BlueJaysIn2030

Toronto Blue Jays 2017 Outlook

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1 minute ago, TheBoatmen said:

1B  Tellez/Mcbroom

2B  Travis

3B  Vlad Jr

SS  Bichette

C    McGuire/Pentacost

CF  Alford

RF  Gurriel Jr

LF Pompey

 

I think 1B/3B is covered in the future.

Not enough for JD, Reed got beat out by Guriel so how good is he and Bregman hasn't shown much so far, need a lot more for JD

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7 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

The higher income tax for guys playing in Toronto is actually a myth.  The taxes they pay is actually on par with places like NY and LA and you'll never see guys turn down contracts to either city based on taxes.  Additonally, they'll only end up paying about 2.7% (at the time of writing of the article below; ~2015 I believe) more than guys playing in states like Florida and Texas, known for their lack of state income taxes.  

 

http://probballreport.com/the-myth-american-athletes-pay-more-tax-in-toronto-blown-away/

They still end up paying a little more so if you had to choose between Ny, LA or Toronto, where do you think most guys will go? Not here, Our tax code Doesn't help matters 3% of 100 million is 3 mill not chump change. Even if its not the reason, they still have are hard time getting free agents (good ones) for whatever reason they have to go about building their team in other ways

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Just now, azeri98 said:

They still end up paying a little more so if you had to choose between Ny, LA or Toronto, where do you think most guys will go? Not here, Our tax code Doesn't help matters 3% of 100 million is 3 mill not chump change. Even if its not the reason, they still have are hard time getting free agents (good ones) for whatever reason they have to go about building their team in other ways

 

Oh no question most guys will choose NY or LA over TO 100% of the time... just wanted to dispell the myth that income taxes in Ontario are prohibitive when it comes to signing free agents.  There's a bunch of other reasons why Toronto probably wouldn't be a lot of guys' first choice.

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17 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I agree with you on some points but there comes a time when your good core players are too old which is what has happened to the jays, they have a hard time getting top free agents due to the tax code up here, they have to build through the draft or with trades, this team can't regain their playoff form, their not good enough, so why be mediocre and let father time kill your team, at least get something for those guys while you can, this team is going nowhere, i sat through 22 years of crap because they were trying to contend every year and were mediocre instead of blowing it up, look at Boston, all their good players they got in the draft, or through trades, now the White Sox and Padres are trying the blow it up method and look at what the Yanks got trading two bullpen arms, time will tell but i think this is the trend going forward, your team iseither a contender or really bad if your in the middle you always will be 22 years showed me that

 

Boston is one of the exact reasons I'm saying it's ridiculous to blow this up completely!  Go back to 2012 and the Sox were last place, and while they made some trades to dump some ugly contracts (A-Gonz, Crawford, etc) like I'd agree the Jays should do around the deadline with guys like Tulo and Bautista, they kept that core of David Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Lester in tact, despite them not being the youngest core group around.  After doing some re-tooling for 2013 and graduating some prospects, look what happened - World Series.  

 

You also look at their current young stars, and none of them were acquired through trades of veterans or by tanking / high draft picks.  Bogaerts was an international free agent based on some good old fashioned scouting work (much like Vlad Jr.).  Mookie was a 5th round pick - everyone passed on him multiple times, so anyone could have had him.  The Sox are winning because they have the perfect mix of tested vets that have been there through it all (keeping Pedroia, signing Han-Ram, etc) and young guy they've developed through good scouting, and they've never had to "blow it up" in any kind of grand fashion.

 

Just like the Sox in 2012, you move on to next year with your key cogs, add a few new pieces in the off season, and keep developing the guys you have and putting an emphasis on scouting.  You don't develop a winning culture and team by trading off any and all talent (including an MVP that will be near impossible to ever replace) and hoping you find lightning in a bottle and have a whole cluster of superstar rookies develop at the same time over the next few years.  

 

The Yankees also follow this model of keeping a core of players and adding and subtracting as needed over the years.  A guy like Jeter they never said "hmm, we should trade him this year to get some prospects because we're not making the playoffs."  They knew he was in it for the long haul, and that he'd be there to build around next year again.  

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35 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

Not enough for JD, Reed got beat out by Guriel so how good is he and Bregman hasn't shown much so far, need a lot more for JD

I actually think Bregman and Reed would be a nice haul for JD, and not just because I have Bregman on my fantasy team.

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46 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Boston is one of the exact reasons I'm saying it's ridiculous to blow this up completely!  Go back to 2012 and the Sox were last place, and while they made some trades to dump some ugly contracts (A-Gonz, Crawford, etc) like I'd agree the Jays should do around the deadline with guys like Tulo and Bautista, they kept that core of David Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Lester in tact, despite them not being the youngest core group around.  After doing some re-tooling for 2013 and graduating some prospects, look what happened - World Series.  

 

You also look at their current young stars, and none of them were acquired through trades of veterans or by tanking / high draft picks.  Bogaerts was an international free agent based on some good old fashioned scouting work (much like Vlad Jr.).  Mookie was a 5th round pick - everyone passed on him multiple times, so anyone could have had him.  The Sox are winning because they have the perfect mix of tested vets that have been there through it all (keeping Pedroia, signing Han-Ram, etc) and young guy they've developed through good scouting, and they've never had to "blow it up" in any kind of grand fashion.

 

Just like the Sox in 2012, you move on to next year with your key cogs, add a few new pieces in the off season, and keep developing the guys you have and putting an emphasis on scouting.  You don't develop a winning culture and team by trading off any and all talent (including an MVP that will be near impossible to ever replace) and hoping you find lightning in a bottle and have a whole cluster of superstar rookies develop at the same time over the next few years.  

 

The Yankees also follow this model of keeping a core of players and adding and subtracting as needed over the years.  A guy like Jeter they never said "hmm, we should trade him this year to get some prospects because we're not making the playoffs."  They knew he was in it for the long haul, and that he'd be there to build around next year again.  

Like i said i agree with you on most points except JD, can we agree this team is going nowhere in the next 2 years, do you really think he will resign here?  I don't. Yes he can't  be replaced but better to get something for him than nothing

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1 hour ago, azeri98 said:

They still end up paying a little more so if you had to choose between Ny, LA or Toronto, where do you think most guys will go? Not here, Our tax code Doesn't help matters 3% of 100 million is 3 mill not chump change. Even if its not the reason, they still have are hard time getting free agents (good ones) for whatever reason they have to go about building their team in other ways

Also a big problem used to be the exchange rate. The Jays would pay players in American money and the revenue was coming in Canadian. Not knowing the present rate it may not be true any longer though.

 

For example your 100m contract could need 105m just to cover it. Makes it harder to sign FA along with the cultural idea.

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5 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Also a big problem used to be the exchange rate. The Jays would pay players in American money and the revenue was coming in Canadian. Not knowing the present rate it may not be true any longer though.

 

For example your 100m contract could need 105m just to cover it. Makes it harder to sign FA along with the cultural idea.

 

As far as I know, the contracts are all reported in USD.

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4 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Also a big problem used to be the exchange rate. The Jays would pay players in American money and the revenue was coming in Canadian. Not knowing the present rate it may not be true any longer though.

 

For example your 100m contract could need 105m just to cover it. Makes it harder to sign FA along with the cultural idea.

 

That's still the case today, and with the current exchange rate being around $1 CAD = $ 0.74 USD it puts the Blue Jays at a disadvantage against other clubs.

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7 minutes ago, garlando said:

That's still the case today, and with the current exchange rate being around $1 CAD = $ 0.74 USD it puts the Blue Jays at a disadvantage against other clubs.

Doesn't even come close do the advantage they have from their Rogers owners.  We pay $100 per month for a decent cellular package, $100 per month for a decent TV package.  All my US friends tell me they pay $20.  Roger's can afford the 26 cents on the dollar difference.  

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53 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

Like i said i agree with you on most points except JD, can we agree this team is going nowhere in the next 2 years, do you really think he will resign here?  I don't. Yes he can't  be replaced but better to get something for him than nothing

 

I'm not trying to be a pain or argumentative, but I don't see why now is the time to trade JD.  We're one horrible month into a season that most thought the Jays would still be contenders.  JD is under team control another year, so why not take an arbitration deal for 2018, see if the team is any good, and then deal him next year if the team is still in the toilet?  

 

Don't forget we're still not that far into the season . . . playoffs are obviously hugely unlikely given their current record, but they're 5-5 in their last 10, and if they end up a .500ish team going into the offseason with some money to spend I wouldn't call that the "team is going nowhere".  There's still time before the "is JD going to walk" conundrum.

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30 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

Doesn't even come close do the advantage they have from their Rogers owners.  We pay $100 per month for a decent cellular package, $100 per month for a decent TV package.  All my US friends tell me they pay $20.  Roger's can afford the 26 cents on the dollar difference.  

And is the cellular, TV, and baseball just under one umbrella? Or is each a separate division under the Rogers name and having to show a profit?

 

Does make a difference. Would hate to see what a 20.00 cellular package would include. Sounds scarey knowing what I pay for both a landline and then cellular.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I'm not trying to be a pain or argumentative, but I don't see why now is the time to trade JD.  We're one horrible month into a season that most thought the Jays would still be contenders.  JD is under team control another year, so why not take an arbitration deal for 2018, see if the team is any good, and then deal him next year if the team is still in the toilet?  

 

Don't forget we're still not that far into the season . . . playoffs are obviously hugely unlikely given their current record, but they're 5-5 in their last 10, and if they end up a .500ish team going into the offseason with some money to spend I wouldn't call that the "team is going nowhere".  There's still time before the "is JD going to walk" conundrum.

I'm not saying trade him right now see where you are at the trade deadline and if they are out of it trade him then, they already have him signed next year, not much out there in free agency next year so if they are going to be good its with this group or via trade.

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14 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

1) I guess overall I just think "tanking" in baseball is pointless, and I will tell that to the plethora of teams that have been rebuilding for the past decade, like the Phillies, Reds, D-Backs, Brewers, etc. with nothing to show for it.  The teams you point out as rebuilding success stories like the Cubs or Indians, I really question how much "tanking" has to do with their current success.  The Cubs stank for years and years, and now that they're successful it's on the backs of some players that anyone could have acquired for next to nothing.  Rizzo and Arrieta were 'prospects' that had lost their shine and were picked up for next to nothing - that's all on the Cubs' scouting department, and has no relevance to rebuilding or not, since they didn't have to deal anything of value for them.  Lester was a FA signing.  The same goes for the Indians - a lot of their core players were either picked up for cheap or drafted in later rounds, so them stinking for several years didn't help the process, they just reaped the rewards of good scouting on players any other team could have gotten.  

 

2) You look around pro sports, and it seems to me like draft position is much less relevant / important in baseball than it is in other sports.  A sport like hockey or basketball you need a requisite amount of high end talent to compete, and if you don't have it, tanking for a better draft position is a viable option because you get a player that can step in right away (or in the next year or two) and be an impact player.  In baseball, the draft is long, there are a lot more positions, and the development curve is so much longer that it makes it that much harder to predict who will become a star.  You'll get the odd A-Rod or Harper at the top of a draft that works out and blossoms, but far more often you see the same teams constantly drafting in the top 10 every year, still "rebuilding".  

 

3) The Rockies have had 12 top-10 draft picks since 2000, who were: Matt Harrington, Jeff Francis, Ian Stewart, Chris Nelson, Tulo, Gregory Reynolds, Casey Weathers, David Dahl, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Brendan Rodgers, and Riley Pint.  The Pirates have had 11 top-10 picks in that same span: John VanBenchschoten, Bryan Bullington, Paul Maholm, McCutcheon, Brad Lincoln, Daniel Moskos, Pedro Alvarez, Tony Sanchez, Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole, Mark Appel, and Austin Meadows.  Not exactly a great success rate.  Is it really worth it to "blow it up"?

 

4) When I think of MLB organizations that I'd want the Jays to mimic, I'm thinking of teams like the Cardinals and Giants, who always seem to be competitive, and never "blow up" their entire roster.  They stick with their core players, and if they're having a down year maybe trade off some pieces for prospects, but come right back the next year with that same core, mixed in with some youth and some low-risk FA's.  Neither of these teams has a lineup full of All Stars like some people seem to expect you need to compete, but rather they hold onto their best players and put capable players around them.  

 

5) This is getting very long winded, and of course is all my opinion, but I don't think you build a winner now or down the road by trading away stars like Donaldson, when the likelihood of ever developing another player of his caliber is slim to none with the prospects you get back.  Everyone likes to laugh at the Angels, but over the past 10 years they have the 3rd best record in MLB.  Even going through down years they aren't trading Trout, because they are just a few pieces around him from being a winning team.  I know Donaldson is older, but I think his talent level is very close to on par with Trout.  If you're following the model of the winningest teams in the MLB from the last decade, you hold onto your core players (Donaldson, Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna), and likely the veterans that come on reasonable deals and help the team compete (Estrada, Happ, Morales), and if you're losing big at the deadline then dump off whatever dead weight you can for cheap (Bautista, Tulo, Martin if you can), and reboot for next year with some new pieces around your core players.  Keep drafting smart and scouting well and the prospects will develop, whether the Jays at the MLB level are winning or losing.  

1) Nah, tanking works. None of the teams you listed have ever tanked. They've been in perpetual "Are we rebuilding or not?" mode for a long time, though. I can buy into the player development/scouting being the most important factor, but at the same time you need to have a. not a lot money on your team and b. the ability to get picks/young players. The international game is huge.

2) That means they have failed at rebuilding. The onus is not on the process, but on the team management. How often in sports do you see teams go half in? They get bad for a year, get close to a playoff spot, trade for some guy, miss the playoffs, and BAM... back to square one. That isn't rebuilding.

3) Yes, because baseball is a business. Why would you pay a team a lot of money to be bad when you can pay them very little to be bad?

4) Sorry, but no all-star caliber players? Buster Posey, MadBum, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwight (pre-injury), Matt Holiday, Matt Carpenter all say "What's up?". Both of those teams have some incredibly good talent, and guess what? They also have really good prospects AND aren't teams that spend a crap ton of money on old players!

5) I understand what you're saying, but sadly we don't know what the core is. Of who you listed, Donaldson is the only one who plays every day. The rest of the team, outside of those guys, is very mediocre and won't be getting better next year... Except maybe Travis. 

Point is: The team is doing really bad and likely won't make the WC spot. This is the same roster for 2018. How do you think they will do in 2018? I'd say... bad.

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11 hours ago, Low and Away said:

And is the cellular, TV, and baseball just under one umbrella? Or is each a separate division under the Rogers name and having to show a profit?

 

Does make a difference. Would hate to see what a 20.00 cellular package would include. Sounds scarey knowing what I pay for both a landline and then cellular.

Different umbrella's but they also own the stadium and the TV rights/network.  If they could buy the beer company they would be coming completely self sufficient.

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#rockbottom

 

Ezekiel CARRERA hitting 3rd in an MLB lineup.  Mother of god.

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On 26/04/2017 at 10:34 PM, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

1) Nah, tanking works. None of the teams you listed have ever tanked. They've been in perpetual "Are we rebuilding or not?" mode for a long time, though. I can buy into the player development/scouting being the most important factor, but at the same time you need to have a. not a lot money on your team and b. the ability to get picks/young players. The international game is huge.

2) That means they have failed at rebuilding. The onus is not on the process, but on the team management. How often in sports do you see teams go half in? They get bad for a year, get close to a playoff spot, trade for some guy, miss the playoffs, and BAM... back to square one. That isn't rebuilding.

3) Yes, because baseball is a business. Why would you pay a team a lot of money to be bad when you can pay them very little to be bad?

4) Sorry, but no all-star caliber players? Buster Posey, MadBum, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwight (pre-injury), Matt Holiday, Matt Carpenter all say "What's up?". Both of those teams have some incredibly good talent, and guess what? They also have really good prospects AND aren't teams that spend a crap ton of money on old players!

5) I understand what you're saying, but sadly we don't know what the core is. Of who you listed, Donaldson is the only one who plays every day. The rest of the team, outside of those guys, is very mediocre and won't be getting better next year... Except maybe Travis. 

Point is: The team is doing really bad and likely won't make the WC spot. This is the same roster for 2018. How do you think they will do in 2018? I'd say... bad.

 

If you're so adamant tanking works in baseball then name some examples please. Again, I can easily point to teams like STL, SF, BOS, NYY, etc that you never see completely blowing up their rosters in a losing season, and they come right back the next year with some tweaks and compete. 

 

Also I never said SF and STL don't have ANY all stars . . . my whole point was they do have some and they don't trade them all away in a losing season like chicken little. What I said is that they don't have a lineup completely full of all stars. They keep the core guys and plug in some new pieces and win again next year. SF is in a similar position in the standings right now as the Jays, and I highly doubt you'll see them take on the losers mentality of trading away everyone over 28 for prospects. 

 

Overall your post is very long but I don't see any substance or examples of where what you're saying has worked. If it's your opinion they should fully rebuild let's see some examples of teams that gutted themselves for draft picks and prospects, and because of that found sustained success. In most cases you don't get better by losing all of your most talented players. You keep them and work on filling the holes through good scouting and shrewd signings. 

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24 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

If you're so adamant tanking works in baseball then name some examples please. Again, I can easily point to teams like STL, SF, BOS, NYY, etc that you never see completely blowing up their rosters in a losing season, and they come right back the next year with some tweaks and compete. 

 

Also I never said SF and STL don't have ANY all stars . . . my whole point was they do have some and they don't trade them all away in a losing season like chicken little. What I said is that they don't have a lineup completely full of all stars. They keep the core guys and plug in some new pieces and win again next year. SF is in a similar position in the standings right now as the Jays, and I highly doubt you'll see them take on the losers mentality of trading away everyone over 28 for prospects. 

 

Overall your post is very long but I don't see any substance or examples of where what you're saying has worked. If it's your opinion they should fully rebuild let's see some examples of teams that gutted themselves for draft picks and prospects, and because of that found sustained success. In most cases you don't get better by losing all of your most talented players. You keep them and work on filling the holes through good scouting and shrewd signings. 

Off the top of my head? Astros, Cubs, looking like Atlanta.

STL, SF, BOS, NYY... You realize BOS was absolutely terrible for a looooooong time, right? Yankees haven't been good in years. STL looks ready for a plunge, and SF is what? Last?

The reason why good teams stay good for so long is they keep young talent. They do well at developing players and hold them or make smart moves. I've seen the Jays make a few good moves, but the cupboards are pretty bare. The "stars" are aging. Cash in now, because Vlad Jr isn't coming up in 2018 and hitting .330/.400/.600... So tell me how keeping the core is the way to go? How will they be better in 2018 than this year?

 

Right now the best teams in baseball are all teams that have good, young players:

Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Angels

Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, Diamondbacks

 

 

Like, damn dude. It's May 2nd these teams have been better: Twins, Angels, Athletics, Giants, Padres, Braves, Mets, Pirates, Reds, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, White Sox

The only team worse is the Royals. The Jays are on a 3 game winning streak. Start the freaking parades. They haven't scored 100R yet, and are a -15 run differential so far (3rd worst in the AL).

 

Tell me how you see this season shaping up so that they can win it next year. If you can't tell me then I don't know why we're talking.

Edited by BlueJaysIn2030

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9 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Off the top of my head? Astros, Cubs, looking like Atlanta.

STL, SF, BOS, NYY... You realize BOS was absolutely terrible for a looooooong time, right? Yankees haven't been good in years. STL looks ready for a plunge, and SF is what? Last?

The reason why good teams stay good for so long is they keep young talent. They do well at developing players and hold them or make smart moves. I've seen the Jays make a few good moves, but the cupboards are pretty bare. The "stars" are aging. Cash in now, because Vlad Jr isn't coming up in 2018 and hitting .330/.400/.600... So tell me how keeping the core is the way to go? How will they be better in 2018 than this year?

 

Right now the best teams in baseball are all teams that have good, young players:

Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Angels

Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Rockies, Diamondbacks

 

 

Like, damn dude. It's May 2nd these teams have been better: Twins, Angels, Athletics, Giants, Padres, Braves, Mets, Pirates, Reds, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, White Sox

The only team worse is the Royals. The Jays are on a 3 game winning streak. Start the freaking parades. They haven't scored 100R yet, and are a -15 run differential so far (3rd worst in the AL).

 

Tell me how you see this season shaping up so that they can win it next year. If you can't tell me then I don't know why we're talking.

 

The Cubs won 90 games only ONCE between 1998 and 2014.  So yeah, that's proof tanking works, it only takes 16 years to be competitive. And that's if you call their mediocrity tanking and not just poor management. 

 

The Braves won the NL East every season for a ridiculous amount of years because they never tanked, and held their talent year to year. Since tanking they haven't even won 80 games in each of the last three seasons, and so far they're in last in thr division this year too. Not to mention the average age of their SPs is like 40. Again years of futility with no real end in sight. 

 

Houston has some good players now, but they're another team that hadn't seen the playoffs for 10 seasons between 2005 and 2015. So that's a bit better, only a decade of suckage to return to competitive play. 

 

If these are the best examples of tanking then count me out. 

 

Say what you will about the Yankees or any of the other teams I mentioned, but the facts show they are one of the most successful franchises in the last 15 years. Here's an interesting read that ranks teams since 2000 based on their results, and it's no shock the top 4 are the Yankees, Cards, Giants, and Red Sox. These are the teams everyone should be trying to emulate and see how they've sustained success. 

 

https://oneonethreesite.wordpress.com/2016/06/14/ranking-mlb-teams-since-2000/

 

It's also rich that you give some ultimatum about me having to detail a plan for winning in 2018 without you providing any plan other than "trade for prospects -> wait 10-15 years -> ??? -> profit", but luckily I have a rough idea on that too, so stay tuned for another post with that. 

 

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2 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

The Cubs won 90 games only ONCE between 1998 and 2014.  So yeah, that's proof tanking works, it only takes 16 years to be competitive. And that's if you call their mediocrity tanking and not just poor management. 

 

The Braves won the NL East every season for a ridiculous amount of years because they never tanked, and held their talent year to year. Since tanking they haven't even won 80 games in each of the last three seasons, and so far they're in last in thr division this year too. Not to mention the average age of their SPs is like 40. Again years of futility with no real end in sight. 

 

Houston has some good players now, but they're another team that hadn't seen the playoffs for 10 seasons between 2005 and 2015. So that's a bit better, only a decade of suckage to return to competitive play. 

 

If these are the best examples of tanking then count me out. 

 

Say what you will about the Yankees or any of the other teams I mentioned, but the facts show they are one of the most successful franchises in the last 15 years. Here's an interesting read that ranks teams since 2000 based on their results, and it's no shock the top 4 are the Yankees, Cards, Giants, and Red Sox. These are the teams everyone should be trying to emulate and see how they've sustained success. 

 

https://oneonethreesite.wordpress.com/2016/06/14/ranking-mlb-teams-since-2000/

 

It's also rich that you give some ultimatum about me having to detail a plan for winning in 2018 without you providing any plan other than "trade for prospects -> wait 10-15 years -> ??? -> profit", but luckily I have a rough idea on that too, so stay tuned for another post with that. 

 

I said "trade for prospects and wait 10-15 years"? Nah, son.

 

I said cash in on the talent that you can move right now because this team cannot compete with the Cubs or the Red Sox. Keep Sanchez and possibly Stroman. Move Tulo, Donaldson, Martin, etc and get some prospects and every day players. Take a year or two to retool. The tanking thing has been - to me at least - a side bar. I don't want the Jays to purposefully lose games, but if you're going to finish 4th or 5th in the division then you may as well cash in now.

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38 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I said "trade for prospects and wait 10-15 years"? Nah, son.

 

I said cash in on the talent that you can move right now because this team cannot compete with the Cubs or the Red Sox. Keep Sanchez and possibly Stroman. Move Tulo, Donaldson, Martin, etc and get some prospects and every day players. Take a year or two to retool. The tanking thing has been - to me at least - a side bar. I don't want the Jays to purposefully lose games, but if you're going to finish 4th or 5th in the division then you may as well cash in now.

 

The big bolded part is what you've failed to explain.  "Tanking" or whatever you want to call it, please explain or show any examples of teams that traded away every asset they had that was worth anything, including a 31 year old MVP, and then "retooled" within a year or two.  IT DOESN'T HAPPEN.  If the Jays trade everyone you listed there then they aren't sniffing 85 wins for 5+ years.  If you think that's what makes sense please elaborate on how you see that playing out, son.

Edited by handyandy86

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14 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

The big bolded part is what you've failed to explain.  "Tanking" or whatever you want to call it, please explain or show any examples of teams that traded away every asset they had that was worth anything, including a 31 year old MVP, and then "retooled" within a year or two.  IT DOESN'T HAPPEN.  If the Jays trade everyone you listed there then they aren't sniffing 85 wins for 5+ years.  If you think that's what makes sense please elaborate on how you see that playing out, son.

Does it actually matter, though, what they get? Do you honestly see this team - as it is now - getting to a WC spot? 

Do you see the same group doing it in 2018? 2019?

What assets will the Jays have to trade in 2018 that will let them stay competitive that they couldn't deal now in a lost season in order to get back to being competitive i a few years?

 

I don't really need to explain anything. I'm going to restate my stance: 

This team is currently losing 7-2 against the Yankeers. They are 9-17, 5th in their division. Their pitching has been average, their hitting has been poor, and two of their best players are on the DL. This is a lost season and in 2018 we're going to be looking at the same team. The only guys who become FA/Arb that are of any substance after this season are: Osuna, Grilli, Sanchez, Estrada, Pillar, Donaldson, Travis. Everyone else stays.

So assuming the team remains the same in 2018 and the budget is still around $166,000,000, I really fail to see how this team gets better. Does Tulo become a 30HR hitter? Does Molasses gain some speed and learn to play a position? Does Smoak turn into a real 1B? Does Travis stay healthy? Does Sanchez keep his fingers? Does Stroman really turn into this guy? Does Estrada come back? Does Happ's elbow fall off? Does Osuna get back to being an good closer? Does Martin get better at hitting all the sudden? 

So many questions. So so many. 

Again, I say: This team is going nowhere in 2017, and they will be essentially the same team in 2018. Why not trade some pieces now rather than wait until their value drops in another year? Why?

 

WHY?

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15 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Does it actually matter, though, what they get? Do you honestly see this team - as it is now - getting to a WC spot? 

Do you see the same group doing it in 2018? 2019?

What assets will the Jays have to trade in 2018 that will let them stay competitive that they couldn't deal now in a lost season in order to get back to being competitive i a few years?

 

I don't really need to explain anything. I'm going to restate my stance: 

This team is currently losing 7-2 against the Yankeers. They are 9-17, 5th in their division. Their pitching has been average, their hitting has been poor, and two of their best players are on the DL. This is a lost season and in 2018 we're going to be looking at the same team. The only guys who become FA/Arb that are of any substance after this season are: Osuna, Grilli, Sanchez, Estrada, Pillar, Donaldson, Travis. Everyone else stays.

So assuming the team remains the same in 2018 and the budget is still around $166,000,000, I really fail to see how this team gets better. Does Tulo become a 30HR hitter? Does Molasses gain some speed and learn to play a position? Does Smoak turn into a real 1B? Does Travis stay healthy? Does Sanchez keep his fingers? Does Stroman really turn into this guy? Does Estrada come back? Does Happ's elbow fall off? Does Osuna get back to being an good closer? Does Martin get better at hitting all the sudden? 

So many questions. So so many. 

Again, I say: This team is going nowhere in 2017, and they will be essentially the same team in 2018. Why not trade some pieces now rather than wait until their value drops in another year? Why?

 

WHY?

 

2017 might be a lost cause because of how big of a hole they'e gotten into early, but this is a team that has went to back to back ALCS' with this group.  Do you actually think everyone turned into pumpkins and one month of season defines their win potential for the rest of the season or next year?  A lot of your questions about specific Jays players are irrelevant or unfounded.

 

- Why does Tulo need to hit 30 HRs?  Being a 20-25 HR player with A+ defense at SS was plenty for the Jays to compete in 2015 and 2016, so not sure why we the team's 2018 hopes ride on him becoming a 30 HR player.

- Does Morales need to be fast and play a position?  He's a 25HR-95RBI switch hitter that makes $11 million per season.  If he put up those numbers with speed and defense then he's a $25+ million player.  Again this is misdirected anger.

- Smoak isn't a good 1B and should be replaced.  No argument there, that's a hole to fill.

- Sanchez, Donaldson, Happ, Osuna, all these injury issues killed the team in April, but you can't point at that as reason the team  won't compete in 2018.  Injuries happen, and you can't take relatively minor injuries to players that are otherwise usually healthy as reasons for long term futility.  Like how does that make sense?

- There's nothing wrong with Russell Martin's bat.  He's hit 20+ HRs in both his Jays seasons with .330 OBP, and so far in 2017 he's right on pace for 20-21 HRs and has a .360+ OBP.  That coupled with some of the best catching/game calling in the league.  What else do you want out of your cather??

 

The main reason the Jays have stunk it up so far in 2017 are a combination of injuries, and the bullpen.  Talk all you want about the hitting, but fact is the bullpen has lost 8 games and has an ERA of 4.44.  That's the difference between 9-17 and 17-9, and that's HUGE.  Their 96 runs scored are better by 1 run than the Red Sox have, despite being 4.5 GB them.  There's also been 5 games started by Mat Latos and Casey Lawrence so far, which is atrocious.  

 

Shapiro dropped the ball by not putting enough onus on improving the bullpen, and that's the key area they need to address for 2018.  The big holes in the lineup would be corner OF and 1B, and you don't need to fill those spots with superstars, just players better than Smoak and Carrera.  Estrada is really the only UFA you'd want to fight to keep.  

 

Between Liriano, Upton (yes we're still paying him $16+ million this year), Bautista, and some bad bullpen arms, there is over $57 million coming off the books for 2018, so don't try to pretend like the same payroll carries over to next year.  There's only $91 million committed to 2018 right now.  There's plenty of cash for 2018 to add some good bullpen arms and hopefully some speed and contact at the corner OF spots.  

 

I imagine as the team settles down and players come back from injury the Jays will end up around an 80 win team, and I don't see why with some tweaks and a better bullpen and a more fortunate April with injuries in 2018 the team can't add another 10-15 wins to that total.  

 

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8 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

1) 2017 might be a lost cause because of how big of a hole they'e gotten into early, but this is a team that has went to back to back ALCS' with this group.  Do you actually think everyone turned into pumpkins and one month of season defines their win potential for the rest of the season or next year?  A lot of your questions about specific Jays players are irrelevant or unfounded.

 

2) - Why does Tulo need to hit 30 HRs?  Being a 20-25 HR player with A+ defense at SS was plenty for the Jays to compete in 2015 and 2016, so not sure why we the team's 2018 hopes ride on him becoming a 30 HR player.

- Does Morales need to be fast and play a position?  He's a 25HR-95RBI switch hitter that makes $11 million per season.  If he put up those numbers with speed and defense then he's a $25+ million player.  Again this is misdirected anger.

- Smoak isn't a good 1B and should be replaced.  No argument there, that's a hole to fill.

- Sanchez, Donaldson, Happ, Osuna, all these injury issues killed the team in April, but you can't point at that as reason the team  won't compete in 2018.  Injuries happen, and you can't take relatively minor injuries to players that are otherwise usually healthy as reasons for long term futility.  Like how does that make sense?

- There's nothing wrong with Russell Martin's bat.  He's hit 20+ HRs in both his Jays seasons with .330 OBP, and so far in 2017 he's right on pace for 20-21 HRs and has a .360+ OBP.  That coupled with some of the best catching/game calling in the league.  What else do you want out of your cather??

 

3) The main reason the Jays have stunk it up so far in 2017 are a combination of injuries, and the bullpen.  Talk all you want about the hitting, but fact is the bullpen has lost 8 games and has an ERA of 4.44.  That's the difference between 9-17 and 17-9, and that's HUGE.  Their 96 runs scored are better by 1 run than the Red Sox have, despite being 4.5 GB them.  There's also been 5 games started by Mat Latos and Casey Lawrence so far, which is atrocious.  

 

4) Shapiro dropped the ball by not putting enough onus on improving the bullpen, and that's the key area they need to address for 2018.  The big holes in the lineup would be corner OF and 1B, and you don't need to fill those spots with superstars, just players better than Smoak and Carrera.  Estrada is really the only UFA you'd want to fight to keep.  

 

5) Between Liriano, Upton (yes we're still paying him $16+ million this year), Bautista, and some bad bullpen arms, there is over $57 million coming off the books for 2018, so don't try to pretend like the same payroll carries over to next year.  There's only $91 million committed to 2018 right now.  There's plenty of cash for 2018 to add some good bullpen arms and hopefully some speed and contact at the corner OF spots.  

 

6) I imagine as the team settles down and players come back from injury the Jays will end up around an 80 win team, and I don't see why with some tweaks and a better bullpen and a more fortunate April with injuries in 2018 the team can't add another 10-15 wins to that total.  

 

1) It's not the same group. Edwin is gone, and he could play some 1B and was much faster than Molasses. Donaldson, Happ and Sanchez are all hurt. This is not the same team. You keep talking about cores, there is 3 core players hurt right now... one of them since the start of the year.

2) Tulo - point is that he isn't a great hitter like he once was. In a year or two do you think he'll be a really good defensive SS still? I don't. 

Molasses - yes, he needs to be athletic to play a position. I've yet to see anything from him that shows me he's a 35+HR hitter this year. He's also 33 and 10 months... So in 2018 he's 35. It's a true shame that he's slow as a snail because if he could play 1B - even average defence - then I'd be all on board.

No, no. I can. All of them will be a year older. Stop discounting age and look at Bautista. Happ has no track record of success, and Donaldson can't play 3B forever. He's going to cost this team buckets of money that they do not have, which is the only reason I keep saying move him... If we could snag him for 2 years I'd be on board.

I want consistency from a guy who plays ~130 games a year making 17 million, that's all.

3) So you think the Jays will outscore the Red Sox this year? Come on.

4) No, he dropped the ball by moving too quickly on Molasses. Yeah, the BP is a priority, but some people were all aboard the Seth Smith/JP Howell train in this very thread. I've talked about it to death earlier, it stinks. But Shapiro should have went out and done whatever he could to field a winning team. I don't care if you make the ALCS... You got spanked. So you need to get better. You don't show up with the same group and hope for success. 

5) How much will Sanchez, Stroman, Donaldson and Estrada cost you? Assuming you want to sign them since they are the core. I'm going to guess over 60 million for the four.

6) How? Explain how they tweak this year/get a better bullpen? These were all moves that should have been done in the offseason.

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