Fuzzy_Slippers

Trea Turner 2017 Outlook

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33 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

. E.g. take the established 5 cat durable stud with thousands of major league plate appearances

Agree in principal, but how many of these guys exist? They're pretty few and far between.

I'm going to use pretty loose definitions for those qualifications you described and see who I come up with.

"5 cat"

All players projected by Steamer to go at least .275/15/75/75/10:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Bryant, Betts, McCutchen, Correa, Altuve, Braun, Desmond, Odor. Eleven players.

"Thousands of major league plate appearances"

Eliminate those without at least 1500 PA (Bryant and Correa) leaves us with:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Betts, McCutchen, Altuve, Braun, Desmond, Odor. Nine players.

"Durable"

Eliminate Braun because he hasn't played more than 140 games since 2012. Everyone else has played 140+ at least twice in the last three years. We're down to eight:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Betts, McCutchen, Altuve, Desmond, Odor.

Now let's look at their ADPs (via NFBC)

Player Rank

Trout 1

Betts 2

Altuve 4

Goldschmidt 7

Harper 9

Odor 39

Desmond 50

McCutchen 68

 

So best case scenario you could get 4 guys who meet your criteria. Your strategy is good in theory, but it's literally impossible to execute

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reminds me of carl crawford not jennings

speed doesnt slump and hes a lock for 50 bags

i took him 9th over donaldson

 

 

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6 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

reminds me of carl crawford not jennings

speed doesnt slump and hes a lock for 50 bags

i took him 9th over donaldson

 

 

 

No player with 1/2 a season - second half of season - is a lock for something only two people did last year in all of baseball.

 

Speed is not the same as base stealing. The more accurate statement would be is that base stealing does not slump.

 

I do like the Crawford comp.  

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Just now, Magoo said:

 

No player with 1/2 a season - second half of season - is a lock for something only two people did last year in all of baseball.

 

Speed is not the same as base stealing. The more accurate statement would be is that base stealing does not slump.

 

I do like the Crawford comp.  

when you as fast as turner it doesnt matter

but its not like he was successful 84% of the time as a rookie

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Just now, colepenhagen said:

when you as fast as turner it doesnt matter

but its not like he was successful 84% of the time as a rookie

 

Pitchers make adjustments to holding runners as well.  If Turner is a first rounder then you are assuming no pitcher can do anything to adjust to him.  Awfully assumptive no?

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Just now, Magoo said:

 

Pitchers make adjustments to holding runners as well.  If Turner is a first rounder then you are assuming no pitcher can do anything to adjust to him.  Awfully assumptive no?

aside from pitchouts yea hes that fast

 

 

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I don't like how he doesn't seem to walk much and had a .388 BABIP last year.  Yeah he's really fast so his BABIP will be higher than average. but with such lack of discipline, he will need to hit well over .300 to reach 50 SBs.  

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29 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I don't like how he doesn't seem to walk much and had a .388 BABIP last year.  Yeah he's really fast so his BABIP will be higher than average. but with such lack of discipline, he will need to hit well over .300 to reach 50 SBs.  

well he stole 33 in less than half a season...73 games

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3 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Agree in principal, but how many of these guys exist? They're pretty few and far between.

I'm going to use pretty loose definitions for those qualifications you described and see who I come up with.

"5 cat"

All players projected by Steamer to go at least .275/15/75/75/10:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Bryant, Betts, McCutchen, Correa, Altuve, Braun, Desmond, Odor. Eleven players.

"Thousands of major league plate appearances"

Eliminate those without at least 1500 PA (Bryant and Correa) leaves us with:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Betts, McCutchen, Altuve, Braun, Desmond, Odor. Nine players.

"Durable"

Eliminate Braun because he hasn't played more than 140 games since 2012. Everyone else has played 140+ at least twice in the last three years. We're down to eight:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Betts, McCutchen, Altuve, Desmond, Odor.

Now let's look at their ADPs (via NFBC)

Player Rank

Trout 1

Betts 2

Altuve 4

Goldschmidt 7

Harper 9

Odor 39

Desmond 50

McCutchen 68

 

So best case scenario you could get 4 guys who meet your criteria. Your strategy is good in theory, but it's literally impossible to execute

And there went one of those eight.

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3 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Agree in principal, but how many of these guys exist? They're pretty few and far between.

I'm going to use pretty loose definitions for those qualifications you described and see who I come up with.

"5 cat"

All players projected by Steamer to go at least .275/15/75/75/10:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Bryant, Betts, McCutchen, Correa, Altuve, Braun, Desmond, Odor. Eleven players.

"Thousands of major league plate appearances"

Eliminate those without at least 1500 PA (Bryant and Correa) leaves us with:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Betts, McCutchen, Altuve, Braun, Desmond, Odor. Nine players.

"Durable"

Eliminate Braun because he hasn't played more than 140 games since 2012. Everyone else has played 140+ at least twice in the last three years. We're down to eight:

Trout, Harper, Goldie, Betts, McCutchen, Altuve, Desmond, Odor.

Now let's look at their ADPs (via NFBC)

Player Rank

Trout 1

Betts 2

Altuve 4

Goldschmidt 7

Harper 9

Odor 39

Desmond 50

McCutchen 68

 

So best case scenario you could get 4 guys who meet your criteria. Your strategy is good in theory, but it's literally impossible to execute

 

Good post and fair points. 

 

I think im throwing around the "5 cat stud" idiom too loosely. The larger point is, take the safe bat with a larger/safer track record.

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3 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Good post and fair points. 

 

I think im throwing around the "5 cat stud" idiom too loosely. The larger point is, take the safe bat with a larger/safer track record.

I can agree with that, although I think I apply a smaller risk penalty than you. For me, if Turner didn't have the extra risk from a lack of track record he's a no-doubt top 5 pick (likely #2 overall). I have him around 14 or so, so I think that's pricing in the risk.

Compared to you, I'm also more willing to buy into a smaller sample if I dig into the pitch type metrics and things like that (which stabilize much quicker than other metrics - even quicker than metrics like K%).

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3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

aside from pitchouts yea hes that fast

 

I think what makes him so special is the elite speed plus the elite instincts.

it makes me think of someone like Lebron where you think "wait a second... not only is he the most athletic-- he has elite instincts plus high IQ too??"

 

not that he is Lebron or anything-- just... not too often you get the best of both worlds. For every Lebron there are 500 Corey Maggette types who won the genetic lottery but don't have the elite other stuff (intangibles). Yeah, I know you all love that word intangibles ;) 

 

On the base paths, Trea is the whole package. 

 

I mean right off the bat, just in terms of baserunning, you have a Super version of Dee Gordon. Then you throw in the fact that he just OPSed around .940 in his rookie year while lashing lasers all over the ballpark (not to mention awesome reads in center field)... and we are looking at a top 10 player in the game. Already. 

 

I think it's worth mentioning the difference between Turner and, say, Trevor Story or Gary Sanchez. Each tore it up their rookie seasons-- but unproven power guys don't have nearly the same floor as unproven speed guys. Turner's floor is probably Dee Gordon with a bit more pop; Sanchez and Story's floor is the minor leagues. Having said that, I think all three are in for big years-- particularly Trea and Gary. 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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yea would love to see some video of turners CS

hes probable safe 99% the time on non slide steps and watch him with a avg/below avg jump on a pitch out in the video above 1min 29 sec mark

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10 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Why won't he survive? What factors will be so bad that he can't survive?

 

Walk rate, mostly.  Name a successful hitter with 3% walk rate 

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it was 4% last year and will be higher this year

 

crawford, ichiro, dee

 

notice anything about those guys? they are all burners that see lots of  quality strikes because a bb is like a double/triple 

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Walk rate, mostly.  Name a successful hitter with 3% walk rate 

Like @colepenhagen said, basically all of the players Turner comps to fantasy-wise had low walk rates.

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yea as elementary as that sounds  (bb=3b)  it really catches my attention every game

 

1st pitch, fb away almost every time for non power hitters 1st time through the lineup (maybe thats why altuve just smashes)

 

 

i would love to see what fastball% dee gordon received on 1st pitch and what his #'s were on 1st pitch fastball (that he swung at)

or the pitch selection on 1-0 pitches dee receives

would also like to see how many of dees hits came on offspeed (yea not dees thread just trying to gauge leadoff/speed hitters in general)

 

anyways, if trea hit 15 bombs he will produce + value where he is being drafted

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

yea as elementary as that sounds  (bb=3b)  it really catches my attention every game

 

1st pitch, fb away almost every time for non power hitters 1st time through the lineup (maybe thats why altuve just smashes)

 

 

i would love to see what fastball% dee gordon received on 1st pitch and what his #'s were on 1st pitch fastball (that he swung at)

or the pitch selection on 1-0 pitches dee receives

would also like to see how many of dees hits came on offspeed (yea not dees thread just trying to gauge leadoff/speed hitters in general)

 

anyways, if trea hit 15 bombs he will produce + value where he is being drafted

 

 

 

(Including Turner's numbers because this is the Turner thread after all, and league numbers for context.)

Fastball% on 1st pitch:

Dee 66.47%

Trea 57.41%

League 60.72%

 

Swing% on 1st pitch fastballs

Dee 33.48%

Trea 19.35%

League 29.21%

 

Swing% on 1st pitch (all pitch types)

Dee 32.66%

Trea 22.53%

League 28.36%

 

AVG on first-pitch

Dee .382

Trea .356

League .347

 

Fastball% in 1-0 counts

Dee 65.91%

Trea 63.41%

League 59.70%

 

Swing% on 1-0 fastballs

Dee 37.93%

Trea 42.31%

League 43.40%

 

Swing% on all 1-0 pitches

Dee 42.42%

Turner 41.46%

League 41.66%

 

AVG on 1-0 pitches

Dee .300

Trea .500(!)

League .356

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I'm not really counting on a lot of homers or ribbies from Trea. I'm looking at him to provide a good batting avg (I'll take anything over .275) 90+ runs and 40+ SB.

 

i get that, he's worth the investment. If he hits double digit homers I'll take it.

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10 minutes ago, Call me Red said:

I'm not really counting on a lot of homers or ribbies from Trea. I'm looking at him to provide a good batting avg (I'll take anything over .275) 90+ runs and 40+ SB.

 

i get that, he's worth the investment. If he hits double digit homers I'll take it.

 

This. Runs, stolen bases, and a good average. I don't think he will hit any less than 15 homers.

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44 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

This. Runs, stolen bases, and a good average. I don't think he will hit any less than 15 homers.

If you get 15 HR & 50 RBI it's gravy. 

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1 hour ago, Call me Red said:

I'm not really counting on a lot of homers or ribbies from Trea. I'm looking at him to provide a good batting avg (I'll take anything over .275) 90+ runs and 40+ SB.

 

i get that, he's worth the investment. If he hits double digit homers I'll take it.

 

Agreed, less than 10 HR, 275 AVG, and 40 SB. Seems reachable.  But if your expecting this, why not go for Gordon. Or villar.  

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7 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

Agreed, less than 10 HR, 275 AVG, and 40 SB. Seems reachable.  But if your expecting this, why not go for Gordon. Or villar.  

Because I don't think they're in as good a situation as Turner. That, and I think he's going to develop into one of the premier players in baseball. Like I said, I'm willing to take the risk. You don't win/lose your league with your 1st round pick.

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He's Starling Marte with multi-positional eligibility and a whole lot of hype. 

 

Edited by Stats

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