DerekQ

Gary Sanchez 2017 Outlook

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He ranked 11th in baseball in Pull% on grounders, yet he hit .250 on grounders (doesn't sound like much but well above average for that split). He also didn't show a particular ability to avoid pulled grounders when he was shifted. Yet he wasn't really shifted very much. I expect that to change and adversely effect his BABIP.

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Hit his 2nd spring training bomb today. Went off Anibal Sanchez. Good start to spring.

Edited by Carlos Correa

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2 hours ago, Carlos Correa said:

Hit his 4th homer of the spring today. He's been a monster so far.

 

there are  so many Gary Sanchez  skeptics  that it's overshadowing his upside.

This dude is legit. His power is just so easy. He's listed at  6'2, but it's a big 6'2. 

 

prediction: AL leading 41 homers, .916 OPS -- 5th in MVP voting 
(1. Lindor 2. Trout 3. Betts 4. Machado 5. Sanchez )

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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Looks like one. Plays like one. It probably is one. From the limited sample we've seen arguing he's going to be a disappointment right now would be more difficult than declaring him a future superstar. 

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I see no projections where he hits 30+ bombs and this surprises me 

 

is it outlandish to see a  80/32/90/.260 line? 

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2 minutes ago, midlip said:

I see no projections where he hits 30+ bombs and this surprises me 

 

is it outlandish to see a  80/32/90/.260 line? 

they said Hilary had 99.7 % chance of winning the election...

 

i seriously think bird and sanchez hit 35 homers+ each.  i thought sanchez would be a 300 hitter, but tao pointed out his pull% is high.

still think 270 38 is very reasonable.  he has 4 dingers in like 5 games in spring training, and its a big field. Girardi said he might bat 2nd, which would increase runs, but lose a few RBI.

i think sanchez is a VERY special player

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Just now, jfazz23 said:

they said Hilary had 99.7 % chance of winning the election...

 

i seriously think bird and sanchez hit 35 homers+ each.  i thought sanchez would be a 300 hitter, but tao pointed out his pull% is high.

still think 270 38 is very reasonable.  he has 4 dingers in like 5 games in spring training, and its a big field. Girardi said he might bat 2nd, which would increase runs, but lose a few RBI.

i think sanchez is a VERY special player

 

I'm on board with this.  I want  both.

 

Anything .260+ would be gravy 

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2 hours ago, midlip said:

what's a target round to take the plunge? 

 

Been debating this myself ... when's the right time to take a shot.  I think part of the question is whether they let him play DH on the days he doesn't catch.  Can Sanchez reach 600 PAs?

 

His Steamer projection right now pegs him for 27 HRs in 526 PAs.  That already is a lot of PAs for a catcher (so Steamer must think he's getting some DH time).  If we get 150 games and 600+ PAs, then even the projection systems are calling for 30 HRs.

 

His ADP is 54 on Yahoo, 48 at the NFBC, 46 at CBS, and 57 at ESPN.  I think if you want to be absolutely sure you get him, it's gonna take a 4th rounder.  If you're at the beginning of the draft, maybe you land him in the 5th.  If you pick in the back half of the draft though ... I doubt he's making in back in the 5th, right?  Say you're the 8th pick in a 12 teamer, you're hoping he makes it to 56.  Will he?

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@JFS179 I just got him @ 54 in a 12team Yahoo H2H if it helps (Posey and Schwarbs were gone) and i feel quite good about it 

Edited by midlip

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2 catcher leagues will be even weirder.  I mean, I'd love to pair Sanchez and Schwarber or Lucroy at C, but that's going to require a couple high end picks.

 

The question then becomes one of opportunity cost: does the advantage gained at the 2 C slots of having Sanchez and Schwarber outweigh what you're inevitably chasing elsewhere by spending those early picks on 2 Cs?

 

For those top-4 guys at C, maybe it's worth it.  Schwarber is an OF with C eligibility; Posey plays 1b a lot; Sanchez and Lucroy can DH.  If you get catchers pushing 600 PAs, then that's probably worth the picks.

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On 3/14/2017 at 3:53 PM, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

there are  so many Gary Sanchez  skeptics  that it's overshadowing his upside.

This dude is legit. His power is just so easy. He's listed at  6'2, but it's a big 6'2. 

 

prediction: AL leading 41 homers, .916 OPS -- 5th in MVP voting 
(1. Lindor 2. Trout 3. Betts 4. Machado 5. Sanchez )

 

 

With those stats as a catcher, and the yanks make the playoffs, he would be top 2 in MVP (with Trout, of course, Trout is always top 2)

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3 hours ago, rich22 said:

 

 

With those stats as a catcher, and the yanks make the playoffs, he would be top 2 in MVP (with Trout, of course, Trout is always top 2)

 

that crossed my mind. that would be an all-time great catcher season. Can I revise the prediction to 1. Lindor 2. Trout 3. Sanchez ??

 

I'm a big believer in Gary, but 41 homers is super aggressive, especially considering his plate appearances will be lower than other players. 

 

If I could go back and redo that prediction, I'd predict around 37 or 38 dongs. The main thing is, I don't think last year was a fluke. I don't think Gary is Chris Shelton or Brett Lawrie.

 

as for the Lindor MVP prediction, he already has all the intangibles you could want-- and he looks significantly more muscular this season. Combine his excellent defense, with a rapidly ascending offensive game, and the fact that Cleveland is the heavy favorite to win the Central-- and suddenly he had an "MVP" feel.

In a high stakes gambling scenario, the smart money is on Trout, but I'm comfortable going with Lindor for my MVP pick.

 

Speaking of which, it would be fun to get a predictions thread going where everyone chooses their playoff teams, MVP's, ROY, batting title winners and all that jazz. If there isn't one already, I'll get to work on a template. 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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The hype is really high. Let's hope this guy produces at least half of some projections I've seen out there. He would still be a hell of a catcher.

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What # pick are we thinking about jumping on Gary with? Experts have him in the 50-60's, but he normally gets drafted in the 40's..

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Looks like Gary is slotted to bat 2nd to begin the year in front of Bird.  

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Another bomb today. Kid is a monster. My prediction: .290AVG, 38HR, 120RBI, .850+OPS. Got him in both my big money leagues in the 4th. What a steal.

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10 minutes ago, Phina11y said:

Another bomb today. Kid is a monster. My prediction: .290AVG, 38HR, 120RBI, .850+OPS. Got him in both my big money leagues in the 4th. What a steal.

 

I'm a Yankees fan but jeez that's ridiculous. I don't think he comes anywhere near the HR or RBI totals. 

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12 minutes ago, Phina11y said:

Another bomb today. Kid is a monster. My prediction: .290AVG, 38HR, 120RBI, .850+OPS. Got him in both my big money leagues in the 4th. What a steal.

 

Yeah... he's not hitting .290. He will most likely hit ~30 HR and have ~85-90 RBI.

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Something clicked when he got up to the big leagues last year, whether it was an adjustment or being around certain vets. From what I've seen in the spring and his time in the MLB last year, Gary is gonna be among the top power hitters in baseball this year trust me. Don't forget nobody in MLB history was hitting home runs at the pace he did last year. Other worldly power here.

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19 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

 

I'm a Yankees fan but jeez that's ridiculous. I don't think he comes anywhere near the HR or RBI totals. 

yankees fan too....hes hitting 2nd.  he wont get 120 rbi.  i dont find 35+ homers ridiculous though...avg might be more like 270 as well

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