Trea Turner 2017 Outlook

[Brooklyn Dude 362]

5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Actually steals is the hardest stat to get a solid projection on. IMO  Its easy in the sense of knowing which guys are true plus plus speeders..but that isn't any harder to tell than to telll who the plus plus power guys are..

Altuve has 5 years of 30+ SB's.  Billy Hamilton has 3 years of 50+ SB's.  Dee Gordon has 2 years of 55+ when he has over 600 AB's.  Starling Marte has 4 years over 30+ SB's.  All plus plus types going early.  But I think these guys are in shorter supply than the HR hitter types which makes their value go sky high.

 

If Trea Turner pops 15 HR's and hits above .300,  I think he will also get 100 R's and 40+ SB's which would look like Jose Altuve's 2015 season., minus a few RBI's maybe.  

 

 

[The Big Bat Theory 6,316]

On 3/12/2017 at 8:19 AM, Stats said:

I see where you are coming from. Part of the reason, I believe, I have a such a lag in my appreciation for Turner is the discrepancy between what he was projected to be as a prospect and where he is now, as a fantasy commodity. I missed out on him in all of my keeper leagues because although he was portended to be very good, he was dwarfed in hype by the likes of Seager, Buxton, Moncada and a couple of others. I saw him more as a speedy middle infielder who had some pop. His jump to the major leagues certainly didn't suppress his ceiling in the way that I thought it would. So some part of me is sour grapes watching others reap the rewards of his success. I'll get over it, maybe.....

Thanks! 

Mookie wasn't hyped either.  Reality doesn't equal hype.  Reality equals performance given.

[Magoo 1,094]

4 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Altuve has 5 years of 30+ SB's.  Billy Hamilton has 3 years of 50+ SB's.  Dee Gordon has 2 years of 55+ when he has over 600 AB's.  Starling Marte has 4 years over 30+ SB's.  All plus plus types going early.  But I think these guys are in shorter supply than the HR hitter types which makes their value go sky high.

 

If Trea Turner pops 15 HR's and hits above .300,  I think he will also get 100 R's and 40+ SB's which would look like Jose Altuve's 2015 season., minus a few RBI's maybe.  

 

 

http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/flowers/37717/rays-ramblings-trea-turner-projections-2017/

[Slatykamora 2,587]

5 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Altuve has 5 years of 30+ SB's.  Billy Hamilton has 3 years of 50+ SB's.  Dee Gordon has 2 years of 55+ when he has over 600 AB's.  Starling Marte has 4 years over 30+ SB's.  All plus plus types going early.  But I think these guys are in shorter supply than the HR hitter types which makes their value go sky high.

 

If Trea Turner pops 15 HR's and hits above .300,  I think he will also get 100 R's and 40+ SB's which would look like Jose Altuve's 2015 season., minus a few RBI's maybe.  

 

 

Yeah just like Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, E.E., Stanton have been consistant in over 20+ HRs

Edited March 16, 2017 by Slatykamora

[jfazz23 2,341]

1 hour ago, Magoo said:

http://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/flowers/37717/rays-ramblings-trea-turner-projections-2017/

so this guy doesnt think turner will hit 15 homeruns in 150 games even though he hit 13 in 70 games?

 

and his reasoning is that very few have done it in the last 15 or so years?  sometimes good players are just good. 

Edited March 16, 2017 by jfazz23

[colepenhagen 3,157]

yea his argument is pretty weak

 

how many guys stole 47 bags? three and of those three how many have any type of power one (marte)

so no wonder no one reached that line

 

he makes it seem impossible for a 15 hr 45 bag type line just because it hasnt happened but not to many players with the skill set of trea(i do agree his rbis will likely be lower) 

 

hes a faster, prime c gomez with less power (fantasy wise)

Edited March 16, 2017 by colepenhagen

[Slatykamora 2,587]

6 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

so this guy doesnt think turner will hit 15 homeruns in 150 games even though he hit 13 in 70 games?

 

and his reasoning is that very few have done it in the last 15 or so years?  sometimes good players are just good. 

Springer hit 20 his rookie year in 345 PA.. Only 16 next year in 451 PA

Correa hit 22 his rookie year in 432 PA...Only 20 next year in 660 PAs

Lindor hit 12 his rookie year in 438 PA...Only 15 next year in 684 PAs

 

Just some examples of very talented hitters who regressed in terms of HR per game from their great mid-season call up rookie year.  

[jfazz23 2,341]

5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Springer hit 20 his rookie year in 345 PA.. Only 16 next year in 451 PA

Correa hit 22 his rookie year in 432 PA...Only 20 next year in 660 PAs

Lindor hit 12 his rookie year in 438 PA...Only 15 next year in 684 PAs

 

Just some examples of very talented hitters who regressed in terms of HR per game from their great mid-season call up rookie year.  

not saying it doesnt happen, but hes not citing any reason like crazy high babip or unsustainable hr/fly ball rate.

 

hes just saying it wont happen because it doesnt happen often...which i dont buy.

 

i could easily say, well might trout hit 220 in his first 150 at bats or so, then hit 320 30 homers 49 sb the next year, so turner will do the same.  this is also flawed...

Edited March 16, 2017 by jfazz23

[colepenhagen 3,157]

stubbs showed little power in minors 3 hr in 100 AAA games and then smacked 8 hr in 48 games then 19, 22, 15, 14 while swiping 40 bags

 

trea is alot better than stubbs

Edited March 16, 2017 by colepenhagen

[jfazz23 2,341]

13 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Springer hit 20 his rookie year in 345 PA.. Only 16 next year in 451 PA

Correa hit 22 his rookie year in 432 PA...Only 20 next year in 660 PAs

Lindor hit 12 his rookie year in 438 PA...Only 15 next year in 684 PAs

 

Just some examples of very talented hitters who regressed in terms of HR per game from their great mid-season call up rookie year.  

its a non sequitur argument is what im saying, and thus, invalid

 

some sophmore players slump

trea turner is a sophmore

trea turner will slump

 

"it does not follow"

Edited March 16, 2017 by jfazz23

[Slatykamora 2,587]

40 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

its a non sequitur argument is what im saying, and thus, invalid

 

some sophmore players slump

trea turner is a sophmore

trea turner will slump

 

"it does not follow"

Fair enough... But it is legit to not trust the first year stats as his true talent.  Given his power grades were never that high. 

[jfazz23 2,341]

1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

Fair enough... But it is legit to not trust the first year stats as his true talent.  Given his power grades were never that high. 

guess thats up to the buyer.  im not taking him at 9 or 10 if i can get donaldson,machado,harper...but if i get a power bat in the first and hes there at 14-18 id be willing to take the risk.

 

power comes late for some people, and some players are just better at hitting homeruns in the bigs vs minors.

gary sanchez was on a 60 homer pace and never did that in the minors for example. im sure there are examples for both sides of the argument though

[mysonx3 3,674]

1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

Yeah just like Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, E.E., Stanton have been consistant in over 20+ HRs

20+ HR and 30+ SB are far from equivalent

1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

how many guys stole 47 bags? three and of those three how many have any type of power one (marte)

Villar?

1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

its a non sequitur argument is what im saying, and thus, invalid

 

some sophmore players slump

trea turner is a sophmore

trea turner will slump

 

"it does not follow"

Ok, I'm being super nit-picky here so hopefully I don't come across as a jerk, but technically the conclusion (not the argument) is non sequitur, and it's non sequitur because the argument is invalid, not vice versa. Ok, sorry, I'll stop being the formal logic terminology police now.

Edited March 16, 2017 by mysonx3

[jfazz23 2,341]

5 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

20+ HR and 30+ SB are far from equivalent

Villar?

Ok, I'm being super nit-picky here so hopefully I don't come across as a jerk, but technically the conclusion (not the argument) is non sequitur, and it's non sequitur because it's invalid, not vice versa. Ok, sorry, I'll stop being the formal logic terminology police now.

not awake enough to argue but ok.  either way its not solid logic to assume turner will slump because hes a sophomore, and many sophomore slump

 

i still believe thats non seq but i could be wrong, dont care either way....ill take treat turner lol

 

also spelled "sophmore" wrong....you missed that one!!!!ha

Edited March 16, 2017 by jfazz23

[mysonx3 3,674]

3 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

not awake enough to argue but ok.  either way its not solid logic to assume turner will slump because hes a sophomore, and many sophomore slump

 

i still believe thats non seq but i could be wrong, dont care either way....ill take treat turner lol

Yeah you're correct about the conclusion not following (aka non sequitur), you just flipped the description of the argument (invalid) and conclusion (non sequitur). It's just a terminology nit I for some reason felt the need to pick (I'm going to go your route and plead tiredness). Carry on. Sorry.

Edited March 16, 2017 by mysonx3

[colepenhagen 3,157]

ha thx... nice one my mistake... eyes moving faster than my brain 

 

villar 19 hrs and marte have the power to match the 15/45

 

but the point i was trying to make is if only 4-5 people swipe 47 bags

then there is a slim to no chance in hell they hit 15+ hrs

 

nice to see villar get to that 15/47 number last year as a non superstar, post hype sleeper

 

Assuming 550 abs

 

I do not expect Turner to hit .300 (safe number at 300 for a rookie i say over 287 which has no affect on me drafting this kid) 287-300 will not make me change my pick
I do not expect Turner to hit more than about 15 homers. Wrong
I do not expect Turner to reach 70 RBI. dont care (would bet on under, NL lead off  makes sense) 
I do not expect Turner to reach 90 runs. Wrong 
I do not expect Turner to steal 45 bases. Wrong

 

[colepenhagen 3,157]

yea turner isnt a rookie... gottcha

 

 

[Rho 40]

i normally don't pay too much attention to spring stats, but for a young guy like turner i give it a little credit. he's been dreadful this spring....i'm a little concerned

[CraftyRighty 299]

Find it hard to believe folks think Turner will hit 20 HR's this year

 

 

Based on his track record, his swing, and the pitcher he hit HR's off of last year 15 is best case scenario. By no means am I arguing he is not a stud, dude is awesome but I have read that some folks are talking 20-25 HR's and that is nuts IMO

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,672]

I would say 

25 minutes ago, CraftyRighty said:

Find it hard to believe folks think Turner will hit 20 HR's this year

 

 

Based on his track record, his swing, and the pitcher he hit HR's off of last year 15 is best case scenario. By no means am I arguing he is not a stud, dude is awesome but I have read that some folks are talking 20-25 HR's and that is nuts IMO

 

15 is about right. I don't see him hitting any less than ~12.

[cdd10 847]

On ‎3‎/‎16‎/‎2017 at 4:02 PM, Rho said:

i normally don't pay too much attention to spring stats, but for a young guy like turner i give it a little credit. he's been dreadful this spring....i'm a little concerned

I wouldn't expect a .300 average

[peelpub94 142]

This guy is certainly getting the 2016 Carlos Correa treatment. 

[bluejays95 54]

2 hours ago, peelpub94 said:

This guy is certainly getting the 2016 Carlos Correa treatment. 

 

Correa was being drafted last year around 6th overall IIRC. Turner should be drafted around early-mid 2nd round.

 

If Turner returns a 2016 Correa value of say 90/10/65/40/.280 , would that really be the end of the world? Project him for as little HR as you want, but even if this guy only bats .270-280, he's still going to approach 40SBs with a plethora of runs. 

 

I don't think Turner will be a pick that sinks your team. If you pair him with a power bat from the first, at the very least you could average a 20/20 over your first two picks which can definitely be recovered from. 

[peelpub94 142]

Not what I meant. I'm just seeing a lot of what are likely over projections that will probably turn into a lot of disappointed managers.

Edited March 24, 2017 by peelpub94

[BlueJaysIn2030 1,977]

32 minutes ago, bluejays95 said:

 

Correa was being drafted last year around 6th overall IIRC. Turner should be drafted around early-mid 2nd round.

 

If Turner returns a 2016 Correa value of say 90/10/65/40/.280 , would that really be the end of the world? Project him for as little HR as you want, but even if this guy only bats .270-280, he's still going to approach 40SBs with a plethora of runs. 

 

I don't think Turner will be a pick that sinks your team. If you pair him with a power bat from the first, at the very least you could average a 20/20 over your first two picks which can definitely be recovered from. 

ADP right now according to FantasyPros is sitting at #14. Pretty early in most league, imo.