DerekQ

Gary Sanchez 2017 Outlook

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

read a bunch of yanks blogs.  think carp will dh some and play 1b some. sancehz will dh vs lefties a lot with carp at first base

edit: and ya what bigbat said. sanchez will prob dh a ton when carp gets injured

also, no way yanks sign EE or anyone of that caliber 

Carp?  Mike Carp?  Is in back in baseball?  I thought Greg Bird will be their regular everyday 1B.

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No he's got it all wrong. Mike Carp is going to be the 5th starter and play shortstop in between starts. He's also taking over as General Manager.

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21 minutes ago, TedStriker said:

No he's got it all wrong. Mike Carp is going to be the 5th starter and play shortstop in between starts. He's also taking over as General Manager.

Yeah I still don't know why that guy said Carp would play 1B.  Maybe he got his sea life mixed up with his critters that fly.  Gives a new meaning to the Bronx Zoo.

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20 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Carp?  Mike Carp?  Is in back in baseball?  I thought Greg Bird will be their regular everyday 1B.

 

9 hours ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

Bird or Tyler Austin will be the everyday 1B. No idea where Carp came from 

lmao.  hhahaha long day.

 

meant matt holliday.  im hearing he will play some 1b to back up bird.  austin might see some as well, but i think he may start the season in AAA

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17 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Let's try again... when would you take him in a one catcher league?

4th round....maybe 3rd

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4 hours ago, Magoo said:

probably 5th round.  He's like Schwarber last year.

 

Third round would be too early for me, forth I could do but I don't see him lasting til the fifth, I find catchers always go earlier than you expect 

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I dont think he lasts the 5th round in Standard leagues, I dont think he lasts the much into the 3rd round (if that) in 12 team leagues. Could easily be 4th and 2nd respectively. 

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14 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I dont think he lasts the 5th round in Standard leagues, I dont think he lasts the much into the 3rd round (if that) in 12 team leagues. Could easily be 4th and 2nd respectively. 

 

Two-catcher league maybe.  Is he really that much better than Lucroy in a non-keeper league?

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47 minutes ago, Magoo said:

 

Two-catcher league maybe.  Is he really that much better than Lucroy in a non-keeper league?

 

Not sure, but the hype will be there. I'm betting I won't be hearing Sanchez is the Gronkowski of fsntasy baseball for the last time.

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3 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I like Gare "The Bear" Sanchez, but there's no way I'm drafting him before the 5th round.

he probably wont be on any of your teams then.

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Sanchez won't last to the 5th round in 99% of leagues.  I doubt he even lasts to the 4th in most leagues.

 

He should not be taken higher than the third round.  In fact you could argue for the second round.

 

If Sanchez is the player he showed briefly in 2016 and I own him, I'm going to win my league/  

 

$1 OF (20th round or later for you draftees) commonly emerge into solid fantasy contributors.  How many 1 dollar Catchers?

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3 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

If Sanchez is the player he showed briefly in 2016 and I own him, I'm going to win my league/  

But there's no chance he's the player he showed briefly in 2016. No chance. No one, and I mean no one, repeats a 40% HR/FB.

I like Sanchez as fourth rounder and depending on my first two picks I might reach for him in the third.

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10 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

But there's no chance he's the player he showed briefly in 2016. No chance. No one, and I mean no one, repeats a 40% HR/FB.

I like Sanchez as fourth rounder and depending on my first two picks I might reach for him in the third.

 

His GB% was very high, I believe around 50%.  Any chance as his HR/FB rate falls, he can counter by hitting more Line Drives and Fly Balls?

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1 hour ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

His GB% was very high, I believe around 50%.  Any chance as his HR/FB rate falls, he can counter by hitting more Line Drives and Fly Balls?

In my opinion, 20% HR/FB is an aggressive, but not entirely unlikely projection. I'd personally guess around 17%, but let's roll with 20% and note that this will be optimistic.

Even with a 20% HR/FB, he'd need to boost his FB% from 34.2 all the way to 68.4 to sustain the same rate of home runs. Todd Frazier led the league in FB% at 48.7%, so obviously 68.4 isn't happening.

There just isn't a reasonable scenario where Sanchez repeats last year's production, at least in HR.

That's not to say I'm not a Sanchez fan, but he ain't hitting 60 bombs

 

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Yeah 60 is unreasonable as it has not been done in modern times without steroid-abuse.

 

But I think 45-50 HRs is not out of the question if he can bolster his FB% to 40-50%

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23 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Yeah 60 is unreasonable as it has not been done in modern times without steroid-abuse.

 

But I think 45-50 HRs is not out of the question if he can bolster his FB% to 40-50%

A FB% spike like that is highly unlikely, and even if he did have that kind of spike it would require a very high HR/FB to get him to 45. 35-40 is probably the ceiling

Edited by mysonx3

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27 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Yeah 60 is unreasonable as it has not been done in modern times without steroid-abuse.

 

But I think 45-50 HRs is not out of the question if he can bolster his FB% to 40-50%

 

Gary Sanchez is still a catcher. Very very very few hitters reached that last year with 650+ PAs as every day players. Maybe you could list that as the upside if he were the full time DH but I can hardly imagine him hitting 40 with the limited PAs

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Gary Sanchez is still a catcher. Very very very few hitters reached that last year with 650+ PAs as every day players. Maybe you could list that as the upside if he were the full time DH but I can hardly imagine him hitting 40 with the limited PAs

Yeah I agree.  Last year after he started off hot they used him as a DH when he wasn't catching to keep his bat in the line-up.  But this year they brought in Matt Holliday to DH.

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