taobball

Justin Verlander 2017 Outlook

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FWIW, Regression is a move toward the mean of a particular stat or skill based on the its relationship to other variables. Regress doesn't mean get worse. Bryce Harper will likely see regression in his batting average and improve by 40 points. Justin Verlander arguably regressed last season with a return of his K/9 rate and then saw further improvement. Regression toward the mean in babip or strand rate will likely raise his ERA but if his HR/9 regresses to the his established mean his ERA will likely be stable. Babip and strand rates are, in most cases, dependent on other variables like team defense and park factors which a pitcher can't control so their regression is largely separate from pitching skills. Some pitchers have exhibited an ability to limit hits (Marco Estrada) so his regression will be different that others. If Verlander has developed a new skill to repress hits then adjustments have to be made to his projection. 

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He's yours guys... I'm staying far, far away!

Edited by exm

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Great start out there for Verlander. Bad team but the whiffs were great, the fastball was live, and he executed brilliantly at times. He looks very much like last year Verly

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

Great start out there for Verlander. Bad team but the whiffs were great, the fastball was live, and he executed brilliantly at times. He looks very much like last year Verly

Was just about to post on JV. No love around here, 1st time owner but I know he was pretty great last year and was able to what I'm hoping was draft a top 10 starter at a significant discount just because he's been around a while.

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Hoping for more length in his starts from here on out like the JV we're used to seeing

Edited by borindia

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Listening to the Tigers' radio broadcast, they were raving about the movement on his fastball breaking in over the inside corner on lefties, like they've never seen that kind of action to that degree from his fastball. They were even checking replays to see if it was a two-seamer (it wasn't). 

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He's my early choice for AL Cy Young, not that it's a big surprise. But I like him more than Chris Sale. He was going for around 5 auction dollars less than Sale.

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Looked good today.  Hit 97 a few times, curve ball and change-up were on point. 

Edited by verycoolnin

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rain screwed us now he's going up against sale with upton out. gonna be tough to get run support today. at least the sox lineup isn't at full strength

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2 hours ago, Rho said:

rain screwed us now he's going up against sale with upton out. gonna be tough to get run support today. at least the sox lineup isn't at full strength

 

as expected. sale just better. appreciate that verlander didn't have his best stuff today but didn't implode

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Verlander with better ratios, a quality start and not on the hook for the L like Sale.  I'll take it.

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22 minutes ago, Rho said:

 

as expected. sale just better. appreciate that verlander didn't have his best stuff today but didn't implode

 

And honestly Sale was better and more dominant but in terms of actually allowing runs, Verlander was a botched ball away from being up 1-0 and now 2-0. But you're not going to have your best stuff every outing... if you don't have your best stuff and you pitch 7 Innings, 0 ER, sub-1.00 WHIP, you're in for a damn good season. 

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This is the first time I've ever owned Verlander - always too expensive and then with his seeming inevitable age-related demise in 2014-2015 I was too scared to pick him then even though he was much more affordable. As has been mentioned his start to 2016 was a continuation of his perceived decline but he ended up having an elite campaign. It's looking more and more like that relatively short period of time was indeed an outlier and this dog still hunts after his 2nd gem of the season today. Pure quality.

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If he's healthy he'll be an ace, simple as that. Game one, he dominated with his fastball. Today, he didn't have his A-game, but used his curveball for success. He once again has three plus-pitches, and he no longer needs the mega-velo to dominate (all though his velo is plenty fine nowadays).

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7 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

This is the first time I've ever owned Verlander - always too expensive and then with his seeming inevitable age-related demise in 2014-2015 I was too scared to pick him then even though he was much more affordable. As has been mentioned his start to 2016 was a continuation of his perceived decline but he ended up having an elite campaign. It's looking more and more like that relatively short period of time was indeed an outlier and this dog still hunts after his 2nd gem of the season today. Pure quality.

 

Same here. Always shied away from him in the past, but I missed out on the earlier aces so I took him this time. I've been really impressed with both starts. Had phenomenal stuff in his first start, and in the second start he didn't, but he used what worked and battled for what was still a nice line.

Edited by Caelum

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Well THAT sucked.  Thank goodness he's my ace.....

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Wonder if Kate chimes in on this appearance

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Haven't been watching. Why's he getting shelled?? Bad luck, pitching bad, or both?

Edited by Joesh

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7 minutes ago, Joesh said:

Haven't been watching. Why's he getting shelled?? Bad luck, pitching bad, or both?

 

Last year Verlander had 5 starts against the Indians and a 4.88era. They just have his number. 

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Question on the scoring of the game , why is verlander charged with 9 earned runs ? Greene came in with jo. Ramirez and chisenhall on base . Ramirez was throw out at home , yandy Diaz who Greene walked scored along with chisenhall scored to make it 9 . 

 

I need as little era era damage as possible haha. Shouldn't it be 8? 

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