parrothead

Jean Segura 2017 Outlook

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Yeah yeah.  "Mild" they report,  same as Turner. 

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It's only 10 days...just sit him...no use risking putting him out there and making it worse.

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Are we expecting him back tomorrow?  Any locals in the know?

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30 minutes ago, Sven said:

Are we expecting him back tomorrow?  Any locals in the know?

 

M's just optioned Mike Freeman to AAA, so looks like Segura will be activated tomorrow. 

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Doesn't appear at least for the moment that the trade to Seattle is going to drastically affect his production. Good to see him picking up where he left off.

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Plz stay healthy. Dude is an amazing hitter.

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Not a single 0fer all month. 14 game hit streak.

Who says they don't like the 10 day DL? all he needed was a little breather.

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15 minutes ago, borindia said:

11 games and counting without a SB...

 

Caught 4 times during that span and the weird thing is 3 of those 4 he was initially called safe only 2 have the call overturned all 3 times..

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From Jeff Zimmerman's FanGraphs article on Home-To-First Times:

  • Jean Segura’s times have increased from elite status to almost league average. While I could see him continue to steal bases, he may need to be more selective. So far this season he is just 5 for 8 in attempts (62.5% success rate). With a quarter of the season done, he is on pace for only 20 steals which I think will be a disappointment for his owners.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2017-home-to-first-times/

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4 hours ago, absknicks said:

From Jeff Zimmerman's FanGraphs article on Home-To-First Times:

  • Jean Segura’s times have increased from elite status to almost league average. While I could see him continue to steal bases, he may need to be more selective. So far this season he is just 5 for 8 in attempts (62.5% success rate). With a quarter of the season done, he is on pace for only 20 steals which I think will be a disappointment for his owners.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2017-home-to-first-times/

 

Well he did also have his DL-stint for hamstring tightness, so that likely can help explain any kind of slowdown.  I can also attest to his CS against the Jays the other day was just a great throw from Maile.  Segura was initially called safe too, and got overturned on review.  Maile can't hit at all, but his arm behind the plate has been dead accurate.

 

On a higher level I also question the merits of that home-to-first data.  I don't know the answer to this, but how long does it take to stabilize or give accurate results?  The author is quick to point out where the data correlates to what he's trying to show (Escobar with no SB), but fails to point out where it doesn't.  He's got Goldschmidt down at a +0.20 increase and up to a 4.44 time, with league average supposedly at 4.30, but Goldy has 9 SB already to 2 CS.  Can't argue with those results for a guy that's supposedly only slightly faster home-to-first than a catcher.

 

If I had to put in a guess, I'd say it depends a lot on what type of hitter you are.  Slappy contact guys like Dee Gordon and Hamilton are probably running full-out all the way down the baseline because they hit another GB or weak single.  Goldy or say Nelson Cruz probably aren't running full-out to 1st that often because they either crushed a multi-base hit, or they hit a FB or a hard hit straight at an infielder.  I know you're always 'supposed' to run out the play, but I'm sure you're not busting it the same when you either know you're out or you know it's not going to be a close play at 1st.

 

Interesting info / read though.

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9 hours ago, chud12 said:

 

Caught 4 times during that span and the weird thing is 3 of those 4 he was initially called safe only 2 have the call overturned all 3 times..

 

I can remember watching two of them off the top of my head. The one where he ran against Maille the other day was a great jump but a perfect throw + tag was enough to get the call overturned.

 

Anyways, just a small sample size, his success rate will normalize soon.

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Caught stealing for yet the 5th time in a row I think, I am now confused how that happens..

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2 minutes ago, chud12 said:

Caught stealing for yet the 5th time in a row I think, I am now confused how that happens..

 

Didn't see the jump, but the throw was right there

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1 hour ago, chud12 said:

Caught stealing for yet the 5th time in a row I think, I am now confused how that happens..

It's called being a Seattle Mariners. No matter how hard the M's try to get speed whoever they get has a career worst SB %. See Aoki last year.

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He had a hamstring injury and it's affecting his ability on the base paths. Maybe that isn't the reason but that's a linear, logical guess so I'm going with it.

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just acquired this guy via trade.  and im loving him.  hit a homer yesterday too.

 

why is there so little buzz on this guy.

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2 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

just acquired this guy via trade.  and im loving him.  hit a homer yesterday too.

 

why is there so little buzz on this guy.

 

Because he is a stud and not much has to be said.

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7 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

Because he is a stud and not much has to be said.

 

all that regression to the mean and safeco park effect doesn't seem to be bothering him all that much

 

 

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3 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

all that regression to the mean and safeco park effect doesn't seem to be bothering him all that much

 

 

 

Yeah, I didn't doubt those changes he made to his swing would still translate when he was traded to the Mariners. With that being said, I really like this guy but was able to flip him for Manny Machado recently. I wish I could have them both, but I can't miss the oportunity at a 40 homer guy at SS. Cool Story Bro, I know.

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Where does he log in keeper SS ranks. Seems like most were hesitant to fully buy in last years resurgence but now it's seeming like he's a legit top 5-6 SS. Is he in the same tier as Seager, Correa, Turner, Lindor, Bogaerts? 

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