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Ian Desmond 2017 Outlook

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Just now, 96mnc said:

 

That's interesting.  5% is actually a significant drop.  I'm guessing those FBs became line drives.  Speaks to a guy that consciously changed his swing path.

 

LD rate over same span:

 

12: 17.9

13: 22.5

14: 17.8

15: 15.6

16:  20.6

 

Over the same span, his GB rate went from 47.6 in 2012 to 53.4 last year.

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12 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Haven't looked at Ian but what's his FB rate?

 

My observation of moving to Coors is that it lowers k rate, ups BABIP, and ups HR/FB rate.

 

I agree it's better for projecting homers I just wouldn't move the dial from 22 to 30. I don't really think Desmond has 30 in him in any park. 

 

And actually all 5% of those FBs did go to LDs last year, but he has been getting higher GB% over the course of his Five year run. The first two years were around mid-40s, the third year was 50, and the last two have been exactly the same at 53+%.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I agree it's better for projecting homers I just wouldn't move the dial from 22 to 30. I don't really think Desmond has 30 in him in any park. 

 

And actually all 5% of those FBs did go to LDs last year, but he has been getting higher GB% over the course of his Five year run. The first two years were around mid-40s, the third year was 50, and the last two have been exactly the same at 53+%.

 

 

 

Yeah, 300 is definitely possible now.   

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Probably my biggest thing with Desmond and his move to Coors is like I always like to talk about with Coors: the effect on pitches not the effect on batted balls afterward. Desmond has always been a fastball preferenced hitter. Career .446 SLG on 4SFB, .421 SLG on Sinker and .476 on Cutters. He also has been plus against Changes with a career .495 SLG.

 

In contrast, Desmond has a .377 SLG on Sliders and a .391 SLG with a .257 BABIP on Curves. 

 

Even take last year as a sample instead of his career:

 

SLG%

 

4SFB: .517

SNK: .420

CH: .513

SL: .299 (.241 BABIP)

CU: .390 (.250 BABIP)
CT: .462 

 

Those breaking balls are going to break less. If he keeps the rest of his numbers but improves on breaking balls.... 

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I agree it's better for projecting homers I just wouldn't move the dial from 22 to 30. I don't really think Desmond has 30 in him in any park. 

 

And actually all 5% of those FBs did go to LDs last year, but he has been getting higher GB% over the course of his Five year run. The first two years were around mid-40s, the third year was 50, and the last two have been exactly the same at 53+%.

 

 

 

 

Tao, I posted that he "had a shot at" 30 / 20.  Not a proclamation on my part.

 

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7 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

That's interesting.  5% is actually a significant drop.  I'm guessing those FBs became line drives.  Speaks to a guy that consciously changed his swing path.

 

15: 15.6%  53.4%  31.0%

16: 20.6%  53.4%  26.0%

 

You're spot on.  His flyball rate went down by exactly five and his line drive rate when up by exactly five. 

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4 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

 

Tao, I posted that he "had a shot at" 30 / 20.  Not a proclamation on my part.

 

 

Oh I'm not saying you were projecting it as likely or anything... I'm just saying for me it's pretty much outside the realm of possibility. Like anythings possible thats why you play the games ofc, but to me it's fairly outside the realm of possibility is all I meant to say. 

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With him gaining 1B eligibility could see him being a Goldy-lite as far as statlines go. Obviously more valueable at the OF position, but if you were looking to get some steals out of your 1B and give your team more versatility not a bad pick. Even better for daily leagues.

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32 minutes ago, OrangeCrush said:

Where is he projected to hit in this lineup?

Rotochamp has the lineup looking like this:
Blackmon
LeMahieu
Arenado
Gonzalez
Desmond
Story
Parra
Walters

 

It doesn't really matter though. I'm guessing Murphy takes over for Walter and is a better bat. If Dahl gets back and replaces Parra, that lineup 1-9 is insane. It's 2015 August Blue Jays good.

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Broken hand is rough.  Your looking at probably 8 weeks give or take, depending on the severity of injury, and another week or so in the minors getting some games in.

 

Its early, but might want to start making plans about not having him until late May/June.

Edited by Hellgrammite

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19 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

Broken hand is rough.  Your looking at probably 8 weeks give or take, depending on the severity of injury, and another week or so in the minors getting some games in.

 

Its early, but might want to start making plans about not having him until late May/June.

 

Where did you come up with 8 weeks. Depending on the injury fractures are usually a 4-6 week time frame based on how long it takes bone to heal

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I am disappoint. ;(.

 

Sporer and Collette for those who follow Sleeper and the Bust or Mixed Labr have Desmond and Price I do believe

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Ouch. What is typical in terms of post-return? Does the effects of a broken hand linger typically or are recoveries 100% immediately 

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It depends on whether it's a displaced or non-displaced fracture.

 

Displaced often requires surgery and for a baseball player who depends on his hands, probably 6- 8 weeks plus minor league ABs.

Non-displaced is usually a 4-6 week recovery with the same week or so minors stint.

 

Once healed it's back to normal, nothing lingers.

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Sucks to hear the news on Desmond. This would make Mark Reynolds a good late round sleeper pick for those in deeper or NL Only formats.

Edited by MJDrocks

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So he basically misses April.  

 

Are Tapia & McMahon still in camp?  Could do some sort of platoon with them Parra & Reynolds if Dahl & Desmond miss time 

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3 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

So he basically misses April.  

 

Are Tapia & McMahon still in camp?  Could do some sort of platoon with them Parra & Reynolds if Dahl & Desmond miss time 

McMahon got re-assigned to minor league camp on Friday.  But I believe Tapia is still in camp.  But I would think that he makes the team now.  But I can definitely see a rotation of Parra, Reynolds, and Tapia between the two open spots.

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While this is disappointing to hear at least he'll be a considerable discount if you haven't drafted already. I wanted him on my team badly this year and we don't draft for another two weeks (cool story bro: hate drafting that late but we do a live draft where half the people fly in for it so that's what worked) so I'll be watching his ADP to see where I might be able to grab and stash in my league. I too am very curious to see how far he drops because of this and how much his power may be affected when he returns.

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7 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

How many rounds to wait after ADP for DL stash

 

 

I'm going to take him in the 7th if he's there.

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22 hours ago, Wild Thing said:

 

Where did you come up with 8 weeks. Depending on the injury fractures are usually a 4-6 week time frame based on how long it takes bone to heal

 

I said give or take 8 weeks, since often an injury like this needs surgery.  If not surgery, your looking at 4-6, with surgery 8-10.

 

Considering its being reported he needs surgery, I reiterate I wouldn't expect to much from him until late May/Early June.

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