BlueJaysIn2030

Toronto Blue Jays 2017 Outlook

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They stink time to get what you can for Estrada, Liriano, Happ and Donaldson, i don't think you could get anything for Joey Bats or Martin, this team is just bad, the bullpen should be called the Firestarters.

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5 hours ago, jb_power said:

you 2 need a room or an offline discussion

 

Think the discussion has been very good. In my opinion sure beats the heck out of player X sucks which seems to be a post that pops up way to often these days.

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The discussion has been interesting, indeed.

 

I expected some regression heading into this season, but I don't think anyone expected the Blue Jays to stink quite like this. Would be interesting to see where they'd be at if the injury bug hadn't hit as hard as it has, but I suppose every team gets hit at some point in a given season. Got to find a way past it.

 

As far as 2017 goes, it's curtains. This team has to play roughly .580 or better ball for the rest of the year. Ain't happening. Only two teams did that last year in the AL. I hope they don't gut it all and sell what they can, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they listen to offers for Donaldson.

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1 hour ago, Low and Away said:

Think the discussion has been very good. In my opinion sure beats the heck out of player X sucks which seems to be a post that pops up way to often these days.

 

As a real life baseball discusion it has merit.  On a fantasy baseball forum not so much.

 

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11 hours ago, jb_power said:

 

As a real life baseball discusion it has merit.  On a fantasy baseball forum not so much.

 

So go away and don't enter the thread. 

 

Can anything else go wrong? The little guy left with arm tightness. Says he'll be fine, but a lot of player say that. 

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2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

So go away and don't enter the thread. 

 

Can anything else go wrong? The little guy left with arm tightness. Says he'll be fine, but a lot of player say that. 

Yup the Jays are turning out to be the Mets of the AL, more players in the infirmary than on the field

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45 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

Yup the Jays are turning out to be the Mets of the AL, more players in the infirmary than on the field

Did they hire the same med staff? haha

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4 minutes ago, chpatte4 said:

Any updates on Donaldson?  

He's taking bp and grounders, still a few weeks away

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5 hours ago, azeri98 said:

He's taking bp and grounders, still a few weeks away

I thought they said he would be activated during homestand that starts on Monday?  I am hoping he's back by this time next week

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1 minute ago, KarlJ. said:

I thought they said he would be activated during homestand that starts on Monday?  I am hoping he's back by this time next week

I hope so  but they said today on the radio they are being cautious because they brought him back to soon last time and he reinjured it

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On 5/3/2017 at 6:32 AM, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

1) It's not the same group. Edwin is gone, and he could play some 1B and was much faster than Molasses. Donaldson, Happ and Sanchez are all hurt. This is not the same team. You keep talking about cores, there is 3 core players hurt right now... one of them since the start of the year.

2) Tulo - point is that he isn't a great hitter like he once was. In a year or two do you think he'll be a really good defensive SS still? I don't. 

Molasses - yes, he needs to be athletic to play a position. I've yet to see anything from him that shows me he's a 35+HR hitter this year. He's also 33 and 10 months... So in 2018 he's 35. It's a true shame that he's slow as a snail because if he could play 1B - even average defence - then I'd be all on board.

No, no. I can. All of them will be a year older. Stop discounting age and look at Bautista. Happ has no track record of success, and Donaldson can't play 3B forever. He's going to cost this team buckets of money that they do not have, which is the only reason I keep saying move him... If we could snag him for 2 years I'd be on board.

I want consistency from a guy who plays ~130 games a year making 17 million, that's all.

3) So you think the Jays will outscore the Red Sox this year? Come on.

4) No, he dropped the ball by moving too quickly on Molasses. Yeah, the BP is a priority, but some people were all aboard the Seth Smith/JP Howell train in this very thread. I've talked about it to death earlier, it stinks. But Shapiro should have went out and done whatever he could to field a winning team. I don't care if you make the ALCS... You got spanked. So you need to get better. You don't show up with the same group and hope for success. 

5) How much will Sanchez, Stroman, Donaldson and Estrada cost you? Assuming you want to sign them since they are the core. I'm going to guess over 60 million for the four.

6) How? Explain how they tweak this year/get a better bullpen? These were all moves that should have been done in the offseason.

 

It's been a while since this last response so I won't go into too much detail, but did want to address it.

 

1.  My whole point is that short term injuries are a horrible reason to blow up the team.  You don't blow up the core of your team over short term injuries - "core" implies they are your building blocks for multiple years.  You seem to be advocating blowing up a team that could be very competitive in 2018 and beyond because 2017 isn't really going our way, and for what?  For the sake of feeling like the team has some current direction that we don't have to pin any hopes or expectations onto?

 

2.  Not sure what more there is to say here . . . Tulo is currently a very good defensive SS, with a defensive rating last year of 10.4.  He's 32.  Donaldson is 31.  Everyone ages differently, but if most players fall off a cliff in their early 30's then they'd only have about 5 years of usable service in the MLB, and that's just not true.  I'm not on board with 'lets tear the team down' because Donaldson might not be able to play 3B in 6 years from now.  

Also not sure what your fascination with Edwin at 1B is about, but in 74 games there last year he was a -13.1 defensive rating, and when he was at 1B the Jays had nobody notable to put in his place at DH.  Most of the lineups he played 1B either had one of Martin or Navarro DHing and the other catching, or used an OF as the DH so they could fit Melvin Upton in the lineup.  Even if Morales played 1B who are you going to DH that's that much better than Smoak?  Jays can't sign another DH-only player because it isn't like Edwin or Morales were good or young enough to play every day 1B.

 

3.  You missed the point - what I said had nothing to do with outscoring the Red Sox this year, it was that the Sox had a much better win/loss record than the Jays despite scoring fewer runs.  It's evidence that the Jays' pitching/bullpen was more to blame for the early season struggles than the offense.  That's it.  

 

4.  Again not sure what Edwin has to do with the Jays struggles so far this year.  His stat line in April with Cleveland was 9R-4HR-9RBI-.200AVG, and Morales' April stats were 9R-4HR-14RBI-.227AVG.  So if anything the Jays won more games in April with Morales than they would have with Edwin in the lineup.  To be clear, I'm not saying Morales is better, but the Jays' struggles in April had nothing to do with Edwin or Morales and everything to do with the lack of bullpen depth Shapiro added.  He waited until essentially the end of free agency so he could pick up the cheap leftover scraps of RPs left behind, and that's exactly what he's gotten - a scrapheap bullpen.  Also you talk about improving from last year's ALCS team - the big takeaway from the playoffs the last few years for everyone should be that the teams that win are doing it with elite bullpens, not by quibbling over not signing a $20 million DH.  

 

5.  Well Donaldson, Sanchez, Estrada, and Stroman currently make a combined $35 million.  Donaldson was arbitration eligible this year and signed for $17m and is arbitration eligible for 2018, so you're likely looking at a similar contract.  Stroman got $3.4m in an arbitration settlement this year and is arb. eligible for 3 more years.  Sanchez is on his first deal making peanuts but is of course arb. eligible for 3 more years.  Estrada is making $14.5m and is a UFA, so he's the only one whose contract could inflate for next year, but I also can't see him getting that much more - he's currently the 25th-highest paid pitcher in MLB, and I can't see him getting $20+ per year.  So in short, no, that group won't be making $60 million combined until probably 2021.

 

6.  I never said they were supposed to tweak the team in-season - we're talking long term I thought.  You don't do a full teardown for a short term gain.  Shed some baggage and salary in the off-season (between 2017 and 2018 seasons) and add some bullpen arms and make your tweaks.  

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All of that said, are we ready to step back away from the ledge yet?  Been awfully quiet in this thread but the Jays are on a 5 game winning streak, and have won 8 of the last 10.  Closed up the gap to 6.5 GB first in the East, while the rest of the division has essentially been playing .500 ball the last week, and only 3.0 GB of a wild card spot.  Upcoming 4 game home and home series with a scuttling Atlanta team that is 3-7 in their last 10 and on paper look every bit like that bad of a team.  If they sweep they'd be back to .500 (obviously big if still).

 

And all of this without getting really any healthier.  Donaldson and Tulo should be back soon, and Sanchez is now back.  Bautista is turning it on in May and looking good again.  Pillar and Smoak of all people are stepping up and looking surprisingly patient and methodical at the plate.  Bullpen is starting to settle down now that roles are starting to get a bit more defined and Gibbons' favorites are emerging.  

 

They're not completely out of the woods, but given the landscape of the rest of the AL (Jays only 3 GB behind CLE for that wild card spot) it looks like they are starting to pull this season out of the toilet.

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I'm not ready to say this team will make a WC spot, but I'm ready to say that the May they had was unreal. Finally healthy and the games are exciting. A lackluster AL East makes me a little more optimistic, but if I'm being real I still don't see them making a WC spot.

 

Loving what I'm seeing from Smoak. Cannot believe the change... Went from the cheapest and worst signing I've ever seen to being a stud. Awesome work by him and whoever was helping him right the ship. 

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They are just treading water, i don't see them getting to the WC spot, they have to pass everyone in their division except one team and hope the Twins or Indians fall off and now the Mariners are playing better, i just don't see them getting there.If they they are 5 games out of the WC at the deadline and have to pass multiple teams, time to trade the Estrada, Happ and JD

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The Yankees are for real.  I'm sure anyone from Toronto knows that our after-game talk show host, Mike Wilner seems to think that they aren't and that the team will fall back to earth soon.  I can't see this happening anymore.  Judge, Sanchez, Castro, Hicks.  The Yankees, right now are a fantasy team!  only problem is..they are real.

 

Speaking of managing.  Look, Judge opened the season in like the 6th or 7th spot, they moved him up to 3rd now that he's proven himself.

 

So why not move up Justin Smoak?

 

Keeping Bautista in the 3 spot isn't helping this team.  He's just too inconsistent.

 

Pillar's old non-walking ways are coming back.  He has 2 walks in June.  He's not a good leadoff man but there is nobody else.  

 

batting order should really go... Pillar JD Smoak Batista Morales. Tulo Martin Zeke Goins/Barney.

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2 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

The Yankees are for real.  I'm sure anyone from Toronto knows that our after-game talk show host, Mike Wilner seems to think that they aren't and that the team will fall back to earth soon.  I can't see this happening anymore.  Judge, Sanchez, Castro, Hicks.  The Yankees, right now are a fantasy team!  only problem is..they are real.

 

Speaking of managing.  Look, Judge opened the season in like the 6th or 7th spot, they moved him up to 3rd now that he's proven himself.

 

So why not move up Justin Smoak?

 

Keeping Bautista in the 3 spot isn't helping this team.  He's just too inconsistent.

 

Pillar's old non-walking ways are coming back.  He has 2 walks in June.  He's not a good leadoff man but there is nobody else.  

 

batting order should really go... Pillar JD Smoak Batista Morales. Tulo Martin Zeke Goins/Barney.

I agree with you about the Yanks, they are not going anywhere, and they get Chapman back in a week or two, not so sure about the batting order change will make much of a difference, Pillar is cooling off and JD hasn't warmed up yet, at least Bautista walks to get on base for Smoak, Pillar doesn't

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This team is so frustrating to watch, they seem allergic to the .500 mark, they just can't anything going, they've gotten worse since Tulo and JD came back into the line up, they need to get rid of Tulo, huge hole in the line-up, if there still under .500 by the middle of July i would make everyone available except for Sanchez and the prospects they have.

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To me they very noticeably don't have that same  cocky swagger they had the last couple years. They haven't had it all year and lost it in some point in the offseason. Not saying losing Edwin is the reason they are struggling, but the season outlook at the start of the year after the changes was "we'll see how we do" rather than "were contenders" like the previous offseason.

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10 hours ago, Darkthrone said:

To me they very noticeably don't have that same  cocky swagger they had the last couple years. They haven't had it all year and lost it in some point in the offseason. Not saying losing Edwin is the reason they are struggling, but the season outlook at the start of the year after the changes was "we'll see how we do" rather than "were contenders" like the previous offseason.

Can't be cocky when you start the year like they did. But I hear you. I also think there is a lot of competing personalities in the clubhouse, and they might be feeling a lot of pressure to perform knowing that the brass are likely more in favor of a losing season than we think.

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Meh, I'm not happy with the team floating around the .500 mark for the last couple weeks, but the sky still isn't falling.  After their horrible April everyone said it was basically impossible to get back into the race, and they've done just that.  The record looks underwhelming, but they're only 2.5 GB a WC spot, and nobody is really separating themselves from that pack.  They're also 5 GB a Yankees team that is 2-8 in their last 10 and showing the ups and downs they'll have with such a young roster and lack of pitching.

 

Ross Atkins has also repeatedly said the Jays' goal is to win and add players, not to blow it up, so not sure where everyone gets the feeling that's what they want to do.  If they lost 20 of the next 30 games I could see them selling at the deadline, but if they're still within striking distance of a WC spot there's no way they're selling.  The next few weeks we'll see if they can get over that .500 hump and gain a few games, but 2.5 GB in June is nothing if they can string together another month or two like May.  JD and others might be cold right now, but if they can hang around .500 with JD not hitting, just wait until he does.

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Lost their ace and the MVP was out for a good chunk. They need help in LF and 2nd I prefer another LF bat plus a bullpen arm. 

 

I don't see them making the playoffs but will put up a fight. 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, CanadianSportsJunkie said:

Lost their ace and the MVP was out for a good chunk. They need help in LF and 2nd I prefer another LF bat plus a bullpen arm. 

 

I don't see them making the playoffs but will put up a fight. 

 

 

They need a lot of pieces but aren't willing to trade prospects because they want to get younger, which i agree with, so where does that leave them, they also need a shortstop, the one they have is terrible

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