We need to watch ST ABs more closely. Did Jason Heyward make significant swing changes that let him turn on heat better? These are the questions. Segura fixed himself, wonderful. Now onto the next fixer-upper with an ADPs in the 200s (Segura's ADP last year was ~225-250).

Edited by bbythepier

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, aifan27 said:

 

Nice article.  Where do you guys see Segura slotting in the lineup?

Definitely will be at 1 and 2 both for good chunks. As Cmilne pointed out, they seem to want Dyson to lead off against RHP, so Segura would bat 2nd then (probably ideal fantasy-wise), but I doubt Dyson leads off against LHP and I'm not sure who else would unless Heredia is really hitting good (and he's not even a lock to make the team) so probably Segura against LHP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...