Fuzzy_Slippers

Trea Turner 2017 Outlook

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Every player has a weakness. 

If you mean they won't bat 1.000,  I guess that's true.

 

But if we are talking about reasonableness of what numbers we can expect from this young player, you are going to keep winning on your small sample size assertion until he no longer has a small sample size.

 

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25 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

The problem with being comfortable at 15-16 means you really aren't going to get him in most drafts and will have to look elsewhere for SB's.

Nobody wants to draft speed before they need to but you most likely will have to somewhere.

 

 

I play points leagues. I would more than likely draft Cabrera or Votto at #12. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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Not only that, the low walk rate is, I think, more a result of pitchers coming at him to avoid the walk. He walked just fine in the lower levels when guys couldn't hit their spots. If pitchers nibble too much against him, they risk giving him a free pass and with his SB success rate, one ensuing single might very well be enough to get him home. The easy call is to attack the strike zone, right? Even if he has a weakness for outside junk or high heat, how cute do you get trying to get him to bite? Then, the easy adjustment is to not swing at that stuff. I think the bottom line is that his speed causes problems and it's not going to be easy for other teams to negate him unless he has some secret terribly large weakness, which you'd think would've been exploited already.

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3 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

If you mean they won't bat 1.000,  I guess that's true.

 

But if we are talking about reasonableness of what numbers we can expect from this young player, you are going to keep winning on your small sample size assertion until he no longer has a small sample size.

 

Well yeah. 

 

I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm not denying the talent. I think he's incredible, all around. He's going to be something else for years. 

But my issue is that people are taking him at 12 because they think he's going to go 15+hr, 100r, 40+SB, .300+. Which is nuts. He might, but I'd guess he won't. 

And so, at 12, you could net a reliable player with good stats and grab Villar next, or Segura or someone who will get close to the SB/HR totals. Heck, Broxton might have a terrible BA and go 10/40. 

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I liked his comp to Correa who had better numbers when called up for half a season than last year, Turner fits that same mold to me. A lot of talented rookies who get called up really shine in a short preiod of time but when put through a full season regress. He could be Correa or he could be Trout, Harper or Bryant who didn't regress. Time will tell.

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Just now, Hanghow said:

 Even if he has a weakness for outside junk or high heat, how cute do you get trying to get him to bite? Then, the easy adjustment is to not swing at that stuff. 

Well if you're a MLB pitcher I'm sure you'll be able to exploit it. Mike Trout had a problem with high fastballs before. Lots of guys have holes. 

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@BlueJaysIn2030 So, where do you think Trea should go? I mean, if you think 18 is okay, why is 12 a big deal? Some people like him more than other, zomg. Unless you think he shouldn't be a top 20 player, then I think you're just being a hater. 

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1 minute ago, MugsyBogues said:

@BlueJaysIn2030 So, where do you think Trea should go? I mean, if you think 18 is okay, why is 12 a big deal? Some people like him more than other, zomg. Unless you think he shouldn't be a top 20 player, then I think you're just being a hater. 

There's a big difference between 12 and 18. 12 you're still in 1st rounder territory. 

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I see BlueJays point on waiting for Villar considering he's receiving a healthy dose of skepticism after exploding after three years of being off the radar and bouncing between the minors and majors. Whereas Turner is the hot new prospect who immediately produced at an absurd pace. If you believe in Villar to repeat, you're getting him at a discount considering where he's being drafted. But the hype Turner is getting is for very good reason and you could possibly be kicking yourself for passing on him. 

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8 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

And so, at 12, you could net a reliable player with good stats and grab Villar next, or Segura or someone who will get close to the SB/HR totals. Heck, Broxton might have a terrible BA and go 10/40. 

I would agree grab one of these guys if you miss out on Turner but it depends on where you can get these guys who tend to get pushed higher than their ADP ususally.  Keon Broxton is being drafted in FantasyPros in the fifth round currently.  Jose Peraza is no longer a secret.

 

If you count on getting somebody late,  that's a very good strategy.

If you can get Trea Turner at 18, more power to you.

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4 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

There's a big difference between 12 and 18. 12 you're still in 1st rounder territory. 

I mean if my draft placement is around the turn. I think counting on getting villar on the 2nd turn (So pick 35-36 in 12 teamer) is real risky. So I don't agree with your thoughts on that at all. You kinda have to get YOUR guys at the ends. IMO

Edited by Slatykamora

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5 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

If someone is drafting Turner in round 1 because you think he's going to score runs and steal bases, that's silly. Grab Villar later and get 40sb and 10hr with a comparable average. 

 

Easier said than done. The last few drafts I have done (12-teamer), Villar has has been drafted at the end of the 2nd. That's a really steep price for a guy with a dubious track record. 

 

In general, I think the push for steals is getting a little out of hand - especially in H2H formats. If everyone else is clamoring for these guys and driving up the price, I will look for value elsewhere and build my team in a way to dominate other categories. 

 

I'm also not sure if last year's power surge will continue. Even a modest decline and suddenly the relative value of home runs increase. 

 

It is interesting though - the infieldiers, Villar, Turner, and Segura have shot up in ADP, but I have seen a guy like Marte fall to THE early third. Recently, I've seen Marte make it to the third more than I have Villar. I'd rather build steals by targeting a bunch of ~20/20 guys and 30-35 SB guys than overpay in the early rounds for one of the SB monsters. 

 

I would ultimately take Turner after ~14, but don't like the risk any earlier. 

 

Edited by Rainyy

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4 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

Easier said than done. The last few drafts I have done (12-teamer), Villar has has been drafted at the end of the 2nd. That's a really steep price for a guy with a dubious track record.

 

And Turner also doesn't have a great track record - he has less than one full season of ABs. It's the same sort of problem. But again, this is more of an issue with taking him at 12. 

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27 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

I mean if my draft placement is around the turn. I think counting on getting villar on the 2nd turn (So pick 35-36 in 12 teamer) is real risky. So I don't agree with your thoughts on that at all. You kinda have to get YOUR guys at the ends. IMO

Jean Segura. Keon Broxton. Hernan Perez. Rajai Davis.

 

There are some guys who could do the same crap as 10/40

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4 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

I would agree grab one of these guys if you miss out on Turner but it depends on where you can get these guys who tend to get pushed higher than their ADP ususally.  Keon Broxton is being drafted in FantasyPros in the fifth round currently.  Jose Peraza is no longer a secret.

 

If you count on getting somebody late,  that's a very good strategy.

If you can get Trea Turner at 18, more power to you.

Jose Peraza is not going to hit 10HR and steal 40 bases though. So I don't know why you're mentioning him.

Hell guys, Nunez went 16/40 last year. 10/40 isn't some exclusive club. Even if you get a guy like Dyson to steal 30 bases and grab some cheap power on the WW, you have a net gain. That allows you to get a real stud, a lock, at pick 12.

 

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6 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

18 is fine for me. For sure. I don't get the Villar thing either. Massively underrated in my leagues. Guess people are afraid of a fluke, but Turner didn't have a flukey year? So weird. 

 

Villar failed miserably his first couple of times being called up, so much so that the Astros (a good organization) completely gave up on him as a prospect and shipped him off to Milwaukee.   I believe in Turner but definitely not Villar, the latter is much more likely to regress in everything except for stolen bases.   Real photo of Villar and his base running skills:  :-)

JonathanVillar1a.jpg

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1 minute ago, BBWeekly said:

 

Villar failed miserably his first couple of times being called up, so much so that the Astros (a good organization) completely gave up on him as a prospect and shipped him off to Milwaukee.   I believe in Turner but definitely not Villar, the latter is much more likely to regress in everything except for stolen bases.   Real photo of Villar and his base running skills:  :-)

JonathanVillar1a.jpg

I'll fake you bet you 10 internet dollars that Villar finishes higher than Trea Turner on the ESPN and Yahoo player raters.

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58 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Jose Peraza is not going to hit 10HR and steal 40 bases though. So I don't know why you're mentioning him.

Hell guys, Nunez went 16/40 last year. 10/40 isn't some exclusive club. Even if you get a guy like Dyson to steal 30 bases and grab some cheap power on the WW, you have a net gain. That allows you to get a real stud, a lock, at pick 12.

 

Hey you are going to do what you feel comfortable doing.  But you asked me if I thought he was worth a top 12 pick and I answered yes.

Everybody else will have to grab somebody else.  But there is a growing consensus that has his ADP is higher than your projections.

 

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1 minute ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Hey you are going to do what you feel comfortable doing.  But you asked me if I thought he was worth a top 12 pick and I answered yes.

Everybody else will have to grab somebody else.  But there is a growing consensus that has his ADP is higher than your projections.

 

This is my issue... it's been my issue the entire time. This is Carlos Correa hype level.

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

This is my issue... it's been my issue the entire time. This is Carlos Correa hype level.

Correa was expected to hit for more power which is harder to predict with players.  I think speed is easier to predict.

I still think he and Corey Seager are probably getting drafted earlier than I would grab them because there are more SS's hitting this years market.

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1 hour ago, BBWeekly said:

 

Villar failed miserably his first couple of times being called up, so much so that the Astros (a good organization) completely gave up on him as a prospect and shipped him off to Milwaukee.   I believe in Turner but definitely not Villar, the latter is much more likely to regress in everything except for stolen bases.   Real photo of Villar and his base running skills:  :-)

JonathanVillar1a.jpg

I won't rehash the pro-Villar argument here (I wrote a behemoth about it in his thread), but I will say this:

Believing Villar is undervalued (as I do and it seems @BlueJaysIn2030 does) doesn't have anything to do with how Turner is valued. I have Villar as a late-second, early third round player. Turner is essentially a better version of Villar (less of a K problem for AVG, better lineup), so it makes sense for him to be early-2nd rounder

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2 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Correa was expected to hit for more power which is harder to predict with players.  I think speed is easier to predict.

I still think he and Corey Seager are probably getting drafted earlier than I would grab them because there are more SS's hitting this years market.

Actually steals is the hardest stat to get a solid projection on. IMO  Its easy in the sense of knowing which guys are true plus plus speeders..but that isn't any harder to tell than to telll who the plus plus power guys are..

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5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Actually steals is the hardest stat to get a solid projection on. IMO  Its easy in the sense of knowing which guys are true plus plus speeders..but that isn't any harder to tell than to telll who the plus plus power guys are..

Well that's true but plus plus speed is more likely to translate to plus plus SB (see: Hamilton) than plus plus power is to translate to plus plus HR (see: Gallo, for just a recent example)

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2 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Well that's true but plus plus speed is more likely to translate to plus plus SB (see: Hamilton) than plus plus power is to translate to plus plus HR (see: Gallo, for just a recent example)

I agree in the sense translating Power is harder than stealing bases for prospects. Its just a very very hard thing to count on year to year to project.. No one has Hamilton's equal in power as he is to speed. Closest would be Stanton who's still good for 20+ HRs even when he gets hurt.

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