BlueJaysIn2030

Toronto Blue Jays 2017 Outlook

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18 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

@KingJoffrey

Age is overrated, eh? 

The Jays are 1-8, won't make the playoffs, and are last in runs scored in the MLB.

Let's look at their regular players:

1. Jose Bautista 36 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .152 - has some range in the OF again, but he looks like garbage and no one is afraid of him

2.  Russell Martin: 34 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .042 - he's done, overcooked... just finished

3. Steve Pearce: 34 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .174 - yeah, what a signing!

4. Kendrys Morales - 33 years old, 1HR, 6RBI, hitting .235 - Molasses looks like he's 48 rather than 33, sucks at his "position" and has been pretty mediocre

5. Troy Tuloitzki: 32 years old, 1HR, 9RBI, hitting .212 - typical old Troy season... not much offense, great defence. Stop thinking he's going to be a .300 30HR hitter again, it isn't happening

6. Josh Donaldson: 31 years old, 2HR, 4RBI, hitting .310 - everything looks pretty normal aside from getting hurt

7. Justin Smoak: 30 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .208 - the best 1B of all time

8. Kevin Pillar: 28 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .242 - yeah, he plays defense but can't hit a lick

9. Devon Travis 26 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .088 - the f?

 

This team sucks so bad I can't even watch. They're old, with the average position player age being over 30. They're slow, they're very "average" on defence, and they can't hit. At all. 

Oh, and the pitching staff? 4.57ERA before tonight's game. Good enough for 20th in the league. Happ and Estrada look like what they should look like: 3.5+ ERA pitchers who play in a tiny park.

 

 

f29.png

 

LOL the April overreaction thread is somewhere around here. 

 

But seriously, as a Jays fan it's definitely frustrating, but come on - you can't conclude age has set in and the team sucks after 9 games. Unless you honestly think they're going to hit sub-.200 all season and keep losing games 2-1. 

 

Also a lot of these criticism aren't really fair. Morales has been one of the better Jays hitters so far (not saying much), and is out-of-date hitting Edwin by quite a bit so far (is Edwin done too?). Tull's not a .300 hitter, but after not having a hit at all the first few games he's been solid the last few. This early in the season all it takes is a couple good or bad games to dramatically change your AVG. 

 

I guess I just find the amount of panic after two weeks to be a bit much, kind of like how the stands are already half empty as the bandwagoners are jumping off as quick as they jumped on. If the team is still hitting horribly in mid-May then it'll be time to panic, but I'm still pretty confident that as long as they stay healthy most of these guys will turn it around.

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5 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Yeah, I screwed up.  Team sucks.  What more can I say?

 

The team sucks just as definitively as the Reds are going to be the #1 team in baseball this year. It's such a small sample size to draw such absolute conclusions. 

 

I understand people being frustrated, but if everyone believes the team is this bad then I guess it's time to drop any Jays that are rostered. 

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6 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

The team sucks just as definitively as the Reds are going to be the #1 team in baseball this year. It's such a small sample size to draw such absolute conclusions. 

 

I understand people being frustrated, but if everyone believes the team is this bad then I guess it's time to drop any Jays that are rostered. 

 

Yeah but you don't start off 1-8 and make the playoffs, you just don't.  They won't be terrible all year but they will be at best, mediocre.

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I know it's not a likely outcome, but in 2015 they came into August a .500 team and then won 39 game the next two months. After May they were 6 games under .500, and right now they're 7 games under .500. I know 1-8 looks horrible as a percentage, but it's still very early. 

 

I guess I just have a hard time believing that essentially the same team that's gone to back to back ALCS' is all of a sudden "mediocre at best". The only thing that could cause that dramatic of a regression is a huge amount of injuries, or huge player turnover. 

 

At this point I'm not holding my breath for playoffs, but I'd also be pretty surprised if they ended the year under .500.

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

@KingJoffrey

Age is overrated, eh? 

The Jays are 1-8, won't make the playoffs, and are last in runs scored in the MLB.

Let's look at their regular players:

1. Jose Bautista 36 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .152 - has some range in the OF again, but he looks like garbage and no one is afraid of him

2.  Russell Martin: 34 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .042 - he's done, overcooked... just finished

3. Steve Pearce: 34 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .174 - yeah, what a signing!

4. Kendrys Morales - 33 years old, 1HR, 6RBI, hitting .235 - Molasses looks like he's 48 rather than 33, sucks at his "position" and has been pretty mediocre

5. Troy Tuloitzki: 32 years old, 1HR, 9RBI, hitting .212 - typical old Troy season... not much offense, great defence. Stop thinking he's going to be a .300 30HR hitter again, it isn't happening

6. Josh Donaldson: 31 years old, 2HR, 4RBI, hitting .310 - everything looks pretty normal aside from getting hurt

7. Justin Smoak: 30 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .208 - the best 1B of all time

8. Kevin Pillar: 28 years old, 0HR, 0RBI, hitting .242 - yeah, he plays defense but can't hit a lick

9. Devon Travis 26 years old, 0HR, 1RBI, hitting .088 - the f?

 

This team sucks so bad I can't even watch. They're old, with the average position player age being over 30. They're slow, they're very "average" on defence, and they can't hit. At all. 

Oh, and the pitching staff? 4.57ERA before tonight's game. Good enough for 20th in the league. Happ and Estrada look like what they should look like: 3.5+ ERA pitchers who play in a tiny park.

 

 

f29.png

Now that's a rant I enjoyed.  Makes my Mariner ones seem kind of tame.  You have inspired me!

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Its really frustrating being a fan of this franchise because the writing was on the wall - this is a last chance year for this roster. Everyone on this team is old and management just has no interest in increasing payroll to add a few much needed pieces, its pathetic. Rogers is one of the richest owners of a team in the league, have all distribution rights coast to coast in this country and can't be bothered to open their wallet whatsoever cause they know they'll make money anyways.

 

Well it'll be funny now because they somehow forgot how bandwagon happy with baseball the city of Toronto is. They are NOT the Leafs. Most people who follow sports in this city are pissed about the inaction in the offseason, doubly so now. Even the know-nothing bandwagoners with their girlfriends in Donaldson jerseys are jumping ship, its high comedy around here. Inconceivably this team is trying to be out of contention for the playoffs by the third week in April, I mean, its hard to even type that but its not an April overreaction, its the truth.

 

Its very disappointing for me being a life long Jays fan, even having been around for 92-93, that was a lifetime ago. I'm already gearing up to blow this whole thing up because I just don't believe this team has the amount of talent needed to gain a huge amount of ground in the damned AL East. Losing Donaldson tonight for a significant amount of time is not the straw that breaks the camels back, its a bus that hit it and threw it across the street. It shows how desperate the team already was just having him in the lineup tonight; well now your problems are magnified significantly.

 

Oh yeah, and extending Gibbons is also completely ridiculous, if I have to watch one more post game interview with that dunce exclaiming "we'll get 'er going here soon" I'll lose my mind. Easily one of the worst managers we've had here, complete moron that dude, I honestly believe there are some posters on this site who could do a better job managing a team than this fossil.

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38 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Yeah but you don't start off 1-8 and make the playoffs, you just don't.  They won't be terrible all year but they will be at best, mediocre.

The 1977 New York Yankees started the season 2-8.  And we all know how that year finished.  It got so bad that Billy Martin put all of the 9 players names in a baseball cap and determined the lineup by picking the names out of the hat.

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Brilliant thinking letting Donaldson play on a bum leg so soon again.  I mean, did they learn nothing the first time? Or the second time?

 

Edited by cs3

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10 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

LOL the April overreaction thread is somewhere around here. 

 

But seriously, as a Jays fan it's definitely frustrating, but come on - you can't conclude age has set in and the team sucks after 9 games. Unless you honestly think they're going to hit sub-.200 all season and keep losing games 2-1. 

 

Also a lot of these criticism aren't really fair. Morales has been one of the better Jays hitters so far (not saying much), and is out-of-date hitting Edwin by quite a bit so far (is Edwin done too?). Tull's not a .300 hitter, but after not having a hit at all the first few games he's been solid the last few. This early in the season all it takes is a couple good or bad games to dramatically change your AVG. 

 

I guess I just find the amount of panic after two weeks to be a bit much, kind of like how the stands are already half empty as the bandwagoners are jumping off as quick as they jumped on. If the team is still hitting horribly in mid-May then it'll be time to panic, but I'm still pretty confident that as long as they stay healthy most of these guys will turn it around.

A 9 game sample size is not small. There are only 162 games in the season, and you need to win ~85 to get into the playoffs.

They were a strike-out machine last year, and the hitting took a step back last year compared to the year before. Part of that was Bautista being hurt, another part was pitchers weren't scared to throw to them anymore. They also lost a ton of games by one run last year, so I wouldn't be surprised if they keep losing them.

Morales has been crappy, and it has nothing to do with Edwin. Tulo has been crappy. The entire team has been crappy. BA isn't everything - the team isn't scoring runs. That's all that matters.

I have season tickets and I won't go until they start winning. It's boring otherwise. 

10 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

I know it's not a likely outcome, but in 2015 they came into August a .500 team and then won 39 game the next two months. After May they were 6 games under .500, and right now they're 7 games under .500. I know 1-8 looks horrible as a percentage, but it's still very early. 

 

I guess I just have a hard time believing that essentially the same team that's gone to back to back ALCS' is all of a sudden "mediocre at best". The only thing that could cause that dramatic of a regression is a huge amount of injuries, or huge player turnover. 

 

At this point I'm not holding my breath for playoffs, but I'd also be pretty surprised if they ended the year under .500.

They were 2 years younger in August, and were hitting amazingly. Winning 39 games over 2 months was not by design, don't kid yourself. They were very good but also very fortunate.

2016 they took a big step back.

Being sub-.500 in May is different than having 1 win in 9 games. Don't worry about percentages: you need to win ~85 games. Right now they've lost 8.

It's not the same team as 2015 or 2016... not even close. You have a team that's average age is well over 30, Martin can't hit a lick and is your primary catcher (and is prone to get hurt, due to age and position). Bautisita/Molasses are old and can't hit. Tulo has never been that good in Toronto.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-blue-jays-upcoming-quandary/

It's been one week, and Fangraphs playoff odds for them (pretty reliable in the past) has them finishing as a .500 team (81-81), a drop in chance of 52% to 26%.

 

Even if you’re not adjusting their expected future winning percentage down in a massive way based on what has happened so far — and we’re not, as our rest-of-season projection has them playing like an 84-win team over the next 154 games — the early struggles have just made the task more difficult. If you think you have to win 90 games to grab a Wild Card spot, the Blue Jays now have to win 89 out of their remaining 154, which translates to a .578 winning percentage over the rest of the season. The Cubs and Dodgers are the only two teams we have forecast to play at that level. The Blue Jays are not the Cubs or the Dodgers.

 

 

And the problem with lousy starts for teams like the Blue Jays is that they don’t really have 154 games to make up all this ground. They really only have about 100 games to put themselves back into a strong playoff position, because come July, they’ll have to make a real buy-or-sell decision. Given this roster, holding everyone together and hoping things work out probably can’t be an option.

Jose Bautista is 36. J.A. Happ, Russell Martin, and Kendrys Morales are 34. Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano are 33. Troy Tulowitzki is 32, and Josh Donaldson is 31. There are a few good young pitchers whom the team can see as their long-term core, but mostly, this team is old. If the Blue Jays aren’t sure they can make a run at a playoff spot this year, it’s incumbent upon the front office to try and turn some of these veterans with short-term value into younger pieces who could help the team in 2018 and beyond, because if they don’t add some more young talent to the mix, they’re in for some lean years in the future.

 

 

 

 

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^

"I have season tickets and I won't go until they start winning. It's boring otherwise. "

 

now here's a True Blue fan

 

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Keep faith fellas, they'll be back! They may not be better than in years' past but they're not this bad either. 

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If Donaldson ends up missing time, this really becomes a team to stream against. 

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7 minutes ago, jb_power said:

^

"I have season tickets and I won't go until they start winning. It's boring otherwise. "

 

now here's a True Blue fan

 

 

Yeah, he kinda lost me after that . . . does that mean he also didn't attend games between 1994 and 2013?

 

@BlueJaysIn2030 you're entitled to have your own opinion on it, but I still fail to see one year older (and we're not talking a team of 40 year olds, basically the vets are mid-30s) being cause for them to be 1-8, and having these first 9 games over write the successes of the past 324. That is exactly what a small sample size is. 

 

I'm not going to argue it doesn't make it much harder to get into the playoffs, because it does, but it's also ludicrous to say the team is all of a sudden mediocre. For fantasy purposes (what this board is about) the team and players will break out of this slump and be at least a .500 team. 

 

At the end of the day, if you truly think after 9 games that Morales stinks, Bautista is done, and the pitchers were playing above themselves the last couple years then make some trades on your fantasy teams to dump them. However I think you're a little too close and emotionally invested in this situation to see clearly, because by this same logic it's time to bail on Trevor Story, Edwin, Cano, and any other stars that have come out of the gets cold. 

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48 minutes ago, jb_power said:

^

"I have season tickets and I won't go until they start winning. It's boring otherwise. "

 

now here's a True Blue fan

 

I live outside of the city. I'm not making the trek to Toronto to watch them lose. Why would I? I'm looking at ~$50 per trip. 

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25 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Yeah, he kinda lost me after that . . . does that mean he also didn't attend games between 1994 and 2013?

 

@BlueJaysIn2030 you're entitled to have your own opinion on it, but I still fail to see one year older (and we're not talking a team of 40 year olds, basically the vets are mid-30s) being cause for them to be 1-8, and having these first 9 games over write the successes of the past 324. That is exactly what a small sample size is. 

 

I'm not going to argue it doesn't make it much harder to get into the playoffs, because it does, but it's also ludicrous to say the team is all of a sudden mediocre. For fantasy purposes (what this board is about) the team and players will break out of this slump and be at least a .500 team. 

 

At the end of the day, if you truly think after 9 games that Morales stinks, Bautista is done, and the pitchers were playing above themselves the last couple years then make some trades on your fantasy teams to dump them. However I think you're a little too close and emotionally invested in this situation to see clearly, because by this same logic it's time to bail on Trevor Story, Edwin, Cano, and any other stars that have come out of the gets cold. 

1. How many teams have made the playoffs in the MLB with a 1-8 start the year? 

2. Small samples don't really matter when it comes to real life baseball - I'm not talking about FBB. This team is 1-8... they need to be a .578+ team from here on out. You know how hard that is to do?

3. Again, not talking about FBB.

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Worst starts in franchise history for each team. Next 6 games against really good teams (Orioles and Red Sox), then it's the Angels and Cards. 

 

Arizona Diamondbacks
Worst 25-game start: 7-18 (1998, 2014). Results: 65-97 (1998); 64-98 (2014).

Atlanta Braves
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1988, 2016). Results: 54-106 (1988); 68-93 (2016).

Baltimore Orioles
Worst 25-game start: 2-23 (1988). Result: 54-107.

Boston Red Sox
Worst 25-game start: 4-21 (1932). Result: 43-111.

Chicago Cubs
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1962, '66, '97). Results: 59-103 (1962); 59-103 ('66); 68-94 ('97).

Chicago White Sox
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1942). Result: 66-82.

Cincinnati Reds
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1931, '34, '50, '86). Results: 58-96 (1931); 52-99 ('34); 66-87 ('50); 86-76 ('86).

Cleveland Indians
Worst 25-game start: 4-21 (1969). Result: 62-99.

Colorado Rockies
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (2005). Result: 67-95.

Detroit Tigers
Worst 25-game start: 3-22 (2003). Result: 43-119.

Houston Astros
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (1969). Result: 81-81.

Kansas City Royals
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (1992, 2006). Results: 72-90 (1992), 62-100 (2006).

Los Angeles Angels
Worst 25-game start: 9-16 (1961, '69, '76, '94, 2013)). Result: 70-91 (1961), 71-91 ('69), 76-86 ('76), 47-68 ('94), 78-84 (2013).

Los Angeles Dodgers
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1911). Result: 64-86.

Miami Marlins
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (1995). Result: 67-76.

Milwaukee Brewers
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (1970). Result: 65-97.

Minnesota Twins
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1957). Result: 55-99.

New York Mets
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1964). Result: 53-109.

New York Yankees
Worst 25-game start: 7-17-1 (1913). Result: 57-94-2.

Oakland A’s
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (1965). Result: 59-103.

Philadelphia Phillies
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (1928). Result: 43-109.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (1952). Result: 42-112.

San Diego Padres
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1987). Result: 65-97.

Seattle Mariners
Worst 25-game start: 6-18-1 (1981). Result: 44-65-1.

San Francisco Giants
Worst 25-game start: 8-17 (1980, '84). Results: 75-86 (1980), 66-96 ('84).

St. Louis Cardinals
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (1973). Result: 81-81.

Tampa Bay Rays
Worst 25-game start: 8-17 (2001, '05). Results: 62-100 (2001), 67-95 ('05).

Texas Rangers
Worst 25-game start: 6-19 (1962). Result: 60-101.

Toronto Blue Jays
Worst 25-game start: 7-18 (1979). Result: 53-109.

Washington Nationals
Worst 25-game start: 5-20 (2004). Result: 67-95.

 
 
The Jays are now running their worst record ever. Yes, so let's say they win half of the next 16 games (8 wins). Then we're looking at a team that's sitting at 9-16. That's just not getting it done. These guys need to win the series against the Red Sox, the Angels and the Cardinals. They can't go 3-6... they need to go 6-3 or better. And I don't see it happening without Donaldson. 

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1 hour ago, jb_power said:

^

"I have season tickets and I won't go until they start winning. It's boring otherwise. "

 

now here's a True Blue fan

 

 

13 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I live outside of the city. I'm not making the trek to Toronto to watch them lose. Why would I? I'm looking at ~$50 per trip. 

 

"I guess I just find the amount of panic after two weeks to be a bit much, kind of like how the stands are already half empty as the bandwagoners are jumping off as quick as they jumped on. If the team is still hitting horribly in mid-May then it'll be time to panic, but I'm still pretty confident that as long as they stay healthy most of these guys will turn it around."

 

and this from the same guy who just yesterday blasted "the bandwagoners are jumping off as quick as they jumped on."

 

Talk about calling the kettle BLACK!

 

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8 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

 

"I guess I just find the amount of panic after two weeks to be a bit much, kind of like how the stands are already half empty as the bandwagoners are jumping off as quick as they jumped on. If the team is still hitting horribly in mid-May then it'll be time to panic, but I'm still pretty confident that as long as they stay healthy most of these guys will turn it around."

 

and this from the same guy who just yesterday blasted "the bandwagoners are jumping off as quick as they jumped on."

 

Talk about calling the kettle BLACK!

 

Uh what?

 

Ok pal. So by your logic I'm a bandwagoner because I don't want to spend $50 to make a trip into a city of 2+ million people and watch the team lose/play poorly? I've had seasons for 5 years. I go when they do well because I enjoy the entertainment. 

If you think that makes me a bandwagoner then you're a fool. 

 

 

Edit: or I'm completely misunderstanding you

Edited by BlueJaysIn2030

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I think there's a big difference between bandwagon fan and fair weather fan.  Bandwagon fans typically became fans during a winning season and have a tendency to find other allegiances when their "team" is playing bad.  Fair weather fans typically still pay attention they just don't put much effort into being a fan when the team sucks.  I'm pretty fairweather when it comes to the Mariners.  Am I really suppose to get excited about paying to see a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in 16 years play?  To sit in one of the worst traffic cities in America, to pay $30 dollars to park, to spend $9 bucks on a beer, to spend $12 bucks on a piece of pizza to watch a horse**** club boot the ball around for 3 hours and then get back in my car to sit in an hour of traffic?  If that makes me a fairweather fan so be it, but when you don't live right within easy access to a sports facility it's hard to get jacked up about spending any money on that team.

Edited by Cmilne23

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11 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Uh what?

 

Ok pal. So by your logic I'm a bandwagoner because I don't want to spend $50 to make a trip into a city of 2+ million people and watch the team lose/play poorly? I've had seasons for 5 years. I go when they do well because I enjoy the entertainment. 

If you think that makes me a bandwagoner then you're a fool. 

 

 

Edit: or I'm completely misunderstanding you

 

TOP DEFINITION
  
In sports, someone who shamelessly cheers for a particular team not because he likes them or follows them faithfully, but only because that particular team is the "popular" choice or has been or is the top team in their specific sport recently. 
 
or you could just be the fair weather fan that cmilne23 referred to
 
 
Edited by jb_power

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3 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

TOP DEFINITION
  
In sports, someone who shamelessly cheers for a particular team not because he likes them or follows them faithfully, but only because that particular team is the "popular" choice or has been or is the top team in their specific sport recently. 
 
or you could just be the fair weather fan that cmilne23 referred to
 
 

Sure, I guess I'm Fairweather. But what's it matter to you? Why would you care if someone was a bandwagoner or not? Are you that bored?

 

I'm never going to cheer extstically for a losing team. Why would I? Why would I support hot garbage? Win a few, get me interested. I don't want to watch losers take the field. I want to watch championship caliber sports. You make 10 mil? Play like it.

 

And if you have a problem with that, JB, then good for you. Find something better to do with your time. Every team in every sport have fans who don't care when the team loses. That's reality. 

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9 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

I think there's a big difference between bandwagon fan and fair weather fan.  Bandwagon fans typically became fans during a winning season and have a tendency to find other allegiances when their "team" is playing bad.  Fair weather fans typically still pay attention they just don't put much effort into being a fan when the team sucks.  I'm pretty fairweather when it comes to the Mariners.  Am I really suppose to get excited about paying to see a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in 16 years play?  To sit in one of the worst traffic cities in America, to paying $30 dollars to park, to spend $9 bucks on a beer, to spend $12 bucks on a piece of pizza to watch a horse**** club boot the ball around for 3 hours and then get back in my car to sit in an hour of traffic?  If that makes me a fairweather fan so be it, but when you don't live right within easy access to a sports facility it's hard to get jacked up about spending any money on that team.

100% this. Multi billion dollar franchises that can't field a competitive team don't deserve my money. 

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1 minute ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Sure, I guess I'm Fairweather. But what's it matter to you? Why would you care if someone was a bandwagoner or not? Are you that bored?

 

I'm never going to cheer extstically for a losing team. Why would I? Why would I support hot garbage? Win a few, get me interested. I don't want to watch losers take the field. I want to watch championship caliber sports. You make 10 mil? Play like it.

 

And if you have a problem with that, JB, then good for you. Find something better to do with your time. Every team in every sport have fans who don't care when the team loses. That's reality. 

 

my time is my time and I'll do with it as I please.  and a good day to you too fairweatherblue

 

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It's an interesting conversation.  Anytime I try to talk Seahawks online other teams say I'm just a "bandwagoner" that term gets lobbed around casually as an insult to basically dismiss someone as being a fan.  To me there's no one right or wrong way to be a fan.  Everyone has varying circumstances to their lives that allow them to dictate a certain amount of time into something.  I have a friend who upgrades his season Mariners tickets every year and spends probably 20-25K total on the team a year even though they suck.  He just enjoys being a ballpark, hanging out and soaking up the atmosphere.  For me, I don't have that kind of free time anymore to exhaust on a horrible baseball team.  Baseball is the toughest sport to be a fan of a team during a losing season because the season is so damn long.  

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