BlueJaysIn2030

Toronto Blue Jays 2017 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

He's going to benefit from the defence that Boston has.

Chris Sale is going to benefit from not having to face that Red Sox lineup in Fenway Park more than any other thing.

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Just now, Brooklyn Dude said:

Chris Sale is going to benefit from not having to face that Red Sox lineup in Fenway Park more than any other thing.

Haha, love this... 

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

No no... It's totally relevant. He's going to benefit from the defence that Boston has.

I said they need to sell off if they are out of it in June. Out of it. Not on the bubble, not in it, not on the cusp... Out of it. IE: 10 games back from the WC. 

I don't understand this.  You are showing how he pitched in other stadiums...and that is affected by Boston's defense, huh?

 

Point 2 for the Jays to be 10 games back of a wild card, - well the Jays won 89 games and tied for the wild card.  Detroit won 86 games.  If 87 games is what it takes to win the second wild card, the Jays would have to slip pack to a 77 win pace?  They become Chicago white sox bad in just 1 year.  It could happen, but not likely.  

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3 hours ago, garlando said:

The idea of selling off comes from the current core, more specifically the offensive core, getting up there in age. Do you really want to pay Josh Donaldson a mega contract at 32 when a big part of your offensive core (Tulo, Martin, Bautista, Morales) are all entering or have entered their decline phase? Add in Pillar who has a few years left of elite defence (history shows that as CFers get closer to 30, their range and ability to play center drops considerably) and Travis has had injury problems, and it doesn't look like a promising future for the Jays. The farm system is still being rebuilt after the many trades that brought the team success. If you continue trying to patch holes and keep going, your team starts to look like the Phillies of the last few years. Good news is they have two very good young SPs in Stroman and Sanchez (injury risks are there tho) that you hope management can build around and the team has to hope Rowdy Tellez and Vlad Jr. are the real deal.

When looking at this year, I think the Wild Card spot is a realistic outcome for them. Starting pitching should be above average with continued wizardry from Estrada and Happ and growth from Stroman and Sanchez. Liriano is a wildcard but he is an above average 5th starter imo. Depth isn't great in the rotation behind those guys so the Jays need them to stay healthy. Bullpen will likely be meh. Osuna is good but there isn't another elite arm there. I think management failed in their goal to get faster and better defensively but they should still hit well. Morales should knock in a bunch of guys and Pearce was an underrated signing imo as he looks to have become a better hitter late in his career and he came at minimal cost. Depth isn't too bad in the lineup and they have a bunch of quality defenders up the middle. Fowler would have been a nice add for LF but alas. Jays should still be competitive but likely aren't real World Series Contenders. The fanbase wants a title so badly and is willing to sacrifice the future for it, management is taking a more conservative approach.

 

There's a ton of risk on this team. 

 

Every hitter is on the wrong side of 30 with the exception of Travis (not sure about Pillar).  There isn't a single hitter that you can look at and expect a breakout with the exception of Travis.  There's a better chance the hitters regress than improve.  

 

On the mound three SPs are WBC participants and one other one just had a 90+ inning jump.   Two of those guys likely will be fine but expecting all four to duplicate last year is tough. 

 

Haven't thought about how they stack up in the grand scheme of things for the WC but I'm not a fan of their risk profile.

 

 

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5 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Hi Chris,

I'd like to remind you that your 2016 ERA of 3.34 is roughly the same as that of the Jays' Sanchez-Happ-Estrada.  I'd like to remind you that Fenway isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise so you can't expect dramatic improvement just by coming out of Cell field.  I'd like to mention that your herky-jerky style of pitching is still a cause for concern in terms of injury risk.  I'd like to reassure that "pitch to contact" isn't exactly the best way to go.    I'd also like to say that although you represent a nice improvement over Clay Bucholz, there is ample reason to believe Porcello and Wright won't be duplicating their 2016 numbers and that Snachez and Stroman (especially Stroman) can improve.  

Later.

KJ

OT:  Hi King Dude,  Please see the Pitching Mechanics thread on this forum to see how my motion is pretty darn safe.  Yer pal, Chris.

I just don't understand how the Jays hitters got to be so collectively old en masse.  Someone tell me.  Is their farm system not producing young hitters?  Or did they trade them all off to Billy Beane or what?

 

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57 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

There's a ton of risk on this team. 

 

Every hitter is on the wrong side of 30 with the exception of Travis (not sure about Pillar).  There isn't a single hitter that you can look at and expect a breakout with the exception of Travis.  There's a better chance the hitters regress than improve.  

 

On the mound three SPs are WBC participants and one other one just had a 90+ inning jump.   Two of those guys likely will be fine but expecting all four to duplicate last year is tough. 

 

Haven't thought about how they stack up in the grand scheme of things for the WC but I'm not a fan of their risk profile.

 

 

Red Sox have a ton of risk too.  They just lost a 1.000+ OPS DH to retirement.  Oh and he is a heck of a lot older than 30 as well.

 

The improvement centers around Bautista and his having an injury free season and returning to form.  Not a huge longshot.  At the very least you are getting a ton of walks and some Hrs.  Donaldson + Bautista makes the Jays the only AL team likely to have 2  or more players with  .900 or higher OPS'es.  Maybe you can argue Miggy+JD martinez on the Tigers assuming JD doesn't get traded or hurt.

Edited by KingJoffrey

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2 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

1)           I don't understand this.  You are showing how he pitched in other stadiums...and that is affected by Boston's defense, huh?

 

2)           Point 2 for the Jays to be 10 games back of a wild card, - well the Jays won 89 games and tied for the wild card.  Detroit won 86 games.  If 87 games is what it takes to win the second wild card, the Jays would have to slip pack to a 77 win pace?  They become Chicago white sox bad in just 1 year.  It could happen, but not likely.  

1) 

You said that his ERA was "roughly the same as the Jays' Sanchez-Happ-Estrda" trio, who pitch in the AL East. I was posted Sale's stats in those same parks to show you that he's been elite in those stadiums with a bad defensive team behind him. Now he's going to be pitching in those same stadiums (without Fenway) with possibly the best OF defence in all of baseball. 

So the point was to show you that his ERA in those same places is incredible. Yeah, small sample sizes... But the AL West and Central had some good teams in 2016 - Indians (5th), Mariners (6th), Rangers (7th), Tigers (11th), Astros (15th) in terms of runs scored.

2)

It isn't unreasonable to think the Jays could be something like 10 games back from the WC in June. In 2016 the Jays were 8 games back on July 28th, 7 games under .500 on July 2nd, and had a 5 game losing streak in May. They played under .500 baseball in 3/6 months. They had a 45-46 record in the first half, 48-23 in the second half. 

Here is their record against opponents in the AL East in 2016:
BOS 9-10
TBR 9-10
NYY 13-6
BAL 11-8

They were 24-30 and June 2nd of 2016 and hit 30-30 on the 9th.

 

So no... It isn't unreasonable for them to be out 10 games. They're already projected to lose 3 more games than last year, but people are really forgetting a few things:

  1. Russell Martin is not going to catch 130 games this year (he's 34), and their backup is... who?
  2. Justin Smoak is atrocious
  3. Steve Pearce is a bad fielder and already has an elbow problem and "Won't be full strength until April" http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/blue-jays-steve-pearce-wont-be-full-strength-until-april/
  4. DH: Who is it? Is it Molasses? Is it Bautista? Can either play in the OF? Who rests when? What happens when we play in the NL? Or, dare I say it... If they made the WS? 
  5. Devon Travis has a really tough time staying healthy, and he's still hurting http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/shapiro-still-unknown-devon-travis-return-date/
  6. Kevin Pillar can't hit at the MLB level
  7. Aaron Sanchez has gone from 133IP to 101IP to 192 (not including the playoffs). I believe in him, but that worries me a bit.
  8. JA Happ's peripherals ere god-awful, and he should be a full point higher in ERA. Which, really, a 4.10ERA for your #4 isn't the worst thing, but he's not a 20 game winner with a 3.18ERA again. Never.
  9. Marco Estrada might be one of those guys who just ignores peripherals, but I watched him in person 7 or 8 times in 2016 (and many more on TV). If he misses his spot even slightly, that ball is gone. If he throws too hard, that ball is gone. And he has some lingering back issues which is concerning... The guy has only thrown 180IP once.
  10. We know who Roberta Osuna is, and we all love him.
  11. Jason Grilli is 40.
  12. JP Howell and Joe Smith have awful peripherals.

 

I'm telling you - right now - that the Jays are a bubble team. I can see them winning the WC, but that doesn't mean that things can't go south very quickly. If Molasses/Bautista/Pearce go down... then what? 

And I never talked about a "77 win pace"... I said if they are out of the picture, then the management will be selling. They already made that clear by pulling their offer back on EE and sticking with what they have. They know this team is old, but what sucks is that they should have went all in this year. This was the final chance. But they blew it, because Shapiro likes to blow things up and start over.

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28 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Red Sox have a ton of risk too.  They just lost a 1.000+ OPS DH to retirement.  Oh and he is a heck of a lot older than 30 as well.

 

The improvement centers around Bautista and his having an injury free season and returning to form.  Not a huge longshot.  At the very least you are getting a ton of walks and some Hrs.  Donaldson + Bautista makes the Jays the only AL team likely to have 2  or more players with  .900 or higher OPS'es.  Maybe you can argue Miggy+JD martinez on the Tigers assuming JD doesn't get traded or hurt.

Yeah, the BoSox lost Ortiz... and the Jays lost an easy .900OPS DH because they were stupid.

But let's go by OPS on each team, shall we? Here is their career OPS, 2016 OPS and (2017 OPS via ZiPS:

Red Sox
C - Leon: .681, .845 (.678)

1B - Moreland: .754, .720 (.720)
2B - Pedroia: .811, .825, (.758)
3B - Sandoval: .790, .143, (.719)
SS - Bogaerts: .749, .802, (.775)

LF - Benintendi: .835, .835, (.787)
RF - Betts: .855, .897, (.865)
CF - Bradley Jr.: .726, .835, (.775)

DH - Ramirez: .861, .866, (.830)

Blue Jays
C - Martin: .755, .733, (.744)

1B - Smoak: .700, .705, (.730)
2B - Travis: .811, .785, (.793)
3B - Donaldson: .868, .953, (.897)
SS - Tulowitzki: .865, .761, (.765)

LF - Upton Jr.: .723, .693, (.656)/Pearce: .867, .774, (.851)
RF - Bautista: .861, .817, (.867)
CF - Pillar: .688, .679, (.709)

DH - Molasses: .795, .795, (.799) 

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46 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Donaldson + Bautista makes the Jays the only AL team likely to have 2  or more players with  .900 or higher OPS'es.  Maybe you can argue Miggy+JD martinez on the Tigers assuming JD doesn't get traded or hurt.

Woah woah... no no no. You can't say the Jays are "likely" to have 2 or more (who else?) players with .900+OPS in 2017, and then say the Tigers are less likely because you think they might trade Martinez or he gets hurt. The Jays are just as "likely" to see Joey Bats get hurt. Actually, maybe more so since he's a lot older.

If we look at ZiPS, here are teams with players who are projected to have 2 or more players with an OPS of at least .900:

... none.

 

If we look at ZiPS, here are teams with players who are projected to have 2 or more players with an OPS of at least ..850:

Cubs ( Rizzo and Bryant)
Tigers (Cabrera and Martinez)
Rockies (Gonzalez, Arenado and Blackmon)
Blue Jays (Donaldson, Bautista and Pearce)

 

Regardless, you're assuming that the Jays will have Bautista all season. So let's just stop assuming anything and stick with facts and numbers, it's much easier.

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No, wait..I said the only AL team with 2 players with a .900+ OPS. (and Rockies don't count anyway, give me a break).

 

There were many offseason rumors regarding JD getting traded, so it's not coming out of thin air.  He's a suspect, because unlike Bautista, he hasn't had one full and complete season with a .900+ OPS,  and he usually was a beneficiary of a nice high BABIP (which is why most projections expected regression 2 years ago) (Though his walk rate did creep up last year).  

 

Bautista, when healthy, is a likely.900 OPS because he is a walk machine with power and reasonable contact rates.

 

But regardless, the point being made isn't to nitpick who is going to project to  what, the point is the Jays' offense is not nearly as badly off as some people are suggesting.  It is an enviable position to have 2 .900+ OPS hitters in your lineup.  It allows flexibility to have some defensive specialists or declining years.

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1 minute ago, KingJoffrey said:

But regardless, the point being made isn't to nitpick who is going to project to  what, the point is the Jays' offense is not nearly as badly off as some people are suggesting.  It is an enviable position to have 2 .900+ OPS hitters in your lineup.  It allows flexibility to have some defensive specialists or declining years.

You still haven't provided anything me with anything that says this team will be as good last year. All the saber stats look like it's a different story. ERA's going up, who plays where, who is healthy.. etc etc etc... Look man, I like the Jays. I'm a homer. but real here. Are you seriously thinking that Steve Pearce is going to play 150 games? That Molasses will play every day with Bautista? Be real. Be honest.

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9 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

2030,

 

What did the Saber stats say about the Jays' starting pitching for 2016?

No idea. But it's kinda irrelevant. We're talking about the now. You think JA Happ is a sub 3.5 pitcher?

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

No idea. But it's kinda irrelevant. We're talking about the now. You think JA Happ is a sub 3.5 pitcher?

 

Come on now.  As you say: "be real, be honest".

 

They were all down on Estrada and Happ, thought Sanchez would be on a tight innings limit and thought Stroman would be the only reliable pitcher.

 

I do expect Bautista and Morales to be healthy most of the season.  Bautista's injury (at least one of them) was a fluke injury where he twisted his knee catching a ball or something like that.  There's no reason why a 36 year old, in excellent shape and just came off 2 straight healthy, 900+OPS seasons can't return to form.

 

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30 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Come on now.  As you say: "be real, be honest".

 

They were all down on Estrada and Happ, thought Sanchez would be on a tight innings limit and thought Stroman would be the only reliable pitcher.

 

I do expect Bautista and Morales to be healthy most of the season.  Bautista's injury (at least one of them) was a fluke injury where he twisted his knee catching a ball or something like that.  There's no reason why a 36 year old, in excellent shape and just came off 2 straight healthy, 900+OPS seasons can't return to form.

 

K bud. 

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Just saw a tweet from Mike Wilner.  Says Pillar is saying Bautista's arm is back this year.  See if it lasts more than the spring.

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I think Bats can stay healthy if they mix in some DH for him. Put Morales at 1B, put Pearce or Zeke Cabrera in RF. 

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32 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Age is so overrated as a factor.

 

6 of the top 10 players for OPS in 2016 were age 30 or older.

Very true. While father time is undefeated, it gets different players at different times. The odds of any one year happening to be the end for a player are pretty slim

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4 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Age is so overrated as a factor.

 

6 of the top 10 players for OPS in 2016 were age 30 or older.

Sure. But what's not overrated is the fact that as you age, it takes longer to recover. No one (especially not me) is going to question the talent level of Bautista. What I do question is his health and whether or not he can stay on the field

0-4 in ST. VS the Braves. Toronto media is out for blood already. If this team isn't a winner, it should be entertaining in the GTA.

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I own Tellez across the board. I think he makes some noise for the Jays this season. Smoak and Pearce will have a hard time staving him off if the early returns in AAA are good. Then again, I am a Tellez homer at this point and maybe he doesn't make his splash until next year. Who knows?

Edited by Stats

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@KingJoffrey

Age is overrated, eh? 

The Jays are 1-8, won't make the playoffs, and are last in runs scored in the MLB.

Let's look at their regular players:

1. Jose Bautista 36 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .152 - has some range in the OF again, but he looks like garbage and no one is afraid of him

2.  Russell Martin: 34 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .042 - he's done, overcooked... just finished

3. Steve Pearce: 34 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .174 - yeah, what a signing!

4. Kendrys Morales - 33 years old, 1HR, 6RBI, hitting .235 - Molasses looks like he's 48 rather than 33, sucks at his "position" and has been pretty mediocre

5. Troy Tuloitzki: 32 years old, 1HR, 9RBI, hitting .212 - typical old Troy season... not much offense, great defence. Stop thinking he's going to be a .300 30HR hitter again, it isn't happening

6. Josh Donaldson: 31 years old, 2HR, 4RBI, hitting .310 - everything looks pretty normal aside from getting hurt

7. Justin Smoak: 30 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .208 - the best 1B of all time

8. Kevin Pillar: 28 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .242 - yeah, he plays defense but can't hit a lick

9. Devon Travis 26 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .088 - the f?

 

This team sucks so bad I can't even watch. They're old, with the average position player age being over 30. They're slow, they're very "average" on defence, and they can't hit. At all. 

Oh, and the pitching staff? 4.57ERA before tonight's game. Good enough for 20th in the league. Happ and Estrada look like what they should look like: 3.5+ ERA pitchers who play in a tiny park.

 

 

On 2/26/2017 at 9:21 PM, KingJoffrey said:

I do expect Bautista and Morales to be healthy most of the season.  Bautista's injury (at least one of them) was a fluke injury where he twisted his knee catching a ball or something like that.  There's no reason why a 36 year old, in excellent shape and just came off 2 straight healthy, 900+OPS seasons can't return to form.

 

f29.png

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On 12/1/2016 at 8:35 PM, Chubbles said:

I think the jays will be bad next year, like really bad which makes me sad

 

Yep, as I predicted 

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