BlueJaysIn2030

Toronto Blue Jays 2017 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Blue Jays are in a Mariners end of Bill Bavasi era rebuild.  A bunch of washed up vets with zero trade value.  They don't got many assets.  Going to be a long road back.  Good luck Jays fans.  As a Mariners fan don't get too down.  At least you made playoffs recently and have titles in time before your birth. 

 

Their assets at the major league level are pretty much washed up scrubs outside of Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, and a few others, but their system actually isn't that bad. Vladdy Jr, Tellez, Alford, Reid-Foley, Greene, Gurriel.... If they can deal Donaldson, Estrada, Happ and possibly one or two of Sanchez/Osuna/Stroman, they could very well have a nice young core ready to hit the majors at the same time in 2018 through 2020.

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11 minutes ago, Bash Bros said:

 

Their assets at the major league level are pretty much washed up scrubs outside of Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, and a few others, but their system actually isn't that bad. Vladdy Jr, Tellez, Alford, Reid-Foley, Greene, Gurriel.... If they can deal Donaldson, Estrada, Happ and possibly one or two of Sanchez/Osuna/Stroman, they could very well have a nice young core ready to hit the majors at the same time in 2018 through 2020.

I'd wager that out of those 6 only 2 become regular MLB players. Prospects are so difficult to project, and so few actually make it.

They need to keep Stroman and Sanchez. Why would you deal them?

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57 minutes ago, Bash Bros said:

 

Their assets at the major league level are pretty much washed up scrubs outside of Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, and a few others, but their system actually isn't that bad. Vladdy Jr, Tellez, Alford, Reid-Foley, Greene, Gurriel.... If they can deal Donaldson, Estrada, Happ and possibly one or two of Sanchez/Osuna/Stroman, they could very well have a nice young core ready to hit the majors at the same time in 2018 through 2020.

Why trade Sanchez or Stroman, their young, they can get decent value for Estrada and Happ as long as Happ is ok and Donaldson would get a nice haul except all the good teams have a good 3b evcept the Yankees, who have a lot of prospects or the Mets but they don't have much to give back, maybe the Astros if Bregman stays cold

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40 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I'd wager that out of those 6 only 2 become regular MLB players. Prospects are so difficult to project, and so few actually make it.

They need to keep Stroman and Sanchez. Why would you deal them?

 

I guess I wouldn't actively seek to trade them, but I'd definitely listen on any offers. If one comes your way that you can't refuse then pull the trigger.

 

Not all prospects will pan out but if they can stack their system with as many high upside prospects as possible and supplement that with a few FA additions then I think the future will be bright. That's why I'm not opposed to a complete tear down. 

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8 minutes ago, Bash Bros said:

 

I guess I wouldn't actively seek to trade them, but I'd definitely listen on any offers. If one comes your way that you can't refuse then pull the trigger.

 

Not all prospects will pan out but if they can stack their system with as many high upside prospects as possible and supplement that with a few FA additions then I think the future will be bright. That's why I'm not opposed to a complete tear down. 

Yeah, I was on board with a tear down in the offseason, to be honest. As soon as they passed on E5 I knew that head office was going to "screw it" and so they signed some nobodies. 

Agree about Stroman and Sanchez, but really... Who is going to offer you someone better than Sanchez? Especially as a starting pitcher? I think he needs to get signed ASAP.

And yeah, OK... so stack the prospects. But the 6 we have are hardly top prospects and are, really, pretty average (outside of what Vald Jr is showing). They might all become All-Stars, but the truth is that they are more likely to be nothing. 

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This isn't going to be a "blow it up" full rebuild as much as people want it to be. The contracts of Tulo and Martin paying them $20 million per year through the 2019 season are as good as immovable. Contrary to some posters' opinions, they aren't completely without skill - they are both excellent defensive players that will hit .250+ with 20-25 HRs each. Thats not $20 million worth of production, but it's enough that if you're stuck paying them why not at least attempt to win?

 

Donaldson is an MVP in his prime and still under arbitration control, so there is little incentive to trade him for anything less than highway robbery. And don't forget this pitching staff led all AL SPs in ERA last year, so they are capable. You clear Liriano's salary next year, and Estrada's as well if you want, or resign him at a similar rate. Morales is also signed on for 3 years at a reasonable price. 

 

As horrible as they look to start the year, I just don't see them a) being this bad all year, and B) being a team that does a total teardown, mainly because they can't. If you go into 2018 with some extra money from presumably letting Bautista and Liriano walk, you try to get some value players to fill in around the core guys you're "stuck" with, and hope for the best. 

 

Unless you find a real sucker to take some contracts, the Jays might as well use Donaldson's, Sanchez's, and Stroman's prime years along with the contracts they're stuck with to try and win however they can. Hopefully some of the prospects can transition in over the next couple years, and try to stockpile the cupboards in the meantime for the inevitable full on rebuild when some contracts clear. 

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54 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

This isn't going to be a "blow it up" full rebuild as much as people want it to be. The contracts of Tulo and Martin paying them $20 million per year through the 2019 season are as good as immovable. Contrary to some posters' opinions, they aren't completely without skill - they are both excellent defensive players that will hit .250+ with 20-25 HRs each. Thats not $20 million worth of production, but it's enough that if you're stuck paying them why not at least attempt to win?

 

Donaldson is an MVP in his prime and still under arbitration control, so there is little incentive to trade him for anything less than highway robbery. And don't forget this pitching staff led all AL SPs in ERA last year, so they are capable. You clear Liriano's salary next year, and Estrada's as well if you want, or resign him at a similar rate. Morales is also signed on for 3 years at a reasonable price. 

 

As horrible as they look to start the year, I just don't see them a) being this bad all year, and B) being a team that does a total teardown, mainly because they can't. If you go into 2018 with some extra money from presumably letting Bautista and Liriano walk, you try to get some value players to fill in around the core guys you're "stuck" with, and hope for the best. 

Yeah, no... Don't do that. Do what a lot of other teams with bad contracts do and trade them. Don't be silly.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

This isn't going to be a "blow it up" full rebuild as much as people want it to be. The contracts of Tulo and Martin paying them $20 million per year through the 2019 season are as good as immovable. Contrary to some posters' opinions, they aren't completely without skill - they are both excellent defensive players that will hit .250+ with 20-25 HRs each. Thats not $20 million worth of production, but it's enough that if you're stuck paying them why not at least attempt to win?

 

Donaldson is an MVP in his prime and still under arbitration control, so there is little incentive to trade him for anything less than highway robbery. And don't forget this pitching staff led all AL SPs in ERA last year, so they are capable. You clear Liriano's salary next year, and Estrada's as well if you want, or resign him at a similar rate. Morales is also signed on for 3 years at a reasonable price. 

 

As horrible as they look to start the year, I just don't see them a) being this bad all year, and B) being a team that does a total teardown, mainly because they can't. If you go into 2018 with some extra money from presumably letting Bautista and Liriano walk, you try to get some value players to fill in around the core guys you're "stuck" with, and hope for the best. 

 

Unless you find a real sucker to take some contracts, the Jays might as well use Donaldson's, Sanchez's, and Stroman's prime years along with the contracts they're stuck with to try and win however they can. Hopefully some of the prospects can transition in over the next couple years, and try to stockpile the cupboards in the meantime for the inevitable full on rebuild when some contracts clear. 

Gotta blowit up their in no mans land you can trade Martin to a team that needs a catcher to manage a staff like Seattle or the mets, and you trade Donaldson at the deadline because even though you have him for next year he won't stick around in free agency to be on a bad team, you can get the most for him this year

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2 hours ago, Bash Bros said:

 

Their assets at the major league level are pretty much washed up scrubs outside of Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, and a few others, but their system actually isn't that bad. Vladdy Jr, Tellez, Alford, Reid-Foley, Greene, Gurriel.... If they can deal Donaldson, Estrada, Happ and possibly one or two of Sanchez/Osuna/Stroman, they could very well have a nice young core ready to hit the majors at the same time in 2018 through 2020.

 

Happ, Estrada, Ozuna, Morales should all be moved.   Liriano and Martin as well. 

 

If the right package is offered for Donaldson him too.  

 

Edit: that's IF they don't turn it around by June.   

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46 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Happ, Estrada, Ozuna, Morales should all be moved.   Liriano and Martin as well. 

 

If the right package is offered for Donaldson him too.  

 

Edit: that's IF they don't turn it around by June.   

 

Agreed with everyone listed except for Ozuna.  He's still super young.  I'd add Tulo and Bautista (if possible).  

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7 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

Agreed with everyone listed except for Ozuna.  He's still super young.  I'd add Tulo and Bautista (if possible).  

 

The reason I included Ozuna is that given that he's young, cheap, and established they could get a TON for him.   Look at the returns guys like Will Smith, Chapman, Miller, and Jeffress brought back last year. 

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Yeah, no... Don't do that. Do what a lot of other teams with bad contracts do and trade them. Don't be silly.

 

Do you think anyone is taking 3 seasons of Martin or Tulo at $20 million per, even if you're giving them away? It doesn't seem that likely to me. And if you're stuck paying them in 2018 and 2019, I don't see why you don't use the current young core pitchers plus Donaldson and see if you can get a wild card spot. There's not a whole lot to gain from tanking in baseball. 

 

I'd think you're more likely to get something for players on expiring deals like Bautista, Estrada, etc. Contenders can use them without a long term commitment. Get some prospects for the expiring deals, then reinvest that money in short term deals in the offseason. If theyre out of it by summer 2018 you can do the same thing again and flip those short term deals for more prospects. 

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I think they'd trade JD for a monster package for sure. Hes nearly 30, can't rebuild around him and he'd get a ton of young assets in return. I would be very disappointed if they didn't trade him during a full rebuild.

 

The worst thing they can do is wallow in mediocrity for a long time. Just tank and tank hard.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Do you think anyone is taking 3 seasons of Martin or Tulo at $20 million per, even if you're giving them away? It doesn't seem that likely to me. And if you're stuck paying them in 2018 and 2019, I don't see why you don't use the current young core pitchers plus Donaldson and see if you can get a wild card spot. There's not a whole lot to gain from tanking in baseball. 

 

I'd think you're more likely to get something for players on expiring deals like Bautista, Estrada, etc. Contenders can use them without a long term commitment. Get some prospects for the expiring deals, then reinvest that money in short term deals in the offseason. If theyre out of it by summer 2018 you can do the same thing again and flip those short term deals for more prospects. 

The Angels traded Josh Hamilton. The Jays would just need to eat some money for the length of the contracts.

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19 minutes ago, !!! said:

I think they'd trade JD for a monster package for sure. Hes nearly 30,


JD is already 31, he's in his prime right now but with the age not sure how much he will fetch

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8 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Do you think anyone is taking 3 seasons of Martin or Tulo at $20 million per, even if you're giving them away? It doesn't seem that likely to me. And if you're stuck paying them in 2018 and 2019, I don't see why you don't use the current young core pitchers plus Donaldson and see if you can get a wild card spot. There's not a whole lot to gain from tanking in baseball. 

 

I'd think you're more likely to get something for players on expiring deals like Bautista, Estrada, etc. Contenders can use them without a long term commitment. Get some prospects for the expiring deals, then reinvest that money in short term deals in the offseason. If theyre out of it by summer 2018 you can do the same thing again and flip those short term deals for more prospects. 

Yeah, I can think of a few deals off the top of my head that were viewed as much worse, and those players were moved: Vernon Wells, Josh Hamilton and Carl Crawford. So yes, I think they can move anyone on the team.

"Core of young pitchers"? There are 2. Happ is in his 30s, Estrada is a peak value, and Liriano is not young. Regardless, do you think that the following players are enough to make a WC spot in the AL East in 2018?

  • Donaldson, Martin, Tulowitzki, Molasses, Smoak, Travis, Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, Liriano, and Estrada

You think that gets the job done? If so, then you give your head a shake and look around the American League. That is a very average lineup.

"There's not a whole lot to gain from tanking in baseball"... yeah, tell that to the Astros, Indians, Cubs, Braves, Phillies, etc, etc, etc.

 

No one is going to give you anything for Bautista. Why would they? He is completely lost and father time has claimed another victim. No one wanted him in the offseason after posting a 800+ OPS, why would they want him now when he can barely make contact with the ball?

You can't just "do the same thing again" in 2018. All these guys are a year older then.

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2 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Blue Jays suck

 

talk about a window slammed shut

 

Oh let me guess, our dairy farms and lumber suck too?  Go pick on North Korea or something.

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Just now, smeeze said:

 

Oh let me guess, our dairy farms and lumber suck too?  Go pick on North Korea or something.

oh feeling that tariff on your lumber already I see

 

don't be mad because America is first....America is first...believe me

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@BlueJaysIn2030 I think you need to take a step back and try to have an actual discussion about this without using condescending language like "give your head a shake" and "yeah, no . . . don't do that".  If you can't discuss the topic without getting all worked up then maybe you need to take a breather.

 

I guess overall I just think "tanking" in baseball is pointless, and I will tell that to the plethora of teams that have been rebuilding for the past decade, like the Phillies, Reds, D-Backs, Brewers, etc. with nothing to show for it.  The teams you point out as rebuilding success stories like the Cubs or Indians, I really question how much "tanking" has to do with their current success.  The Cubs stank for years and years, and now that they're successful it's on the backs of some players that anyone could have acquired for next to nothing.  Rizzo and Arrieta were 'prospects' that had lost their shine and were picked up for next to nothing - that's all on the Cubs' scouting department, and has no relevance to rebuilding or not, since they didn't have to deal anything of value for them.  Lester was a FA signing.  The same goes for the Indians - a lot of their core players were either picked up for cheap or drafted in later rounds, so them stinking for several years didn't help the process, they just reaped the rewards of good scouting on players any other team could have gotten.  

 

You look around pro sports, and it seems to me like draft position is much less relevant / important in baseball than it is in other sports.  A sport like hockey or basketball you need a requisite amount of high end talent to compete, and if you don't have it, tanking for a better draft position is a viable option because you get a player that can step in right away (or in the next year or two) and be an impact player.  In baseball, the draft is long, there are a lot more positions, and the development curve is so much longer that it makes it that much harder to predict who will become a star.  You'll get the odd A-Rod or Harper at the top of a draft that works out and blossoms, but far more often you see the same teams constantly drafting in the top 10 every year, still "rebuilding".  

 

The Rockies have had 12 top-10 draft picks since 2000, who were: Matt Harrington, Jeff Francis, Ian Stewart, Chris Nelson, Tulo, Gregory Reynolds, Casey Weathers, David Dahl, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Brendan Rodgers, and Riley Pint.  The Pirates have had 11 top-10 picks in that same span: John VanBenchschoten, Bryan Bullington, Paul Maholm, McCutcheon, Brad Lincoln, Daniel Moskos, Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez, Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, Mark Appel, and Austin Meadows.  Not exactly a great success rate.  Is it really worth it to "blow it up"?

 

When I think of MLB organizations that I'd want the Jays to mimic, I'm thinking of teams like the Cardinals and Giants, who always seem to be competitive, and never "blow up" their entire roster.  They stick with their core players, and if they're having a down year maybe trade off some pieces for prospects, but come right back the next year with that same core, mixed in with some youth and some low-risk FA's.  Neither of these teams has a lineup full of All Stars like some people seem to expect you need to compete, but rather they hold onto their best players and put capable players around them.  

 

This is getting very long winded, and of course is all my opinion, but I don't think you build a winner now or down the road by trading away stars like Donaldson, when the likelihood of ever developing another player of his caliber is slim to none with the prospects you get back.  Everyone likes to laugh at the Angels, but over the past 10 years they have the 3rd best record in MLB.  Even going through down years they aren't trading Trout, because they are just a few pieces around him from being a winning team.  I know Donaldson is older, but I think his talent level is very close to on par with Trout.  If you're following the model of the winningest teams in the MLB from the last decade, you hold onto your core players (Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna), and likely the veterans that come on reasonable deals and help the team compete (Estrada, Happ, Morales), and if you're losing big at the deadline then dump off whatever dead weight you can for cheap (Bautista, Tulo, Martin if you can), and reboot for next year with some new pieces around your core players.  Keep drafting smart and scouting well and the prospects will develop, whether the Jays at the MLB level are winning or losing.  

 

Anyways, that's my rant on this topic.  Doesn't seem to be a popular opinion, but I just don't see the gain in blowing it up to purposely stink for the next 5+ years, other than to have that reassurance that we don't expect the Jays to win anything again for a while.  I'm all for gaining some prospects for expendable and aging players at the deadline if things don't turn around, but I also think you keep that core around and fill in the holes that have been exposed.  And for what it's worth I highly doubt "in real life" Shapiro is blowing this thing up the way many posters seem to want.   

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Donaldson for Bregman and AJ Reed. 

Make it so. As a Torontonian, Jays fan and fantasy baseball player this makes so much sense to me. 

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2 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

@BlueJaysIn2030 I think you need to take a step back and try to have an actual discussion about this without using condescending language like "give your head a shake" and "yeah, no . . . don't do that".  If you can't discuss the topic without getting all worked up then maybe you need to take a breather.

 

I guess overall I just think "tanking" in baseball is pointless, and I will tell that to the plethora of teams that have been rebuilding for the past decade, like the Phillies, Reds, D-Backs, Brewers, etc. with nothing to show for it.  The teams you point out as rebuilding success stories like the Cubs or Indians, I really question how much "tanking" has to do with their current success.  The Cubs stank for years and years, and now that they're successful it's on the backs of some players that anyone could have acquired for next to nothing.  Rizzo and Arrieta were 'prospects' that had lost their shine and were picked up for next to nothing - that's all on the Cubs' scouting department, and has no relevance to rebuilding or not, since they didn't have to deal anything of value for them.  Lester was a FA signing.  The same goes for the Indians - a lot of their core players were either picked up for cheap or drafted in later rounds, so them stinking for several years didn't help the process, they just reaped the rewards of good scouting on players any other team could have gotten.  

 

You look around pro sports, and it seems to me like draft position is much less relevant / important in baseball than it is in other sports.  A sport like hockey or basketball you need a requisite amount of high end talent to compete, and if you don't have it, tanking for a better draft position is a viable option because you get a player that can step in right away (or in the next year or two) and be an impact player.  In baseball, the draft is long, there are a lot more positions, and the development curve is so much longer that it makes it that much harder to predict who will become a star.  You'll get the odd A-Rod or Harper at the top of a draft that works out and blossoms, but far more often you see the same teams constantly drafting in the top 10 every year, still "rebuilding".  

 

The Rockies have had 12 top-10 draft picks since 2000, who were: Matt Harrington, Jeff Francis, Ian Stewart, Chris Nelson, Tulo, Gregory Reynolds, Casey Weathers, David Dahl, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Brendan Rodgers, and Riley Pint.  The Pirates have had 11 top-10 picks in that same span: John VanBenchschoten, Bryan Bullington, Paul Maholm, McCutcheon, Brad Lincoln, Daniel Moskos, Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez, Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, Mark Appel, and Austin Meadows.  Not exactly a great success rate.  Is it really worth it to "blow it up"?

 

When I think of MLB organizations that I'd want the Jays to mimic, I'm thinking of teams like the Cardinals and Giants, who always seem to be competitive, and never "blow up" their entire roster.  They stick with their core players, and if they're having a down year maybe trade off some pieces for prospects, but come right back the next year with that same core, mixed in with some youth and some low-risk FA's.  Neither of these teams has a lineup full of All Stars like some people seem to expect you need to compete, but rather they hold onto their best players and put capable players around them.  

 

This is getting very long winded, and of course is all my opinion, but I don't think you build a winner now or down the road by trading away stars like Donaldson, when the likelihood of ever developing another player of his caliber is slim to none with the prospects you get back.  Everyone likes to laugh at the Angels, but over the past 10 years they have the 3rd best record in MLB.  Even going through down years they aren't trading Trout, because they are just a few pieces around him from being a winning team.  I know Donaldson is older, but I think his talent level is very close to on par with Trout.  If you're following the model of the winningest teams in the MLB from the last decade, you hold onto your core players (Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna), and likely the veterans that come on reasonable deals and help the team compete (Estrada, Happ, Morales), and if you're losing big at the deadline then dump off whatever dead weight you can for cheap (Bautista, Tulo, Martin if you can), and reboot for next year with some new pieces around your core players.  Keep drafting smart and scouting well and the prospects will develop, whether the Jays at the MLB level are winning or losing.  

 

Anyways, that's my rant on this topic.  Doesn't seem to be a popular opinion, but I just don't see the gain in blowing it up to purposely stink for the next 5+ years, other than to have that reassurance that we don't expect the Jays to win anything again for a while.  I'm all for gaining some prospects for expendable and aging players at the deadline if things don't turn around, but I also think you keep that core around and fill in the holes that have been exposed.  And for what it's worth I highly doubt "in real life" Shapiro is blowing this thing up the way many posters seem to want.   

I agree with you on some points but there comes a time when your good core players are too old which is what has happened to the jays, they have a hard time getting top free agents due to the tax code up here, they have to build through the draft or with trades, this team can't regain their playoff form, their not good enough, so why be mediocre and let father time kill your team, at least get something for those guys while you can, this team is going nowhere, i sat through 22 years of crap because they were trying to contend every year and were mediocre instead of blowing it up, look at Boston, all their good players they got in the draft, or through trades, now the White Sox and Padres are trying the blow it up method and look at what the Yanks got trading two bullpen arms, time will tell but i think this is the trend going forward, your team iseither a contender or really bad if your in the middle you always will be 22 years showed me that

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7 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I agree with you on some points but there comes a time when your good core players are too old which is what has happened to the jays, they have a hard time getting top free agents due to the tax code up here, they have to build through the draft or with trades, this team can't regain their playoff form, their not good enough, so why be mediocre and let father time kill your team, at least get something for those guys while you can, this team is going nowhere, i sat through 22 years of crap because they were trying to contend every year and were mediocre instead of blowing it up, look at Boston, all their good players they got in the draft, or through trades, now the White Sox and Padres are trying the blow it up method and look at what the Yanks got trading two bullpen arms, time will tell but i think this is the trend going forward, your team iseither a contender or really bad if your in the middle you always will be 22 years showed me that

 

The higher income tax for guys playing in Toronto is actually a myth.  The taxes they pay is actually on par with places like NY and LA and you'll never see guys turn down contracts to either city based on taxes.  Additonally, they'll only end up paying about 2.7% (at the time of writing of the article below; ~2015 I believe) more than guys playing in states like Florida and Texas, known for their lack of state income taxes.  

 

http://probballreport.com/the-myth-american-athletes-pay-more-tax-in-toronto-blown-away/

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18 minutes ago, Gandalfthecat said:

Donaldson for Bregman and AJ Reed. 

Make it so. As a Torontonian, Jays fan and fantasy baseball player this makes so much sense to me. 

1B  Tellez/Mcbroom

2B  Travis

3B  Vlad Jr

SS  Bichette

C    McGuire/Pentacost

CF  Alford

RF  Gurriel Jr

LF Pompey

 

I think 1B/3B is covered in the future.

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1 minute ago, TheBoatmen said:

1B  Tellez/Mcbroom

2B  Travis

3B  Vlad Jr

SS  Bichette

C    McGuire/Pentacost

CF  Alford

RF  Gurriel Jr

LF Pompey

 

I think 1B/3B is covered in the future.

 

Anybody got a time machine so we can fast-forward to 2019?

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