Fuzzy_Slippers

Trea Turner 2017 Outlook

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13 minutes ago, Stats said:

He's Starling Marte with multi-positional eligibility and a whole lot of hype. 

 

 

I'd say he's earned that hype considering he outproduced Marte's third MLB season numbers in roughly half the games played..... as a rookie. 

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Ya'll gonna get burned ala Carlos Correa 2016 1st round selection. No doubt this guy is a phenomenal talent, but he isn't going .315 with 50SB and 20HR. 

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I wouldn't expect those numbers on an adjustment year but I think he's certainly capable. 

 

If we're comping him to Marte-- 

 

Marte's record highs in HR/SB/AVG is 19/47/.311

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3 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

I wouldn't expect those numbers on an adjustment year but I think he's certainly capable. 

 

If we're comping him to Marte-- 

 

Marte's record highs in HR/SB/AVG is 19/47/.311

That's fair, but Marte was also in his 4th year at the MLB level, and only hit 9HR last year. He isn't a 20HR guy (imo). I can see Turner becoming that, but we gotta temper expectations here...  Turner is 23.

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1 minute ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

That's fair, but Marte was also in his 4th year at the MLB level, and only hit 9HR last year. He isn't a 20HR guy (imo). I can see Turner becoming that, but we gotta temper expectations here...  Turner is 23.

 

That's precisely where the hype is coming from. 

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Just now, DannyMcPot said:

 

That's precisely where the hype is coming from. 

No, it's coming from the tiny sample size and "experts" calling him the second coming of Jesus.

The guy had a .388BABIP... 33SB/13HR in 324PA. People are saying he's going to go off and do this again but more in a full season. I say we'll get lucky if he cracks 15HR. He had no power to speak of in the minors.

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37 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

No, it's coming from the tiny sample size and "experts" calling him the second coming of Jesus.

The guy had a .388BABIP... 33SB/13HR in 324PA. People are saying he's going to go off and do this again but more in a full season. I say we'll get lucky if he cracks 15HR. He had no power to speak of in the minors.

 

Yes, my point being-- the fact that he accomplished this at age 23 in just 73 games is why the hype is there. 

 

Saying he had "no power to speak of in the minors" isn't accurate. He was given 40 grades in power on prospect lists and was projected to *eventually* reach double digit HRs annually if he fulfilled his potential. The fact that he accomplished this feat his rookie season shouldn't be a reason to hold it against him. Very similar situation to Lindor's debut. Regression should be factored in for sure but I see no reason he can't easily climb to 15 over a full season as he is such a phenomenal talent. 

 

 

Even with the certain BABIP regression, keep in mind Turner maintained a .399 career minor league BABIP with a 19.4 K% which is pretty remarkable. It's not uncommon for top MLB hitters like Turner to maintain around the .350 range. 

Edited by DannyMcPot

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46 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

No, it's coming from the tiny sample size and "experts" calling him the second coming of Jesus.

The guy had a .388BABIP... 33SB/13HR in 324PA. People are saying he's going to go off and do this again but more in a full season. I say we'll get lucky if he cracks 15HR. He had no power to speak of in the minors.

People aren't drafting Trea Turner for his power, that's just gravy if he hits 15 HR's.

People are drafting him because he looks like one of the top SB's guys this season.

People are comparing his value to where other top SB players are going such as Marte, Villar, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton and would rather reach a bit for Trea considering he probably will help in more categories and will be eligible at SS pretty early on in the season.

 

Is there some risk involved with all of these guys going so early ?   Yes.

But it has more to do with supply and demand.  Speed you can count on is in low supply and typically pushes the value.

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

No, it's coming from the tiny sample size and "experts" calling him the second coming of Jesus.

The guy had a .388BABIP... 33SB/13HR in 324PA. People are saying he's going to go off and do this again but more in a full season. I say we'll get lucky if he cracks 15HR. He had no power to speak of in the minors.

 

I had a draft last night in a league where a good portion of the members frequent this forum and read/post on these threads. Turner went 18th overall. I thought that was an appropriate slot for him. Suffice it to say, not everyone is buying into the idea that Trea is a top 10 player. Conversely, Villar went #44 overall. I don't understand the wide discrepancy. 

Edited by Stats

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4 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

People aren't drafting Trea Turner for his power, that's just gravy if he hits 15 HR's.

People are drafting him because he looks like one of the top SB's guys this season.

People are comparing his value to where other top SB players are going such as Marte, Villar, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton and would rather reach a bit for Trea considering he probably will help in more categories and will be eligible at SS pretty early on in the season.

 

 

He's placed as #12 on FP. You're telling me that's not based on power/speed? People are seeing him as a power/speed guy and I'm saying he's not a power guy. He was very lucky last year. 

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

He was very lucky last year. 

Says you.   I can see 10+ HR's for Turner whose body is still maturing.

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5 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Says you.   I can see 10+ HR's for Turner whose body is still maturing.

I'm taking about 2017. This is from FG:

 Turner sputtered in his initial call-up in 2015, but hit the ground running this year -- literally. Turner swiped 33 bags in a half-season of games, while also hitting .342 with 13 homers. The speed is definitely real, and is backed up by his minor league totals and home-to-first times. Be skeptical of everything else, though. Turner never hit for that much power in college or in the minors and was given 40 future game power by scouts -- the equivalent of 12 homers in a full season at peak. As a speedy, .300 hitter, Turner is an excellent fantasy second baseman, or. He'll likely gain shortstop eligibility this year as well, further adding to his value. But there's a decent chance Turner hits fewer homers in 2017 than he did in limited time last year. That doesn't mean you shouldn't draft him, as he's easily one of the tippy-top middle infielders in baseball. Just don't be that over-eager owner who pays for his 2016 numbers because he sees a shiny new toy. (Chris Mitchell)

The Quick Opinion: Turner established himself as an elite fantasy player in 2016, but he's due for some regression. He's a threat to steal 40+ bases, but may fall short of both .300 and 15 bombs. Still, that's phenomenal for a second baseman and/or shortstop

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8 minutes ago, Stats said:

 

I had a draft last night in a league where a good portion of the members frequent this forum and read/post on these threads. Turner went 18th overall. I thought that was an appropriate slot for him. Suffice it to say, not everyone is buying into the idea that Trea is a top 10 player. Conversely, Villar went #44 overall. I don't understand the wide discrepancy. 

18 is fine for me. For sure. I don't get the Villar thing either. Massively underrated in my leagues. Guess people are afraid of a fluke, but Turner didn't have a flukey year? So weird. 

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3 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

The Quick Opinion: Turner established himself as an elite fantasy player in 2016, but he's due for some regression. He's a threat to steal 40+ bases, but may fall short of both .300 and 15 bombs. Still, that's phenomenal for a second baseman and/or shortstop

Some regression from his .342 batting average,  yes.     Some regression from his 13 HR pace, probably.

 

It's understandable to be cautious with a small sample size but unless you think he's going to completely flop in terms of getting on base,  his SB's and R's should be elite levels.  And he will be hitting in a very good lineup where the pressure should be at a minimum with those veteran players and allow Turner to do his thing.

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5 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Some regression from his .342 batting average,  yes.     Some regression from his 13 HR pace, probably.

 

It's understandable to be cautious with a small sample size but unless you think he's going to completely flop in terms of getting on base,  his SB's and R's should be elite levels.  And he will be hitting in a very good lineup where the pressure should be at a minimum with those veteran players and allow Turner to do his thing.

So you're saying he's a 12th pick? Or do you think that's a bit much? I think it's a bit much. 

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

So you're saying he's a 12th pick? Or do you think that's a bit much? I think it's a bit much. 

I think everybody reaches for speed somewhere and for me it comes down to which player in which round I would prefer to reach for considering everything.

I would have no problem drafting him at 12 and concentrate on other areas after that knowing I covered SS as well.

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I don't think 12th is crazy if you're expecting 100/10+/40+/.285+ at 2B/SS/OF

Edited by DannyMcPot

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4 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

I don't think 12th is crazy if you're expecting 100/10+/40+/.285+ at 2B/SS/OF

Yet Villar isn't a first rounder. 

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For me, 12 is pushing it a bit. I would be comfortable drafting him any time after 15-16.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Yet Villar isn't a first rounder. 

I don't think anybody expects him to hit for the same batting average.  But I do think he will hit more HR's and out produce his ADP as well because that Milwaukee lineup is going to be better I think.  I think he may go in the top 24 picks and wouldn't be so sure I could get him with my third round pick.

 

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3 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

For me, 12 is pushing it a bit. I would be comfortable drafting him any time after 15-16.

The problem with being comfortable at 15-16 means you really aren't going to get him in most drafts and will have to look elsewhere for SB's.

Nobody wants to draft speed before they need to but you most likely will have to somewhere.

 

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2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Ya'll gonna get burned ala Carlos Correa 2016 1st round selection. No doubt this guy is a phenomenal talent, but he isn't going .315 with 50SB and 20HR. 

I agree with you once the pitchers know his weakness, he will not have as good a year, to me he's a late 2nd early 3rd rd.

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4 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I agree with you once the pitchers know his weakness, he will not have as good a year, to me he's a late 2nd early 3rd rd.

That's assuming he has weaknesses that can stop him from getting on base doesn't it ?

His minor league numbers indicate he should be able to hit for a good batting average after being drafted in the first round.  His pedigree is good.

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7 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

That's assuming he has weaknesses that can stop him from getting on base doesn't it ?

His minor league numbers indicate he should be able to hit for a good batting average after being drafted in the first round.  His pedigree is good.

Every player has a weakness. 

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15 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

The problem with being comfortable at 15-16 means you really aren't going to get him in most drafts and will have to look elsewhere for SB's.

Nobody wants to draft speed before they need to but you most likely will have to somewhere.

 

Jarrod Dyson, Rajai Davis. Those are two names of guys who will steal you 30 bases without a 1st round price tag.

 

If someone is drafting Turner in round 1 because you think he's going to score runs and steal bases, that's silly. Grab Villar later and get 40sb and 10hr with a comparable average. 

 

There is too much emphasis on speed here. I get it. It's a premium. But it's also available elsewhere much later. 12th overall for a small sample size is silly. 

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