DerekQ

Byron Buxton 2017 Outlook

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3 hours ago, STLSU said:

Clearly you missed my earlier posts in the thread speaking of his batting stance and game plan.

I did miss the post you refer to

 However Buxton has changed parts of his swing several times. For example his ever-changing leg kick has been well documented. I'll believe his latest results are for real when he keeps his K and BB rates better than league average for a full season. Or at least a full quarter of a season...

 

And the comp to BJ Upton above seems spot on. At this point, BJ would be a fantastic outcome for Buxton.

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11 hours ago, gopherman23 said:

Buxton changed his approach back in June, which has correlated with his increase in production. He no longer uses an exagerated leg kick and he also changed his pre-swing hand placement. Since he made the changes he is only striking out around 23% of the time. 

Im aware of his adjustments. Like I mention above, this is isn't the first time hes changed his swing, or even the 2nd or 3rd time. And its not the first hot streak he's gone on either. At this point there really isnt any evidence that he's going to sustain this recent success, or that's even due to his most recent changes. I mean, I wouldn't be shocked at all if he goes on to have some really good seasons with solid power and OPS approaching .900, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he had a bunch of seasons where he has a low AVG and OBP and bats towards the bottom of the order with an OPS in the .700 - .750 range

 

What *would* shock me is if he turns into the perennial 1st round fantasy monster that so many people hyped him up to be for most of his minor league and early MLB career.

Edited by cs3

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1 minute ago, cs3 said:

Im aware of his adjustments. Like I mention above, this is isn't the first time hes changed his swing, or even the 2nd or 3rd time. And its not the first hot streak he's gone on either. At this point there really isnt any evidence that he's going to sustain this recent success, or that's even due to his most recent changes. I mean, I wouldn't be shocked at all if he goes on to have some really good seasons, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he had a bunch of seasons where he has a low AVG and OBP and bats towards the bottom of the order.

 

What *would* shock me is if he turns into the perennial 1st round fantasy monster that so many people hyped him up to be for most of his minor league and early MLB career.

 

There is no guarantee that the sun will rise tomorrow. Just ride the wave until he slows down or falls off there is really nothing to lose. Or he may in fact finally turned the corner. time will tell. But I have to say I'm a believer. If he continues to develop his power, we could see Soriano 2.0

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Not sure he has anywhere near the raw power that Soriano had. And you're comparing him to a guy who went 30/30 4 times in a 5 year stretch with a 40/40 season thrown in for good measure. Even if Buxton's power does continue to develop, its an extremely remote possibility that he has a bunch of prime Soriano seasons.

 

This exactly the kind of over-hype im talking about. How many guys in MLB do you think will go 30/30 this year? Or even 25/25? 

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4 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Not sure he has anywhere near the raw power that Soriano had. And you're comparing him to a guy who went 30/30 4 times in a 5 year stretch with a 40/40 season thrown in for good measure. Even if Buxton's power does continue to develop, its an extremely remote possibility that he has a bunch of prime Soriano seasons.

 

This exactly the kind of over-hype im talking about. How many guys in MLB do you think will go 30/30 this year? Or even 25/25? 

 

Everyone is hitting homers these days... The mlb is using a juiced ball, if he, like a I said, continues to develp the power he will be a soriano type player. It's not over hyping him.

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The ball has been juiced since at least last year. Probably for as long as ~3 years. How many 30/30 players did we have last year? 

And I dont think you really understand how great of a hitter Soriano was. He consistently hit over .280. His rookie season he posted a 20% K rate. In his prime years it was down around 18%. Do you really think that Buxton can reduce his K rate by ~40% and shave off 12 points from his K rate?? Seems incredibly unlikely to me

Edited by cs3

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The Soriano comparison isn't really too much hype, it's actually what a lot of the scouting reports (including Baseball America) said he was capable of.

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16 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

Everyone is hitting homers these days... The mlb is using a juiced ball, if he, like a I said, continues to develp the power he will be a soriano type player. It's not over hyping him.

He won't have numbers like Soriano. Your juiced ball point doesn't matter anyway. If his numbers were inflated by the ball to Soriano levels, so are everybody else's, which would leave his draft stock and fantasy value basically unaffected. 

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The Soriano comparison isn't really too much hype, it's actually what a lot of the scouting reports (including Baseball America) said he was capable of.

 

Given his 3 years of actual results, those 4 and 5 year old scouting reports are damn near useless. I mean, Soriano came into the league crushing the ball and not striking out much. Buxton came into the league and couldn't stick his first 3 tries, has shown nowhere near the power, and nowhere near the contact. Soriano posted SLG numbers in the mid .550's with ISO's around .250! You think Buxton is that kind of hitter?

Edited by cs3

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30 minutes ago, cs3 said:

 

Given his 3 years of actual results, those 4 and 5 year old scouting reports are damn near useless. I mean, Soriano came into the league crushing the ball and not striking out much. Buxton came into the league and couldn't stick his first 3 tries, has shown nowhere near the power, and nowhere near the contact. Soriano posted SLG numbers in the mid .550's with ISO's around .250! You think Buxton is that kind of hitter?

 

So his 21, 22 and 23 MLB trials out weigh his scouting projections? His scouting reports (best athlete drafted in the past 5 years when he was drafted) are the reason everyone is in on Buxton. Then when he teases you with months of stupid production (Aug '17: 8 hr, 8 sb, .330 avg, 1.011 ops; Sep '16: 8 hr, 1 sb, .277 avg, .936 ops) and you start to see the type of ceiling this guy has.

 

Soriano went 18 hr and 43 sb as a 25 year old in the MLB. In his age 23 and 24 season, he had 58 total at bats.

 

I like BJ Upton as a comp myself still. He was really good, then had that shoulder surgery. Some people don't think he was the same after that injury and that was the end of his elite offensive production.

 

 

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

I did miss the post you refer to

 However Buxton has changed parts of his swing several times. For example his ever-changing leg kick has been well documented. I'll believe his latest results are for real when he keeps his K and BB rates better than league average for a full season. Or at least a full quarter of a season...

 

And the comp to BJ Upton above seems spot on. At this point, BJ would be a fantastic outcome for Buxton.

He does not have a leg kick. He barely moves his leg upon weight transfer/swing.  Additionally being an in-season adjustment of this magnitude should be lauded.  Results are going to come through over time after his body has developed correct muscle memory.

 

How much do you really know about basebal, training and being an athelete generally out of curiosity?

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27 minutes ago, STLSU said:

He does not have a leg kick. He barely moves his leg upon weight transfer/swing.  Additionally being an in-season adjustment of this magnitude should be lauded.  Results are going to come through over time after his body has developed correct muscle memory.

 

How much do you really know about basebal, training and being an athelete generally out of curiosity?

He used to, and then he didn't, and then he did, didn't, did , didn't etc.... which is exactly my point.

 

 

No idea why you think that has any relevance, but played basically year round club sports from early grade school through my teens, and highschool and college baseball and soccer. Either way, that was longass time ago and LOL at thinking it would or would not have any relevance to an online fantasy baseball discussion about Byron Buxton's ex-leg kick.

 

How much do you really know about physics, fluid dynamics, and quantum mechanics generally out of curiosity?

Edited by cs3

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1 minute ago, cs3 said:

He used to, and then he didn't, and then he did, didn't, did , didn't etc.... which is exactly my point.

 

 

No idea why you think that has any relevance, but played basically year round club sports from early grade school through my teens, and highschool and college baseball and soccer. Either way, that was longass time ago and LOL at thinking it would or would not have any relevance to an online fantasy baseball discussion about Byron Buxton's ex-leg kick

The first sentence you write means nothing.  When you fail you try something different.  Every person is different and has a different swing.

I bring up athletics knowledge because you speak like a child and seem to not understand the game of baseball.  There is no immediate gratification usually which makes it incredibly mentally challenging.  

 

Moreso than any other sport IMNSHO, life is a bit like hitting or pitching a baseball. Sometimes it's hard to know when the hits will fall in between fielders even when you're truly barrelling the ball, or the stuff you are pitching is great that day but your ERA is still 5+.  Trust the process and eventually we will find results and good luck will find us.

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You proclaim that he has a "great approach" when every single relevant metric tells us he has been below average in every stat that describes plate discipline and approach throughout his MLB career, and I'm the one who's speaking like a child?

I assure you, I understand baseball better than the vast majority of fantasy players, and have a better grasp of both the fundamentals of baseball and sabermetric statistical analysis/principals, than most people in this thread.

Edited by cs3

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Well, you  must be an expert because you said so. That's funny.

 

I've been doing this a long time with a lot of success and it is built primarily grabbing guys like Buxton when owners like you don't see it coming. 

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2 minutes ago, Piotr said:

Well, you  must be an expert because you said so. That's funny.

 

I've been doing this a long time with a lot of success and it is built primarily grabbing guys like Buxton when owners like you don't see it coming. 

Owners like me? That drafted and own him in multiple leagues, still own him in a lot of spots, but am simply being realistic? And fwiw  Im not claiming to be any kind of expert. I'm claiming to be more informed than the average poster on this board (which to be honest, isn't saying much at all).

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1 hour ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

So his 21, 22 and 23 MLB trials out weigh his scouting projections? His scouting reports (best athlete drafted in the past 5 years when he was drafted) are the reason everyone is in on Buxton...

Soriano went 18 hr and 43 sb as a 25 year old in the MLB. In his age 23 and 24 season, he had 58 total at bats..

 

 

Im saying that I think his 860+ MLB atbats, along with his minor league production, definitely outweigh his scouting projections from when he was was teen. I mean if we're being honest, he never even dominated the minors, so his actual production has never matched his early reports. He hit well, but not great, and all of his hype was based on age vs level, and raw tools. 

 

Im not counting Buxton out. He still has time to develop as a hitter and improve. He could be really really good, and in real life his defense and base running are already spectacular. But for fantasy purposes, we've seen this before and the most likely outcome is that he never becomes the elite hitter that many people were counting on. Until he shows us a sustained period of exhibiting better plate discipline and contact, I'm not going to believe he's reached a new level.

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38 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Owners like me? That drafted and own him in multiple leagues, still own him in a lot of spots, but am simply being realistic? And fwiw  Im not claiming to be any kind of expert. I'm claiming to be more informed than the average poster on this board (which to be honest, isn't saying much at all).

 

I was having a little fun with you touting your expertise, but yes, owners like you who have become somewhat frustrated with a player who disappointed you in the past. 

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5 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Are you aware that BJ Upton was the #2 prospect in all of baseball? 

 

There are a lot of similarities in these two former top prospects who just ooze talent due to their tools & athletic ability, but struggle with plate discipline. So I think the "point of the comparison" was quite obvious, though I knew Buxton owners wouldn't like to see it. 

 

Do with the comparison what you will. It's more for keeper and dynasty owners to contemplate if they get another owner who thinks he's figured it out and they're willing to pay a king's ransom for the former top prospect in baseball. I'm very skeptical Buxton will ever be more than a .250/15/45 OF which of course is plenty valuable. But it's peak BJ Upton. 

 

Yes, I'm aware that Upton was also a top prospect. So were a lot of other guys who failed and quite a few who turned out to be great players. That still doesn't add much to the evaluation of Buxton.

 

It isn't about what I like. It is about what is relevant. 

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

Im saying that I think his 860+ MLB atbats, along with his minor league production, definitely outweigh his scouting projections from when he was was teen.

And I don't understand why anyone's arguing against it, either. That's a plenty big sample from the majors. Any claims that he'll be a Top 10 fantasy player because of what he looked like in the minors are irrelevant at this point. Us owners are just hoping he can keep up his recent performance.

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The scouting projections are relevant only because they show the type of upside Buxton possesses. A second half like this is more promising from somebody who was the top prospect in the game three years ago than it would be from a guy who wasn't highly regarded.

 

Many fantasy owners tend to see it the other way around. If a prospect like Buxton struggles for three years before putting it together, they will dismiss it. If a lesser prospect suddenly starts hitting in his third season, they think they have found some great sleeper. The only difference is the reputation hen they arrived, yet they allow past disappointment to cloud their judgement an they favor the less talented player. 

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And he is 23.

I mean I get he's been awful for a long time. And it'll definitely take more to make me anything close to a true believer.

But hey, if Justin Smoak can finally figure it out at 30, maybe Buxton can at 23-24.

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Let the haters in this thread hate. 

 

If you honestly don't see Soriano as Buxton's celing you haven't been watching. 

 

 

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We still doing that thing where people with differing opinions are "haters"? lol I thought that stopped in 2003. 

 

Saying he looks like the next BJ Upton and not sure he'll have multiple 30/30 seasons like Soriano doesn't make one a "hater." It means we're not getting intoxicated by his tools and looking strictly at the "hit tool" essentially.

I hope he turns into a star. He's got crazy tools and he's exciting as hell. Would be great for the game. 

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I thought what made most so excited about him as a prospect was potential 20-25HR, 50-60 steals type seasons. 30 steals seems like a let down projection. 

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