Fuzzy_Slippers

Trea Turner 2017 Outlook

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Not crazy at all.  Third base is really deep and you can get Freddie Freeman in the next round if you want someone as good as Rizzo.

 

Yeah that's exactly what I'm thinking 

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I really don't see the point of taking guys with no track record in the first round.  People did that with Correa and were burned.  Not too bad, but were burned.  Now people want to roll dice with TT over a short sample size.  TT is a mid 2nd rounder to me,

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

I really don't see the point of taking guys with no track record in the first round.  People did that with Correa and were burned.  Not too bad, but were burned.  Now people want to roll dice with TT over a short sample size.  TT is a mid 2nd rounder to me,

 

Different players and skillsets obviously, but first recent example that came to mind when I was reading the last few posts was Correa last season. Many people were just certain he'd return first round value and obviously he didn't come close to providing that. 


FWIW, with steals at such a premium now, I think even if he takes a big step back offensively he'll maintain a high floor in roto due to his likely SB tally. 

Edited by absknicks

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16 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I really don't see the point of taking guys with no track record in the first round.  People did that with Correa and were burned.  Not too bad, but were burned.  Now people want to roll dice with TT over a short sample size.  TT is a mid 2nd rounder to me,

I was one of those people who was left disappointed with correa. Ya know what, this isn't Correa. I'm taking Turner in my draft in round 1. Before Machado and Rizzo. 

 

Maybe ill regret it. Maybe I'll be sitting on the next fantasy superstar.

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17 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I really don't see the point of taking guys with no track record in the first round.  People did that with Correa and were burned.  Not too bad, but were burned.  Now people want to roll dice with TT over a short sample size.  TT is a mid 2nd rounder to me,

It's a risk. There's no denying it. If I thought Machado would steal 10 bags I'd take him in a heartbeat.

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10 minutes ago, Call me Red said:

I'm predicting

 

.305AVG 95R 14HR 58RBI 50SB

Looks like a first rounder if Turner is able to produce those numbers.  If he can hit around .300,  Runs and SB's look easy to reach.

Speed is easier to predict in fantasy than power numbers.

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21 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Looks like a first rounder if Turner is able to produce those numbers.  If he can hit around .300,  Runs and SB's look easy to reach.

Speed is easier to predict in fantasy than power numbers.

.300 100 runs and 40 SB would be unreal. He's got a shot.

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12 hours ago, Call me Red said:

I was one of those people who was left disappointed with correa. Ya know what, this isn't Correa. I'm taking Turner in my draft in round 1. Before Machado and Rizzo. 

 

Maybe ill regret it. Maybe I'll be sitting on the next fantasy superstar.

This surprises me a bit.  I understand drafting him over Rizzo to an extent, but Machado is an absolute beast with the multi-position eligibility to boot. 

So where do you place Villar in your draft heirarchy? 

Edited by Stats

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1 hour ago, Stats said:

This surprises me a bit.  I understand drafting him over Rizzo to an extent, but Machado is an absolute beast with the multi-position eligibility to boot. 

So where do you place Villar in your draft heirarchy? 

Machado hit .294 last year. 200 RBI/runs, 37 HRs. Finished 45th on ESPN Player Rater. 

In just 73 games last season, thus only able to compile 93 RBI/runs, Turner finished 59th on Player Rater. 

This is what taking a zero in a category (SBs) will do in standard 5 x 5. So even if Turner's average drops to .300 in a full season and he doesn't add ANY HRs or SBs, just counting stats, it's very likely he outearns Machado in 2017 in standard 5 x 5. Machado is clearly the safer play, but if you think Turner can even go .300/95/15/80/40 he's the higher ceiling player for sure. 

 

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1 hour ago, Stats said:

This surprises me a bit.  I understand drafting him over Rizzo to an extent, but Machado is an absolute beast with the multi-position eligibility to boot. 

So where do you place Villar in your draft heirarchy? 

Oh, I'm well aware of Machado and how good he is. I had him last year. His lack of SB kills him with me. Joey Votto will give me his numbers in round 2/3. 

 

Villar...he's good. Not sure I love his situation. 

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On 2017. 03. 11. at 9:34 AM, BBWeekly said:

 

And comparison to someone else.

First I saw T Turner numbers, he reminded me someone right away so I checked it, and found this:

Player A is Truner
2015 AA level
254 PA
5 HR
11 SB
9.4 BB%
18.9 K%
.322 BA
.150 ISO

 

2015 AAA level
205 PA
3 HR
14 SB
6.3 BB%
20.0 K%
.314 BA
.117 ISO


2016 AAA level
371 PA
6 HR
25 SB
10.0 BB%
19.4 K%
.302 BA


2016 MLB
324 PA
13 HR !
33 SB !
4.3 BB% !
18.2 K%
.342 BA !
.225 ISO

 

Player B
2009 AA level
440 PA
8 HR
37 SB
10.9 BB%
11.8 K%
.316 BA
.170 ISO

 

2010 AAA level
458 PA
3 HR
37 SB
10.3 BB%
14.6 K%
.278 BA
.115 ISO


2011 AAA level
397 PA
12 HR
17 SB
11.3 BB%
19.6 K%
.275 BA
.180 ISO


2011 MLB
287 PA
10 HR
20 SB
10.8 BB%
20.6 K%
.259 BA
.190 ISO

 

The only real difference is BA in their AAA + MLB season, dispite similar K% and power and speed.
Player B is Desmond Jennings.

Everybody knows how that ended.

 

Edited by JCD
spacing

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On 3/11/2017 at 3:11 AM, absknicks said:

 

Different players and skillsets obviously, but first recent example that came to mind when I was reading the last few posts was Correa last season. Many people were just certain he'd return first round value and obviously he didn't come close to providing that. 


FWIW, with steals at such a premium now, I think even if he takes a big step back offensively he'll maintain a high floor in roto due to his likely SB tally. 

I don't think the comparison really holds up here. Correa did nothing wrong, the SS market just got very interesting around him overnight. Assuming Trea does something close to projections, for the comparison to be similar we'd have to see SBs all of a sudden jump league wide around him, making his relative value a lot less. 

You took Correa high last year b/c you were banking on SS being hard to fill, you draft Trea this year b/c you think SBs are at a premium. 

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53 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Machado hit .294 last year. 200 RBI/runs, 37 HRs. Finished 45th on ESPN Player Rater. 

In just 73 games last season, thus only able to compile 93 RBI/runs, Turner finished 59th on Player Rater. 

This is what taking a zero in a category (SBs) will do in standard 5 x 5. So even if Turner's average drops to .300 in a full season and he doesn't add ANY HRs or SBs, just counting stats, it's very likely he outearns Machado in 2017 in standard 5 x 5. Machado is clearly the safer play, but if you think Turner can even go .300/95/15/80/40 he's the higher ceiling player for sure. 

 

I think that 5x5 portion of your response is certainly key. I play in a couple of leagues that are 6x6 and punting steals can be used as a strategy to focus more on the other counting stats. So I probably need to keep the discrepancy between the two formats in mind. Also, the player rater isn't something I've given much thought to in the past. Maybe it is a tool I need to utilize more often. Thanks for the response.

Edited by Stats

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49 minutes ago, Call me Red said:

Oh, I'm well aware of Machado and how good he is. I had him last year. His lack of SB kills him with me. Joey Votto will give me his numbers in round 2/3. 

 

Villar...he's good. Not sure I love his situation. 

I see where you are coming from. Part of the reason, I believe, I have a such a lag in my appreciation for Turner is the discrepancy between what he was projected to be as a prospect and where he is now, as a fantasy commodity. I missed out on him in all of my keeper leagues because although he was portended to be very good, he was dwarfed in hype by the likes of Seager, Buxton, Moncada and a couple of others. I saw him more as a speedy middle infielder who had some pop. His jump to the major leagues certainly didn't suppress his ceiling in the way that I thought it would. So some part of me is sour grapes watching others reap the rewards of his success. I'll get over it, maybe.....

Thanks! 

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1 hour ago, Stats said:

I see where you are coming from. Part of the reason, I believe, I have a such a lag in my appreciation for Turner is the discrepancy between what he was projected to be as a prospect and where he is now, as a fantasy commodity. I missed out on him in all of my keeper leagues because although he was portended to be very good, he was dwarfed in hype by the likes of Seager, Buxton, Moncada and a couple of others. I saw him more as a speedy middle infielder who had some pop. His jump to the major leagues certainly didn't suppress his ceiling in the way that I thought it would. So some part of me is sour grapes watching others reap the rewards of his success. I'll get over it, maybe.....

Thanks! 

Ha!  I don't know, sometimes you get a feeling about a guy.  I had it with David Johnson on the Cardinals in the NFL last season.  Then again, I had it with Correa. :lol:

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5 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

I don't think the comparison really holds up here. Correa did nothing wrong, the SS market just got very interesting around him overnight.

 

Correa didn't come close to providing first round value last year, the fact that a bunch of shortstops were better than him doesn't really change or excuse that. He simply wasn't as good as people were expecting/hoping him to be. 

 

But yeah, as I said in my initial post, it's a loose comparison in the sense that both players had enormous success in limited action before coming in with incredible expectations the following season. Obviously they're very different players with different skillsets and outlooks.

Edited by absknicks

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Yeah another difference with Jennings is that he can walk, and Henderson was one of the prolific walkers of all time.  So, turner is nothing like 

Henderson.

 

 

This dude will not survive.  Mark my words 

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1 minute ago, Fbaseballgod said:

This dude will not survive.  Mark my words

Why won't he survive? What factors will be so bad that he can't survive?

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This is a very overlooked concept: but you don't need your first rounders to return first round value. In roto, more than any other fantasy sport, it's the collective/whole of your team that will win you a fantasy baseball championship. Correa's 80, 20, 95, 13, .275 season at SS likely didn't cost anybody their league. It was the next 20+ picks in your draft that had much more impact. What you want to avoid at all costs are the total busts in the first round (the pitcher that blows out his elbow a month into the season). 

 

Aim to get .85 cents on the dollar, especially in the first several rounds. E.g. take the established 5 cat durable stud with thousands of major league plate appearances even if the upside may be limited.

 

My problem with Trea Turner is that he has no major league track record .. a few hundred plate appearances is a drop in the bucket. 

 

If the league adjusts, or if Turner starts out slow, he could easily lose his spot in the lineup, and even get demoted. Do not lose your league burning a top 20 pick (or $30+) on a guy who has no established major league track record other than a hot few hundred plate appearances.

 

I think his ZiPS projection is the one you want to "pay" for/value him as: 

 

595 PA, .282, 14 HR, 77 R, 66 RBI, 35 SB 

 

If he falls in your draft to the price above ... you take him and then be pleasantly surprised by the upside.  But don't pay for upside, especially in the first couple rounds. More often than not, you'll be left disappointed.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Yeah another difference with Jennings is that he can walk, and Henderson was one of the prolific walkers of all time.  So, turner is nothing like 

Henderson.

 

 

This dude will not survive.  Mark my words 

I'm going to return to this post in July and snicker. :D

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