Fuzzy_Slippers

Trea Turner 2017 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Altuve will more speed? This dude has to be the most overrated player for next year's draft.  Let's just look at his walk  rate. With an extremely small walk rate he is forced to generate all of us OBP from his hits; if he lowers his average, his OBP may even become subpar.  It's hard to steal bases when you can't get on base.  He had a.388 Babip - somethijg that is extraordinarily high but perhaps a bit sustainable because of speed.  However, this was only people's first look at him.  There is a treason there is a sophomore slump- pitchers are able to do research.  18% k  rate is not good but not bad, but again does not speak to his plate discipline.  His hard hit and soft hit percentages aren't anything amazing either.  Nothing speaks to him improving, and his power seems fluky as well. 16% HR to FB is high-look at a poeer/OBP good player like KYLE Seager who has a 14 % rate.  I would predict something like this: 285 average, 335 OBP, 13 HR, 40 SB.  not altuve with more speed, especially in OBP leagues 

 

care for a friendly bet? I'll wager that in standard leagues, Turner finishes as a top 10 overall player in 2017.

If he doesn't, I'll change my signature (for a while) to "Fsballgod knows best" or something like that 

(I'm not confident he'll get there in OBP leagues)

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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4 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Altuve will more speed? This dude has to be the most overrated player for next year's draft.  Let's just look at his walk  rate. With an extremely small walk rate he is forced to generate all of us OBP from his hits; if he lowers his average, his OBP may even become subpar.  It's hard to steal bases when you can't get on base.  He had a.388 Babip - somethijg that is extraordinarily high but perhaps a bit sustainable because of speed.  However, this was only people's first look at him.  There is a treason there is a sophomore slump- pitchers are able to do research.  18% k  rate is not good but not bad, but again does not speak to his plate discipline.  His hard hit and soft hit percentages aren't anything amazing either.  Nothing speaks to him improving, and his power seems fluky as well. 16% HR to FB is high-look at a poeer/OBP good player like KYLE Seager who has a 14 % rate.  I would predict something like this: 285 average, 335 OBP, 13 HR, 40 SB.  not altuve with more speed, especially in OBP leagues 

 

Firstly, it is ridiculous to me to call someone the "most overrated player" and then give them a .285/13/40 projection at the top of a line-up. You give him 100 Rs and 50 RBIs from leadoff (I think the former is probably low considering the following hitters), and you have an estimated 9.22 Score on ESPN's player rater for 2016, which is 30th on the Player Rater between Josh Donaldson and Eduardo Nunez, and the 17th Ranked Hitter. So adjusting a 60 point "sophomore slump," tying his rookie year HR total in twice the PAs, and adding essentially 7 SBs to 33 SBs in twice the PAs, you've still awarded Trea Turner essentially a late second round early third round value, while my rankings (not the direct projection, but my rankings) put him as the 12th ranked Hitter, a difference of five slots. Extremely overrated, amirite? :rolleyes:

 

Sophomore slumps are bull**** because they're using a singular overarching reason for explaining small adjustments and advancements by scouting and by the player that is just lazy to call things "Sophomore Slumps" or "Not Sophomore Slumps." I'm going to be working on some final projects cause finals week is the next week for me, but as I'm working on those I'm going to be doing some research for an article I'm working on evaluating rookie to sophomore year contact rates. My hypothesis is that it's completely uncorrelated because it is completely up to the hitter.

 

This may come off as a perfect hindsight argument but look at Kris Bryant. A lot of the preseason conversation revolved around is K%, and a lot of people early in that outlook thread claiming that he couldn't hit more than .250 and struck out too much. I wrote this post defending the .275 BA:

The essence of the idea: that Kris Bryant had convinced me he was the kind of hitter who could make adjustments during his rookie season. I saw him slump, I saw pitchers beating him, and I saw him make adjustments and changes, work on his game, and get back to smashing. The end of it is essentially that, I may not have the best statistical argument to defend that the player is going to do something, but at a certain level of baseball IQ, I trust them. I'm a Cubs fan so I've SEEN more of Bryant than of Turner, so I can't be as confident, but Turner is a player that I've loved the Make-up since I started reading articles about him from NCST. I understand that, if the argument is that we're determining based on make-up whether players will struggle or succeed in their second year, that we're making it highly subjective. But that's fine to me, my rankings are my rankings. This is what I believe about this player. I'll try my best to back it with stats, but essentially I believe that Trea Turner is a very good, talented, intelligent hitter who will be able to overcome any slump that opposing pitchers try to put him in.

 

Here's the only defense I can make on that:

 

It's hard to take splits when you're dealing with a player who missed the first half essentially for being in the Minors, so I tried to find about the mid point in PAs, so Turner's First Half and Turner's Second Half for now will be defined by Beginning to August 23rd and August 24th to End.

 

Turner's First Half:

.320/.346/.538, 3.7% BB%, 21.6% K% 

 

Turner's Second Half:
.364/.395/.597, 4.9% BB%, 14.8% K%

 

Turner whiffed a slight bit more in the second half overall, but I'm less concerned because he took more pitches as well, and I don't see any huge concerns with his PD when I look at some of his profiles:

 

You see where he's being pitched, and it's a heavy dose of low and outside:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=13&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=607208&startDate=05/03/2016&endDate=12/30/2016&minmax=ci&var=count&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

However, in the most targeted area (Low and Away, 100 Total Pitches), Turner chased only 11 Times. As someone who just finished a similar evaluation of Cardinals' Jedd Gyorko, trust me when I say I don't think that 11 Chases is a problem. 

 

The pitch one block in, off the plate low, outer 3rd of the plate is a problem for him, as he's chased 38/95 times, and whiffed 23 times. Those numbers are far from ideal, but the advantage Turner has is that it's a very small area, as when that low ball comes a bit further inside, he crushes it, with a .571 BA and .714 SLG on balls off the plate low and middle 3rd. 

 

Turner SMASHES the inside ball. Even balls considered off the plate in. Turner lovesssss the ball inside. Here's his slugging% by area, including the aforementioned .714 SLG:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=13&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=607208&startDate=05/03/2016&endDate=12/30/2016&minmax=ci&var=slg&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

So you can't pitch him in, and you can pitch him low and outside, but if you pitch it too far outside, he won't chase. And you can get him low and inside, but if it gets a little more over the plate or up, he can get it. That's where we're at so far.

 

Because of the way he's been dominating on the inner third, you expect him to get pitched a lot outside. His swing% drops signficantly on the outside, suggesting that he may adjust and take more walks if this switch occurs. Here's a swing% graph:

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=607208&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=swing&s_type=13&startDate=05/03/2016&endDate=12/30/2016&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

I also think most of his problem zones improved more than they diminished as pitchers started handling him differently. Here's a swing% from Turner's second half as I defined it earlier.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_h_profile.php?s_type=13&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&player=607208&startDate=08/24/2016&endDate=12/30/2016&minmax=ci&var=swing&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

I just don't see this guy whiffing enough or struggling enough to be a sub-.290ish hitter, and I think the true talent is above .300 even as early as this year. He's just a really good player. 

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His career BABIP is .379 across all levels so he might have some regression there, but not a ton. Id argue as well that his BB rate is likely to gain some as he sees more MLB pitching and learns the game at that level a bit better. hes never been an elite walks guy but has been in the 9% range or so through minors.

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11 hours ago, taobball said:

Sophomore slumps are bull**** because they're using a singular overarching reason for explaining small adjustments and advancements by scouting and by the player that is just lazy to call things "Sophomore Slumps" or "Not Sophomore Slumps." I'm going to be working on some final projects cause finals week is the next week for me, but as I'm working on those I'm going to be doing some research for an article I'm working on evaluating rookie to sophomore year contact rates. My hypothesis is that it's completely uncorrelated because it is completely up to the hitter.

 

So I'm just tagging this into this thread as I work on it today since I posted this almost 12 hours ago now, but I'm working on that study.

 

Basically, I'm taking all top 100 prospects (hitters) from 2006-2016, evaluating their rookie eligible season to their sophomore season, as long as their sophomore season had at least 130 ABs (so essentailly teh rookie limit) 

 

I'm still pretty early in teh data collection process, but I have 34 Hitters ranging in skill from Delmon Young to Stephen Drew to Dustin Pedroia to McCutchen to Jason Kubel and so far I have:

 

34 Hitters in Terms of K%

23 Hitters Improved K%

2 Hitters Stayed the Same

9 Hitters Had a Worse K%

 

34 HItters in Terms of SwStr%

22 Hitters Improved SwStr%

2 Hitters Stayed the Same

10 Hitters Had a Worse SwStr%

 

So so far, it seems that the typical case is improving on K% and not getting worse. Still probably a couple weeks of casual data collection until I'm done, but the point i"m trying to get at is: expecting his K% to increase cause of "sophomore slumps" or "pitchers figuring him out" seems dumb to me, because I think it discounts him figuring out pitchers and his bat increasing to meet the difficulty of mLB caliber stuff. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

So I'm just tagging this into this thread as I work on it today since I posted this almost 12 hours ago now, but I'm working on that study.

 

Basically, I'm taking all top 100 prospects (hitters) from 2006-2016, evaluating their rookie eligible season to their sophomore season, as long as their sophomore season had at least 130 ABs (so essentailly teh rookie limit) 

 

I'm still pretty early in teh data collection process, but I have 34 Hitters ranging in skill from Delmon Young to Stephen Drew to Dustin Pedroia to McCutchen to Jason Kubel and so far I have:

 

34 Hitters in Terms of K%

23 Hitters Improved K%

2 Hitters Stayed the Same

9 Hitters Had a Worse K%

 

34 HItters in Terms of SwStr%

22 Hitters Improved SwStr%

2 Hitters Stayed the Same

10 Hitters Had a Worse SwStr%

 

So so far, it seems that the typical case is improving on K% and not getting worse. Still probably a couple weeks of casual data collection until I'm done, but the point i"m trying to get at is: expecting his K% to increase cause of "sophomore slumps" or "pitchers figuring him out" seems dumb to me, because I think it discounts him figuring out pitchers and his bat increasing to meet the difficulty of mLB caliber stuff. 

 

 

Will you include Contact% in your research? That's the most telling (in my eyes) for a hitter

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2 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Will you include Contact% in your research? That's the most telling (in my eyes) for a hitter

 

Yeah I think that's a wise move. I haven't gotten too far into it that'll it'll take too much more time, and like I said, I'm trying to finish this just in my spare time before hte Spring Semester, so I'm planning on taking probably a couple weeks. As soon as this weeks over my schedule though will be completely blank, so I'll be working on this a fair amount. 

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Man.

 

I love Trea Turner, but the hype is getting crazy. In a dynasty league, I just made a godfather offer of Anthony Rizzo + Steven Matz for Trea Turner...and it was rejected...and this is in an OBP/SLG league!

 

I can't possibly go higher than that...

 

I think the ADP could creep into the first round at this rate.

 

(I totally get it too, the power speed upside is awesome, especially in BA leagues).

Enjoy if you have him, I think he's a special talent.

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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On 11/13/2016 at 0:04 AM, taobball said:

 

If he did what he did for half of a season in 2016 in 700 PAs he would have:

 

(Side bar; I haven't done a baseball analysis for a while but all these numbers make sense so I think it turned out well) 

 

.342 28 HRs, 114 R, 86 RBI, 71 SBs. That's not what I'm even remotely going to project, don't get me wrong, but saying that a full season of what he did in 2016 would be second round value is just not factually correct. Altuve was the #2 player on the ESPN player rater with 4 less points in BA, 4 fewer HRs, 6 fewer Rs, and 41 fewer steals while that pace would only lose to Altuve in RBI by 10. 

 

So we're saying he got lucky in BABIP, and he VERY likely did at .388, but his batted ball data in terms of LD/GB/FB and Soft/Med/Hard and their speed is comparable so I think projecting a 41 point decrease down to Altuve's .347 is what I would consider more than fair. Extrapolating that over additional data gives Trea Turner: (FWIW, Steamer and Depth Charts are at .351)

 

w/ 0 HRs: .284 BA

w/ 10 HRs: .295 BA

w/ 15 HRs: .300 BA (FWIW, Steamer and Depth Charts both also have him at 14-15 HRs and a .300 BA) 

w/ 20 HRs: .303 BA

w/ 28 HRs: .311 BA

 

And again, that's inducing a FORTY-ONE point BABIP decrease. 

 

For a value point, I decided for a case study that Dee Gordon would be a nice case study to look at in terms of value:

 

2015 Dee; .333 BA, 4 HRs, 88 Rs, 46 RBI, 58 SBs / #4 Player on the Rater

 

I'm currently not going to project anywhere close to 28 HRs. Since as a prospect I would've never projected 20, let alone 28, but I feel like projecting much less than 20 is simply unfair based on what he did in half of a season, but I'd expect him to have more of a Lindor-esque increase so maybe 17 HRs, understanding that that falls on the side of being conservative.

 

I expect him to eclipse 100 Runs, as I expect his BB% to take a slight uptick based on what he's done throughout his professional career and the fact that he figures to bat in front of some potent bats. I'll call it 105. 

 

RBIs are always probably the trickiest stat to extrapolate for me. Lead off does him no favors in this category in particular, but he did get 39 RBIs last year in 66 Games in the spot, and considering the above extrapolation (the 86 RBIs up at the top) I'm going to put it at 65 RBIs. Again, I love Turner, so I feel like I'm being conservative, but anyone else can say what they will about whether or not this is conservative or not.

 

I'll use 58 SBs just for the ease of the fact that that's Dee's number and that feels good for me too.

 

So my projection:

2017 Trea Turner Projection: .302 BA 17 HRs 105 R 65 RBI 58 SBs; which includes a 41 point BABIP regression, a large power regression, and modest regressions in other categories. To me, that's a first round value, and if he's there in the second, even better. 

 

2015 Dee Gordon: .333 BA 4 HRs 88 R 46 RBI 58 SBs, #4 player in 2015. 
 

So -31 point BA, +13 HRs, +7 Rs, +19 RBIs, and Even SBs. 

It's +17 Runs, but otherwise great analysis and I agree with nearly all of that.

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On 12/7/2016 at 11:08 PM, dzemens said:

Lost in the Adam Eaton news, this is great for Turner. He'll slide from CF to SS with the addition of Eaton and his glove Turner will be the SS (with Espinosa) sliding to a bench role and subbing in at 2B/SS. So now we get his type of production with 2B/SS/OF eligiblity depending on your games played requirements. GOnna have to wait a little to start the year, but it wont take too long!

Good effing lord. Not sure he will have 2B eligability though will he?

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9 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Man.

 

I love Trea Turner, but the hype is getting crazy. In a dynasty league, I just made a godfather offer of Anthony Rizzo + Steven Matz for Trea Turner...and it was rejected...and this is in an OBP/SLG league!

 

I can't possibly go higher than that...

 

I think the ADP could creep into the first round at this rate.

 

(I totally get it too, the power speed upside is awesome, especially in BA leagues).

Enjoy if you have him, I think he's a special talent.

 

Wow, that's hell of an offer. I own Turner in a dynasty and I would think it's a mistake or someone trying to trick me (Rizzo being injured) if they offered Rizzo for Turner.

 

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9 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Man.

 

I love Trea Turner, but the hype is getting crazy. In a dynasty league, I just made a godfather offer of Anthony Rizzo + Steven Matz for Trea Turner...and it was rejected...and this is in an OBP/SLG league!

 

I can't possibly go higher than that...

 

I think the ADP could creep into the first round at this rate.

 

(I totally get it too, the power speed upside is awesome, especially in BA leagues).

Enjoy if you have him, I think he's a special talent.

Wouldn't even have blinked in rejecting that offer. 

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2 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Wouldn't even have blinked in rejecting that offer. 

In obp/slg...really? Rizzo will slaughter trea in both those cats

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Really. I'll take the top tier SS over a top tier 1st baseman any day. So would you as it seems you offered the trade. Has a lot to do with getting a replacement also.

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4 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Good effing lord. Not sure he will have 2B eligability though will he?

He started 25 games at 2B last season and "appeared" in 30.  I know some leagues have longer requirements than Yahoo's 5 but even in those leagues he should be eligible.

And yes you get nice trade offers for Trea.  Within just a couple of weeks of his call-up I got offers of Steven Strasberg plus 3 others players in one deal, Jacob deGrom and 2 other players in another and a straight up offer of Yoan Moncada all in one dynasty alone.  I imagine the offers will be even more insane this spring.

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I haven't seen any of that yet in my keeper league. I've gotten inquiries, but none of them close to fair value. I tend to rely on veterans, so maybe these guys think I don't realize what I have in Turner. 

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9 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

When I said overrated, I meant this type of stuff. Lol 

I'm not a Trea hater at all, but I couldn't believe my ears when Rizzo + Matz is an instant reject without even blinking...I mean good grief.

 

Don't even care if you ultimately prefer Trea, but that's a godfather offer IMO and at minimum a very good offer, one that at least merits consideration.

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2 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

I'm not a Trea hater at all, but I couldn't believe my ears when Rizzo + Matz is an instant reject without even blinking...I mean good grief.

 

Don't even care if you ultimately prefer Trea, but that's a godfather offer IMO and at minimum a very good offer, one that at least merits consideration.

 

I mean, team context matters in terms of speed and position for the dynasties in this case. Offers aren't made in a vacuum, only theoretical ones, so I can't comment on how crazy the other owner is, and it's kinda a long tangent. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean, team context matters in terms of speed and position for the dynasties in this case. Offers aren't made in a vacuum, only theoretical ones, so I can't comment on how crazy the other owner is, and it's kinda a long tangent. 

Yeah I'm not trying to derail this thread but he needed 1B and had abundant SS. And obp/slg and 2 until and CI so 1B aren't bad positionally anyways.

 

Anyways, without derailing, I do think this is all relevant to how high Trea is being valued right now.

 

dont care that the trade wasn't done. Was referring to a comment ITT

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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On 12/11/2016 at 2:08 PM, taobball said:

 

Firstly, it is ridiculous to me to call someone the "most overrated player" and then give them a .285/13/40 projection at the top of a line-up. You give him 100 Rs and 50 RBIs from leadoff (I think the former is probably low considering the following hitters), and you have an estimated 9.22 Score on ESPN's player rater for 2016, which is 30th on the Player Rater between Josh Donaldson and Eduardo Nunez, and the 17th Ranked Hitter. So adjusting a 60 point "sophomore slump," tying his rookie year HR total in twice the PAs, and adding essentially 7 SBs to 33 SBs in twice the PAs, you've still awarded Trea Turner essentially a late second round early third round value, while my rankings (not the direct projection, but my rankings) put him as the 12th ranked Hitter, a difference of five slots. Extremely overrated, amirite? :rolleyes:

 

Sophomore slumps are bull**** because they're using a singular overarching reason for explaining small adjustments and advancements by scouting and by the player that is just lazy to call things "Sophomore Slumps" or "Not Sophomore Slumps." I'm going to be working on some final projects cause finals week is the next week for me, but as I'm working on those I'm going to be doing some research for an article I'm working on evaluating rookie to sophomore year contact rates. My hypothesis is that it's completely uncorrelated because it is completely up to the hitter.

 

 

 

 

I see where he's coming from, he's a good player, but seems like a lot group think going on here.

 

Sophomore slumps?

 

Not every Sophomore is the same. He's in a different class because I don't think he has gone through his adjustment phase yet? I didn't own him, but looking at his month to month splits, I don't think he struggled at all last year. Everyone as rookie has an adjustment phase. If he didn't have it yet, then it's coming. And that's going to happen in 2017 if it didn't already. Those that owned him will know more than me. All I want to know is, has Trea Turner gone through his adjustment phase and if so when did it happen?

 

I mean, I see Altuve quoted a lot as a comp, and I like that comp. In Altuve's first 2 full years he hit .290 and .283.

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1 hour ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

 

I see where he's coming from, he's a good player, but seems like a lot group think going on here.

 

Sophomore slumps?

 

Not every Sophomore is the same. He's in a different class because I don't think he has gone through his adjustment phase yet? I didn't own him, but looking at his month to month splits, I don't think he struggled at all last year. Everyone as rookie has an adjustment phase. If he didn't have it yet, then it's coming. And that's going to happen in 2017 if it didn't already. Those that owned him will know more than me. All I want to know is, has Trea Turner gone through his adjustment phase and if so when did it happen?

 

I mean, I see Altuve quoted a lot as a comp, and I like that comp. In Altuve's first 2 full years he hit .290 and .283.

 

He struggled out the gate in 2015, but I know isn't exaclty what you're talking about... but I don't know what the actual concern is? Is the concern he struggles for a little bit? It's not that I don't see that, it's just that, for a guy who I expect to have a large volume of steals, I don't see it at something that's going to tank him. And, given that there's already obvious variability as there is with every player, I just don't see this as being a variable that is so overwhelmingly necessary to lower projections. Maybe he adjusts quickly, we just don't know his aptitude yet. I'm inclined to believe, and this is how i started my initial trea turner love post, that he has a high baseball IQ and high aptitude from things I've heard about him from the time he was at NCST. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

 

I see where he's coming from, he's a good player, but seems like a lot group think going on here.

 

Sophomore slumps?

 

Not every Sophomore is the same. He's in a different class because I don't think he has gone through his adjustment phase yet? I didn't own him, but looking at his month to month splits, I don't think he struggled at all last year. Everyone as rookie has an adjustment phase. If he didn't have it yet, then it's coming. And that's going to happen in 2017 if it didn't already. Those that owned him will know more than me. All I want to know is, has Trea Turner gone through his adjustment phase and if so when did it happen?

 

I mean, I see Altuve quoted a lot as a comp, and I like that comp. In Altuve's first 2 full years he hit .290 and .283.

All players go through adjustment phases every year. That's the ebb and flow of baseball. If you're going to penalize one hitter because he'll have an adjustment period, you have to penalize them all, which leaves you with no net change. The question is how productive will a player be during that adjustment phase and how quick he'll snap out of it. I like Turner's chances because, as they say, "speed never slumps"

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35 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Sophomore slumps are way easier for an elite speed person to get through.  Just slap or bunt the ball and run.

Tell that to Delino DeShields. Man, he burned me.

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1 minute ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Tell that to Delino DeShields. Man, he burned me.

 

Delino Deshields is an awful baseball player though. I don' tknow if you were in that thread last year but me and SpecialFNK went at it a lot over Deshields. He's awful and has terrible intangibles/make-up too according to various reports. 

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