Fuzzy_Slippers

Trea Turner 2017 Outlook

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What are your predictions for next season?  Will he steal 60 bags? Will he hit 15-20 homers? Will he hit near .300? Let's see who ends up being the closest.

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I think he will be 60+ on stolen bases, probably 75+ on ribbies since he will most likely bat at the top of the order for most of the year. Gauging his average is tricky, hard to predict him to repeat as a .340 hitter at this point in his career, (although I wouldn't be surprised) but his .388 babip kind of leads me to believe he can hit around .320.

I think Dusty is going to kick the tires on this guy and see what he can do, wouldn't be shocked to see him eligible at multiple positions in 2017.

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On 10/27/2016 at 7:38 PM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

What are your predictions for next season?  Will he steal 60 bags? Will he hit 15-20 homers? Will he hit near .300? Let's see who ends up being the closest.

He's a special talent, that's for sure. I think he hits .300+ with 40SB/15HR... But honestly, it's hard to tell. I didn't think he had any power coming into the league, but he does... and it wasn't fluky HRs. I also didn't think he was that fast, but holy smokes was he quick. 

 

Final line something similar to what Villar put up would be reasonable, I think.

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.300 15/50. Golddust in today's steals deprived world.

 

Would rarely ever predict a .300AVG from a sophmore but man the kid can rake. Uses the whole field and just barrels everything up creating a ton of liners.

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I'm really excited for a full season of Trea in my dynasty league. Snagged him in the minor league draft before last season and was eventually rewarded with a huge first stint in the MLB. Kid looks like he can do it all. My biggest question isn't on his performance, but rather where he plays. Groomed as a SS/infielder, but ended up getting most of his time in the OF. Certainly not a bad problem and could become even more valuable by getting eligibility at multiple positions, just not sure where to plan to use him

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I'm 100% in on Turner. I'd take him early 2nd round with confidence. I genuinely believe he will be a top 5 fantasy player in 2017. I tried flipping Moncada + Kluber for Trea in a keeper but was rejected, if that speaks to his value. 

 

Disclaimer: I gushed similarly about Correa before last season.

 

his value takes a slight dip in OBP leagues, but I'll predict:

.308-113-17-74-57

so essentially Altuve with more speed

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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Wow I was only offered Moncada for Trea stright up last year.  Also two other package deal offers with one involving deGrom and the other Strasberg as center pieces as well.  But Moncada plus Kluber?  Man, Trea's value is through the roof right now.  Yeah he could well go in the second round this season in some redraft leagues.  He goes in now as the Mookie Lite guy giving you more steals and less homers but still in the ball park.  And if that surprise power continues ... wow again.

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I was in love with Trea going next year. The statement "Altuve with more speed" literally just gives me goosebumps.

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21 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Wow I was only offered Moncada for Trea stright up last year.  Also two other package deal offers with one involving deGrom and the other Strasberg as center pieces as well.  But Moncada plus Kluber?  Man, Trea's value is through the roof right now.  Yeah he could well go in the second round this season in some redraft leagues.  He goes in now as the Mookie Lite guy giving you more steals and less homers but still in the ball park.  And if that surprise power continues ... wow again.

Do you have Turner in a keeper? I've got Kluber and Bogaerts as 4th round keeper options, so I've got to let one of them go or else it's squandered value. Hence that overpay for him.

I also tried Arenado + Kluber for Bryant and got shut down (surprising, considering his 2nd best keeper is Stephen Piscotty...)

Mookie Lite isn't a bad call, but his steal totals could very well double Mookies (and have 10+ fewer homers)

 

Trea just has it all. I'm not often this sold on a rookie who comes up and excels right away (too many Shane Spencer's in my memory bank) but Turner is different. He's got every skill you could possibly want... insane quickness and speed, instincts, bat speed, high contact... only questionable things are his on-base ability and power... which could very well be average or slightly above average with polishing and mid-20's-filling-out. Not to mention, he'll be hitting atop a lineup with Bryce Harper, who is a likely rebound candidate.

 

Great things ahead

 

14 minutes ago, taobball said:

I was in love with Trea going next year. The statement "Altuve with more speed" literally just gives me goosebumps.

it's possible he was playing over his head a bit last year. but check out this ridiculousness: Turner finished as the 96th overall player in OBP leagues last season (probably higher in non-OBP). He played 73 games.

 

Even if his power/hitting rates were unsustainable, those steals give him a high floor. Another comparison, rather than "Altuve with more speed" might be "if AJ Pollock and Billy Hamilton had a gaybe"

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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Meant to say last season in that last post lol. 

 

Trea Turner is one of the few players I was extremely aware of coming into the MLB Draft. He was an NCST product I believe alongside Carlos Rodon. He was someone I looked at as a Cubs fan (got Schwarber that draft so no complaints) and really wanted. For me, the beginning of Trea Turner's ascension is in his impeccable makeup and incredibly high baseball IQ. The first I ever heard of him was from an opposing collegiate coach. The details are a little hazy for me, we're talking pre-2014 draft, probably early 2014, but the basics I still remember: the opposing coach was overwhelmingly impressed with subtle things that Trea picked up and adjusted to in the way the opposing pitcher was pitching. Again, hazy details, but the essence of the quote was that he had an MLB Veterans level of adjusting to how he was being pitched at the collegiate level. 

 

A few positive advanced metrics:

25.2% LD% (League Lead: 29.1% (Freeman) Place: 10th in Baseball if he had enough ABs/PAs) 

34.8% Hard% (Not quite as elite, but I believe average is listed at 30%) 

 

Both very high. 

 

The big difference, or at least one of them, that Trea made in comparison to his first very small sample of MLB action in 2015 was that he was far more aggressive. 

 

He swung 47.2% of the time against 39.4% in his first sample. He chased pitches out of the zone at about league average. Technically it was a bit high, but considering that he had a 10% BB% in the minors, I'd be willing to gamble that that involves how he was being pitched, and that, if pitchers adjust and try to junk ball him, he'll adjust just as quickly, lay off bad pitches, and force pitchers to throw his pitches. 

 

Pitchers will open 2017, or at least I believe, with a different game plan for Trea Turner, but I truly believe he's the kind of guy who can continuously make adjustments and set himself up to be successful. FWIW, the only player who I said that about last season was Kris Bryant before his sophomore season. IQ is high with this one, and that means a lot, if not to everyone, to me.  

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37 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Do you have Turner in a keeper?

OT: Full dynasty keep forever on a rebuild team with little hitting that I just took over this past year and was lacking speed, heh.  Funny you mentioned Kluber though.  I actually traded Kluber for Trea and Tyler Glasnow in that league before the season started.  (Also drafted him in another full dynasty league).

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Extremely small sample size with his statistics but a couple of the comps are Paul Molitor and Derek Jeter.  Two HOF players.

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On 11/11/2016 at 0:58 PM, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I'm 100% in on Turner. I'd take him early 2nd round with confidence. I genuinely believe he will be a top 5 fantasy player in 2017. I tried flipping Moncada + Kluber for Trea in a keeper but was rejected, if that speaks to his value. 

 

Disclaimer: I gushed similarly about Correa before last season.

 

his value takes a slight dip in OBP leagues, but I'll predict:

.308-113-17-74-57

so essentially Altuve with more speed

 

Moncada and Kluber for Turner.... I'd have ran to the bank with that.

 

While I like Trea Turner as a player I think his fantasy value is far to over inflated for him to ever end up on any of my teams.  Even if he does exactly what he did for half a season in 2016 over a full season in 2017 you're looking at 2nd round value.

 

I think Turner got pretty lucky in the HR department as well as I see his BABIP taking at least a 20 point hit next season.  If not more.

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2 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

Moncada and Kluber for Turner.... I'd have ran to the bank with that.

 

While I like Trea Turner as a player I think his fantasy value is far to over inflated for him to ever end up on any of my teams.  Even if he does exactly what he did for half a season in 2016 over a full season in 2017 you're looking at 2nd round value.

 

I think Turner got pretty lucky in the HR department as well as I see his BABIP taking at least a 20 point hit next season.  If not more.

 

If he did what he did for half of a season in 2016 in 700 PAs he would have:

 

(Side bar; I haven't done a baseball analysis for a while but all these numbers make sense so I think it turned out well) 

 

.342 28 HRs, 114 R, 86 RBI, 71 SBs. That's not what I'm even remotely going to project, don't get me wrong, but saying that a full season of what he did in 2016 would be second round value is just not factually correct. Altuve was the #2 player on the ESPN player rater with 4 less points in BA, 4 fewer HRs, 6 fewer Rs, and 41 fewer steals while that pace would only lose to Altuve in RBI by 10. 

 

So we're saying he got lucky in BABIP, and he VERY likely did at .388, but his batted ball data in terms of LD/GB/FB and Soft/Med/Hard and their speed is comparable so I think projecting a 41 point decrease down to Altuve's .347 is what I would consider more than fair. Extrapolating that over additional data gives Trea Turner: (FWIW, Steamer and Depth Charts are at .351)

 

w/ 0 HRs: .284 BA

w/ 10 HRs: .295 BA

w/ 15 HRs: .300 BA (FWIW, Steamer and Depth Charts both also have him at 14-15 HRs and a .300 BA) 

w/ 20 HRs: .303 BA

w/ 28 HRs: .311 BA

 

And again, that's inducing a FORTY-ONE point BABIP decrease. 

 

For a value point, I decided for a case study that Dee Gordon would be a nice case study to look at in terms of value:

 

2015 Dee; .333 BA, 4 HRs, 88 Rs, 46 RBI, 58 SBs / #4 Player on the Rater

 

I'm currently not going to project anywhere close to 28 HRs. Since as a prospect I would've never projected 20, let alone 28, but I feel like projecting much less than 20 is simply unfair based on what he did in half of a season, but I'd expect him to have more of a Lindor-esque increase so maybe 17 HRs, understanding that that falls on the side of being conservative.

 

I expect him to eclipse 100 Runs, as I expect his BB% to take a slight uptick based on what he's done throughout his professional career and the fact that he figures to bat in front of some potent bats. I'll call it 105. 

 

RBIs are always probably the trickiest stat to extrapolate for me. Lead off does him no favors in this category in particular, but he did get 39 RBIs last year in 66 Games in the spot, and considering the above extrapolation (the 86 RBIs up at the top) I'm going to put it at 65 RBIs. Again, I love Turner, so I feel like I'm being conservative, but anyone else can say what they will about whether or not this is conservative or not.

 

I'll use 58 SBs just for the ease of the fact that that's Dee's number and that feels good for me too.

 

So my projection:

2017 Trea Turner Projection: .302 BA 17 HRs 105 R 65 RBI 58 SBs; which includes a 41 point BABIP regression, a large power regression, and modest regressions in other categories. To me, that's a first round value, and if he's there in the second, even better. 

 

2015 Dee Gordon: .333 BA 4 HRs 88 R 46 RBI 58 SBs, #4 player in 2015. 
 

So -31 point BA, +13 HRs, +7 Rs, +19 RBIs, and Even SBs. 

Edited by taobball

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For what it's worth Streamer projections are out

 

14- 36 (HR/STL)  with a 300/346/458 slash.

 

Great posts guys!

 

He's going to have 2b and OF eligibility next season. Streamer has him and Altuve basically valued the same. I think in a roto league, I don't think it's too crazy to draft him in round 1 based on these projections.  Hard to get quality steals, especially with a good BA. In leagues where getting your fix on steals aren't as important, he falls as a mid or late 2nd rounder... possibly further down depending on format of course.

 

Steals are super valuable in today's game. You need 1-2 decent + 30 SB bag guys and if they arent hurting you in other categories, thats super valuable because you can always get some decent power later. 

 

 

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Lost in the Adam Eaton news, this is great for Turner. He'll slide from CF to SS with the addition of Eaton and his glove Turner will be the SS (with Espinosa) sliding to a bench role and subbing in at 2B/SS. So now we get his type of production with 2B/SS/OF eligiblity depending on your games played requirements. GOnna have to wait a little to start the year, but it wont take too long!

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1 minute ago, dzemens said:

Lost in the Adam Eaton news, this is great for Turner. He'll slide from CF to SS with the addition of Eaton and his glove Turner will be the SS (with Espinosa) sliding to a bench role and subbing in at 2B/SS. So now we get his type of production with 2B/SS/OF eligiblity depending on your games played requirements. GOnna have to wait a little to start the year, but it wont take too long!


I'm begging his ADP to stay in the late second. I want him in as many leagues as possible. 

 

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Just now, taobball said:


I'm begging his ADP to stay in the late second. I want him in as many leagues as possible. 

 

 

If people look at Shandlers projections for him I dont think he makes it out of the first!

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2 minutes ago, dzemens said:

 

If people look at Shandlers projections for him I dont think he makes it out of the first!

 

I know. My own projections are steep. He's so good. But at least the whole second round is stacked. 

Edited by taobball

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25 minutes ago, dzemens said:

Concerns about splitting SS playing time are dead in the water. Espinosa traded to the Angels.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/nationals-trade-danny-espinosa-to-angels.html

There wouldn't have been any splitting playing times since Espinosa already knew he had been demoted to bench bat and didn't show up at a Nats fan event this weekend.  Blurb thought it was because he was degruntled, and he was apparently.  But maybe he also knew he was about to be traded too.

But glad to make sure he isn't lurking around our man Turner.  You never know what Dusty could do to gum up things if he is given too many options, even dumb ones, to play around with.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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On 11/11/2016 at 1:58 PM, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I'm 100% in on Turner. I'd take him early 2nd round with confidence. I genuinely believe he will be a top 5 fantasy player in 2017. I tried flipping Moncada + Kluber for Trea in a keeper but was rejected, if that speaks to his value. 

 

Disclaimer: I gushed similarly about Correa before last season.

 

his value takes a slight dip in OBP leagues, but I'll predict:

.308-113-17-74-57

so essentially Altuve with more speed

 

Altuve will more speed? This dude has to be the most overrated player for next year's draft.  Let's just look at his walk  rate. With an extremely small walk rate he is forced to generate all of us OBP from his hits; if he lowers his average, his OBP may even become subpar.  It's hard to steal bases when you can't get on base.  He had a.388 Babip - somethijg that is extraordinarily high but perhaps a bit sustainable because of speed.  However, this was only people's first look at him.  There is a treason there is a sophomore slump- pitchers are able to do research.  18% k  rate is not good but not bad, but again does not speak to his plate discipline.  His hard hit and soft hit percentages aren't anything amazing either.  Nothing speaks to him improving, and his power seems fluky as well. 16% HR to FB is high-look at a poeer/OBP good player like KYLE Seager who has a 14 % rate.  I would predict something like this: 285 average, 335 OBP, 13 HR, 40 SB.  not altuve with more speed, especially in OBP leagues 

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58 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Altuve will more speed? This dude has to be the most overrated player for next year's draft.  Let's just look at his walk  rate. With an extremely small walk rate he is forced to generate all of us OBP from his hits; if he lowers his average, his OBP may even become subpar.  It's hard to steal bases when you can't get on base.  He had a.388 Babip - somethijg that is extraordinarily high but perhaps a bit sustainable because of speed.  However, this was only people's first look at him.  There is a treason there is a sophomore slump- pitchers are able to do research.  18% k  rate is not good but not bad, but again does not speak to his plate discipline.  His hard hit and soft hit percentages aren't anything amazing either.  Nothing speaks to him improving, and his power seems fluky as well. 16% HR to FB is high-look at a poeer/OBP good player like KYLE Seager who has a 14 % rate.  I would predict something like this: 285 average, 335 OBP, 13 HR, 40 SB.  not altuve with more speed, especially in OBP leagues 

Disagree. What do you think @mysonx3 and @taobball?

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Altuve will more speed? This dude has to be the most overrated player for next year's draft.  Let's just look at his walk  rate. With an extremely small walk rate he is forced to generate all of us OBP from his hits; if he lowers his average, his OBP may even become subpar.  It's hard to steal bases when you can't get on base.  He had a.388 Babip - somethijg that is extraordinarily high but perhaps a bit sustainable because of speed.  However, this was only people's first look at him.  There is a treason there is a sophomore slump- pitchers are able to do research.  18% k  rate is not good but not bad, but again does not speak to his plate discipline.  His hard hit and soft hit percentages aren't anything amazing either.  Nothing speaks to him improving, and his power seems fluky as well. 16% HR to FB is high-look at a poeer/OBP good player like KYLE Seager who has a 14 % rate.  I would predict something like this: 285 average, 335 OBP, 13 HR, 40 SB.  not altuve with more speed, especially in OBP leagues 

Kyle Seager plays in Safeco. Not a fair comparison at all.

Ironically, the reason you cite that he's not Altuve with more speed is one of the things he has in common with Altuve, who also never walked much except for last year when he walked at a league average rate

To get a .285 average, you must either be projecting his BABIP to regress all the way back to the league average (which I doubt will happen) or projecting a spike in K rate, which doesn't seem very fair either. Sure, it was the league's first look at him, but it was also his first look at the league. Could he hit a sophomore slump? Sure, but he could also get better

Edited by mysonx3

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