DerekQ

Gary Sanchez 2017 Outlook

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5 hours ago, crotchcrickets said:

ZiPS has him projected for 499 PA's, 27 dingers, .255 avg and .283 BABIP.

 

I'll take it.

That's about what I would guess too....but I'd put his avg closer to .280

 

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6 hours ago, crotchcrickets said:

ZiPS has him projected for 499 PA's, 27 dingers, .255 avg and .283 BABIP.

 

I'll take it.

i'll take him 20 rounds later when his name's brian mccann.  

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4 hours ago, kirkcameron said:

i'll take him 20 rounds later when his name's brian mccann.  

 

McCanns leaving Yankee Stadium and doesn't have near the upside

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14 hours ago, lavaman said:

That's about what I would guess too....but I'd put his avg closer to .280

 

i feel like a lot of you guys did not watch gary sanchez day in and day out.  Yankee stadium is one of the best hitters  park nowadays and sanchez hits homeruns so effortlessly.

 

even tho they signed Holiday....he WILL dh some as well.  

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9 hours ago, taobball said:

 

McCanns leaving Yankee Stadium and doesn't have near the upside

 

Yeah but McCann won't have near the draft price either.  Gary Sanchez is going to be over drafted just about everywhere this year.  A player I like, but I can already see his mainstream perceived value is far greater than I think he will be worth.  So a guy I likely will not have any shares of this year.

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Just now, FouLLine said:

 

Yeah but McCann won't have near the draft price either.  Gary Sanchez is going to be over drafted just about everywhere this year.  A player I like, but I can already see his mainstream perceived value is far greater than I think he will be worth.  So a guy I likely will not have any shares of this year.

 

Same. 

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8 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

i feel like a lot of you guys did not watch gary sanchez day in and day out.  Yankee stadium is one of the best hitters  park nowadays and sanchez hits homeruns so effortlessly.

 

even tho they signed Holiday....he WILL dh some as well.  

AND....with his plenty of AB's....I think he will be closer to .280 than the original prediction of what...  .260 was it?

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On 1/3/2017 at 10:10 AM, Magoo said:

 

Two-catcher league maybe.  Is he really that much better than Lucroy in a non-keeper league?

 

In the current Rw mock he went at the end of round 3 in a one catcher league.

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I'm torn on this guy. He's a stud and I have him in a keep forever dynasty league. But I could use some pitching help. Debating trading him for a solid arm and then going with Wieters and/or Murphy at catcher instead. Not sure

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42 minutes ago, Hollywood42 said:

I'm torn on this guy. He's a stud and I have him in a keep forever dynasty league. But I could use some pitching help. Debating trading him for a solid arm and then going with Wieters and/or Murphy at catcher instead. Not sure

If you trade him, you might be kicking yourself for missing out on the next Mike Piazza.

 

Yes, I just did compare him to Piazza.

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43 minutes ago, Hollywood42 said:

I'm torn on this guy. He's a stud and I have him in a keep forever dynasty league. But I could use some pitching help. Debating trading him for a solid arm and then going with Wieters and/or Murphy at catcher instead. Not sure

 

I'd say just about any pitcher besides Kershaw or Bumgarner is a pretty risky yearly proposition. He'll get hurt from time to time, but even being very pessimistic, it's hard to to imagine he won't hit 20 bombs a year. That at catcher for 8-10 years isn't going to be better than every pitcher, but almost all, and good luck predicting pitchers for that long.

 

I would just not worry about catcher anymore personally. Even at this age for Posey, it would be really hard for me to trade him away in my keep forever.

 

 

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Just picked him up in auction dynasty for Seager straight up. Loaded at third base with Bryant and Arrenado, so I figured why not get younger and get rid of Seager on the wrong side of 30. ... Big hopes for that short porch in Yankee stadium. Joe Girardi said he's one of the best natural hitters he's ever seen. Considering Joe was a catcher, I'll buy buy buy. Welcome to the club kid. 

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The imaginary debate that I'm debating:

500 PAs vs 600 PAs

 

Source: today's Pat Mayo podcast, ~22min mark, Garion Thorne of FTSNY

 

 

The last young AL stud C that I can remember is Mauer. During his stud years of 2006-2010, Mauer got 600 PAs by using DH and a sprinkling of 1B (using gamelogs from FG). Even with the signings of Holliday & Carter, I still think both take a back seat on most Sanchez off-days. IMO, Girardi will play him ~135-145 games come hell or high water, unless he slumps bad (if they are remotely in the race for a wild card). Obviously a mix between C & DH.

 

I vehemently disagree with Thorne that the jumble of Holliday, Carter & Bird blocks Sanchez's DH ABs in any way. These 1-yr contracts can grab some pine when Sanchez needs a breather behind home plate and "rests" as the DH. He will, imo, get about 20 full days off from both C & DH like Mauer did from 2006-10.

 

 

Note: Joe Girardi's first presser is 11am tomorrow.

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No.  Expectations for him coming into this year are ridiculous. I'm passing and targeting someone like Realmuto--I know what I have plus there's 10HR-10SB I can bank on at catcher.

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7 hours ago, Seth0d said:

No.  Expectations for him coming into this year are ridiculous. I'm passing and targeting someone like Realmuto--I know what I have plus there's 10HR-10SB I can bank on at catcher.

Expectations may be ridiculous, but he had to do something to get those high expectations.

 

Even if he falls back to earth a bit, he will be solid and compete for best Catcher in MLB.

 

I'm all in.

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6 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I'm going to sit this year out in drafting Sanchez at his rich price tag. Will settle for the consistent Lucroy a few rounds later. 

 

A lot of magazines and sites rank Lucroy higher, but I think when it comes down to draft day, people want the upside Sanchez could bring.

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On 1/9/2017 at 4:42 PM, The Gridiron Assassin said:

Just picked him up in auction dynasty for Seager straight up. Loaded at third base with Bryant and Arrenado, so I figured why not get younger and get rid of Seager on the wrong side of 30. ... Big hopes for that short porch in Yankee stadium. Joe Girardi said he's one of the best natural hitters he's ever seen. Considering Joe was a catcher, I'll buy buy buy. Welcome to the club kid. 

 

Gary Sanchez is much more valuable than Kyle Seager especially in a dynasty. That was a steal of a trade even if it wasn't a dynasty 

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I'm a Yankee fan obv but watching this kid hit everyday was special. You will kick yourself if you dismiss his insane run last year 

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On 2/14/2017 at 10:35 AM, Seth0d said:

No.  Expectations for him coming into this year are ridiculous. I'm passing and targeting someone like Realmuto--I know what I have plus there's 10HR-10SB I can bank on at catcher.

 

I like realmuto too as a source of Steals but ther'es plenty of people who have been doing write ups recently essentially saying don't ever bank on steals for Catchers because they do just disappear typically 

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Swore to god I posted this five days ago. Good thing I wrote it in a word doc:

 

So, for my initial rankings I firmly and confidently placed Sanchez ahead of Posey in my catcher rankings and firmly ahead of Posey in my overall. This wasn't completely an indictment of Posey, as I was confident in a return to a .300 BA, but the power concerned me and I felt that Sanchez was safe enough in BA with much more power. I'm slightly less confident in the BA because of a few factors now.

 

Firstly, some more basic things: extrapolated over a full season, Sanchez's Pull% (54.1%) would place him behind only Dozier in 2016. He also used the opposite field at a lower rate than any qualified hitter in 2016 (15.1%). Sanchez also posted a lower than league average LD% (16.4%) and obviously has speed that one could fairly deem as “catcher level.” This combination of factors has really lead me to reevaluate where I think his BABIP will land in 2017 if no adjustment is made. My initial assessment I think was focused a bit too much in simply the hard contact without acknowledging the fact that most other factors point towards Sanchez having a lower than average BABIP. Now his low FB% in 2016 could stimulate a bit better BABIP but I think most expect him to elevate the ball a little more to stimulate the power, and I do as well. For the most part though, I’m lowering his projected BABIP in my rankings quite a bit due to what he did in 2016 in terms of pulling the ball.

 

Now here’s the thing: I would pull every single pitch too if I were hitting a homer on 2 of every 5 flyballs. So I don’t really know how to project this moving forward completely-- I think he’s going to use the opposite field more this year but it’s not something I can confidently project. Although he has a lower FB%, something I also expect to increase a bit in 2017, I could see him having a BABIP similar to Dozier if he doesn’t start using the opposite field more, which could drive his batting average down to closer to the .250 range. I think he definitely has upside there, but as of now I’m being far more conservative with the batting average than I initially was given the above factors.

 

And briefly on the power; I think 30 is really easy, more very possible. Was his power flukey especially given the amount he elevated the ball? Most definitely. But in that small park with the power that he showed in the small sample, I don’t think it’ll be very difficult for him to get up to 30.

 

Now I also took a look at some pitch specific data and some zone specific data. The main objective was to see if I could point to what happened during his more “slump” periods and then what may have changed when he wasn’t slumping. That’s more the zone stuff though, for the pitch specific:

 

The main pitch to focus on for Sanchez to me was the Curve. Sanchez seemed to not like Curves in 2016, somewhat in terms of results, but mostly in terms of simply not wanting to swing. Out of 316 hitters who saw at least 100 Curveballs in 2016, Sanchez had the 26th lowest Swing%. The curve was also the only pitch that Sanchez saw at least 21 times (4SFB, SNK, SL, CT, CH, SPL) that Sanchez did not record a home run against. Now, Sanchez did have a .292 BA against Curves but with a sub-.100 ISO (.083) and a .362 BABIP, I’m going to wager that this is more a mirage than anything in terms of being able to hit curves for that high of an average. Almost all the Curves that Sanchez did make contact with resulted in ground balls (78+%), which isn’t likely to result in a .362 BABIP again, and definitely will not help that low ISO on the pitch. Still, at face value, a .375 SLG on your worst pitch is not that bad. I’d project it to be closer to .275 with no skill improvement, but when your second worse pitch sits at a .318 ISO and .546 SLG, this is a very manageable concern.

 

So from my perspective, Sanchez understands that this is an issue for him. Just poor results can be explained away-- or at least argued-- but when a hitter is also trying to avoid those poor results occurring my trying to completely avoid the pitch type, I put more weight on it. Now again, if I’m lumping concerns into three categories being “Not really”, “Managable” and “Concerned”, Sanchez’s curveball numbers fall firmly in the middle, leaning towards the left. I’m not that worried about it. Will this be a weapon pitchers use to try to keep Sanchez from elevating the ball which he did struggle with in 2016? Absolutely, but it isn’t the biggest weakness and call me an optimist but I don’t see him repeating a 78% GB% on Curves next year.

 

The Zone profile information is much more interesting to me. By my analysis, I believe that what pitchers first caught onto and tried to abuse Gary Sanchez with was that he was getting a little too swing happy low in the zone. Now, Sanchez didn’t chase low and away or away and inside (i.e., really bad pitches), but between the three zones that are out of the zone low but not outside or inside, Sanchez chased 53.8% of pitches, albeit in a small sample. During the small target  slump I was looking at, Sanchez saw pitches in these three zones increase from 14.0% to 23.7%. The results were that in these three zones he chased 52.5% of pitches, Whiffed at 32.5%, and put the ball in play 8 times producing 1 single (0.125 BA/.000 ISO). The good news? From Sept. 9th to the end of the season he reduced his Swing% in these three zones all the way down to 36.5%, reduced his Whiff% to 17.6%, both rates markedly better, and perhaps indicative of his ability to ease off of this weakness very quickly that was briefly exposed.

 

So again in table form:

 

Swing% Three Low Zones:

Aug. 29th - Sept. 8th Slump: 52.5%

Post Sept. 9th: 36.5%

 

Whiff% Three Low Zones:

Aug. 29th - Sept. 8th Slump: 32.5%

Post Sept. 9th: 17.6%

 

Now he did slump again, but this was largely whiffs on high pitches and pitches out of the zone high. Considering these occurred in the last weeks of the season and the Yankees weren’t competitive, I’m more or less looking at this as just the dwindling days of the season, and maybe Sanchez hunting to pad his HR total before the year end.

 

So, overall I don’t feel like there’s too much that’s actually actionable in regards to the curve ball, but it is something to look for as pitchers try and develop ways to beat Sanchez in 2017. The adjustment is largely small sample so it could be noise but I think the differences are stark enough and my just normal confidence level in his PD and eye are such that I do believe we can glean a positive from the fact that he started laying off those low pitches more as the season progressed and got over that first slump that pitchers put him in, which is just general good news suggesting he may not get bulled over or bulled over for long stretches by pitchers. Making adjustments of this variety quickly is a skill I love to see. Overall, in leagues where Schwarber isn’t a catcher, Gary Sanchez is still my #1, but I am drafting him in my overall to be pretty much adjacent to Posey instead of a couple rounds ahead. The lack of an opposite field approach could be just circumstantial-- again-- based on the fact that pulling the ball all the time doesn’t really seem like a bad idea when you’re in the process of posting that 40+% HR/FB%, but it is the one thing that I find extremely compared to the rest. I’m less confident that he can be that .275/30+ monster and am more of the mindset that he either needs an adjustment or that it will be more like .250/30+.

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Thought I needed a few more Pictures after I posted that just now. 

 

plot_hc_spraySanchez.gif.895f8498f42aad7da55a274b0b736e6a.gif

 

Keying in specifically on the groundballs. Shifts seem far less common v. RH but if that persists there's no WAY they dont' shift him. That's a ridiculous spread. 

 

Swing% Pre Sept. 9th

Swing% Sept. 9th and Beyond

 

Keying in on the bottom three middle zones. 

 

Curveball Results:

Swing%: 29.08%

GB%: 78.95%

BA: 0.292 

ISO: 0.083

SLG: 0.375

BABIP: 0.368

 

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