Topgun

Ryan Schimpf 2017 Outlook

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20 bombs in 2016 with only 276 AB's, .217 BA, whoa, is he a platoon player in 2017 ? what can we expect ?

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I think he plays most days, but not all. Don't think he'll be platooned on that Padres team, but a lot will depend on that K-rate. The guy struck out over 30% of the time, but much lower in a few recent minor league seasons. I also think that 20HR is the minimum... 

 

I'm thinking:

120GP, 25HR, 60RBI/60R, .220-.235AVG

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I don't think the average gets too much better with platoons really. This dude is an EXTREME fly ball hitter. We're talking someone with a GB% that's approaching half of the league average, with extremely rare numbers. It's going to drive homers obviously, but he'll for sure be a massive drag for standard leagues in BA. 

 

The interesting thing about him though is that if his 12.7% BB% is even remotely sustainable, it makes him a pretty damn good player. Being able to hit only for power and have a .217 BA but still have a .336 OBP, that's a real skill. A .336 OBP and a .315 ISO will play in this line-up 100%. He kinda projects similarly how I'd project Trevor Story if he wasn't in Coors but walked a lot. His higher launch angle that Shimpf showed would lower the average a bit further than I'd predict for Story, as Story had a lot more LDs, but I think it's the closest comp I think of.

 

For Standard leagues, I see him as a lite-Chris Carter. I'll take Blue Jays 120 GP but a moderate projection for me would be.

 

28 HR, .221 BA, 62/64 R/RBI 

 

However, I'm worried that because of his tendencies to both pull and go all out, I'm concerned that he's going to have holes in this swing that are going to be exposed and make things worse on him as the book gets out. Will be hard to tell. I expect him to get pitched differently very soon, and I think that change may be the kind that forces him back to the minors. This could very well be a quad A guy, but he could be a cheap source of power, especially in OBP leagues if he sustained what he did last year. I probably won't have him anywhere personally, but I'm big on numbers and it's just a case of there are SO few hitters in the MLB who have a 64.9% FB%. That's REALLY  high. And so there's less data for it. 

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Not even gonna lie, I'm a huge fan and follower of the MLB, but my initial reaction to seeing this was to ask who Ryan Schimpf was

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40 minutes ago, NateLike8 said:

Not even gonna lie, I'm a huge fan and follower of the MLB, but my initial reaction to seeing this was to ask who Ryan Schimpf was

 

not that huge, apparently was 4th in NL in HR's by rookie despite only 276 AB's

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5 hours ago, NateLike8 said:

Not even gonna lie, I'm a huge fan and follower of the MLB, but my initial reaction to seeing this was to ask who Ryan Schimpf was

wow, I guess you just missed one. Looks like he will be the starting 2B for the Padres, has 2B/3B position eligibility in a lot of leagues with 14 games played at 3rd, that increases his value. Wonder if he's playing

winter ball ?

Edited by Topgun

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On 12/2/2016 at 5:26 PM, Golden Spikes said:

 

not that huge, apparently was 4th in NL in HR's by rookie despite only 276 AB's

Yeah, not entirely sure how I missed this guy :/

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wasn't this guy red hot for a short period of time and then do basically nothing afterward? i remember his name and reading some of his thread last season, and admittedly I don't know much about him, but he screams flash in the pan to me. not to mention he's as homerun guy with horrible average playing for SD.. he's not even going to see his full fantasy potential due to his home park.

maybe a cheap source of power, but at what cost.. no steals and little chance for runs/rbis. combine that with a 200 average and you get a stinker.

usable as a fantasy platoon player who you only start on the road vs RHP?

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He was pretty putrid against lefties struck out 25 times in 51 at  bats, and hit .150something.  But not sure he was ever red hot, he had two pretty good power months in July and August, September dropped off a bit.  

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Not a fan at all with that k rate over 30%. Big power with massive contact issues could be Adam Dunn...but it is more likely Oswaldo Arcia.

 

i think the odds are that he is fantasy irrelevant and barely major league relevant.

 

big power though so obviously there's some to like. Good luck if you take the plunge.

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I'm in on Schimpf this year.  He's a nice late-round power option.  Projected to hit 25-30 bombs.  I'll take it.

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On December 2, 2016 at 6:44 PM, NateLike8 said:

Not even gonna lie, I'm a huge fan and follower of the MLB, but my initial reaction to seeing this was to ask who Ryan Schimpf was

 

Only reason I knew who him was because he played at LSU, lol. Was on our last championship team, but I never thought he'd make it to the Majors. 

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On 12/2/2016 at 7:44 PM, NateLike8 said:

Not even gonna lie, I'm a huge fan and follower of the MLB, but my initial reaction to seeing this was to ask who Ryan Schimpf was

 

you have overvalued your knowledge of MLB if you had no idea who this guy was, and that goes without saying....

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10 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

 

you have overvalued your knowledge of MLB if you had no idea who this guy was, and that goes without saying....

Well it was going without saying. Then you went and said it.

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3 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Well it was going without saying. Then you went and said it.

There are always 1-2 guys each year who their numbers are like...who is that?  What did they do? 

 

Suarez was probably that guy for me this year, didnt realize his numbers.  

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He had a walk rate between 10.4% and 15.8% in each of the 4 months June, July, August, Sept/Oct in the majors.  

 

Could be an OBP and OPS league gem... AVG leagues he may hurt you there a lot but for a late round guy in OBP and OPS why not?

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The draft price will be minimal, the upside is 35 hr's.  Sounds like a great flyer to me!!  Obviously, he could hit below .200 in April and lose his job.  If he's hot, he's a terrific late pick.  Their poor offense will likely limit his run/rbi opportunities, but the HR upside is high.  Just don't forget he'll be 29 years old by week 2...he's not a prospect.

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He's a guy who's easy to overlook. I'm sure most people who did pick him up last year were either dealing with injuries to starters or were chasing homers and looked specifically for someone who seemed to be on a power binge. If you weren't in those situations then a player on a bad team with a putrid average would completely fly under the radar.

 

I don't know about his glove but his batting stats are reminiscent of Adam Dunn. Big swing, a lot of Ks but a good number of walks. That can be a valuable fantasy commodity as long as he gets regular playing time. Petco isn't the abyss that it used to be, but it would be great is Schimpf could get traded to a bandbox where his strengths would be maximized.

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1 hour ago, phizzics said:

I don't know about his glove but his batting stats are reminiscent of Adam Dunn. 

 

Just a whole lot smaller, lol. 

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For me his value came with the dual eligibility (2nd, 3rd) in Yahoo on two rebuilding dynasties. He was a player that was easy to overlook in the minors with age and no hype.  Without that dual he would lose a lot of luster as a daily bench bat.

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On 12/7/2016 at 11:29 PM, fawkes_mulder said:

Not a fan at all with that k rate over 30%. Big power with massive contact issues could be Adam Dunn...but it is more likely Oswaldo Arcia.

 

i think the odds are that he is fantasy irrelevant and barely major league relevant.

 

big power though so obviously there's some to like. Good luck if you take the plunge.

 

the thing about him is that his minor league K% wasn't really that bad. the past 2 years he brought it down from the mid-20s to like 17, 18%. he probably can't do that in the majors but it hints to me that he might have it in him to bring it down from 30 to like 25, which can make a big difference in viability on guys like this.

 

the fact that he isn't a lumbering 1B/DH also helps, of course. when a guy has that kind of power and also actually owns a glove, it gets easier to find patience with his flaws. 

 

he's so short and old, though. weird player. i'm angry that i passed on him in my league. i'm usually the one who annoys everybody else by getting guys like this. just barely missed the boat on this one. he was a little too old even for me so he slipped past my filters. 

 

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I think 8 of his 20HR were luck or just enough according to ESPN HR Tracker.  He was up for 4months, his middle two months of July and August were really pretty solid.  16HR over those two months and like a .370OBP.  Its the other two months of June and September that were not very good.  June he batted like .100

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19 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I think 8 of his 20HR were luck or just enough according to ESPN HR Tracker.  He was up for 4months, his middle two months of July and August were really pretty solid.  16HR over those two months and like a .370OBP.  Its the other two months of June and September that were not very good.  June he batted like .100

 

eh, luck, just enough... i'm not gonna get mad about stuff like that. he also plays in san diego. it's not as bad as it was, but it's still heavy air. he hits a completely insane % of fly balls; some of 'em just barely creep over the wall; the system works. i think the power is at least real enough. to me the question is just whether or not the pitchers are going to figure out a way to destroy him or not. 

 

he was also rrrrraking in AAA. sure it was the PCL, but there's only two AAA leagues and that's one of them... minimum 100 PAs, schimpf's ISO was 43 points higher than the next best guy (haniger) out of everybody else who was also hitting in the PCL. of course there's some inflation in there but i don't think you can completely fake that

 

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6 hours ago, parrothead said:

I think 8 of his 20HR were luck or just enough according to ESPN HR Tracker.  He was up for 4months, his middle two months of July and August were really pretty solid.  16HR over those two months and like a .370OBP.  Its the other two months of June and September that were not very good.  June he batted like .100

 

Owned him last year and watched all his HRs and this was my take as well. A good deal cleared the fences by only a few rows. Given his body build and the HR surplus from a juiced ball, it's tough for me to buy in. In a H2H format, due to the avg and streakiness, he's a tough sell. Although roster specific depending on team construction and league format.

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22 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

the thing about him is that his minor league K% wasn't really that bad. the past 2 years he brought it down from the mid-20s to like 17, 18%. he probably can't do that in the majors but it hints to me that he might have it in him to bring it down from 30 to like 25, which can make a big difference in viability on guys like this.

 

the fact that he isn't a lumbering 1B/DH also helps, of course. when a guy has that kind of power and also actually owns a glove, it gets easier to find patience with his flaws. 

 

he's so short and old, though. weird player. i'm angry that i passed on him in my league. i'm usually the one who annoys everybody else by getting guys like this. just barely missed the boat on this one. he was a little too old even for me so he slipped past my filters. 

 

Because he's patient and working into a counts, it also puts him in more 2 Strike counts and if he doesn't have a great 2 strike approach. He's always gonna K a lot, given his extreme launch angle type swing is bound for holes to exploite.  Given his career profile and MLB sample. He doesn't strike me as the type that will ever shorten the swing to counts.

Edited by Slatykamora

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