Wild Thing

Jay Bruce 2017 Outlook

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he was putrid with the Mets...just dont think he is made for big market....if he lands in a nice spot I'll be looking to grab him at a discount.  

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Hard pass for me. Not worth the risk. Spent his career in one of the best hitter parks in the league. Now in a pitcher's park and was horrible on the Mets after his 2016 resurgence.

 

109 v 92, home v road OPS+ split in his career. 

 

He is typically low average, high power output guy. Now that he's out of the Great American Smallpark and in a large pitcher stadium, I don't know if that will mix well. 

 

If he falls in the draft, he might be with a gamble, but not at face value IMO.

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I've been listening to the NY sports radio hosts crucify Bruce for weeks now. It makes me wonder, didn't they ever watch him play before April-July of 2016? His August with the Mets was horrific, but it was hardly unprecedented. In fact, it would have been surprising if he had pulled up stakes and moved to NY without disrupting the best streak of his career. It seems to have escaped their notice that he did right the ship a bit in September by batting .250 with 6 homers and .321 OBP.

 

I don't know which Jay Bruce will show up in spring training or on opening day, but aside from the larger park resulting in a few lost homers I think Bruce will be exactly who's always been next season.

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On 12/20/2016 at 8:50 AM, StevieStats said:

Hard pass for me. Not worth the risk. Spent his career in one of the best hitter parks in the league. Now in a pitcher's park and was horrible on the Mets after his 2016 resurgence.

 

109 v 92, home v road OPS+ split in his career. 

 

He is typically low average, high power output guy. Now that he's out of the Great American Smallpark and in a large pitcher stadium, I don't know if that will mix well. 

 

If he falls in the draft, he might be with a gamble, but not at face value IMO.

 

Yeah, I'm not too interested. 

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On 20-12-2016 at 5:17 PM, Big Tuna said:

he was putrid with the Mets...just dont think he is made for big market....if he lands in a nice spot I'll be looking to grab him at a discount.  

 

It wasn't just the big market. Before he got traded to the Mets, he was batting a ridiculous .360 with RISP. That's why he had 80 RBI. This is a player who has never hit over .290 with RISP in a single season and has a career avg of .248 with RISP. He was going to regress and he did. 

 

 

 

 

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If he comes at the right price Im in, he's not going to be happy with all the talk about him this off season from fans and the MLB teams. I like a player with a chip on his shoulder who did do great things last year (and bad things)

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Feels like he could be out of baseball soon. Not saying it will happen, but it has that feel to it. 

 

It could come swiftly. 

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16 hours ago, BayofPuigs said:

If he comes at the right price Im in, he's not going to be happy with all the talk about him this off season from fans and the MLB teams. I like a player with a chip on his shoulder who did do great things last year (and bad things)

 

Problem with this, and I know you're not trying to imply it, but it's not as simple as wanting to do better and then just being better.


My problem with Bruce is that you can point to a specific portion of his game and there's a really good Fangraphs article on it-- the outside third of the plate. Bruce's drop off in performance over the past few years has come from him being very poor on pitches on the outside third. For some reason, during his hot streak at the start of 2016, this wasn't an issue for him. 

 

It just seems like there's a book out on Jay Bruce... and it's a really really good one.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mets-didnt-get-the-jay-bruce-they-traded-for/

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10 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

taking grounders at 1B

 

Eek. The Reds tried this for a few games back when Votto was injured a couple years ago. It was not pretty. I don't think he really was given a fair shot though, Jay is pretty athletic and a very hard worker. The only way it works out is if the Mets commit to it and actually have him work at it for a while instead of just taking some groundballs and coverage assignment drills here and there. 

 

Nothing like the "just stick the less athletic guy at 1B, it can't be that hard"

Moneyball_0i273w63.gif

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10 hours ago, BleedRedsRed said:

Nothing like the "just stick the less athletic guy at 1B, it can't be that hard"

It's not really challenging from an athletic standpoint, just from a learning how to do it standpoint.

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Guy was the model of consistency for his first four full seasons, averaging 86 runs, 150 hits, 33 homers, 94 RBI, and a .262/.337/.490 triple slash. He got hurt (including a mid-season knee scope) and had an off year, and then promptly returned to form in 2016 with 74 runs, 135 hits, 33 homers, 99 RBI and a .250/.309/.506 line. Irrefutable unless you live in an "alternative facts" world like some people. Unfortunately I do think his best days are behind him, and the transition to New York clearly was not an easy one, but for the right price he could be a bargain and pleasantly surprise in later rounds. 

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1 hour ago, amcsoldier said:

Guy was the model of consistency for his first four full seasons, averaging 86 runs, 150 hits, 33 homers, 94 RBI, and a .262/.337/.490 triple slash. He got hurt (including a mid-season knee scope) and had an off year, and then promptly returned to form in 2016 with 74 runs, 135 hits, 33 homers, 99 RBI and a .250/.309/.506 line. Irrefutable unless you live in an "alternative facts" world like some people. Unfortunately I do think his best days are behind him, and the transition to New York clearly was not an easy one, but for the right price he could be a bargain and pleasantly surprise in later rounds. 

 

Like the "alternative" fact that he had "an off year" when he had two?

 

Idk, my problem with Bruce is the same I listed above: there is a direct hole so to speak or area of the strikezone that Bruce has consistently performed poorly in 2.5 of the last 3 years. If he maintained even some of the fix after he went to the Mets that'd be one thing, but I worry that that's just who he is. And if all pitchers have to do is "pepper him low and away with fastballs" as the above article mentions, that's just a really easy way to abuse a hitter. 

 

Just to link it twice on the page: 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mets-didnt-get-the-jay-bruce-they-traded-for/

I mean just look at the gifs of that AB: Low fastball barely in teh zone, fouls it off, then low and away, and then away, and the last two he just whiffs at kind of comically. If they just pitch him outside with fastballs he does nothing. Here's another more recent article on his mechanics that got a little off after his knee surgery:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/everything-you-need-to-know-about-jay-bruce/

 

It also addresses the lack of oppo power... last year he did hit more oppo but I believe it was mostly during that short period of time where things just worked before going back to what he's done over the last two years. Out of his 44 HRs between 2014-2015, Bruce hit zero HRs to Left Field and one HR to Left-Center. Just the year before he had 6 to Left-Center. He's obviously always been more of a pull power guy but a complete lack of drive is a problem. 

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11 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Like the "alternative" fact that he had "an off year" when he had two?

 

 

Poor writing on my part - that meant to read "he got hurt and then had an off year."  For four years he was quite reliable, and then started to waver. Some of that was the injury, some of it was decline or perhaps exposure of the holes in his swing you described. But then, in 2016, he was back at his old numbers again. What happens in 2017? Probably somewhere in the middle. I don't see him improving on 2016 numbers but "rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated."

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3 minutes ago, amcsoldier said:

 

Poor writing on my part - that meant to read "he got hurt and then had an off year."  For four years he was quite reliable, and then started to waver. Some of that was the injury, some of it was decline or perhaps exposure of the holes in his swing you described. But then, in 2016, he was back at his old numbers again. What happens in 2017? Probably somewhere in the middle. I don't see him improving on 2016 numbers but "rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated."

 

Maybe, I'm just not confident that he isn't exactly who he was in 2015 and 2016 had a single flash of a return to form that was more like something burning bright before it blows out then a sign of things to come. Mechanical adjustment could happen, but it hasn't happened, and that's my primary concern. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Maybe, I'm just not confident that he isn't exactly who he was in 2015 and 2016 had a single flash of a return to form that was more like something burning bright before it blows out then a sign of things to come. Mechanical adjustment could happen, but it hasn't happened, and that's my primary concern. 

 

Certainly possible. On one hand, we've got 5 years of steady, consistent production. On the other hand, we've got 2 years of poor production. It's up to us to weigh them and make a guess as to 2017.

 

Me, I tend to downplay his 2014 performance due to the knee issues, but 2015 absolutely was a bad year - and I'm confident that the problems you've identified are a factor. 

 

But on the balance, I think the "real" Bruce is closer to 2016's numbers than 2015's. It seems he won't ever live up to his top prospect billing, but even if you take 10-15% off his 2016 numbers, you're not getting screwed at pick 193 (where he's currently going, per NFBC).Reasonable minds can differ and there's risk here, but that's true of most guys around pick 200.

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4 minutes ago, amcsoldier said:

 

Certainly possible. On one hand, we've got 5 years of steady, consistent production. On the other hand, we've got 2 years of poor production. It's up to us to weigh them and make a guess as to 2017.

 

Yeah, but I'm always going to way the past three years more heavily than 2009-2013

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His RBIs were greatly inflated by having the luxury of batting behind Joey Votto and playing in a great hittesr park. Also has Conforto breathing down his neck. 

 

I am avoiding him at all costs. 

 

Edited by Purple Hippo

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Tough crowd.  Still had an xBA of .264 in the 2nd half.  Getting AB's as a 1b.  Still has 30hr power.  I'll take it

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I'm surprised this guy doesn't get more "bust" recognition. He was a big time prospect destined for greatness, then settled into merely a 3-win player in his prime. 

 

With the move away from one of the better hitter parks in the league, to one of the worst, he's nothing more than a last round flier in standard yahoo leagues.

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Nice little write up here and I must say if Bruce can approach the 50% FB% wow, watch out, he may approach 40 HR easily.

 

BRUCE

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