Fuzzy_Slippers

Trea Turner 2017 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Just now, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

I have him and Turner valued similarly at the moment. I was surprised to see that Turner's ADP has crept into the first round, you're really paying for what he did in those 73 games last year. I'm not saying I completely dislike him as I'd start considering him around pick 15 or so, but I think it's a mistake picking him over the guys I mentioned above

oh I was asking im stuck if I wanted to keep Turner or Correa

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm a huge Trea Turner guy but I couldn't imagine taking him in the 1st with all of those safe picks available.  2nd Round would be where I would want to target him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the Fangraphs article about Turner's xStats projection out (posted previous page) along with the other projection systems released (e.g. Zips, Steamer), it seems the prevailing thought among fantasy sharps is that Turner is overvalued if going late 1st (~9-14) largely based on Babip/BA & Hr/FB regression. When using tools like Baseball Monster that rely on standard deviation analysis and seeing that Villar 2016 was a mid-2nd round value (5x5 roto), I can see the gist of this from a pure numerical value stand point. And I think many would consider a Villar 2016 a 'successful' Turner year.

 

I have noticed, however, that based on the make up of the player pool after the 2nd round it seems easier to build a roto team and hit statistical team benchmarks in the hitting cats when/if you select Turner in the late 1st. With relatively few power/speed guys compared to bopping sloths later in drafts, there "seems" to be an easier road in filling out your BA, R, HR, RBI, SB team portfolio without having to resort to SB specialists who require sometimes significant statistical sacrifice (negative standard deviations) in other categories. My personal realization came when often I had/have to "reach" for one of the mid-round power/speed players (or speed players who have little statistical sacrifice in the other 4 batting categories) due to scarcity and similar drafting strategies exercised among the 11-13 other teams in the league.

 

 

** Edit: And just as I was typing this, a similar discussion breaks out on the bottom of page 5 in the ADP thread (wrt the advantages of Miggy's BA anchor). Go figure.

Edited by bbythepier

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, bbythepier said:

With relatively few power/speed guys compared to bopping sloths later in drafts

Okay this isn't about Trea but mods don't delete because this phrase needs to be framed and highlighted.  It is a keeper for the ages!  One of my teams is currently so flat-footed I'm tempted to change it's name to The Bopping Sloths now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currently have him ranked around number 11 or so. I'm not sure he profiles as a .320+ hitter (probably closer to a .280-.290 hitter in most years by metrics), but the power seems legit given exit velocity and launch angle data... legit 18+ homer power. Speed is legit 45+ SB. SS/2B/OF eligibility shortly into the season. Generally, a lot to like. For me, if I am drafting late, I'm hoping to pair Turner with a safer other option at the swing (Cabrera, Rizzo, Votto come to mind). This gives a good mix of projection and upside out of the early picks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It Turner this year's Carlos Correa?   Relatively small sample size of stats.  Great production from it. Extrapolated expectations with no truly proven track record. Hyped into the first round.   Remember 2 things about Correa. First, he turned in a fine season in 2016.   Second, people were disappointed in him because he was over-hyped and had unreasonable expectations from the fantasy community.  I'm seeing a pattern here.

 

No way I take a guy with 73 games played in round 1 in a redraft league (keeper or dynasty is a different story).   Don't get me wrong here, I like the guy and think he has a great career ahead of him (I made a very aggressive trade offer for him in a keeper league last month that way overpaid for him and Springer and got him and I couldn't be happier about it).   But his ADP is simply out of control.   His expectations and hype are so high that he could turn in a .280 15HR, 25 SB 70 run season and be called a disappointment.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Khahan said:

It Turner this year's Carlos Correa?   Relatively small sample size of stats.  Great production from it. Extrapolated expectations with no truly proven track record. Hyped into the first round.   Remember 2 things about Correa. First, he turned in a fine season in 2016.   Second, people were disappointed in him because he was over-hyped and had unreasonable expectations from the fantasy community.  I'm seeing a pattern here.

 

No way I take a guy with 73 games played in round 1 in a redraft league (keeper or dynasty is a different story).   Don't get me wrong here, I like the guy and think he has a great career ahead of him (I made a very aggressive trade offer for him in a keeper league last month that way overpaid for him and Springer and got him and I couldn't be happier about it).   But his ADP is simply out of control.   His expectations and hype are so high that he could turn in a .280 15HR, 25 SB 70 run season and be called a disappointment.

 

 

 

Devil's advocate wrt Correa 2015 vs Turner 2016:

 

Carlos Correa: Using standard deviation models, much of Correa's value if you extrapolated his 2015 stats into a full season was his HR & RBI. 

 

Trea Turner: Much of his value if you extrapolated his 2016 #s is derived from +4-5 standard deviations in SBs & huge value in BA,R.

Some might argue that Turner's Rs & SBs have higher floor and more "predictability" than Correa's HR/FB and (RBI opportunities + BA in those opportunities). This enhanced "predictability" might have to due with batting order placement and a player's speed trumping the "predictability" of launch angle/exit velocity & availability of teammates on base in front of you.

 

 

Jose Reyes had 4 years of ~ 60+ SB seasons, which was almost in direct correlation to his 19 STLs in 53 games of 2004. It is common for basestealers to have their huge SB seasons early in their career. By choosing to sit out Turner's 2017, it's possible you'll miss out on 20-25% of Turner's elite fantasy seasons.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-stolen-base-aging-curve-depicted/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

 

Jose Reyes had 4 years of ~ 60+ SB seasons, which was almost in direct correlation to his 19 STLs in 53 games of 2004. It is common for basestealers to have their huge SB seasons early in their career. By choosing to sit out Turner's 2017, it's possible you'll miss out on 20-25% of Turner's elite fantasy seasons.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-stolen-base-aging-curve-depicted/

 

In redraft leagues you aren't possibly missing out on 20-25% of his production because there is no guarantee you will get him one year to the next.  And like I said - in a dynasty or keeper league its a different story on where I'd draft him.  I most likely wont have turner in my redraft leagues this year, though. I'm 100% NOT getting him in round 1. Even early R2 I think is over-reaching  since we don't have any reliability for him. Just too small of a sample size.  Late 2nd (last 2 or 3 picks) early 3 I'd grab him and be comfortable.

 

And Devil's advocate - there is now 73 games worth of scouting reports on him. That means pitchers have that much more data than used to have to figure out how to pitch to him.  No telling how he adjusts. He could be Mike Trout and adjust fine. He could be Nolan Arenado in his second go around and get sent back down to the minors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Turner is absolutely a risk. He has an extremely limited track record and frankly his minor league stats would not have predicted that he be as productive as he was last year (especially in the HR.SB area). Now, that profile isn't extremely unusual. Lindor was always viewed as a glove first prospect with limited offensive upside. Came in 2015 with a nice second half and replicated a good chunk of that advancement over all of 2016.

 

Now, Turner has a few advantages. First, speed plays at any level. Turner showed totally legitimate speed in his first year that I expect he'll maintain. Second, position flexibility... most people view him as having the highest value at SS, but flexibility is generally underrated. Finally, given the make-up of the Nationals roster, he's almost guaranteed to get a  really long look hitting in front of Murphy and Harper. There aren't a lot of good alternatives for the Nats in the 1/2 holes.

 

Again, I would pair him with a safer early second rounder, but Turner probably has enough floor for me to think that you aren't going to get slaughtered if he's a late first/early second rounder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While he's obviously not going to be a gratuitous stat-monster, he seems to at least fill the role of a Craig Biggio-type constant benefit to a dynasty team. He'll likely remain a .300+ hitter with respectable SBs, moderate power, and respectable Rs as long as he keeps a good team behind him in the lineup. I can't see drafting him ahead of Altuve or Cano this year, but the potential is definitely there for him to be a 1st rounder in 2018, which makes him hard to ignore if you're drafting a dynasty team.

If you had to choose between drafting Turner in the first round or Story in the second round, which dice would you roll?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Agnominous said:

While he's obviously not going to be a gratuitous stat-monster, he seems to at least fill the role of a Craig Biggio-type constant benefit to a dynasty team. He'll likely remain a .300+ hitter with respectable SBs, moderate power, and respectable Rs as long as he keeps a good team behind him in the lineup. I can't see drafting him ahead of Altuve or Cano this year, but the potential is definitely there for him to be a 1st rounder in 2018, which makes him hard to ignore if you're drafting a dynasty team.

If you had to choose between drafting Turner in the first round or Story in the second round, which dice would you roll?

 

Turner in a points league. Story strikes out too often in that format.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the choices I'd take   Turner over Story as SB are harder to find. Hr are much easier it seems going on last years data.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, oswald737 said:

Turner is absolutely a risk. He has an extremely limited track record and frankly his minor league stats would not have predicted that he be as productive as he was last year (especially in the HR.SB area). Now, that profile isn't extremely unusual. Lindor was always viewed as a glove first prospect with limited offensive upside. Came in 2015 with a nice second half and replicated a good chunk of that advancement over all of 2016.

 

Now, Turner has a few advantages. First, speed plays at any level. Turner showed totally legitimate speed in his first year that I expect he'll maintain. Second, position flexibility... most people view him as having the highest value at SS, but flexibility is generally underrated. Finally, given the make-up of the Nationals roster, he's almost guaranteed to get a  really long look hitting in front of Murphy and Harper. There aren't a lot of good alternatives for the Nats in the 1/2 holes.

 

Again, I would pair him with a safer early second rounder, but Turner probably has enough floor for me to think that you aren't going to get slaughtered if he's a late first/early second rounder.

If Turner stays healthy and has a batting average near .300,  he should be a lock for 50 SB's and 100 R's with that lineup.  I agree that speed plays at any level and Turner proved that last year.  The HR's and RBI's are harder to predict but he should be capable of adding 15 HR's and about 55 RBI's.

 

In a twelve team league,  most people will need to target him in the top 15 if you want him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Agnominous said:

While he's obviously not going to be a gratuitous stat-monster, he seems to at least fill the role of a Craig Biggio-type constant benefit to a dynasty team. He'll likely remain a .300+ hitter with respectable SBs, moderate power, and respectable Rs as long as he keeps a good team behind him in the lineup. I can't see drafting him ahead of Altuve or Cano this year, but the potential is definitely there for him to be a 1st rounder in 2018, which makes him hard to ignore if you're drafting a dynasty team.

If you had to choose between drafting Turner in the first round or Story in the second round, which dice would you roll?

 

In a dynasty/keeper league I'll take turner.  In a redraft league, I'll look elsewhere and let others roll the dice on both that early this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really love Trea this season. Should score a ton of runs and have 40+ stolen bases. Throw in 15 homers and a ~.300 average and he seems like an excellent early second round pick. Just hope Dusty keeps him at the top of that line up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would it be crazy to take him at #10 overall in a roto league?  Over the likes of say Donaldson, Rizzo, Miggy?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, PurpleHaze479 said:

Would it be crazy to take him at #10 overall in a roto league?  Over the likes of say Donaldson, Rizzo, Miggy?

 

I think it would be especially if those three are available.  Go with the proven commodities that early 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PurpleHaze479 said:

Would it be crazy to take him at #10 overall in a roto league?  Over the likes of say Donaldson, Rizzo, Miggy?

I would, 2b/of and soon to be SS eligibility is nice and speed is hard to come by, he went 8th in my current NFBC draft champions draft ahead of Harper and Machado

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.