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Yoan Moncada 2017 Outlook

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11 hours ago, eflo2211 said:

Once he gets in a groove, then you play him.  But he shouldn't be in anyone's lineups at this point.  And I can totally see how he is being dropped in leagues that do not have keeper status.  Aaron Judge was dropped in many leagues last year as well as others call-ups mentioned in this thread.  Keeper status is the key.  Otherwise, there are better immediate/temp options on waivers to play.

 

This kid is gonna be special in time though.

I'm in an 8 teamer 5x5 roto keeper (keep 3) and i dropped odor for him. Paid 5 for the transaction fee also and I have no bench spots either so yes I play him everyday in a shallow league and I'm 100% not keeping him either and feel fine about the move. Absolutely way to soon to drop him,makes no sense.  I figured I'd take the risk with him since Odor was 0 for every day and I'm 2nd overall with not much sacrificed in standings if moncada didn't work. 

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2 hours ago, cdd10 said:

was trout's hit tool his biggest question mark coming into the majors?

 

Yes Trout and Moncada are two completely different dudes and prospects. 

 

Moncada's hit tool is fine. He's been hitting .278 to .282 in his 2.5 years in the minors. Heck he just turned 22, maybe he could hit .300 one day. 

His batting eye is great. His BB% has consistently been between 11.6 and 15.8%. 12.5% is considered great and 15% is excellent. He could easily have a 14-15% BB% with a little growth. His BB% in the majors this year is 12.5%. 

 

His .OBP is really really good (in the minors) and if you've been watching his at bats you can see why. His current MLB 25K% is actually lower than it was in AAA. Right now people are tempting him with garbage early and seeing if he'll nibble at it. I'm seeing those low and away sliders and breaking balls buried down. If he continues to stay patient and collect his walks, then he will see better and better pitches to hit. I doubt he's going to have a .143 BABIP all season because he's also consistently outperformed the league average .BABIP. 

 

Look his team is garbage and he's a rookie. I wouldn't grab him in a redraft unless you are desperate for steals or have garbage at 2B/3B. But people saying he's garbage and just the same kid as he was with the Red Sox are not paying attention to what he did in the minors, and what his day to day at bats look like in the majors this year. 

 

I'm a believer. 

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Why is nobody talking about his HR tonight? Off Arrieta, a 79 MPH low breaking ball that he muscled out to straight CF. Was a crazy impressive power display.

 

Yet let's argue about him. 

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1 hour ago, shaggingsince83 said:

Why is nobody talking about his HR tonight? Off Arrieta, a 79 MPH low breaking ball that he muscled out to straight CF. Was a crazy impressive power display.

 

Yet let's argue about him. 

 

Solid homer. Great teammate moment afterwards where they did the traditional ignore him on his 1st career homer.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

Since some people in this thread clearly need it, here's an excellent article from Fangraphs about when sample sizes start to become meaningful for various measures. Enjoy!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

 

Not to get off topic but the HBP rate is the most interesting to me. I know some guys get hit more than others but I would have expected the stabilization point to be a lot higher. I guess it really is a "skill".

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You guys aren't concerned he'll turn into Buxton 2.0?

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Problem with buxton is that his legkick swing supposedly wasnt working and twins been trying to reinvent the wheel with his sswing and turn him to hit for higher avg but bascially turn him into infield hits man.... I think Moncada's swing doesnt have those holes like Buxton does(according to twins).

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Anyone who's seen him hit yet? A couple of my guys have tough matchups so I'm thinking of starting him. It's tough to tell with the SSS, but the BABIP is quite low - hard contact isn't bad. Strikeouts have been fine considering who we're discussing lol.

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2 hours ago, fletch44 said:

Batting cleanup tonight

Batting cleanup in white Sox lineup = 9 hitter in regular lineup.  Just kidding.  But what's the consensus on this guy?  I thought he'd be more 1-2 hitter with his speed.  Does he project as a more middle of the order bat?

Edited by Cmilne23

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2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Batting cleanup in white Sox lineup = 9 hitter in regular lineup.  Just kidding.  But what's the consensus on this guy?  I thought he'd be more 1-2 hitter with his speed.  Does he project as a more middle of the order bat?

For me he is a number One/Two hitter, but I'm sure the Sox are waiting for him to start getting on base before they put him there

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If you're going to suck in every single category, the least you could do is run when you get on base...

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On 7/28/2017 at 4:31 PM, Cmilne23 said:

 Does he project as a more middle of the order bat?

 

With his strikeout rate let's all hope so

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Wow ! Have all the Moncada owners gone in hiding? I know I'm getting exactly what I expected. Over 30 % K rate. Over 50 % his last 7 games and climbing. I'm about to wave the white flag . I've seen enough to know it ain't happening this year. I'm sorry but he is clearly not ready. I can't believe this will do much for his confidence. But I'm only a baseball fan.

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8 hours ago, Dylanfan66 said:

Anyone see those back to back defensive plays? Wow!

It is obvious most* people didn't see them. Anyone who did see them, realizes the talent we're dealing with here. Of course, most fantasy baseball is scored on the offensive side, and many just may not care because of that...I agree, wow is the proper word for those two plays. The thing is, both plays were incredible and just not that, were back-to-back....His skill with the bat, I'll admit, haven't been paying much attention because of the high strikeouts, a killer in my league!

Edited by Z06vette

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7 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

Are we looking at another Buxtion situation?

 

Moncada looks far more natural as a hitter than Buxton IMO.  Buxton is one of those guys scouts fell in love with because he's got sick speed, can cover everything in the OF, and abused really awful lower level MiLB pitching.  You have to keep in mind that scouts get massive hard-ons for players who are elite defensively at scarce defensive positions and sort of dream on any offensive upside.  Buxton has slow hands and a long swing, which are exacerbated by his leg kick. Moncada is just being exposed to some really good pitching over an extended period for the first time and is being exploited for not being advanced as a hitter.  I think he'll be fine in the long run.

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1 hour ago, Z06vette said:

It is obvious most* people didn't see them. Anyone who did see them, realizes the talent we're dealing with here. Of course, most fantasy baseball is scored on the offensive side, and many just may not care because of that...I agree, wow is the proper word for those two plays. The thing is, both plays were incredible and just not that, were back-to-back....His skill with the bat, I'll admit, haven't been paying much attention because of the high strikeouts, a killer in my league!

 

Yes, Buxton 2.0

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Moncada has been walking an awful lot which I think it great to see. He is still getting on and looks extremely comfortable on the field. Think it will be a matter of time before the hits come. Hopefully that time is this year. Definitely don't think he's buxton 2.0

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I own him in a keeper league and I've already said I wouldn't pick him up in a redraft unless I was desperate. I've lost zero faith in him. You can search my posts to see why, I'm not going to recap everything I've already said. 

 

His manager loves his approach. There is nothing to be gained by sending him down. There are MLB stars and regulars who struggle for their first month or two. I posted about 4 pages back that the White Sox are facing some really good pitching staffs. He won't see terrible pitching staffs until the last two weeks of August so you might not see him break out of this for a while. They'll probably sit him once in awhile, but I really don't see them sending him down. 

 

He is averaging 4.32 P/PA (Pitches per Plate Appearance) that would be ranked 10th in MLB if he qualified. If anything he's being too patient at the plate, but these are all new pitchers he's seeing. While the 4.32 P/PA helps his walk rate, it also is an indicator of someone who is striking out. He may need to let it rip a little more. He's probably worried about doing the 1,2,3 K thing. 

 

TL/DR: Redraft: drop unless you can afford the spot or are desperate for steals Keeper: don't go and sell him for cheap, he's better than his BA looks. 

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4 hours ago, lipitorkid said:

 

 

TL/DR: Redraft: drop unless you can afford the spot or are desperate for steals Keeper: don't go and sell him for cheap, he's better than his BA looks. 

 

Good insight here, but 2B is so scarce that a guy with Moncada's potential 4 category contributions makes him a hold even in shallower mixed formats. 

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